Friday, May 18, 2007
L7: Pretend We're Dead
Fuck the closing comments. I was up 2.2% today. Therefore, I don't have shit to say, fuckers.
Fly Buy: PMQCW
Disclaimer: If you buy PMCQW because of this post, your IQ may be sub 100. And, you may lose money.
Quick Alert: Fly's Technical Analyst Pep Talks a Beartard
He's fucking wicked with his charts and straight lines.
Position Updates: MVIS
Another hot accessory: a projector screen for phones, due in 2008. Based on a technology created by Microvision, the projector will plug directly into a phone and project color images onto a wall from 3 feet to 4 feet away. Expected to sell for under $300, the gadget could be used to show friends a video clip or to walk clients through a presentation. Says Alexander Tokman, chief executive of Microvision: "The applications for this are truly limitless."Click here for full article.
Fly Buy: MCHX
Disclaimer: If you buy MCHX because of this post, you will get west nile disease, this summer. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: CN
Disclaimer: If you buy CN because of this post, the Chinese stock market will crash. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: LNN
Disclaimer: If you buy LNN because of this post, you will be falsely accused of identity theft and sent to jail. And, you may lose money.
Position Updates: WGAT
I bought the stock, based upon my belief they would receive financing. Through my channel checks, I am somewhat perplexed by WGAT's arrogance and suggest taking a loss on this piece of shit.
I shouldn't have posted my speculative buys on the stock. I'll make it up to you on the next one. May I suggest MVIS or MVISW?
NOTE: I will be eliminating my position in the company.
Sector Spotlight: Internet
Aside from MCHX, VCLK, MIVA, PCLN, OMTR, VSCN, APTM and LOOK are all shooting higher.
Without being to wordy, I want to rip the faces off the MVIS short sellers. Hopefully, God willing, I will be able to do so, fairly soon.
Finally, FMCN's blow out numbers is just the beginning. These fuckers sell advertising in China. What do you think the 2008 Beijing Olympics will do for the Chinese ad market?
NOTE: BWLD. You all owe me your lives.
Position Updates: FMCN
|07:24||FMCN Focus Media: 1Q Ops in line; stronger 2Q guidance from Internet & mobile; 33% upside potential - CIBC (39.86 ) -Update-|
|CIBC notes that after the close yesterday, FMCN reported in-line operating results, as higher revs were offset by higher costs, while EPS were ahead on interest income and other. They note that 2Q guidance was materially better than Street, reflecting higher revs from Allyes and Mobile business, partially offset by inv. spending. Firm reiterates their $55 tgt (29x non-GAAP '08 EPS), implying 33% upside potential from after hours trading price.|
Position Updates: MCHX
The race for the online ad agencies has begun.
Thus far, TFSM, Double Click (private) and AQNT have been bought. In my opinion, both VCLK and MCHX (the only publicly ad agencies left) will be bid for, within 2 years-- if not sooner.
Considering MSFT just paid 13.5x sales for AQNT, a similar bid for VCLK and MCHX would put their stocks at $64 and $17.50, respectively.
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Creed: My Sacrifice
With MVIS shooting higher, I had a stellar day, up 1.1%. I cannot explain the sudden surge in volume or price. However, I will say, positive chatter is making the rounds. Hopefully, we will get some news soon.
In general, Energy stocks led the market higher, with big spikes in SU, JDO, TXCO, SWN and NGS.
Additionally, the Retailers did well, with gains in JCP, BONT, URBN and CROX.
Also, it's worth noting, the fat moutain bitches at CWTR did well. I will make certain to short more of that pig, tomorrow.
Finally, if you are scared of the market and remain on the sidelines, you are an idiot. The market is practically giving money away, while you sit there, fucktard style, scared to be a man and claim your stake.
Good. More money for assholes like me.
Fly Buy: FMCN
Disclaimer: If you buy FMCN because of this post, you will get hair lice. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: WU
Quick Alert: Balls to the Wall
Should the stock trade lower, he will fly to China and destroy several of the company's neon signs.
If the company beats the street and gaps higher, he will celebrate by dining at his favorite Chinese restaurant, where he will order his favorite dish-- Phoenix with no "robster."
That shit is too expensive.
Fly Buy: CN
UPDATE: I bought 1,000 CN @ $50.77.
Disclaimer: If you buy CN because of this post, the next time you go to a baseball game, a foul ball will strike you in the groin. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: THS
Sector Spotlight: Fat Mountain Women
So far, "The Fly" has a big appetite for raisin bread, lightly buttered and CN.
CN is one of China's biggest telecom carriers, who stands to benefit from possible deregulation in China's telecom industry and new tax reform. In short, the stock is going higher, fucker.
Finally, because I am so busy, I cannot continue this retarded blog post. Just know this, "The Fly" is watching MVIS very closely, while eating large quantities of raisin bread and guzzling gallons of iced coffee.
NOTE: I hate fat mountain women and will short CWTR, until the day I die.
Position Updates: MCHX
BofA initiates Marchex (MCHX 12.98) with a Neutral and sets a $15 tgt, based on a number of factors, including dependence on YHOO for distribution, general competition on a variety of fronts, cost of integrating and marketing OpenList, ad exchanges potentially diminishing the value proposition to advertisers and publishers and concentration of ownership while they believe the co could see upside in 2H07 on monetization improvements related to YHOO's Panama and post-integration of Open List.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
A Tribe Called Quest - Electric Relaxation
So, get ready fat mountain bitch, "The Fly" is going to drop a piano on your head.
Aside from that, "The Fly" had a muted day, with a paltry 0.3% gain. In general, the market bitch slapped the shorts into submission.
I knew the market was going to gap higher, when everyone I knew went short the market.
My friends are idiots.
Finally, I hate DIVX and love LNN and MCHX.
Off to a fancy meeting.
UPDATE: theflyonthewall.com: Marchex-MCHX initiated with a Neutral and $15 target@BOFA
Emergency Asshat Award: Eric "the oil barrel" Bolling
As I watched CNBC's "Fast Money" last night, I nearly choked on the potato chip I was eating, when Eric "the oil Barrel" Bolling recommended to his viewers to sell short GOOG-- because he fucking dreamed it was down 70 points.
Come on. Upon hearing this "asshattery," I knew GOOG would fucking ramp-- immediately. Look at the stock, asshat, it's up 9 bucks.
To make matters worse, "oil barrel" exclaimed: one of his buddies had a dream about GOOG being down big too. Which, in his head, fortified his newly founded bearish position on the stock.
I must say, of all the fucktarded things I've encountered on Wall Street, this tops them all.
This man must be eating hallucinatory mushrooms, prior to having such asshat dreams.
In short, making recommendation to millions of CNBC-tards, based upon a dream, gets an immediate "Emergency Asshat Award."
UPDATE: GOOG now up $12.
UPDATE II: GOOG now up $14.
New Card, What Do You Think?
Position Updates: CLX
Keep in mind, when putting a portfolio together, include boring names like CLX, CL and PG. They will offer asset stability, while allowing you to leverage off of them and fucking bank coin-- in smaller speculative names.
Almost all of the big U.S. companies are doing more business overseas, than at home. Recently, I read a figure that said KO and MCD were deriving more than 70% of their business outside the U.S.
As the "wheel barrow" dollar decreases in value, the big multi nationals bank coin off currency conversions.
In short, stay long the above names, fuckface.
Fly Buy: EQIX
Disclaimer: If you buy EQIX because of this post, Eric "the oil barrel" Bolling will have dreams of your biggest position going lower, then go out on TV and suggest to his viewers to short the stock--like he did with GOOG last night. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: MCHX
Disclaimer: If you buy MCHX because of this post,your allergies will worsen. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: CWTR
Disclaimer: If you short CWTR because of this post, the next time you look at your oven, fearing it will explode, it will. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Transports
As you know, "The Fly" doesn't have time to fuck around with tricky markets. I'd rather fall asleep for two hours in a tanning bed, than trade this psycho tape.
On days like this, I give thanks to my "calculator brain," who has enabled "The Fly" to be properly diversified, amongst many different asset classes.
As for today's trading:
During this roller coaster of a session, I noticed how hated tech stocks are. I mean, they are selling off, hard, at any given moment.
For this reason and others, I want to stay away from the Semi's.
Thanks to Warren Buffett's purchase of a few rail stocks, the Trannies are doing well, with decent moves in RAMS, ACLI and BNI.
Also, it's worth noting, there is strength in OSTK, REDF, JADE, SNE, TDK, MSCC, RNOW, TIVO, DELL, PALM, SIMO, SMI, INTL, KTC, BTM, XING, NTL, ALCO, ABLE, ERS, RTP, BOL, ABC, JNJ, BMRN, HAQ-WT, DNDN, CVLT, QXM and EII-WT.
Finally, with my money, if I feel up to it, I will start shorting that pig, CWTR. Or, maybe I'll just throw falafel at my servant/trader, while asking him to buy me some more RS and LNN.
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Linkin Park: Runaway (Live)
In light of the stalled NASDAQ, I feel it makes sense to start betting against the consumer. However, I do not dare go against the rich consumer; she will shop until her husband is bankrupt.
No, I will bet against the store with the ugliest clothes in all the Universe. That store is CWTR.
After seeing LTD warn, something clicked in "The Fly's" massive brain and told him to "go short CWTR," because they fucking suck.
If CWTR doesn't float your Cadillac, take a look at CHS. They suck too.
As for today's trading:
The Semiconductors led the NASDAQ lower. Frankly, I do not like the action in many of the high growth names-- and feel somewhat exposed to the "bear hammer."
In short, I have a 13% cash position and no shorts. Over the next several days, I will start selling my dogs, in an effort to raise more cash. At the same time, I will initiate shorts, in stocks I want dead.
In case you are wondering, "The Fly" has no reservations over leaving you "bull fuckers" at the top of the mountain--to die painfully via bear claw. If I sense weakness, see ya later fuckers.
Sorry, I'm fucked up like that.
In the meantime, I will put my "calculator brain" to work, in an effort to figure out if stocks like NYX are cheap down here-- or a precursor of a pending correction.
Fly Sell: CAT
Frank Rizzo: How to Behave During a Job Interview
Quick Alert: Oatmeal Bowl
Also, I like banana's, via CQB or CQB-wt (Chiquita Brands). I don't own any CQB yet. However, I am seriously pondering it, and more, while devouring my lightly sweetened bowl of horse food.
Finally, I do not like the divergence between the DOW and NASDAQ. It is my opinion, the NAZZ will catch up and punch the DOW fuckers in the face. But, who knows?
One thing is certain, the Semiconductor sector sucks. I want no part of it.
NOTE: LNN is milking those fucking farmers, down to the last bean.
Quick Alert: It's a Fucking Massacre
I mean, the bears shitters are weak and old, while the buyers are young, caffeinated and vibrant. No contest.
Today, with my money, I will add to my MVIS, FMCN, RS and MCHX positions. Aside from that, NTRI looks poised to run.
All in all, today should be a triple digit blood bath for the bears.
Off to take a nap.
NOTE: Please take the new "Fly Survey." Are you bullish or bearish on the markets?
Sector Spotlight: SPACS
Basically, they are blind pools of cash entrusted in the hands of proven executives, aka blank checks, who's job description is to go out and make an acquisition. The whole phenomenon started at a few small brokerage houses. But, due to its wild success, these type of deals have been adopted and expanded by the big dick swingers. Hence, the size and volume of these deals have exploded.
Typically the deals are structured as a unit, with warrants attached. In all cases that I am aware off, shareholders of the common have the ability to reject a proposed deal and get his money back, minus 10%.
Thus far, SPACS have been very successful and have been making a select group of investors money, hand over fist, for the past three years.
What's important to note is that the warrants are freely traded and often get bid up, in lieu of a deal being made.
In short, it's a form of private equity, which happens to be publicly traded.
The following is a list of SPAC warrants, which for the most part, have been on fucking fire:
CRB-WT or CRB' (Thomson & ILX)
Monday, May 14, 2007
Gang Starr: Just To Get A Rep
On days like this, I am far too busy raising new money for my favorite positions. I'll have you know, "The Fly" is highly caffeinated and unafraid of beartards.
Today, I was thoroughly impressed with MVIS. Furthermore, I am hearing very good things about the stock action and would bet one of my kidney's for one of your livers (notice the uneven trade?) -- the stock prints $6 by Labor Day.
If MVIS does not print $6, by Labor Day, I will reveal my true identity to the fucktards on the internets, via YouTube video of "The Fly" eating healthy portions of Buffalo Wild Wings.
Finally, ADY is looking pretty good. This morning, Bloomberg radio mentioned how thirsty the Chinese are for milk. ADY is your Chinese milk play.
Oh, don't forget FMCN. I intend to ride that fucker through earnings, due Thursday.
Late Day Thought
Thank you CNBC for sharing such asshattery.
Jeremy, You're Fucking Fired
Listen pal, you're not worthy enough to post stuff during working hours. For that, I am confiscating your fucking internet laser beam and banning you, forever. Or until, the Earth core explodes, showering NYC with hot, boiling magma.
In other news, Mother Market is setting up to punch your face off. Look out for the low blow--it's a killer.
Weekend Blogger Admits Stuffing Ballot Box, Resigns
Fly on WallStreet Contributor Faces Public Disgrace
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, May 14, 2007
Weekend Blogger "Jeremy" resigned from Fly on WallStreet this morning after confessing to an affair with over twenty of the blog's female employees and having devised an Internet laser beam to stuff the ballot box while he was sleeping.
The decorated Minnesota Twins all-star, 21, entered his guilty plea at a federal courthouse in Manhattan and then choked up as he proclaimed: "In my life, I have known great joy and great sorrow. And now I know great shame."
This crime marks his seventh felony conviction.The plea agreement demands that he must forfeit his 2000-acre "Boesky-esque" estate in Rancho Sante Fe, Calif.; $3.8 billion in cash; and a long list of prized race horses, vintage baseball cards, and extremely rare automobiles. The agreement also stated that he will cooperate "in the investigation and prosecution of Broker A."
At a news conference after his conviction, a visibly shaken Jeremy could barely read from his prepared statement as he admitted: "I disgraced my high office. I know that I will forfeit my freedom, my reputation, my worldly possessions-- I apologize for nothing, and I will do it again."
Sector Spotlight: Metals
This weekend, "The Fly" patiently waited on line, with other "Dunktards," for a period of 7 minutes, prior to being served. The idiot in front of me was extremely agitated and demanded a dozen donuts-- in a very discourteous tone. However, after finding out the donut shop was fresh out of "chocolate glazed donuts," which he repeated 20 times like fucking Rainman, he walked out of the store, without saying a word-- leaving the minimum wage retard, behind the counter, with an orphan box of donuts.
My point: People who visit Dunkin' Donuts are fucking idiots. With that being said, "The Fly" has decided, due to this incident and others, it is no longer acceptable to ingest large quantities of coffee, from Dunkin' Donuts. From this day on, I will exclusively shop at Starbucks, no matter how bitter and disgusting their coffee tastes.
As for today's trading:
Another market opening, more money in my bank. What else is new?
So far, I like the action in the Basic Material stocks, specifically ACH, CLF, BOOM, NGA, CTIB and RS. I can smell consolidation. It's in the air.
Currently, the general tone of the market is somewhat soft. However, I suspect the longer the indices hold up, the greater chance at a short covering rally. Look for late day strength.
Finally, I have been getting numerous emails, regarding the complete sale of MVIS from Knott Partners. All I can say is, Knott is a massive hedge fund, primarily focused on oil and gas stocks. Additionally, there are several managers within Knott, who take positions in aggressive stocks, like MVIS. Moreover, like in any fund, when a manager leaves, the new manager shuffles the deck to his liking.
Look, not everyone cares about MVIS and its Picop projector. Furthermore, from what I understand, the entity who acquired Knott's shares, via cross trade, is a bigger and better shareholder for MVIS.
Sunday, May 13, 2007
Nice Discussion, Now Fucking Vote
Enough of this friendly "I'm a fucking unconnected loser and so are you, that's why we all suck at buying stocks" comradery bullshit.
Let's talk about something important.
Are we going to fucking fire Mr. Jeremy or what? I mean, he is a nice chap, don't get me wrong. He knows how to communicate in English and says nice things about "The Fly." However, is this blog all about making friends-- or is it about kicking the weak and helpless down sharp edged stairs?
Let's have us a vote.
Weekend Blogger Book Review, Part III
So in the last part of the article, I expressed my own doubts as to whether the retail investor can realistically expect to achieve the same returns as a well-connected, professional money manager (such as "The Fly"). In addition to Broker, it seems that many of you are at least somewhat skeptical too.
Now that we've briefly examined how corruption on Wall Street and luck tend to make the playing field uneven, I think that we can safely assume that "the game" isn't fair-- there doesn't really seem to be any debate on that point. However, I think that we ought to appreciate that "the game" is amenable to degrees of fairness (this is the part where the arguing comes in).
In thinking about this, we might wonder if the stock market is as fair as say, a slot machine (where your results are based entirely on chance), or is it more like Monopoly, where, while luck is a big factor, a lot of the game is also a function of one's skill. (Way on the other side of the spectrum, there are probably some people who would even argue that the stock market is more like Chess, where the role of chance is virtually zero.)
I think that the stock market is more like Monopoly (poker seems like a good analogy too). Sure, you might have some "unlucky" rolls of the dice and end up spending a lot of your time in the slammer, but if you're good at the game and know how to manage your properties, your skill will be rewarded. A good example of how skill trumps luck in Monopoly comes from my own childhood. Back in the good old days, me and my best friend used to play on a "team" against my brother and my dad-- and wouldn't you know it, those guys would beat us every single time (although there were a lot of games that we almost won). Of course, I always used to complain just before we lost about how they "just rolled good," and then I'd overturn the game and all of its pieces into my brother's face. But looking back, I now understand that we lost every time because my dad was way smarter than I was. I guess that, in a loose sense, he had "insider information." The only influence that luck had was in determining how much we lost by.
On the other side of the coin, there are many examples of how the savvy trader or investor is able to more than compensate for the occasional, "unlucky" setback with numerous, profitable trades ("The Fly" serves as an example).
But enough about that-- I'm getting off topic. So let's get this thing back to the main point (can the retail investor realistically expect to achieve the same returns as a well-connected, professional money manager?). Thus far in the paper we have developed the following assertions:
* It's a fact that Wall Street is at least partially corrupt.
* It's a fact that people have lost, and continue to lose money because of the corruption.
* It seems to be the case that the average investor is at a significant disadvantage to the professional (since the money manager benefits from the phenomenon of "asymmetrical information distribution"). Luck also appears to ensure that the playing field remains uneven, but its role becomes increasingly diminished across large data sets. As such, skill appears to play an increasingly significant role as data sets increase.
Given these obstacles to the individual trader/investor, it would seem that I'm at a disadvantage. So do I still think that the stock market is a game worth playing? Absolutely. The way I see it, I don't have to be doing better than--or as good as--Broker (or anyone else for that matter) to be successful in the market. Over the long-term, if I average even, say, 10.4% per year (the geometric mean of the S&P 500), I'm still winning. Thus, we can confidently anticipate success in the stock market merely by indexing. [Notice that indexing also appears to help diminish the influence of "luck"]
From the perspective of the "success through indexing," the question of whether or not the game is fair seems to become a non-issue. Only now does it become clear that we've been asking the wrong question all along! It seems that a much better question to ask would be, "is indexing the best way to make money in the stock market, and if isn't, then what is?" At first glance, my reaction is that indexing is not the best way to make money. But it doesn't seem obvious to me what that "better way" would be. To say that the "better way" is active portfolio management seems too vague-- we need something more specific, something such as a trading system that has a set of finite, rigid and well-defined rules. This is what I believe should be our new focus-- finding a method that exceeds the profitability of indexing.
In addition, the question itself appears to be problematic since it's hopelessly vague. As it happens, there are lots of different ways that we can pose this question (depending on how we characterize the terms within it). As a result, our answer (if we can even generate one at all) will change as our definition of the question changes.
In conclusion, I just want to say that this whole topic is much more complex than I thought that it was when I started writing this paper, and it seems to be raising more questions than answers-- which I think is still a really good thing. We could go on and on about this and talk about it much more, but for the sake of keeping things manageable, I'm afraid that I'll have to cut it short here (although there is plenty of more room for discussion in the "posting" area).
For next time, I'll try to tackle something a little less philosophical and a bit more practical. I also intend to have the entire article finished at least a week prior to its due date such that the structure "flows" and is more coherent (as this article tended to wander and drag us into a subject that is simply beyond the scope of just one weekend).