Friday, November 03, 2006
The Used: The Taste of Ink
Have a great weekend!
As for today's trading, it was a win for the bulls. Despite the decline in the broader indices, momentum stocks were blinking green all day, as the sub 100 IQ'ers rolled up their sleeves to buy more fucking RACK.
Even though the SMH closed down, many Semiconductor stocks were on fire. For example: IRSN, INTT, TXCC, NETL, PLAY, LSCC, SIRF, COHU, IBIS, ACTG, SMTL, SIRF, CMOS and QSND were all up more than 3%. Furthermore, extensive gains were found in the oil patch, as violence continues to threaten supply. Within the oil sector, GGR keeps popping up on my daily screens.
Bottom line: If this is the worst the bears can do, they are in for a serious beatdown-- sometime very soon.
Fly Sell: SIRF
UPDATE: I sold short 2,500 shares @ $27.13.
UPDATE: I sold short 2,500 shares @ $27.36.
Disclaimer: If you sell short SIRF because of this post, you might as well (preemptively) sign up for public assistance now, since you will lose it all.
Quick Alert: Tiny Search Engine Stocks on Fire
Anyway, the following piece of crap search engine stocks are on fire:
And, here are some other search engine stocks that are not on fire:
ANSW, QPSA, TOMO, LOCM (formerly INCX) and IIJI
NOTE: It's not a traditional search engine, but Traffic.com (TRFC) looks pretty good and has cool technology. I can see it being implemented in navigation and GPS systems.
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, Cramer may feature your favorite stock on Mad Money with an unprecedented quadruple sell, and you may be staggered by your losses.
Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors
The numbers were great, but entirely unreliable. Therefore, I am not happy, at all, with the data.
As for today's trading:
I get the hunch a lot of people feel betrayed by the incompetence of the Gov't, with regards to the employment data. Furthermore, the market is a little top heavy up at these levels and will probably sell off.
As for the Semi's:
So far, they are holding up very well. We are seeing early gains in MRVL, ISIL, WFR, TRID etc. However, most of the gains are tiny and could easily swing the other way, should we get a bad ISM number.
UPDATE: The ISM numbers were better than expected. Perhaps the new rumor will be of rate hikes, not cuts.
The following Semi's have mojo:
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Benny Goodman: Moonglow (Live)
However, if tomorrow's economic data is really bad, they (bears) may get another opportunity to steam roll the happy-go-lucky dip buyer.
Bottom line: Today was a big win for the bulls and for select tech stocks like EBAY, and select Retail stocks like GES. If the sellers cannot take advantage soon, I will be forced to cover my new shorts for losses. Fuckers.
NOTE: After the close WFMI reported an ugly number and forcast. What does that mean? The consumer prefers to buy fucking iPods, instead of fresh, organic, high quality produce?
The Bears are P*****S
Frankly, stocks like SIRF, BRCM, GRMN and VCLK should not be going up as much as they are today. It is the cowardice of the sellers, coupled with the IQ-less of our money managers that is leading to a barely down day-- when it should be down triple digits.
Also, it's worth noting the Trannies are on the chopping block today.
My advice is simple:
Lock in gains or start hedging.
Fly Buy: MVISW
Disclaimer: If you buy MVISW because of this post, then you too might get "stuck in Iraq," effectively leaving yourself penniless.
Position Updates: MVIS
Basically, the company announced they linked up with a major Asian OEM, in order to mass produce product. So, one would think, MVIS may be on the verge of landing a major contract with a cell phone manufacturer or automobile company, like MOT or F.
In my opinion, $2.50 is still very cheap, considering they have a portfolio of disruptive technologies that may impact everyday life in America and abroad.
However, before I get ahead of myself, let's wait until tonight's earnings announcement to get a better picture of how the company is progressing.
UPDATE: It's now up 42%! Where is that guy who was mocking me now?
Sector Spotlight: Retail
However, considering how "assholish" the dip buyers are, I wouldn't be surprised to see him/her buy on the bad news. Frankly, that's what asshole dip buyers do-- it's their main function.
With my money, I am going to sell to him/her and bulk up on some trading shorts, like BRCM or any struggling retailer.
As for the Retailers:
It really is a tale of two cities. On one end, companies like GES, CTRN and ZUMZ are on fire. On the other, companies like CHS, FRED and WMT have as much foot traffic as a Florida Marlin baseball game.
In short, if the economy slows the Retailers have to do worse-than-expected. Furthermore, with all the hype and overvaluation in the sector, I feel they may be ripe for a good drubbing, or two.
NOTE: MVIS looks damn good today. Earnings or lack of are being reported after today's close.
The following Retail stocks have no mojo:
Fly Sell: BRCM
Disclaimer: If you sell short BRCM because of this post, your next cup of coffee may taste a tad bitter, and you may also see a dramatic reduction in your net worth.
Fly Sell: MFE
Fly Sell: DOX
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
Local H: Bound For The Floor
My reasoning is simple:
I don't want to be the last bull at the party, ever. I am not stupid. I see the market declining and perhaps a change in sentiment, so I reacted. If I were to just sit and watch my positions decline, then I would never outperform.
In short, I am at my best when I react to a shifting market, instead of riding it out.
So, for now, I will continue to hold the majority of my long positions and add a few shorts to the mix "just in case."
Frankly, I thought today's dip was different from the others, as the asshole dip buyer was absent from the action.
My current bear watch list includes:
MNST, SIRF, ATHR, RACK, CROX, LRCX, SLAB, ANAD, CCJ and TSCM.
Late Day Thought
Fly Sell: SIRF
Disclaimer: If you short SIRF because of this post, your wife or husband may fall in love with Bob Pisani, and you may lose your entire savings.
Fly Sell: BBY
Fly Sell: JBLU
Fly Sell: CTXS
Look Out for the Dip Buyers
If the market finds support here and trades up, the bears will feel dejected and likely cover their piddly positions. My money is on the bulls, obviously.
For now, the momentum is still in the bull court. Moreover, I have noticed nice trading action in the following stocks:
ENTU, FLWS, ZNH, LMRA, MVIS, EGHT, TWPG, MA, BKC, BSI, FMX, EXP, HYDL, OII, ZEUS, RTI, AG, MDV, CI, PLAY, ASTSF, GFX, IVAC, RACK, PAY, ATNI, BTM, TMB, ISE, ICE, DIVX and NNDS.
NOTE: Bob Pisani should do his "market topping" schtick in a fucking bear costume.
TSCM is Free Falling
Has Cramer peeked?
Quick Alert: Exchanges Strong; CVLT
Keep them on your radar: ISE, ICE, CME, NYX, NDAQ and soon to be merged BOT.
Also, I like the action in new publicly traded tech stock CVLT.
All of the analysts are praising the company today and will probably jerk the stock over $20.
Sector Spotlight: Gold
Today's weakness is fairly broad and has the markings of an ugly day. For now, I have no real hedges, except for a very minor position in MZZ-- but will consider opening one or two short positions "just in case."
Also, it's worth noting the Gold sector catching fire, while the broader indices weaken. That tells me, someone is interested in flight to quality. Not a good sign for the markets.
NOTE: Aside from Gold, there is strength in all the metals.
The following Gold stocks have mojo:
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Bobby Pickett & the Cryptkickers: Monster Mash
Taking the kids trick or treating. Happy Halloween.
I had to write that corny line, my apologies.
Quit predicting the end of the world, you psychotic grizzled bears.
Today is the end of the tax season for mutual funds. Therefore, expect plenty of tax loss selling. Aside from that, the market is going to bankrupt you sellers over the next three months-- if you're not careful.
Fly Buy: CTXS
Disclaimer: If you buy this stock because of this post, then you really are as dumb as your wife says you are. Plus, you will lose a portion of her future alimony.
Mandatory Scary Halloween Clip
Warning: This will scare you.
Fly Buy: MVIS
UPDATE: I bought 10,000 shares of MVIS @ $2.05
UPDATE II: I bought 2,000 shares of MVISW @ $.80.
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, your favorite baseball team may never win a World Series again, and you will lose an absurd amount of money.
Fly Sell: TXCC
UPDATE: I sold 5,000 shares of TXCC @ $1.48.
Fly Sell: FNSR
Sector Spotlight: Biotech
However, if the market does sell off, it will be temporary and an opportunity to add to positions.
Thanks to MRK ripping themselves off, buying RNAI (102% premium), the Biotech sector is abuzz. Frankly, I hate small Biotech. More often than not, they are nothing more than a loaded dice roll, which comes up snake eyes 90% of the time. For example: Look at the action in AVNR today.
However, I do know some people who make a terrific living, gaming the complicated world of Biotech. In my opinion, it makes sense to invest in established names, like: DNA, GILD or CEPH, opposed to the smaller ones.
I am sure many of you have the "next DNA" in mind. If you do, please share.
The following Biotech stocks have mojo:
Monday, October 30, 2006
Pearl Jam: Yellow Ledbetter
Considering the strength of earnings, coupled with high short interest ratio's, stocks can continue to go higher-- as everyone piles in ahead of the holiday shopping season.
Bottom line: If possible, try to avoid the earnings diceroll and catch this rising tide by buying established companies, such as ORCL, BBY, DOX etc.
As for me:
I have not been this bullish in years. Not much more to say, except Bob Pisani is a dumb fucker.
Fly Buy: DOX
Disclaimer: If you buy DOX because of this post, your job may be "outsourced" to India, and you will lose a lot of money.
Fly Sell: EQIX
Fly Buy: JBLU
Disclaimer: If you buy JBLU because of this post, Bob Pisani may make even bolder "market topping" predictions and cause you to lose vast amounts of U.S. currency.
Fly Buy: MVIS
UPDATE: I bought 5,000 MVIS @ $1.89.
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, you might as well eat 30 pounds of pure "Trans-Fat."
Fly Buy: BBY
Disclaimer: If you buy BBY because of this post, you will likely stain your favorite blue blazer (with the gold buttons on it), and lose money.
Fly Buy: CCC
UPDATE: I bought 2,000 CCC @ $4.81.
Disclaimer: If you buy CCC because of this post, good things may happen to your neighbors, but not you. Also, you may lose a ton of money.
Fly Sell: ERS
Fly Buy: MFE
Disclaimer: Buying MFE may lead to "E.D.," and major portfolio damage.
Fly Buy: CTXS
Disclaimer: If you buy CTXS because of this post, your guitar strings may break and you may lose a lot of money.
Fly Sell: KEX
Fly Sell: GLBC
Disclaimer: Never follow the trades of some guy on the internet.
Sector Spotlight: Drugs
Frankly, a Democrat Congress will likely be very benign, considering they will have to "behave" -- in order to run a candidate for the Whitehouse in 2008. For now, I feel taxes will remain low and the market will not be hurt by a Dem takeover.
The real question is: What sectors will do the best under Democratic leadership?
Under the Clinton years, excluding the fucking technology banana's, Drug stocks outperformed. This time around, I feel traditional Drug stocks may underperform, mainly because of the high cost of prescription drugs and the prospect of Chuck Schumer putting his boot on big pharma's neck. Instead, I believe Biotech and Generic drug stocks will flourish under the Dems.
Beaten up stocks like BRL, TEVA, WPI, PRX, MYL may bounce. And, Stem Cell plays like STEM, CCEL, ASTM, GERN, VIAC, ACTC may become momentum plays.