Friday, August 11, 2006
Creed: One Last Breath
Closing Comments
Bears win.
However, it wasn't a terrible day for bulls, unless you were long ATHR or BRCM ;)
Also, after the close, XOM declared force majeure on oil shipments from Alaska's Prudhoe Bay. I anticipate oil stocks will run to the upside-- first thing Monday morning. Again, my fav in the space is CEO.
All in all, today was a typical Friday, longs were unwilling to hold positions over the weekend and shorts drove down the SOX.
My best bet for Monday is strength in oil/gas and weakness in the SOX.
What else is new?
At the end of trading, the following stocks had notable upside moves:
BMHC, ISSX, GROW, GLW, CYD, GME, EV, FFEX, HANS, KKD, CHCI, XNL, SHI, IMCO, ALJ, SGTL, STTS, SNDA, ERTS, THQI, IOTN, CLEC, USMO, DK, AL, CELG and WTHN.
At the end of trading, the following stocks had notable downside moves:
ATHR, BRCM, PARL, HSR, MEK, LMIA, TUNE, ERS, NGS, ZRAN, TSCM, MIND, FORM, LEND, NMR, BSC, RUTH, WCI, TOL, MLS, ACLI, KEX, PLLL, USEY, ESLR, NUE, X, AA, INTC, CAT, STMP, CKCM, JUPM, NETL, FDRY, CAAS, AUY, PSUN, UARM, JNPR, ANDW, LORL, ADI, FFIV, AKAM, ZUMZ, DECK, NSM, RMBS, EMKR, OVTI, AMKR, ONNN, OVEN and CYCL.
Have a great weekend!
However, it wasn't a terrible day for bulls, unless you were long ATHR or BRCM ;)
Also, after the close, XOM declared force majeure on oil shipments from Alaska's Prudhoe Bay. I anticipate oil stocks will run to the upside-- first thing Monday morning. Again, my fav in the space is CEO.
All in all, today was a typical Friday, longs were unwilling to hold positions over the weekend and shorts drove down the SOX.
My best bet for Monday is strength in oil/gas and weakness in the SOX.
What else is new?
At the end of trading, the following stocks had notable upside moves:
BMHC, ISSX, GROW, GLW, CYD, GME, EV, FFEX, HANS, KKD, CHCI, XNL, SHI, IMCO, ALJ, SGTL, STTS, SNDA, ERTS, THQI, IOTN, CLEC, USMO, DK, AL, CELG and WTHN.
At the end of trading, the following stocks had notable downside moves:
ATHR, BRCM, PARL, HSR, MEK, LMIA, TUNE, ERS, NGS, ZRAN, TSCM, MIND, FORM, LEND, NMR, BSC, RUTH, WCI, TOL, MLS, ACLI, KEX, PLLL, USEY, ESLR, NUE, X, AA, INTC, CAT, STMP, CKCM, JUPM, NETL, FDRY, CAAS, AUY, PSUN, UARM, JNPR, ANDW, LORL, ADI, FFIV, AKAM, ZUMZ, DECK, NSM, RMBS, EMKR, OVTI, AMKR, ONNN, OVEN and CYCL.
Have a great weekend!
Bulls are Trying to Rally
I am starting to get the feeling, the bulls are gonna try to mount a late day rally.
There is strength out there today-- in selective names in retail, internet, oil and companies with big short positions, like HANS.
This should be interesting. I feel whoever wins today's bull-bear battle will set the tone on Monday.
There is strength out there today-- in selective names in retail, internet, oil and companies with big short positions, like HANS.
This should be interesting. I feel whoever wins today's bull-bear battle will set the tone on Monday.
Fly Buy: TUG
I bought 1,000 TUG @ $22.27.
I continue to believe the tankers are a good play, considering the Alaskan pipeline is shut-in.
I continue to believe the tankers are a good play, considering the Alaskan pipeline is shut-in.
Position Update: ATHR
If any of you were lucky enough to short ATHR with me yesterday, I wouldn't hold it against you if you covered here @ $16.28, down 7.7% on the day.
With my money, I will continue to hold until it gets in the $15-15.75 range.
NOTE: The Trannies (not transvestites, transports) are getting axed today, down 1.7%. Other notable downside movers: Copper prices -5.5%, SOX -2.4%, Steal sector -3.4% and the Homebuilders -1.65%.
Update: Gold has reversed course here midday and went from black to red. In short, try not buying anything today. Keep light shorts, ample cash and hardly any longs-- with the exception of great energy stocks like CEO.
With my money, I will continue to hold until it gets in the $15-15.75 range.
NOTE: The Trannies (not transvestites, transports) are getting axed today, down 1.7%. Other notable downside movers: Copper prices -5.5%, SOX -2.4%, Steal sector -3.4% and the Homebuilders -1.65%.
Update: Gold has reversed course here midday and went from black to red. In short, try not buying anything today. Keep light shorts, ample cash and hardly any longs-- with the exception of great energy stocks like CEO.
Fly Sell: NETL
I sold short 5,000 NETL, between $25.20-25.70.
Cisco derivative play losing steam.
Cisco derivative play losing steam.
Quick Alert: Downside Pressure
I get the feeling the market will be taken out and shot today.
Be careful.
Be careful.
Fly Sell: ATHR
I sold short 5,000 ATHR, between 17.01-17.15.
Sector Spotlight: Prescious Metals
I guess the "terror" premium is coming back into gold, following yesterday's selloff. I own a small amount of gold, via GLD and I feel it can trade up to $70 by October.
Here are some standout precious metal stocks this morning:
NXG +5.5%
GROW +5.0%
TCK +4.75%
PD +2.8%
GG +2.0%
AUY +1.6%
FCX +1.1%
Feel free to leave some names in the comments section.
NOTE: Remember Que Pasa (QPSA $7.5) circa 1999? Well, don't look now, but the stock has been ripping to the upside, lately.
Also, I am quickly gaining lost ground on my two shorts from yesterday: ATHR and BRCM. And, my TUG purchase looks pretty good too. I own a nice chunk of that one.
Here are some standout precious metal stocks this morning:
NXG +5.5%
GROW +5.0%
TCK +4.75%
PD +2.8%
GG +2.0%
AUY +1.6%
FCX +1.1%
Feel free to leave some names in the comments section.
NOTE: Remember Que Pasa (QPSA $7.5) circa 1999? Well, don't look now, but the stock has been ripping to the upside, lately.
Also, I am quickly gaining lost ground on my two shorts from yesterday: ATHR and BRCM. And, my TUG purchase looks pretty good too. I own a nice chunk of that one.
Thursday, August 10, 2006
Haddaway: What is Love
Closing Comments
Well, I got manhandled on my ATHR short and quickly fell being on my BRCM short. However, I still believe the market will run into technical resistance soon and the SOX will dive to 390.
On the flipside, should the SOX bust through 430 on strong volume, I will likely cover my shorts and run naked through the busy streets of Manhattan.
All in all, if you are a bull, today was a great day. The semiconductors, retailers, transports and financials all showed leadership.
Energy was the big loser today, with XOI index down over 1%.
Tomorrow, I intend on buying some select oil stocks, on dips if possible, and possibly adding to my darn ATHR short-- which was up today because their biggest customer UTSI shot up over 12%.
At the end of trading, the following stocks had notable upside moves:
OATS, FIZ, URS, ASEI, LLL, SHI, CPST, FUEL, ESRX, MDRX, TGT, URBN, FD, LSCC, ATHR, IMX, RIMM, PXLW, TSM
On the flipside, should the SOX bust through 430 on strong volume, I will likely cover my shorts and run naked through the busy streets of Manhattan.
All in all, if you are a bull, today was a great day. The semiconductors, retailers, transports and financials all showed leadership.
Energy was the big loser today, with XOI index down over 1%.
Tomorrow, I intend on buying some select oil stocks, on dips if possible, and possibly adding to my darn ATHR short-- which was up today because their biggest customer UTSI shot up over 12%.
At the end of trading, the following stocks had notable upside moves:
OATS, FIZ, URS, ASEI, LLL, SHI, CPST, FUEL, ESRX, MDRX, TGT, URBN, FD, LSCC, ATHR, IMX, RIMM, PXLW, TSM
Fly Sell: ATHR
I sold short 5,000 ATHR, between $17.26-17.30.
Reminder: NEVER BUY AN AIRLINE
I know Jimmy went all-out guns ablazed bullish on CAL, about 13 points higher (ouch), but he should have known better. Although, airlines, at times, can be used as effective hedges against oil-- generally its a bad idea to roll the dice on the airlines.
Bottom line: Just because a stock is hitting 52 week highs, like the airlines were a short while ago, does not make them good buys. Lazy men shop the 52 week high list, instead of doing efficient research. In no way was that comment directed at Jimmy; )
Bottom line: Just because a stock is hitting 52 week highs, like the airlines were a short while ago, does not make them good buys. Lazy men shop the 52 week high list, instead of doing efficient research. In no way was that comment directed at Jimmy; )
Fly Sell: BRCM
I am selling short 1,000 BRCM @ $25.64.
Sector Spotlight: TECH
Perhaps the option boogeymen are ramping tech stocks up. Or, maybe its the "hedge funds" manipulating their way to fame and fortune. Nonetheless, tech stocks are running in a big way today and may cause some short covering.
Although I am somewhat bearish on tech, its worth citing some notable movers:
UTSI +13.7%
NCTY +12.2%
NUAN +11.2%
ADCT +9.6%
FNSR +9.4%
DISH +6.5%
RIMM +5.8%
IVAC +5.6%
CRM +4.9%
XMSR +3.5%
MSTR +3.4%
AUO +3.2%
Personally, I think buying tech in August in nucking futs. However, some of you out there are exactly that-- so enjoy!
Although I am somewhat bearish on tech, its worth citing some notable movers:
UTSI +13.7%
NCTY +12.2%
NUAN +11.2%
ADCT +9.6%
FNSR +9.4%
DISH +6.5%
RIMM +5.8%
IVAC +5.6%
CRM +4.9%
XMSR +3.5%
MSTR +3.4%
AUO +3.2%
Personally, I think buying tech in August in nucking futs. However, some of you out there are exactly that-- so enjoy!
Fly Buy: TUG
I am buying 1,000 TUG @ $21.44.
With the Alaskan pipeline down, the tanker stocks look attractive. TUG is dice roll. Moreover, tanker stocks GMR, OSG, VLCCF and TK should trade up too.
With the Alaskan pipeline down, the tanker stocks look attractive. TUG is dice roll. Moreover, tanker stocks GMR, OSG, VLCCF and TK should trade up too.
Terror and Oil
Please keep in mind, when buying oil, it is likely to get hammered over the next few trading sessions-- due to airline terrorist risk.
The crude bears are everywhere, already nailing the coffin shut on oil. Don't pay attention to those jokers. However, don't be overly aggressive by loading up here.
Bottom line: Oil will be under considerable pressure, near term. Take my list in the previous post and run with it when crude rebounds.
The crude bears are everywhere, already nailing the coffin shut on oil. Don't pay attention to those jokers. However, don't be overly aggressive by loading up here.
Bottom line: Oil will be under considerable pressure, near term. Take my list in the previous post and run with it when crude rebounds.
Defensive Zip
I am sick of looking at soup and soap stocks going up, enticing me to buy them. So, I have decided to block them out, most likely to my own detriment, in order to find something with a little more zip.
Anyway, I am seeing a lot of buying in Boston Beer Company (Sam Adams), ticker SAM ($32.40). Although, I do not like buying stocks at 52 week highs, I feel SAM may continue its drunken stupor up, as it remains a prime takeover target.
Also, The Pantry, ticker PTRY, looks damn cheap down at $43.99. As a matter of fact, I think its on sale. The Pantry owns and operates "Kangaroo" convenience stores near highways. Moreover, they sell gas. Damn good business if you ask me.
Finally, here are some other "defensive" stocks that look good: ALCO (citrus, sugar in Florida), RAH (a bunch of second rate food products), MKC (boring spices).
NOTE: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG @ $49) is now subject to a bear raid, getting ripped to shreds. I like the food, but I think the stock goes to $40.
Anyway, I am seeing a lot of buying in Boston Beer Company (Sam Adams), ticker SAM ($32.40). Although, I do not like buying stocks at 52 week highs, I feel SAM may continue its drunken stupor up, as it remains a prime takeover target.
Also, The Pantry, ticker PTRY, looks damn cheap down at $43.99. As a matter of fact, I think its on sale. The Pantry owns and operates "Kangaroo" convenience stores near highways. Moreover, they sell gas. Damn good business if you ask me.
Finally, here are some other "defensive" stocks that look good: ALCO (citrus, sugar in Florida), RAH (a bunch of second rate food products), MKC (boring spices).
NOTE: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG @ $49) is now subject to a bear raid, getting ripped to shreds. I like the food, but I think the stock goes to $40.
Sector Spotlight
The only sector I want to buy right now is oil/gas. I am sure there are some values elsewhere, but for now, I want to focus on oil.
However, because of the run up in crude lately, thanks to the dipshits at BP, I will be buying in small increments-- in order to "average in" to a position.
Anyway, the cheapest stocks, in my humble opinion are the following:
CEO @ $89.58
UPL @ $55.35
SFY @ $44.75 (nice nat gas exposure)
GMRK @ $30.90 (they move equipment and personnel on/off offshore rigs, think hurricane)
and longshot
MIND @ $12.10
The sector I am most bearish on is, well of course, tech.
To hedge my long oil investments, I am allocating equal dollars to short certain tech names.
My recent short is Atheros Communication, ticker ATHR ($16.71).
One of ATHR's biggest customers is the one day to be bankrupt legacy cellphone company UTSI. According to the last earnings report, UTSI represents more than 10% of ATHR's business.
Other companies that rely on too few customers for revenue are: NETL, MFLX, SIRF, RACK, SMDI and SYNA.
For now, I will continue to short ATHR, until it dies, or it hits $15.
UPDATE: A reader suggested COP looks good. I agree, but, with oil getting raped today, I'll be buying in mini-increments.
However, because of the run up in crude lately, thanks to the dipshits at BP, I will be buying in small increments-- in order to "average in" to a position.
Anyway, the cheapest stocks, in my humble opinion are the following:
CEO @ $89.58
UPL @ $55.35
SFY @ $44.75 (nice nat gas exposure)
GMRK @ $30.90 (they move equipment and personnel on/off offshore rigs, think hurricane)
and longshot
MIND @ $12.10
The sector I am most bearish on is, well of course, tech.
To hedge my long oil investments, I am allocating equal dollars to short certain tech names.
My recent short is Atheros Communication, ticker ATHR ($16.71).
One of ATHR's biggest customers is the one day to be bankrupt legacy cellphone company UTSI. According to the last earnings report, UTSI represents more than 10% of ATHR's business.
Other companies that rely on too few customers for revenue are: NETL, MFLX, SIRF, RACK, SMDI and SYNA.
For now, I will continue to short ATHR, until it dies, or it hits $15.
UPDATE: A reader suggested COP looks good. I agree, but, with oil getting raped today, I'll be buying in mini-increments.
Fly Sell: ATHR
I sold short 10,000 ATHR, between $16.98-17.31.
Wednesday, August 09, 2006
My Partner Won't Talk, So I Will Talk to Myself
He is a paranoid nutcase-- who doesn't want anything to do with this website. So, I have decided to tell you what the heck I am doing-- as fast as possible.
I cannot promise you stellar picks. However, I can promise: I will make an assclown out of myself, less than the many blowhards over at thestreet.com.
I cannot promise you stellar picks. However, I can promise: I will make an assclown out of myself, less than the many blowhards over at thestreet.com.
