Saturday, November 10, 2007
BUSINESS CYCLES
There will probably be dissention; however, the business cycle is alive and well. Much work was completed by Schumpeter, Kondratieff, Irving Fisher and numerous others. Having being made aware previously the limited attention span of the average Fly reader, I shall dispense with any further references and cut directly to the chase.
The business cycle has an important bearing upon financial markets and the stock market in particular.
Cycle Stage……..Recession…..Early Recovery……Recovery……Early Recession
Consumer………..Reviving…….Rising……………..Declining………Falling
Industrial………..Bottoming……Rising……………Flat………………Falling
Interest………….Falling………..Bottoming…………Rising…………Peaking
Yield Curve……..
Early expansion
Technology, Transportation
Middle expansion
Capital Goods, Basic Materials
Late expansion
Basic Materials, Energy, Consumer Staples
Early Contraction
Utilities, Financials
Late Contraction
Financials, Consumer cyclicals
Timeframe…………………52weeks…….YTD……..3months……..1month
Technology……………….12.72%..........11.6%...........1.4%...............[-6.1%]
Financials……………..…[-14.6%]……. [-17.6%]…..[-9.6%]……...[-15.2%]
Health Care………………7.5%................4.8%.............2.4%..............[-3.9%]
Industrials…………………13%................11.2%..........[-0.2%]……..[-7.1%]
Consumer Staples………….9.2%..............6.8%............2.3%...............[-0.4%]
Energy…………………….28.5%.............27%..............10.6%.............[-1.8%]
Consumer Discretionary….[-8.5%]……...[-11.3%]…...[-7%]………..[-10.3%]
Utilities…………………...17.4%..............14%..............5.4%..............1.4%
Materials………………….23%.................19.6%...........6.4%..............[-4.3%]
With the odd exception, we can observe that the theoretical business cycle correlates reasonably well with reality.
Energy and Utilities have been the strongest which we would expect at this stage of the business cycle which is the late expansion phase.
Financials are currently the topic-de-jour and are in point of fact indicating that the market may well be entering the early contraction phase. Consumer cyclicals, or discretionary are also showing confirmatory movement.
Therefore we can add the sector analysis to the overall market analysis of the first post and reassess the picture once again.
Jog on
grant
INTRODUCTION
More Ducati Fun.
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“The Fly of Wallstreet” has as you now know, announced his retirement from the blogging career that ran so successfully for all these months.
Why, was the arch-nemesis, “The Ducati” selected to provide possibly the only weekend blogging spot?
Possibly due to the fact that my much maligned selection on my debut and concurrently final appearance to date, was that fine performer TELOZ that prior to Fridays debacle, returned in excess of 100% in a challenging environment.
It is now my assigned duty to shed some light on the current market machinations, while possibly highlighting an opportunity that will provide a margin of safety for a longer term holding period in which we try to catch a secular trend.
This therefore is the intention. However, let me first digress. “The Fly” while injecting a certain level of gutter humour and wit to his blogging duties, also provided some interesting perspectives on the art of investing.
I have noted in the comments section, some of the detractors have criticized the methodology employed as “momentum investing” and this I suppose could be fairly classified as a form of “CANSLIM” or “GARP”.
While I believe that there is an element of truth to those accusations, they fall short of the reality. The reality is the analysis of the story. It is of course the story of MVIS that both enchanted and captivated; the story of the fat, beer guzzling, wing consuming, red neck southern fried gentleman that entertained in BWLD.
The “story” is in point of fact also known and referred to as a “Catalyst”. The catalyst is a vital, possibly the vital component, within this style of momentum/value based trading. There are some other posters in the comments section that display skills in this direction, they however lack the panache, charisma, and devil-may-care attitude generated on an almost daily basis by “Sir Fly”
Therefore the qualitative research provided identifying these catalysts is by no means easy or forthright to elicit. However, via quantitative research, we may find potential targets and ruminate upon their qualitative underpinnings. This will be the “homage” paid to “Sir Fly” as he leaves the blogosphere.
Jog on
grant
Enter Stage: Ducati
BREAKING QUICK ALERT NEWS: Ducati Has Returned!
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In a weird twist of ironic irony, "The Fly" invited Ducati to be his last weekend blogger--feeling he 'owed his readers that much fun.'
However, due to the old nature of Ducati's brain, he has been unable to create a blogger account, accusing google of having some sort of conspiracy against him.
So, he (Ducati) has emailed me his 'weekend work,' for me to post ("enjoy"):
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In a weird twist of ironic irony, "The Fly" invited Ducati to be his last weekend blogger--feeling he 'owed his readers that much fun.'
However, due to the old nature of Ducati's brain, he has been unable to create a blogger account, accusing google of having some sort of conspiracy against him.
So, he (Ducati) has emailed me his 'weekend work,' for me to post ("enjoy"):
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With the current turmoil in the market, generated primarily by the Financials and sub-prime concerns, where is the market?
If we compare the 1982 level with the bottom in 2003 and the current position [as of September] in 2007 what conclusions can be drawn?
We shall start with a macro-analysis of the market and proceed to a sector analysis to see if any clear conclusions emerge from the analysis.
Year……………………………1982………………2003……………….2007
Closing Price…………………109.40………………837.03…………..1497.12
Earned in year………………...$13.97………………29.41……………. $86.03
Dividend …………………..…$6.82………………$16.22……………. $27.06
Bond Yield……………….….14.30%........................3.90%.....................4.72%
PPI………………………..….100.4…………………137.6……………174.5
Gold…………………………$350…………………$340……………. $841.10
Oil…………………………..$31.56………………..$35.87…………...$95.46
GDP………………………...$3186.0………………$1075.6…………. $14200.0
Ratios;
P/E…………………………..7.83……………..…28.46………….…….17.40
Earnings Yield…………..…12.8%........................3.5%...........................5.7%
Dividend Yield……………...6.2%........................1.9%...........................1.8%
Stock/Bond Yield…………...0.89…………….…0.74…………………..1.2
Dividend/Bond Yield……….0.43…………….…0.40…………………..0.37
Gold/Price………………….3.19……………….0.40…………………..0.56
Oil/Price……………………0.28……………….0.04…………………..0.56
Price/GDP………………….0.03……………….0.77…………………..0.11
I have my own conclusions regarding the data. Of course I also have my own bias”, thus any interpretation of the data will be tinged with that bias.
Therefore, prior to any formal analysis, I shall simply present the data for you to mull over and draw conclusions.
I shall in due course provide an analysis of the pertinent information that can be elicited and possibly some opinion may emerge from the comments section, time will, as always, reveal all.
Jog on
grant
Friday, November 09, 2007
Quick Reminder
Always remember, "The Fly" is smarter than you, despite not participating in future 'super-cycles.'
Snow Patrol - Wow
Closing Comments: Wrong Again!
Oh boy, worst case scenario of a close.
Ironically, remember to tune in for "The Fly's" funeral, live on Monday, at 10:00am.
However, before that, be sure to visit this weekend. I have a special guest weekend blogger, scheduled to muck things up a bit.
As for today:
The financials did well, while tech sucked balls.
The downward momentum is staggering, and the margin calls are piling in.
Unfortunately, because of this close, we are set up for a swift thrashing Monday morning--around 10:00am.
Again,irony.
In closing, "The Fly" has like two stocks worth looking at, as of now: WBD and CLX.
We're entirely fucked. Enjoy the weekend.
NOTE: Stocks are for asshats.
NOTE II: BEHOLD!
Ironically, remember to tune in for "The Fly's" funeral, live on Monday, at 10:00am.
However, before that, be sure to visit this weekend. I have a special guest weekend blogger, scheduled to muck things up a bit.
As for today:
The financials did well, while tech sucked balls.
The downward momentum is staggering, and the margin calls are piling in.
Unfortunately, because of this close, we are set up for a swift thrashing Monday morning--around 10:00am.
Again,irony.
In closing, "The Fly" has like two stocks worth looking at, as of now: WBD and CLX.
We're entirely fucked. Enjoy the weekend.
NOTE: Stocks are for asshats.
NOTE II: BEHOLD!
Fix Bayonets
How 'bout a Late Day Rally?
Fly Buys: RIMM, VMW, VMI, BWLD, GRMN
Ok, here goes:
I'm taking some risk here, betting we do not crash through the floor boards. Believe me, talking to people, everyone is nervous, thinking the "end is near."
So, with negativity at a fresh high, I want to be long some of the damaged leadership stocks, in anticipation of a leg up.
I could be wrong and do not recommend taking the same approach. However, buying leadership on these types of dips have proven, over and over, to be very timely and profitable trades.
As for my CFC position:
I intend to blow that fucker out on Monday or Tuesday.
NOTE: It's the strength in the financials that has given me confidence to put wheel barrow dollars to work.
NOTE II: BWLD @ $28.39, VMW @ $88.65, VMI @ $81.02, RIMM @ $114.35, GRMN @ $ 87.13.
I'm taking some risk here, betting we do not crash through the floor boards. Believe me, talking to people, everyone is nervous, thinking the "end is near."
So, with negativity at a fresh high, I want to be long some of the damaged leadership stocks, in anticipation of a leg up.
I could be wrong and do not recommend taking the same approach. However, buying leadership on these types of dips have proven, over and over, to be very timely and profitable trades.
As for my CFC position:
I intend to blow that fucker out on Monday or Tuesday.
NOTE: It's the strength in the financials that has given me confidence to put wheel barrow dollars to work.
NOTE II: BWLD @ $28.39, VMW @ $88.65, VMI @ $81.02, RIMM @ $114.35, GRMN @ $ 87.13.
Fly Message to Internet Fucktards
Quick Alert: Off to Dunkin' Donuts
"Kill the White People"
Fly Buy: VMW
I bought 2,000 VMW @ $88.53.
Disclaimer: If you buy VMW because of this post, you will run out of money. And, you may lose money.
Disclaimer: If you buy VMW because of this post, you will run out of money. And, you may lose money.
The Market Sucks; But We're Still Going North
Perhaps "The Fly" is being delusional. However, this sell off feels a little "old hat."
Crazy rallies and knife to the chest drops get played out fast. After all, Thanksgiving is coming.
That's right, I'm basing my entire investment philosophy around a day, when fat fucks stuff their faces with greasy turkey legs and candied yams.
Not, but seriously, I'm too busy for this sell off shit. Will someone please inform the appropriate parties, "The Fly" would like the market to go higher again, so that he could make fun of his bearish friends?
Thanks in advance.
As you can see, the market is cutting through year to date gains, like a hot knife through goat cheese. All of the leadership stocks are being pimp smacked, like little bitches.
Quite frankly, as opposed to being "unfrank," the long term prospects for this market look dire, as they always do during times of duress.
What to do?
The new double inverse China etf, FXP, looks like fun. But, it's probably too late to be shorting down here.
Shorting down here is equal to carrying a sign in Beijing, which reads: "The Communist Government of China Can go Fuck Themselves, Every Which Way, But Loose."
That shit would be a bad idea, as is shorting stocks, fucktard style, down here.
The next move is up, thanks to the wonderful day of gluttony.
Good times.
NOTE: HANS upgraded today, $55 price target applied.
Crazy rallies and knife to the chest drops get played out fast. After all, Thanksgiving is coming.
That's right, I'm basing my entire investment philosophy around a day, when fat fucks stuff their faces with greasy turkey legs and candied yams.
Not, but seriously, I'm too busy for this sell off shit. Will someone please inform the appropriate parties, "The Fly" would like the market to go higher again, so that he could make fun of his bearish friends?
Thanks in advance.
As you can see, the market is cutting through year to date gains, like a hot knife through goat cheese. All of the leadership stocks are being pimp smacked, like little bitches.
Quite frankly, as opposed to being "unfrank," the long term prospects for this market look dire, as they always do during times of duress.
What to do?
The new double inverse China etf, FXP, looks like fun. But, it's probably too late to be shorting down here.
Shorting down here is equal to carrying a sign in Beijing, which reads: "The Communist Government of China Can go Fuck Themselves, Every Which Way, But Loose."
That shit would be a bad idea, as is shorting stocks, fucktard style, down here.
The next move is up, thanks to the wonderful day of gluttony.
Good times.
NOTE: HANS upgraded today, $55 price target applied.
Early Morning Thought
Stocks are for asshats.
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Fly Flashback: Topping Patterns
Technical analysis is a wonderful way to combine both laziness and ignorance. Ask Warren Buffett.
However, from time to time, "The Fly" looks at a few, while eating crunchy dill pickles.
At any rate, back on 10/3, I warned you, and myself, of topping out formations--during the 7th week of a run.
DON'T TRY TO REFUTE THIS SHIT.
The data was derived from multiple "bubbly runs" in speculative sectors, like ethanol, internets, nanotech, etc.
The lesson to be learned: stick with your disciplines and try not to fall into the "this time may be different" fucktarded type of mentality.
Had I listened, I would have sold short Chinese stocks, instead of buying them--cupfucker style.
However, from time to time, "The Fly" looks at a few, while eating crunchy dill pickles.
At any rate, back on 10/3, I warned you, and myself, of topping out formations--during the 7th week of a run.
DON'T TRY TO REFUTE THIS SHIT.
The data was derived from multiple "bubbly runs" in speculative sectors, like ethanol, internets, nanotech, etc.
The lesson to be learned: stick with your disciplines and try not to fall into the "this time may be different" fucktarded type of mentality.
Had I listened, I would have sold short Chinese stocks, instead of buying them--cupfucker style.
Chris Brown - Kiss Kiss
Closing Comments
We can't go down forever.
Call me crazy, but for a trade, I want to be long the financials, specifically CFC, MER and MS.
Also, the sell off in HANS is way over done. Luckily, for me, I bought some today, near $39.
It's hard to ignore stocks that just won't go down, like POT, MON, OPY and all of the solar fuckers. However, I warn you, all trends break--at some point.
My game plan is simple:
Milk the ensuing short covering rally, while actively setting up short sales--once the rally fades.
My best guess, we run until Thanksgiving, then slide until Christmas.
Top pick: VMI.
Call me crazy, but for a trade, I want to be long the financials, specifically CFC, MER and MS.
Also, the sell off in HANS is way over done. Luckily, for me, I bought some today, near $39.
It's hard to ignore stocks that just won't go down, like POT, MON, OPY and all of the solar fuckers. However, I warn you, all trends break--at some point.
My game plan is simple:
Milk the ensuing short covering rally, while actively setting up short sales--once the rally fades.
My best guess, we run until Thanksgiving, then slide until Christmas.
Top pick: VMI.
Fly Buy: VMI
I bought 2,000 VMI @ $83.73.
Disclaimer: If you buy VMI because of this post, you'll go bankrupt. And, you may lose money.
Disclaimer: If you buy VMI because of this post, you'll go bankrupt. And, you may lose money.
Fuck You Guys: Lotto Numbers
Tonight's winning lotto numbers will be:
53, 6, 67, 3, 1,14, 23
53, 6, 67, 3, 1,14, 23
Grape Drink
Christmas Comes Early?
Let's consider a few things, as stocks try to kill me:
The market is operated by fucktards, who have tanned their brains to the point where all they like is solar stocks.
Large financial institutions are pissed on, discarded for dead.
Tech stocks are now receiving the "homo-hammer" of death, via John Chambers.
However!
We're going into an election year. No fucking way does this slippery slope get greased up, prior to the election.
So, understand there are greater powers out there, very conspiratorial, who want status quo; I'm calling a short term, tradeable, bottom.
Just like that.
Back to my whiskey bottle.
The market is operated by fucktards, who have tanned their brains to the point where all they like is solar stocks.
Large financial institutions are pissed on, discarded for dead.
Tech stocks are now receiving the "homo-hammer" of death, via John Chambers.
However!
We're going into an election year. No fucking way does this slippery slope get greased up, prior to the election.
So, understand there are greater powers out there, very conspiratorial, who want status quo; I'm calling a short term, tradeable, bottom.
Just like that.
Back to my whiskey bottle.
Race to Zero
Days like today make my decision to manage money for a living, all the more meaningful. I could be busy with patients or telling a judge to go fuck his dog; instead, I'm here doing this shit.
Let's have it out:
VMW back to $50, today-- fuckfaces.
GOOG, BIDU, GS and ISRG going down $50--today.
BWLD, HANS, RIMM, AAPL, TBSI, DEG, CROX, WM, C, NVDA, ORCL, MLNX, KNXA, NTRI, AMKR, ZUMZ, HURC and everything else-- to zero--today.
Life is mostly about choices and stupid people. When the two are combined, one ends up owning stocks.
MORE GOOD NEWS:
Let's have it out:
VMW back to $50, today-- fuckfaces.
GOOG, BIDU, GS and ISRG going down $50--today.
BWLD, HANS, RIMM, AAPL, TBSI, DEG, CROX, WM, C, NVDA, ORCL, MLNX, KNXA, NTRI, AMKR, ZUMZ, HURC and everything else-- to zero--today.
Life is mostly about choices and stupid people. When the two are combined, one ends up owning stocks.
MORE GOOD NEWS:
| DB Deutsche Bank CEO: "Worst banks crisis" and does not expect any further writedowns for his own bank - Reuters (123.00 +1.77) -Update- | |
| Reuters reports the turmoil gripping global credit markets is the worst crisis in the bank CEO's Josef Ackermann's 30-year career, but he does not expect it to cause any further writedowns for his own bank. "(This) is psychologically the worst crisis that I have seen in my 30 years," he added, speaking to journalists at the Reuters Finance Summit. |
How 'bout a Mid-Day Rally?
How 'bout a Mid-Day Rally?
Fly Sells: CRESY, GME, ALJ
Fuck them.
Fly Buy: LFT
I bought 2,000 LFT @ $21.75.
Disclaimer: If you buy LFT because of this post, Ducati will take over this blog. And, you may lose money.
Disclaimer: If you buy LFT because of this post, Ducati will take over this blog. And, you may lose money.
Am I Not Merciful?
Fly Buy: HANS
I bought 2,000 HANS @ $39.04.
Disclaimer: If you buy HANS because of this post, you're a retard. And, you may lose money.
Disclaimer: If you buy HANS because of this post, you're a retard. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: CFC
I bought 10,000 shares of CFC @ $13.85.
Disclaimer: If you buy CFC because of this post, your only son will tan like Angelo Mozilo. And, you may lose money.
Disclaimer: If you buy CFC because of this post, your only son will tan like Angelo Mozilo. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: CLX
I bought 2,000 CLX @ $64.39.
Disclaimer: If you buy CLX because of this post, you will get offended by anonymous jerk offs on the internet. And, you may lose money.
Disclaimer: If you buy CLX because of this post, you will get offended by anonymous jerk offs on the internet. And, you may lose money.
Quick Alert: Sold by Me to others
As you know, I've been somewhat quiet on recent moves. Just know, I trade every fucking day, like a deviled banshee (I have no idea what that means).
Just to bring you up to speed on my current holdings:
Sold 90% of iiG
Sold 75% of HANS
Sold 90% of FMCN
Sold 100% of OIIM
Sold 10% of XFML
Sold 90% of FTK (high 40's, thank God)
Sold 100% of LNN
Sold 100% of ERTS
Sold 50% of FXI
Sold 75% of RS
Stocks that I've added:
CLX
GLF
WBD
JCG
BWLD
VMI
GD
Just to bring you up to speed on my current holdings:
Sold 90% of iiG
Sold 75% of HANS
Sold 90% of FMCN
Sold 100% of OIIM
Sold 10% of XFML
Sold 90% of FTK (high 40's, thank God)
Sold 100% of LNN
Sold 100% of ERTS
Sold 50% of FXI
Sold 75% of RS
Stocks that I've added:
CLX
GLF
WBD
JCG
BWLD
VMI
GD
Sector Spotlight: Retail
Look, I'll play along, whistling in my head, and make believe we're still in a bull market.
Yeah, everything is fucking great, with the exception of 95% of companies that report earnings. Naturally, of course, there is tremendous demand for anything solar. However, aside from that, this market has the look and taste of shit-pop.
Just know and understand, if you are long a stock that misses earnings, even by a single penny, it's going down 30%.
Hah?
Fuck you, you're dead (BID, HANS, ZUMZ).
Which leads me to my next suggestion:
Sell short the spikes. Fuck it, the trend has reversed; the tape is broken.
All of these retailers are on the precipice of destruction, with the exception of GYMB--since Mrs. Fly owns it.
Finally, it's worth mentioning, CSCO is a homo again. Sell it all; then sell it again.
Yeah, everything is fucking great, with the exception of 95% of companies that report earnings. Naturally, of course, there is tremendous demand for anything solar. However, aside from that, this market has the look and taste of shit-pop.
Just know and understand, if you are long a stock that misses earnings, even by a single penny, it's going down 30%.
Hah?
Fuck you, you're dead (BID, HANS, ZUMZ).
Which leads me to my next suggestion:
Sell short the spikes. Fuck it, the trend has reversed; the tape is broken.
All of these retailers are on the precipice of destruction, with the exception of GYMB--since Mrs. Fly owns it.
Finally, it's worth mentioning, CSCO is a homo again. Sell it all; then sell it again.
Stocks are for Jerks
HANS missed.
I sold most of my position yesterday, but this is just terrible.
Generally, beverage companies are good tells on a nations economy.
In short, this economy is in the shitter.
Buy it back @ $39.
I sold most of my position yesterday, but this is just terrible.
Generally, beverage companies are good tells on a nations economy.
In short, this economy is in the shitter.
Buy it back @ $39.
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Fly Announcement: The Grand Finale
All fucktards, under the age of 47 1/2, are cordially invited to see an "internet legend" (Fly) off, live: Monday, November 12th at 10:00 am.
Proper attire is demanded.
I intend to reveal certain things about "The Fly," and detail why it makes sense to burn this fucking blog down to the ground.
Also, do not miss this weekend's guest blogger, who will be sure to entertain, in a soul grinding sort of way.
In short, "fuck you, I quit."
Proper attire is demanded.
I intend to reveal certain things about "The Fly," and detail why it makes sense to burn this fucking blog down to the ground.
Also, do not miss this weekend's guest blogger, who will be sure to entertain, in a soul grinding sort of way.
In short, "fuck you, I quit."
Alkaholiks: The Flute Song
Closing Comments
Holy shit that was fun!
I was making so much money today, going short my own positions; I ended up doing the running man and the cabbage patch dances-- late in the day-- thanks to sheer happiness.
Seriously, I was dancing on graves, while spitting at my trader/servant.
Fuck, down 370 points. Gee, life is great.
As you know, us short sellers deserve this shit. I'm short every financial, both private and publicly traded, while long gold bricks and other shit.
God willing, HANS will miss earnings and gap down $40.
This is it boys, the market is done.
Long live Bob Pasani.
NOTE: During the composition of this post, "The Fly" was restrained at his local mental institution.
I was making so much money today, going short my own positions; I ended up doing the running man and the cabbage patch dances-- late in the day-- thanks to sheer happiness.
Seriously, I was dancing on graves, while spitting at my trader/servant.
Fuck, down 370 points. Gee, life is great.
As you know, us short sellers deserve this shit. I'm short every financial, both private and publicly traded, while long gold bricks and other shit.
God willing, HANS will miss earnings and gap down $40.
This is it boys, the market is done.
Long live Bob Pasani.
NOTE: During the composition of this post, "The Fly" was restrained at his local mental institution.
Late Day Thought
Maria Bartiromo is a dick. And, there is no such thing as a "Woodshedder Bottom, part II."
Position Update: HANS
I'm selling half of my position here, ahead of earnings.
There is no way in sweet hell will "The Fly" give away his hard fought gains in HANS.
Now, I still believe they will blow out numbers, considering their new distribution agreement and successful product launches; but this market is twisted.
Live to fight another day.
There is no way in sweet hell will "The Fly" give away his hard fought gains in HANS.
Now, I still believe they will blow out numbers, considering their new distribution agreement and successful product launches; but this market is twisted.
Live to fight another day.
Updated Breaking News: "The Woodshedder Bottom," part II
Woodshedder just slapped a VIX chart on his blog, saying all types of ominous things about the market.
You can see, quite clearly, that his lines have perfect symmetry, enabling him to predict future outcomes in stocks and other shit too.
You can see, quite clearly, that his lines have perfect symmetry, enabling him to predict future outcomes in stocks and other shit too.
Quick Alert: Go Long
The Government just told me they will rescue the market, by the bell.
Odd no?
Developing...
Kill the Appraisers
All of these banking fuckers need to do some serious jail time.
However, it's worth mentioning, the appraisers need to go to State Prison too.
Those fuckers made sure their appraisal met the loan value.
Why aren't they in jail yet?
NOTE: Carnage in the financials reminds me of Armageddon, despite never actually living through an actual period of Armageddon.
However, it's worth mentioning, the appraisers need to go to State Prison too.
Those fuckers made sure their appraisal met the loan value.
Why aren't they in jail yet?
NOTE: Carnage in the financials reminds me of Armageddon, despite never actually living through an actual period of Armageddon.
"Come Out to Play"
Bear Market
Hopefully this post will mark the bottom of the market. However, let's call a spade a spade.
This is what a bear market looks like.
Aside from a few fucktarded tech stocks, nothing is working--going into the best time of year to invest.
Everything from financial to retail, and the stuff that's in between, is getting skinned alive.
It's really hard to be a big fucking believer in this market, after seeing one terrible earnings report after another.
Like the decline in the dollar and rise in commodities, betting against credit/housing related names have been automatic.
PMI to zero.
ABK to zero.
CFC to negative 20.
Amazing.
In short, you're better off playing battleship in your toilet bowl, than fucking around with this market.
This is what a bear market looks like.
Aside from a few fucktarded tech stocks, nothing is working--going into the best time of year to invest.
Everything from financial to retail, and the stuff that's in between, is getting skinned alive.
It's really hard to be a big fucking believer in this market, after seeing one terrible earnings report after another.
Like the decline in the dollar and rise in commodities, betting against credit/housing related names have been automatic.
PMI to zero.
ABK to zero.
CFC to negative 20.
Amazing.
In short, you're better off playing battleship in your toilet bowl, than fucking around with this market.
Quick Alert: FlyonWallStreet Banned at Maxim Group
According to my sources at Maxim Group, this website, thanks to this post, has been banned at Maxim Group.
I'm guessing, the whole Chuck Bennett/MVIS conference call thing caused the fucktards who operate that shitbox to filter out this wonderfuck of a blog.
Developing...
I'm guessing, the whole Chuck Bennett/MVIS conference call thing caused the fucktards who operate that shitbox to filter out this wonderfuck of a blog.
Developing...
The Important Matter of Bad Nicknames
I'm fucking busy, so this will be brief.
A long time ago, "little Fly" was a kick ass baseball player, a pitcher of course.
I must have been 12 years old, on the mound, striking batters out--as usual.
Then, all of a sudden, my Mother started screaming from the stands-- a nickname that I had never heard before.
Much to my chagrin, she was cheering: "go Scooter go, go Scooter gooo!"
What the fuck!
As you know, being the rock star little league pitcher that I was, this was an alarming turn of events--having my own Mother heckle me, with queer nicknames, from the stands.
I stepped off the mound and gave my Mother one of the looks--but it was too late.
The other team had caught on, appreciating the femininity of this nickname, and began chanting "Scooter."
Being the level headed pre-teen that I was, I planned to ignore them, while mowing down their bullshit lineup.
But, then it happened.
The Scooter shit reached a fevered pitch, with laughter everywhere, making "little Fly" embarrassed/agitated.
I snapped.
I stepped off the fucking mound and threw a fastball into the opposing teams dugout, screaming: "fuck you assholes."
Shortly thereafter, "little Fly" was removed from the game, kicking and screaming, ordered to leave the ball park.
As I walked home with my Mother, all I heard was "Scooter, Scooter."
Cocksuckers.
A long time ago, "little Fly" was a kick ass baseball player, a pitcher of course.
I must have been 12 years old, on the mound, striking batters out--as usual.
Then, all of a sudden, my Mother started screaming from the stands-- a nickname that I had never heard before.
Much to my chagrin, she was cheering: "go Scooter go, go Scooter gooo!"
What the fuck!
As you know, being the rock star little league pitcher that I was, this was an alarming turn of events--having my own Mother heckle me, with queer nicknames, from the stands.
I stepped off the mound and gave my Mother one of the looks--but it was too late.
The other team had caught on, appreciating the femininity of this nickname, and began chanting "Scooter."
Being the level headed pre-teen that I was, I planned to ignore them, while mowing down their bullshit lineup.
But, then it happened.
The Scooter shit reached a fevered pitch, with laughter everywhere, making "little Fly" embarrassed/agitated.
I snapped.
I stepped off the fucking mound and threw a fastball into the opposing teams dugout, screaming: "fuck you assholes."
Shortly thereafter, "little Fly" was removed from the game, kicking and screaming, ordered to leave the ball park.
As I walked home with my Mother, all I heard was "Scooter, Scooter."
Cocksuckers.
Sector Spotlight: Èç¹ûÄãÊ
Èç¹ûÄãʹÓõĵçÄÔ¿ÉÒÔÏÔʾ¼òÌåÖÐÎÄ, GM.
Èç¹ûÄã, cocksuckers, Èç¹ûÄãʹÓõĵçÄÔ¿¿ý¤F¥þ²y¦U¦aªº¤¤¤åº. ¦pªG§A¨Ï¥Îªº¹q¸£¥i¥HÅã¥ÜÁcÅ餤¤å "subprime fuckfaces" ¦pªG§A¨Ï¥Îªº¹.
Check this shit out: ¦U¦aªº¤¤¤åºô¯¸¡A¬O±M, M¥Ø¿ý¡C , "machine gunned," ÖÐÎÄ.
With my money, ÖÐÎÄ, õĵçÄÔ¿ÉÒ, Å餤¤å, "Mother Market," M¥Ø¿ý¡C --my balls are on fire.
¶Ó½øÈë, iiG, VMI, MVIS, BWLD, XFML-- ¥i¥HÅã¥ÜÁcÅ餤, ÄãʹÓõÄ-- chop my balls off and put them through a grinder--Äã.
¦pªG§A¨Ï, fuck it, Ó½ø,ÉÒÔÏÔʾ¼, donuts and carrots, ŪªÌ©--q¸£¥i¥H-- fuck you too.
Developing...
NOTE: ĵçÄÔ¿ÉÒÔ, "time machine," Åã¥ÜÁcÅ餤, assholes, ¸¡A¬O±Mªù¬°¤¤¤åŪª-- so there.
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Late Night Demand
During my final days blogging here, I demand you fuckers wear a suit and tie, when reading this fucking site.
Have some class.
NOTE: Failure to adhere to "The Fly's" new dress code policy will result in the seizure of your dry cleaning.
Have some class.
NOTE: Failure to adhere to "The Fly's" new dress code policy will result in the seizure of your dry cleaning.
"Dollar Danks" has it all figured out
As you know, "The Fly" sold that iiG shit, prior to tonights 'earnings fuck you.' As usual, the stock fucking cratered in after hours trading.
However, unlike other fuck bag stocks, iiG will rally back hard, as Danks and Co. work diligently to settle the lawsuit with California.
That's right ladies and gents, iiG is not permitted, by law, to do business in CA.
What a wonderfuck of a business.
Anyway, my point: "Dollar Danks" is not to be fucked with, long term. He'll pull some rabbit out of his ass and sell his criminal enterprise-- to some unsuspecting rich-er guy.
NOTE: I just listened to the conference call. Apparently "Chuck Bennett" strikes again, asking all sorts of fucktarded questions. "Chuck" begins his ranting at 39:16. Click here for the conference call archive.
May God bless "Chuck Bennett."
However, unlike other fuck bag stocks, iiG will rally back hard, as Danks and Co. work diligently to settle the lawsuit with California.
That's right ladies and gents, iiG is not permitted, by law, to do business in CA.
What a wonderfuck of a business.
Anyway, my point: "Dollar Danks" is not to be fucked with, long term. He'll pull some rabbit out of his ass and sell his criminal enterprise-- to some unsuspecting rich-er guy.
NOTE: I just listened to the conference call. Apparently "Chuck Bennett" strikes again, asking all sorts of fucktarded questions. "Chuck" begins his ranting at 39:16. Click here for the conference call archive.
May God bless "Chuck Bennett."
Staind - It's Been Awhile
Position Update: AAPL
Don't fuck with Steve Jobs; he'll break your face open with an ax.
Can anything stop AAPL?
$200 by tomorow?
Life would be grand, if "The Fly" had all his stupid, filthy eggs in RIMM, AAPL, BIDU and ISRG-- with a few side trades in oil and gold bricks.
Instead, I keep trying to find 'the next one,' while the 'current one' continues to mint money.
Developing...
Can anything stop AAPL?
$200 by tomorow?
Life would be grand, if "The Fly" had all his stupid, filthy eggs in RIMM, AAPL, BIDU and ISRG-- with a few side trades in oil and gold bricks.
Instead, I keep trying to find 'the next one,' while the 'current one' continues to mint money.
Developing...
"Is this still CNN?"
Fly Buys: VMI
I bought 2,000 VMI @ $84.
Disclaimer: If you buy VMI because of this post, your neighbors will accuse you of not being 'green enough.' And, you may lose money.
Disclaimer: If you buy VMI because of this post, your neighbors will accuse you of not being 'green enough.' And, you may lose money.
Position Update: iiG
As you know, I sold most of my iiG position, with plans to buy it all back--post earnings.
However, something just dawned on me.
My so called 'sources' on this stock encouraged me to be long, last quarter, only to see it get shredded-- post earnings. Now, I'm hearing "earnings are priced in."
Which leads me to George Costanza.
Maybe I should do the opposite of what these hatfuckers are suggesting?
Viz.
However, something just dawned on me.
My so called 'sources' on this stock encouraged me to be long, last quarter, only to see it get shredded-- post earnings. Now, I'm hearing "earnings are priced in."
Which leads me to George Costanza.
Maybe I should do the opposite of what these hatfuckers are suggesting?
Viz.
Position Update: MVIS
I really should quit talking about MVIS, since its been one fuck of a loser-- over the past 6 months.
This is my game plan, plain and simple:
- Ignore the stock until December.
- Buy more, ahead of CES.
- Sell 3/4th's of my position, after CES
In short, I am bewildered at the lack of insider buying in the name, especially since this is a concept stock--with a very high ceiling.
I'm not mad at the company. I made a lot of money in the shares, over the past 18 months. But, I can't fuck around with small cap concept names, without the conviction of management being displayed, via stock purchases.
As you know, there are many other stocks worth accumulating, especially after this recent decline. If you are long the stock, I suggest putting it on the back burner, until January, then consider taking some off the table.
This is my game plan, plain and simple:
- Ignore the stock until December.
- Buy more, ahead of CES.
- Sell 3/4th's of my position, after CES
In short, I am bewildered at the lack of insider buying in the name, especially since this is a concept stock--with a very high ceiling.
I'm not mad at the company. I made a lot of money in the shares, over the past 18 months. But, I can't fuck around with small cap concept names, without the conviction of management being displayed, via stock purchases.
As you know, there are many other stocks worth accumulating, especially after this recent decline. If you are long the stock, I suggest putting it on the back burner, until January, then consider taking some off the table.
Miss Earnings= You're Dead
This is the most brutal earnings season, since the unwinding of wonderful dot com bubble.
I mean, some of these companies are guiding higher, only to see their stock cut in half. What the fuck?
Knowing how fucktarded the market is, these CEO's should just slash and burn estimates for future quarters, in order to lower the bar and crush them, like Stalin, down the road.
Looking at the declines in BWLD, SMSI, CROX, CTSH, FTK, SNDK etc., is reason enough to seek religion and get on the fucking sidelines-- for the big 'fuck you, you're dead' day.
I know there are many, many more blow-ups than the ones mentioned above. Feel free to add some in the comments section, or don't.
Either scenario is perfectly acceptable with me.
In short, I want no part of any earnings play, including HANS. It simply isn't worth the risk of having your balls lit on fire.
Consider that when tea bagging the earnings bucket-- which is filled with kerosene.
I mean, some of these companies are guiding higher, only to see their stock cut in half. What the fuck?
Knowing how fucktarded the market is, these CEO's should just slash and burn estimates for future quarters, in order to lower the bar and crush them, like Stalin, down the road.
Looking at the declines in BWLD, SMSI, CROX, CTSH, FTK, SNDK etc., is reason enough to seek religion and get on the fucking sidelines-- for the big 'fuck you, you're dead' day.
I know there are many, many more blow-ups than the ones mentioned above. Feel free to add some in the comments section, or don't.
Either scenario is perfectly acceptable with me.
In short, I want no part of any earnings play, including HANS. It simply isn't worth the risk of having your balls lit on fire.
Consider that when tea bagging the earnings bucket-- which is filled with kerosene.
Mr. 52 Week Low: "The Donald"
Sector Spotlight: Energy
I had to sell a little XFML this morning, north of $9. Although I believe the stock can go much higher, in my head, it made sense to lighten the load. However, down in the low 8's, I'm considering buying the fucker back.
In case you're wondering, I have VMI next to MVIS on my monitor, which may explain the sudden gayness in the stocks behavior. However, I just moved the fucker and put it next to RIMM.
Higher prices here we come.
How about that gold rally?
Exactly. Fuck you and your stupid gold stocks.
Within a real commodity sector, oil, stocks are flying. Right here, right now, I like SU, GHM, GLF, UPL and OII.
Also, seeing the metal stocks green, I'm betting VMI will give me 3-4 bucks to the upside, by the closing bell.
Finally, we have a rally going in the financials, specifically ABK, JPM, BSC and GS. My guess, should C go positive, we'll have us a full fledged short covering rally-- to the tune of 1.5%.
NOTE: CROX has to be cheap, no?
In case you're wondering, I have VMI next to MVIS on my monitor, which may explain the sudden gayness in the stocks behavior. However, I just moved the fucker and put it next to RIMM.
Higher prices here we come.
How about that gold rally?
Exactly. Fuck you and your stupid gold stocks.
Within a real commodity sector, oil, stocks are flying. Right here, right now, I like SU, GHM, GLF, UPL and OII.
Also, seeing the metal stocks green, I'm betting VMI will give me 3-4 bucks to the upside, by the closing bell.
Finally, we have a rally going in the financials, specifically ABK, JPM, BSC and GS. My guess, should C go positive, we'll have us a full fledged short covering rally-- to the tune of 1.5%.
NOTE: CROX has to be cheap, no?
Monday, November 05, 2007
Last Minute Firing: Kidstock
Now, if this is my last week blogging here, did you really think I'd go, without shitcanning one of you fucking retards?
Come on now.
To be honest, as opposed to secretly lying, "The Fly" is quite fond of the one called 'Kidstock,' mainly because he lost all of his money--in a stock I'm long.
Shit like that pleases me.
In short, Kidstock has to be fired, because that's the natural order of things.
God willing, "The Fly" will be blessed by this harsh action with plentiful capital gains.
Developing...
Come on now.
To be honest, as opposed to secretly lying, "The Fly" is quite fond of the one called 'Kidstock,' mainly because he lost all of his money--in a stock I'm long.
Shit like that pleases me.
In short, Kidstock has to be fired, because that's the natural order of things.
God willing, "The Fly" will be blessed by this harsh action with plentiful capital gains.
Developing...
Late Night Observation
Updated Good News: XFML
Never bet against "The Fly." He wins, a lot.
| XFML Xinhua Finance raises guidance above consensus (8.54 +1.18) | |
| XFML raises Q3 adjusted net income per ADS guidance to $0.20-0.21 vs $0.12 Reuters consensus; revs $38-40 mln vs $36.65 mln Reuters consensus. Co cites stronger than expected growth in its business as well as contribution from acquisitions. |
Kanye West: Good Life
Closing Comments
Come on bearshitters, you know we're going higher. You hear the bull train coming, ready to detach your legs from torso?
All in all, today was an amusing day for "The Fly," as HANS dumped out, while XFML set shorts aflame.
Many of my 'smart friends' capitulated on XFML, near the lows--unable to take the pain. Not "The Fly."
As you already know, "The Fly" could give two bottles of cheap whiskey and a gay mule about temporary set backs. At the end of the day, my stocks go up, mainly because I'm a space alien magician, who has access to the space time continuum.
In short, it makes zero sense betting against Santa Claus, for he will roll on you fuckers with his pimped out sled-- and cold 'debank' your bullshit brokerage accounts.
NOTE: I sold 75% of my iiG position.
All in all, today was an amusing day for "The Fly," as HANS dumped out, while XFML set shorts aflame.
Many of my 'smart friends' capitulated on XFML, near the lows--unable to take the pain. Not "The Fly."
As you already know, "The Fly" could give two bottles of cheap whiskey and a gay mule about temporary set backs. At the end of the day, my stocks go up, mainly because I'm a space alien magician, who has access to the space time continuum.
In short, it makes zero sense betting against Santa Claus, for he will roll on you fuckers with his pimped out sled-- and cold 'debank' your bullshit brokerage accounts.
NOTE: I sold 75% of my iiG position.
Late Day Thought
"The Fly" wins again.
Final Flush Out
This is it.
My sense, the market has 300-500 points of downside, with 1,000 upside. We are close to the bottom, considering C and other retarded banks will not post 11 billion dollar losses, daily.
This is a classic shakeout, ahead of the Thanksgiving run.
Right now, make your fucking buy list and nibble, into weakness.
By Christmas, you'll be drinking your low end beer of choice-- out of a golden chalice. As you know, "The Fly's" chalice is diamond encrusted.
With my money, I am focused on commodities and Asian stocks.
My sense, the market has 300-500 points of downside, with 1,000 upside. We are close to the bottom, considering C and other retarded banks will not post 11 billion dollar losses, daily.
This is a classic shakeout, ahead of the Thanksgiving run.
Right now, make your fucking buy list and nibble, into weakness.
By Christmas, you'll be drinking your low end beer of choice-- out of a golden chalice. As you know, "The Fly's" chalice is diamond encrusted.
With my money, I am focused on commodities and Asian stocks.
Fly Buys: MVIS, VMI, XFML and WBD
I put approximately 25k to work in each of the above names.
Disclaimer: If you buy any of the above stocks because of this post, you will be caught short during the annual 'Santa Claus rally.' And, you may lose money.
Disclaimer: If you buy any of the above stocks because of this post, you will be caught short during the annual 'Santa Claus rally.' And, you may lose money.
Position Update: iiG
I like iiG, long term. However, I would not hold a full position into earnings.
Instead, shave it down, then buy back after.
Instead, shave it down, then buy back after.
Quick Alert: Go Fuck Yourself
I'm covering the hedges I 'threw on' last week, and buying more stock--like a crack head in need of a light.
Moreover, all of you 'small dickers,' attempting to mock "The Fly" during his most recent spaceship accident: Go fuck yourselves.
That's right. Do it.
You can't hold a candle to me, no matter how many times I crash into titanium walls or fall into deep pits with bayonets sticking out of them.
Always remember, you're just some fucktard reading this blog, while I'm the guy who writes this shit.
Ten fake dollars says we go higher tomorrow.
Moreover, all of you 'small dickers,' attempting to mock "The Fly" during his most recent spaceship accident: Go fuck yourselves.
That's right. Do it.
You can't hold a candle to me, no matter how many times I crash into titanium walls or fall into deep pits with bayonets sticking out of them.
Always remember, you're just some fucktard reading this blog, while I'm the guy who writes this shit.
Ten fake dollars says we go higher tomorrow.
Position Update: XFML
Who knows why this fucker (XFML) is melting higher? All I know, being long 100,000 shares of the bitch has been an arduous experience, to say the least.
The general market is bleeding, thanks to the 'sub-prime' worries.
Which leads me to my next question:
We all know the market goes up, like clockwork, November thru January. Is this the final shakeout, before the big, gay Santa Claus run?
If so, common sense dictates to buy now.
The problem, people always suspect "this time will be different."
No it won't.
In short, it makes sense to get drunk, buy some stock, then throw chicken noodle soup at your television.
NOTE: SWC down 13%. Odd no?
The general market is bleeding, thanks to the 'sub-prime' worries.
Which leads me to my next question:
We all know the market goes up, like clockwork, November thru January. Is this the final shakeout, before the big, gay Santa Claus run?
If so, common sense dictates to buy now.
The problem, people always suspect "this time will be different."
No it won't.
In short, it makes sense to get drunk, buy some stock, then throw chicken noodle soup at your television.
NOTE: SWC down 13%. Odd no?
Time Masheen
Sector Spotlight: Financials
Don't you get it?
We have drunken fools running our financial institutions. If you thought "The Fly's" NTRI call was bad, look at those cupfuckers. They're chockful of NTRI's. This shit is disastrous, with ramifications that can break the economy in half, like a salty pretzel.
Now, looking at the market, one could make a strong argument that we are in a bear market. As of now, the homies, retailers, financials and a myriad of hatfucking semiconductors are hugging their respective 52 week lows.
However, "The Fly" will not make such assertions, not yet.
Instead, he will put his 'calculator brain' to work, and figure this asshattery out.
As you know, this has not been an easy tape.
Regarding the financials, I spit on the whole lot of them. Fuck them all; may they burn in hell, alongside Space Hitler.
With my money, I guess it makes sense to chase VMI down to zero. And, I'm quite pleased to see XFML gapping higher-- God knows I need it.
Finally, as you know, this very well could be my last week posting here. This shit is cumbersome. I'll opine on this important matter and others, whenever the fuck I feel like it.
We have drunken fools running our financial institutions. If you thought "The Fly's" NTRI call was bad, look at those cupfuckers. They're chockful of NTRI's. This shit is disastrous, with ramifications that can break the economy in half, like a salty pretzel.
Now, looking at the market, one could make a strong argument that we are in a bear market. As of now, the homies, retailers, financials and a myriad of hatfucking semiconductors are hugging their respective 52 week lows.
However, "The Fly" will not make such assertions, not yet.
Instead, he will put his 'calculator brain' to work, and figure this asshattery out.
As you know, this has not been an easy tape.
Regarding the financials, I spit on the whole lot of them. Fuck them all; may they burn in hell, alongside Space Hitler.
With my money, I guess it makes sense to chase VMI down to zero. And, I'm quite pleased to see XFML gapping higher-- God knows I need it.
Finally, as you know, this very well could be my last week posting here. This shit is cumbersome. I'll opine on this important matter and others, whenever the fuck I feel like it.
Sunday, November 04, 2007
Fuck all this chart shit; Lets have us an Election
***Election Fraud Alert***
Apparently, this election is rigged. If you notice, it is impossible to fire Kidstock, using the current poll. The "yes" button is fucking broken. As a result, Kidstock stands to win, via Saddam landslide.
To fight this fraud, "The Fly" recommends writing in your vote, via the comments section.
Developing...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Much to my chagrin, Kidstock is back--with bad financial advice and a much lower net worth. Last time, prior to being 'shitcanned,' he suggested shorting oil and GLF. Shortly thereafter, GLF and oil booked 20 dollars per share, effectively wiping out Kidstocks net worth.
I'll have you know, "The Fly" just completed all of his Christmas shopping, needlessly spending an inordinate amount of money--thanks to the special 'requests' of Mrs. Fly.
In addition to that, today, "The Fly" was rather busy "winterizing" his property-- also thanks to the incessant urging of Mrs. Fly.
Life is somewhat lukewarm.
In short, it's time for a little internet venting, via 'elections.' Also, don't forget, "The Fly" will soon be shutting down this fucktarded blog-- in order to melt away into the confines of glorified internet folklore.
NOTE: Please participate in the "Fly elections." Should I shitcan Kidstock?
Apparently, this election is rigged. If you notice, it is impossible to fire Kidstock, using the current poll. The "yes" button is fucking broken. As a result, Kidstock stands to win, via Saddam landslide.
To fight this fraud, "The Fly" recommends writing in your vote, via the comments section.
Developing...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Much to my chagrin, Kidstock is back--with bad financial advice and a much lower net worth. Last time, prior to being 'shitcanned,' he suggested shorting oil and GLF. Shortly thereafter, GLF and oil booked 20 dollars per share, effectively wiping out Kidstocks net worth.
I'll have you know, "The Fly" just completed all of his Christmas shopping, needlessly spending an inordinate amount of money--thanks to the special 'requests' of Mrs. Fly.
In addition to that, today, "The Fly" was rather busy "winterizing" his property-- also thanks to the incessant urging of Mrs. Fly.
Life is somewhat lukewarm.
In short, it's time for a little internet venting, via 'elections.' Also, don't forget, "The Fly" will soon be shutting down this fucktarded blog-- in order to melt away into the confines of glorified internet folklore.
NOTE: Please participate in the "Fly elections." Should I shitcan Kidstock?
A Different Look
Oil has assumed a leadership role since 2004 and while many smart guys would be tempted to try and call a top at the psychologically important $100/barrel price level, my preference is to stick with the prevailing trend. The chart below provides a different perspective than last night's which speaks to the subjectivity of chart reading and perhaps "The Fly's" aversion to it.
The chart above uses a box size of 25 points instead of the default 10 points used in last night's chart. The larger box size reduces whipsaws and also illustrates a potential triple top at the 1500 price level which last night's chart did not. Right now the trend is directionless.
The market has a tendency to retest price levels which is why I would not be surprised to see continued weakness in the XOI in the coming weeks should the market continue to get pounded because of the failing financials. My game plan is to look for entries in leading Oil and Oil Service names when and if the XOI probes the 1400 level in another attempt to shake out the weak hands.
Alternatively, should the index regain its footing, any move above 1525 would signal a very important triple top breakout and affirm a continuation of the uptrend. In that case, refiners such as VLO and other Fly favorites should be bought aggressively.
The chart above uses a box size of 25 points instead of the default 10 points used in last night's chart. The larger box size reduces whipsaws and also illustrates a potential triple top at the 1500 price level which last night's chart did not. Right now the trend is directionless.
The market has a tendency to retest price levels which is why I would not be surprised to see continued weakness in the XOI in the coming weeks should the market continue to get pounded because of the failing financials. My game plan is to look for entries in leading Oil and Oil Service names when and if the XOI probes the 1400 level in another attempt to shake out the weak hands.
Alternatively, should the index regain its footing, any move above 1525 would signal a very important triple top breakout and affirm a continuation of the uptrend. In that case, refiners such as VLO and other Fly favorites should be bought aggressively.
If Every Instinct You Have is Wrong...
Much of "The Fly's" success can be attributed to his unwillingness to follow the crowd. I'm sure many of you "internet leeches" have been shaken out of good companies that proceeded to march on without you because you got caught up in the negative sentiment at the moment.
An old adage on Wall Street goes something like this..."When you're yelling, you should be selling. When you're crying you should be buying."
With that in mind, I am going to build a case for going LONG oil...stay tuned.
