Saturday, February 03, 2007
Weekend Research: American Dairy (ADY)
Anyway, while doing my research, I came across ADY.
In short, ADY sells milk and baby formula in China. They intend on expanding their products lines into other dairy foods, but why bother? Their sales are ripping at a torrid pace, and the stock has been trending higher.
On an apples to apples comparison to HANS, ADY is 50% undervalued at these levels.
Let me know what you think.
Friday, February 02, 2007
Blink 182: Stay Together For The Kids
Instead, I will offer "Fly Buys" and "Fly Sells" as sneak peeks into my world of superior money management.
Seriously, today was a perfect, non-eventful consolidation day, with most sectors green-- even AAPL.
Good old fashion AAPL managed to go up .01! Cocksuckers.
Finally, I am not a believer in the Homebuilder story. Frankly, I feel crazy people are loading up, in order to get unloaded on. If that makes any sense.
With my money, I will start to overweight Telecom and underweight Energy. I have come to the conclusion that I no longer "need" oil. Therefore, I will systematically sell most of my Energy holdings and replace them with lotto tickets or OTB bets.
NOTE: Many people I know are challenging my BWLD bullishness. When BWLD goes to $75, I am going to mail them a night's worth of chicken bones.
Late Day Thought
Fly Buy: BWLD
Disclaimer: If you buy BWLD because of this post, your neighbor destroy your tulips. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: VLO
Fly Buy: TKO
Disclaimer: If you buy TKO because of this post, the Italian mafia will "suggest" you hire them for "protection" against the criminal elements in your neighborhood. And, you may lose money.
Fly Rant: McDonald's Coffee Sucks Wood
CNBC just said, "MCD has the best coffee." Hilarious joke, I am sure.
Clearly, anyone with a palette knows Starbucks is far superior, to both MCD and Dunkin' Donuts.
Plus, only poor people drink MCD coffee. In America, poor people don't count.
Sorry, I don't make the rules. I just try to enforce them.
Position Updates: NETL
Near term target: $27.
Fly Buy: PLCE
Disclaimer: If you buy PLCE because of this post, you may become addicted to crack-cocaine. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Telco's
I see the "bottom fishers" over at RACK will need to dig a little deeper today-- as their stock gets obliterated. RACK is done for at least 1 quarter. Stay away.
Right now, my favorite place to invest is Telecom. Former state run monopolies, with tremendous cash flow, are always safe places to put money. Until their fucking share prices start going lower, of course. In the sector, I like TKC, CN, CHA, CHL, GLDN, ROS, VIP, WIN and many more.
I am in the midst of doing some tedious research on the Telco's and will have a consolidated buy list next week.
Finally, the Semi's look good today, with outsized gains in NEXT, SIMO, ZRAN and CHRT. Currently, the only high beta tech stock that I am gambling on, waiting for earnings, is IVAC.
NOTE: Lately, the Metals have gone on a terrific run. Unfortunately, I missed out. The last Metal stock I played was ERS, several months ago for a 50%+ gain. I feel the sector is due for a pullback. Ultimately, the sector is going higher. However, I'd look to buy names like RTI, ATI, PCU, X, CRS and TIE-- only on dips.
The following Telecom stocks have mojo:
Thursday, February 01, 2007
50 Cents: Many Men
Basically, being short this market is equal to be a dickless, fucktarded asshat-- at the Playboy Mansion.
There is no need to discuss what worked, because everything fucking ripped higher. However, I will say, at my office, Steve Jobs' face is getting poked around by my darts quite a bit-- because his fucking stock sucks wood.
Considering my cost basis is $55 on the crapple, I should be more patient-- but I am not. I want this fucking stock to go higher now and fast. You hear me Mr. Jobs?
Aside from idle threats, I am convinced MVIS bottomed out today @ $3.36. Also, the Trannies are out of control, with manly gains in ACLI, LSTR, HUBG and ODFL.
Finally, it's worth mentioning the market did well in January, up 2% on the Nazz. Typically, January sets the tone for the rest of the year. I anticipate the buyers will really pressure the sellers over the next two weeks-- as the catalyst to sell equities fade and whither into the wind.
Late Day Thought
Foreign Banks Ripping
Position Updates: HANS
Whole Foods Market is Voluntarily Recalling 6,000 Jars of 365 Everyday Value Kalamata Olive Tapenade
Whole Foods Market
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE -- Austin, TX -- January 31, 2007 -- Effective immediately, Whole Foods Market is voluntarily recalling 6,000 jars of a 32,000-jar lot of its 365 Everyday Value Kalamata Olive Tapenade because the product may contain glass fragments, which may cause injury if ingested.
The Guys Get Shirts
It kind of reminds me of certain family members.
Quick Alert: Putting My Balls on the Line
Today, in true mad man form, I sold my only hedge, MZZ. I booked a quick, sharp loss because the "event" I was looking for fizzled away like my dearly beloved Grandpappies alka-seltzers. May he rest in peace.
Now, I may be wrong and the market may proceed to get "tea-bagged," but that's a risk I am willing to take.
Basically, if I didn't sell MZZ today and it went down another 2 or 3 points, I'd have to do some serious damage to my trader/servant.
I guess what it all comes down to is conviction. I am convinced the market is going higher.
Place your bets, fuckers.
Fly Sell: VLO
Fly Buy: NKI-wt
Disclaimer: If you buy NKI-wt because of this post, your charts may go terribly wrong. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: SVG
Disclaimer: If you buy SVG because of this post, Bernanke may raise interest rates. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: GME
Disclaimer: If you buy GME because of this post, you may get called for jury duty. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: MZZ
Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors
With Michael Dell coming back to run DELL, I like the stock here and feel HPQ is a sell. I know, it's very early to make such bold predictions. But, last year AMD looked as if it were going straight to $100, until INTC kicked them in the shorts. INTC is also a buy.
Bottom line: DELL is a compelling turnaround story.
Also, I like the Semi's for a trade. ONNN, UCTT, FORM, TSRA and SIMO have good momentum.
Basically, I expect we will enjoy a short covering rally today-- as the sellers poleax themselves into oblivion.
Finally, MVIS is very weak-- as the buyers lose interest-- the sellers gain courage. The great part about owning MVIS is knowing they could announce a major cellphone deal for their Picop, literally any day. The fucktarded part of owning it, is not knowing when it will come.
It's a classic damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario-- where it doesn't make sense to buy or sell right now.
With my money, I will sit back and collect shares-- as the little people lose interest. Any selling will hit the stock hard, since there aren't any momentum players left. I'd look to back up the truck in the $3.20's.
NOTE: Good call to a certain broker who gave me ITWO yesterday.
UPDATE: MVIS bottomed here and looks impressive.
Position Updates: NTRI, GILD
CIBC upgrades Gilead Sciences (GILD 64.32) to Outperform from Sector Perform with an $82 tgt following earnings and based on their substantially increased near-term and out-year top-line and EPS growth ests. The firm notes the qtr was strong and they see follow-through in 2007 and beyond.
JMP Securities upgrades Gilead Sciences (GILD 64.32) to Outperform from Market Perform and maintains $88 tgt, following a strong Q406 coupled with encouraging 2007 guidance
Gilead Sciences tgt raised to $82 at Montgomery; HIV growth trumps Myogen dilution (64.32 ) : Montgomery notes GILD reported Q06 EPS of $0.83, vs their est of $0.70 (excluding options expensing). Revs of $899 mln exceeded firm's est of $814 mln primarily because of higher than expected Atripla revs. In firm's view, the key negative in GILD's guidance is that Y07 R&D expenses are expected to increase considerably owing primarily to Gilead's acquisition of Myogen. What was being regarded as a year marred by dilution and anemic 8% growth per consensus expectations appears to firm to be a year with rev growth exceeding 30% and EPS growth of about 16%. Firm is raising their DCF-based price target from $74 to $82 based on strong HIV sales growth and lower tax rates going forward for GILD. Firm raises their 2010 HIV sales projection from $3.5-$3.8 bln. Since the $2.5 bln acquisition of Myogen was announced in Oct 2006, GILD has lost approx $2.5 bln in market cap because investors have viewed the acquisition as dilutive. Firm believes there are two flaws in this logic: 1) investors are overlooking the strength of GILD's HIV franchise; and 2) they believe it is too early to pronounce that the Myogen deal will be dilutive in the long term.
Gilead Sciences tgt upped to $80 at Stifel following earnings (64.32 ) -Update : Stifel raises their GILD tgt to $80 from $74 following Q4 earnings that came in above their and consensus estimates. Firm says the discrepancy is due primarily to higher than estimated revenues from sales of Truvada, Atripla, and royalties. The believe unrealized strength lies in Gilead's pulmonary franchise, and anticipate approval and marketing for Ambrisentan in 4Q07.
Bob Pasani Speaks with President Bush
Hat tip Adam.
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Len: Steal My Sunshine
Leaving early today. See you fuckers tomorrow.
Bernanke is the Man
After seeing Bush on the floor, I had a feeling something good would happen today.
Basically, if you are short-- you must cover.
I like the action in the Retailers, specifically LOW, HD and ANF.
Also, BA and its derivative plays LMIA, SPR and BEAV look great.
If you have an aerospace suggestion, leave a comment.
Fly Buy: NTRI
UPDATE: I bought 1,000 NTRI @ $44.42.
Disclaimer: If you buy NTRI because of this post, your wife will divorce you. And, you may lose money.
Position Updates: SNDK, NTRI
In my humble opinion, I feel SNDK is a sell and NTRI is a buy.
If you own SNDK, cut the fucker loose and take the loss like a man. With my remaining shares, I will hold it until zero. Don't ask why. I am genetically flawed and do stupid things all the time.
However, if you own NTRI-- I suggest drinking excessively and wait for the fucker to settle in. Considering you are now broke, you can not afford to be drinking Johnny Walker Blue. Instead, go with the Jack Daniels-- straight. No coke or club soda. Drink it right out of the fucking bottle, like a NYC hobo.
As for me, I will continue to throw fucking darts at Steve Jobs' face, since his God forsaken stock doesn't go up any longer.
UPDATE: Look for a big stock buyback on NTRI-- sometime soon.
Sector Spotlight: Gold
Aside from Gold, the homebuilders are gapping, with outsized gains in LEV (bought out), WCI and BXG.
Food and Beverage stocks are green, with PNRA, WBD and SPTN leading the way.
The Trannies are on fucking fire, with gains in CHRW, LSTR, GBX and RAIL.
My point: Big money is rotating out of Tech into other sectors. Aside from a few Networker stocks and RIMM, nothing in techville seems to be working.
Personally, I do not like the Semi's, but I do not believe they are done going higher. Tech is taking a temporary respite, until earnings season is over. After all, being heavily long Tech going into earnings is equal to swimming in a swamp-- populated with fucking alligators.
Finally, I do not think the Fed will raise rates in 2007. Furthermore, I believe rates are too high. Should rates go lower, Lehman Brothers 20 yr bond etf (TLT) should crawl higher.
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Bobby Valentino: Slow Down
Today, BWLD got poleaxed early, but recovered most of its losses late in the day. I believe BWLD is done going down.
Despite what some of my sources say, I do not like the action in NTRI. However, at this price level, the stock is now a value play.
As for today's trading:
I get the feeling the bulls are fixing to fuck the shorts. Despite all the negatives, the market keeps crawling higher. Therefore, I will likely close out my MZZ position-- sometime this week.
Today, we saw tremendous gains in Oil/Natural gas stocks. I know that fucker with the bow tie (Jim Rogers) thinks oil is going to $100 per barrel. I can't agree with him, nor will I wear a bow tie. Never. Plus, he is too old to really know what the fuck is going on.
Finally, I continue to pound the Telecom drum-- like a primitive jungle man. Also, I like Foreign banks for a trade, specifically KB, SHG and NMR.
NOTE: SNDK reported a good number, but the stock is not jumping. Scary. And, AMLN posted crappy numbers.
UPDATE: I see NTRI guided up for Q4 and guided down for Q1. Basically, the stock is down another 6 in after hours. At this point, I want to throw hot pizza at Dan Marino. However, if you look at the numbers-- it's not that bad. They are upping guidance for this qurter by 5 mill and reducing next by 10. So, the net result is 5 million less in revenue. Big deal.
Considering the company has outrageous growth prospects and is now trading at a ridiculously low mulitple, I will be adding to my NTRI position.
First quarter alone, the company said it will earn between .82-.86 cents. Come on, do the math. This stock is down too much.
Fly Buy: BWLD
Disclaimer: If you buy BWLD because of this post, the IRS will make an example of you. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: VLO
Position Updates: TKC
The following look good today: TKC, PHI, TKG, USM and CHA.
For a full list, click here.
Sector Spotlight: Industrials
Oil looks great. But, next thing you know-- it craters and is for the asshats again. There are better places to invest, than to fuck around with the insane people who trade oil. Those people are not normal-- stay away.
Today, there is pockets of strength, especially in the Industrials. Stocks like ITW, TEX, PCP and BDK look great. I guess today's theme is to buy big, old companies with steady earnings.
Bottom line: There is definitely a bullish tone in today's trading. However, I won't be happy until AAPL goes green.
NOTE: Like many others, I was blindsided on NTRI. Because of my losses, I hope Dan Marino gains 300 pounds and explodes.
NOTE II: I hear MVIS is going on a roadshow next week.
The following Industrials have mojo:
Monday, January 29, 2007
If you are bored to death, like me, check these sites out for free movies:
However, it was a decent consolidation day, with most sectors green-- especially crazy Chinese stocks. Within the Chinese sector, I like FMCN, ZNH and XING.
Also, many Retailers did well, as oil got its fucking ass kicked, again. If you don't think oil is for asshats, then maybe you are a dicktard.
Finally, all of you fuckers should be very thankful to have someone like me deliver such insightful and philosophical thoughts on the markets. Without me, such terms like "asshat" or "dicktard" would never enter your pathetic lives. And, you probably would never witness some guy on the internets getting "machine gunned."
My point: You fat fuckers owe me. Go eat some Buffalo Wild Wings.
NOTE: I initiated my first bearish position, MZZ, for the first time in months-- I think.
Late Day Thought
Fly Buy: MZZ
Disclaimer: If you buy MZZ because of this post, you may anger God. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: TKC
Disclaimer: If you buy TKC because of this post, the next time you eat at McDonald's, you may slip on a pickle. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: SNDK
Fly Sell: TLAB
Fly Sell: EXP
Fly Sell: VSE
Quick Alert: Getting Blow the Fuck Up on BWLD
This stock is getting "machine gunned" by the analyst community, with three downgrades in two days. As a result, Broker A is getting ball & chained.
Today, apparently some Irish bucket shop/boiler room has downgraded BWLD, yet again, prior to the fucking holocaust of chickens-- aka The Super Bowl.
Buffalo Wild Wings: Hearing BWLD downgraded to Neutral at Dougherty (53.37 -1.45) :
If you own BWLD and do not like burning money for fun-- stop losses should be tightly monitored now. Who knows, maybe the fat fucks are going light on the BBQ sauce-- causing BWLD to fall short on numbers.
With my money, I am long the diet coke drinking fuckers and will stubbornly buy more as the stock "loses weight."
Fly Buy: BWLD
Disclaimer: If you buy BWLD because of this post, your wife or loved one will hate her Valentines Day present. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Japan
My favorite aggressive way to play the NIKKEI is through structured call warrants: NKZ-wt or NKI-wt.
Or, if you want to play the banking system directly, look at NMR and MTU.
Additionally, I like CAJ, SFTBF, ASGLY and KUB.
As for today's trading:
Even though the NASDAQ is lagging the DOW, I sense a bullish tone, so far. Naturally, with earnings due, one has to be careful not to poleax himself. Nonetheless, I like my chances on eating some bear liver this week.
Finally, I saw NWS took a 5% stake in RGRP.ob-- somewhat interesting. Also, as usual, I like the action in some of the Telecom stocks, especially GLDN, NZT, TKG, FRP and ROS.
NOTE: AAPL looks ready to punch some shorts' teeth out.
NOTE II: Please take the new "Fly Survey." Are you net long or short?
Position Updates: WU, AAPL
|08:30||AAPL Apple tgt increase details (85.38 ) -Update-|
|As mentioned at 8:05, Needham raised their tgt to $135 from $115 based on the iPhone. The firm thinks initial sales of the iPhone are likely to be modest because of its high price, but they think its price is likely to fall at a 20% annual rate in line with the decline in component costs and rising carrier subsidies. They think the decline in price should accelerate demand as the iPhone invades the sweet spot of the mobile phone market. With carrier subsidies, the iPhone should sell for around $75 in the final year of their forecast. They are forecasting sales of 135 mln iPhones in 2016, equivalent to a 7% market share.|