Tuesday, December 26, 2006

 

Position Updates: AKAM

I love the AKAM story, but LVLT's purchase of SVVS's CDN division may cause problems for shares of AKAM in 2007.

Already, AKAM faces stiff competition from privately held Limelight. Now, with LVLT buying SVVS's CDN, I anticipate a two front war with price cuts and all.

Bottom line: If you already missed the AKAM run-- you are probably too late. Instead of getting in the middle of a potential price war, I'd stick with neutral operators like EQIX.

For now, I will hold my AKAM position-- but I will not add to it.

Comments:
Hey Fly,
Report out today that Apple is going to use HDMI in their ITV and new monitors. Have you you had time to check out SIMG yet?
link on Apple/HDMI:
http://www.macosxrumors.com/articles/2006/10/13/next-generation-of-apple-cinema-displays-to-include-hdmi
 
Broker why the late day volume in MVIS? Anything you can think of?
 
Lite volume move up to paint the tape bozo. No news just time to short another nice sized lot.
 
Go ahead, short MVIS.

It's your bank account, not mine.
 
Speaking purely from the peanut gallery, I've followed/traded SIMG quite a while with no joy. The issue I have with the company is that they never earn serious money - they come up with great technology (like DVI before HDMI), it gets used everywhere by everyone, and somehow SIMG fails to make any actual money from it. They never achieve any scale. HDMI could get used in every consumer electronics device in the galaxy and SIMG wouldn't break $18. (still 50% return, I know). Their business model is geared toward making their engineers happy rather than their shareholders, IMHO ;)

To test this out, satisfy yourself that the Apple deal by itself will create $.15-.20 per share earnings for SIMG in 07 and again in 08 (enough to give the stock a $7-9 sustainable bump). How does SIMG actually get this much money? These guys don't have QCOM's talent for extortion.

'course, if broker says "buy" you can throw peanuts at me...;)
 
I don't like any AAPL plays.

Reson being: Steve Jobs is a fickle asshole who changes supplier, quicker than Tapeworm changes nakes chick pics.
 
Anon and Broker a,
Thanks for your comments. DVI wasn't used in home televisions like HDMI is now. DVI provided no benefit vs component video cords, HDMI does. To get the best resolution and best audio the only way to connect to a HDTV is through HDMI. Everywhere you look, you see HDMI, whether its Blue Ray DVD players or PS3's. The I-TV media center device Steve Jobs introduced last year has to connect to a TV in some way and the only way to get 1080p and 8 channel audio will be for it to connect with an HDMI cable. One other thing that differentiates HDMI from DVI and component is HDCP a form of digital copyright protection that prevents the pirating of digital media such as would be streamed over the internet. I'll stop shilling, just wanted to get some insight.
 
So, you like sgmi?
 
I do, I just lack confidence in my DD.
 
This is a quality conversation I rarely see on blog comments. Good work fuckers.
 
I almost feel bad about all this free money, but not really. Sucks to be a bear.
 
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