Friday, October 05, 2007
Anberlin - Paperthin Hymn
I have a meeting with some strange southerner (client) next week and I was thinking about offering him some greasy bbq pork ribs, as a gift. Do you think this is an appropriate gift or should I just go with the corn bread?
Hey, a short while ago, one of my Alabama clients gave me homemade jam and a giant bag of pecans. I didn't think it was weird. Perfectly normal.
Aside from this dilemma "The Fly" is faced with, I enjoyed the markets gains today, with big dicked gains in RIMM, FXI, CN, AEO, CALM, GLF, AAPL, GME and BWLD.
As you know, the bears are fucked, as everyone loves stocks again, despite really poor people defaulting on their loans.
Also, I still own SRS, despite it lighting my balls on fire. It's a hedge, relax--go eat a sandwich.
Finally, words cannot explain how fucked the iiG shorts are. There is a maniac investor, buying 300,000 share per week, upping his stake to 10% of the company, while more than 50% of the shares are sold short. Plus, the company has instituted a ridiculous share buyback, committed to buying back 30% of the company. Can you say squeeze?
For those who have made money with me on this one, "The Fly" will be invoicing you shortly.
Shotgun to the head pick: iiG
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, the next time you cook with olive oil, the entire bottle will fall and shatter onto the kitchen floor. And, you may lose money.
"You got beef with me"
Fly Buy: OIIM
Disclaimer: If you buy OIIM because of this post, your barber will accidentally shave the top of your head. And, you may lose money.
Position Update: MVIS
Microvision's development of the light engine behind its laser-based PicoP platform for cellphones is "more or less done" with a few "minor tweaks" needed, Product Applications Engineer Andrew Rosen said. The RGB lasers, with power in the "tens of milliwatts", are designed in a 1.57x0.79x0.28- inch package, Rosen said. The thickness could shrink to 0.20 to 0.24 inches by the time the first PicoP-based products reach market in late 2008, he said. PicoP is based on Microvision's microelectromechanical system (MEMS), consisting of minilasers and a tiny pivoting microscanner mirror that reflects light on a surface one pixel at a time, so fast a whole screen appears lit. Some work remains on the two ASICs that will handle the MEMS drive and laser feedback, he said. Much will depend on whether the lasers are made using a 45-nanometer process, said Rosen. The ASICs will operate at "several hundred" megahertz, but won't require the same clock speeds that digital signal processors need for HDTV, he said. "It comes down to what scale do we want the ASICs and what the interface is," he said. The lasers have "stabilized" since being demonstrated in May at the Society for Information show, with work moving to a third version of the green laser, he said. The red laser remains 20 to 30 nanometers from the targeted "sweet spot," Rosen said. Hitting that sweet spot could increase brightness four to five lumens, he said. The prototype PicoP demonstrated at CEATEC features 10 to 12 lumens and 854x480 resolution. "Where we are limited right now is red," Rosen said. "Most commercially available red lasers are not in the sweet spot because they are optimized for DVD or something else," Rosen said. Osram, Novalux and Corning have been developing lasers for the PicoP platform - Novalux and Corning focusing on green. Microvision's nonexclusive development pact with Motorola for cellphones is "progressing nicely" said Rosen, declining further comment. Cellphone development cycles usually run about 12 months. Microvision demonstrated a laser-based heads-up display it's designing with Visteon for vehicular applications. In vehicles, the laser is housed in the dashboard and bounced off an aspheric mirror to project an image on the windshield. The brightness required is about the same as for cellphones, but the resolution is about 200x300 vs. 854x480, Rosen said. "We take 200x300 in, do the image manipulation out to 800x600 and then downstep it again," Rosen said. "That's how we get the accuracy and the ability to twist" the image.-- Mark Seavy
"Deagle, Degal, Deagal, Deagal, Deagal"
Quick Alert: "The Donald" is on Fire
Sector Spotlight: INDIANS IN 5
However, who am I to judge? Last time I checked, I drove my dynamite filled shit mobile into a mountain of uneaten NTRI food, yesterday.
Today's gain in RIMM helps erase my NTRI "endeavor." However, I am treating this NTRI shit separately-- and will use the proceeds of the NTRI sales to recover losses. I intend to accomplish this task, amongst others, within the month.
I'll have you know, "The Fly" is consuming his first cup of coffee (Dunkin' in a 'Buck cup), in over a month. As you know, because of this "newz," MVIS will trade higher.
Also, I'm digging VMI here, ahead of numbers. Next stop: $99.99. And, I started a position in TBL, ahead of cold weather. The stock has been obliterated, as of late. I'm looking for a bounce.
Finally, "The Fly" is handing out beat downs to bearshitters in BWLD. If you care to receive one, sell short a few thousand and prepare to get your chest cavity stomped.
Indians in 5.
Fly Buy: BWLD
Disclaimer: If you buy BWLD because of this post, the Yankees will win another World Series. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: TBL
Disclaimer: If you buy TBL because of this post, global warming will eliminate all occurrences of snow. And, you may lose money.
Stock Spammers from the 1800's
Somethings never change.
Thursday, October 04, 2007
Position Update: BWLD
Buffalo Wild Wings: Success of Ohio teams could drive Q4 sales trends - Merriman (41.15 +2.48) : Merriman notes that approx 20% of BWLD chains are in Ohio. Firm says with the success of the Cleveland Indians and increased optimism for the Cleveland Browns, hometown sports teams should help drive customer traffic. After finishing in 11th place last year in the American League, the Indians are now in the AL Playoffs for the first time since 2001. There is also renewed optimism for the Browns with a 2-2 start. Given the difficult YoY Q4 sales comparisons, firm believes continued success from each team could boost optimism for BWLD shares going into the end of the year. Firm has a potential valuation of $45-$50 on the shares.
Eat them wings you mid-western jack-offs.
Jungle Brothers - I'll house you
New goal on the board: "make up the 12.5 points lost on this NTRI shit, within a month."
Just happy to be alive, balls and all.
Position Update: NTRI
I don't trust the company anymore.
Fuck them and may Dan Marino get hit with a bag of shit.
That's called gambling.
Although I believe the company will post record numbers, it is priced for perfection.
In short, if my cost basis wasn't $18, I'd pare down the position here, just in case.
If you are not the "paring down" type of idiot, consider protective puts.
If you don't like to protect anything, get your blade out and prepare to do battle with some filthy bears.
Position Update: OEH, HANS, CN
Aside from the fuck faces at NTRI, life is somewhat lukewarm.
Position Update: MVIS
From what I understand, the price will be lower for larger orders. The company has a small sales team in place, in order to get some fucking orders.
Frankly, I'm not too confident of MVIS's ability to sell the ROV, internally. Perhaps it makes sense to outsource the sales aspect to boilers rooms-- that know how to get product out the door.
If anything, this product launch should reduce the company's burn rate. If only FDX would buy a few hundred thousand of these fuckers; then we'd be in business.
Get your ROV scanner here.
Quick Alert: Someone Punched off Willie Randolph's Mustache
Position Update: iiG
The squeeze continues.
Position Update: CALM
Egg shortage looming. Need I say more?
Milk the egg producers.
NOTE: Get your USDA egg price and supply/demand updates here.
"Have a peek at this"
By the way...
The market is my bitch. However, every once in awhile, it tries to run away and act all uppity and shit. This is the part where I pimp smack her-- and tell her to "get back to the hotel and make me my money."
Fly Buy: CALM
Disclaimer: If you buy CALM because of this post, PETA will endorse animal cruelty. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: BWLD
Disclaimer: If you buy BWLD because of this post, the CEO of NTRI will become the new CEO of your favorite company. And, you may lose money.
How hard can his business be?
You would think with all the lazy fat fuckers in the world, a company that delivers food to them would thrive.
But no, not NTRI. They cite competitive challenges from some stupid drug that makes you shit your pants. Gee that's great fat people. Go ahead and lose some weight, while shitting your pants waiting for your second serving of meatloaf.
This whole debacle has me gun shy, afraid of putting my head in the guillotine. As you know, "The Fly" had this coming, with his chest thumping claims of grandeur.
Nonetheless, I still can't fathom how NTRI could drop the ball this badly. My hatfucking sources on NTRI insist this is a "blip" and that things should get back on track, during 2008.
Taking the lower end of NTRI's guidance of $2.48, at 15 x earnings, the stock should trade up to $37. If given a 22 multiple, like WTW, the price target is $54.
In short, the stock is a screaming buy down here. Whoop-dee- fucking-dooo.
As a result of this beat down, "The Fly" has decided to sell his RIMM trade from yesterday, instead of "riding it out" through earnings. However, it's worth noting, RIMM is still a top 5 position of mine, with a cost basis in the teens.
Aside from the "inferno of fun" I am playing in, I like the tone of today's market. I am enjoying gains in OEH, NOEC, BBY, LMT and RIMM. On a dip, I want to own BWLD, JCG and VMI.
Fly Sell: RIMM
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Beware of Bubbles, when in their seventh week
Many bubble cycles peak out-- after the seventh week of upward momentum.
From nano-tech, to beverage craze to ethanol fun-- to China?
Late Night Thought
Bob Marley: Stir it Up
"The Fly" doesn't give a shit. This stock can drop 60 points and I'll still be up 100%.
Today, as you know, "The Fly" bought a basket of crazy Chinese stocks. To celebrate this event, I will be dining at Red Robster tonight, where quality is scarce, yet robster abundant.
The whole China thing is fun. What the fuck?
I'm up so much this year, why not throw a few lotto tickets into the barrel of fire?
If I fuck up and lose money, I'll make it back, within seconds.
Today's buys included CAAS, XFML, NOEC and JADE.
Basically, "The Fly" made buckets of coin today, as HANS, BWLD and OEH catapulted higher.
I endured small set backs in NTRI, FXI, RS and CORS.
In short, I have no fucking idea what the employment numbers will look like. Moreover, I could care less.
I'm far too busy celebrating gains in HANS and BWLD (top 5 position), than to fuck around and worry about unemployed fucktards.
Late Day Thought
Monster Energy Party
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, the IRS will put a lien on your house. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: JADE
Disclaimer: If you buy JADE because of this post, the unemployment numbers will be bad. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: NOEC
Disclaimer: If you buy NOEC because of this post, the Chicom bubble will burst, today. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: NTRI
Disclaimer: If you buy NTRI because of this post, Cramer will put a "sell, sell, sell" on your biggest position. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: XFML
Disclaimer: If you buy XFML because of this post, your refrigerator will stop working. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: BWLD
Disclaimer: If you buy BWLD because of this post, the Yankees will beat the Indians. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: RIMM
Disclaimer: if you buy RIMM because of this post, the North Pole will turn to ice, again. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: China
If any of you fuckers missed the dot com bubble from 1998-2000, the recent Chinese stock melt up is almost identical. One day, most of these stocks will peak and start to destroy the net worths of the fucktarded investor class, but not yet.
Looking at my position sheet, I am part of that fucktarded investor class.
Currently, I have a large position in FMCN, decent size position in CN and small dice rolling positions in XFML and CAAS. Also, it's worth noting, I still have 200 shares of EJ.
Fun times to be a Beijing broker. "The Fly" may have to move to China, in order to bank a little more coin.
Did you know 30% of BWLD's restaurants are in Ohio?
Did you know the Cleveland Indians are playing the New York Yankees in the playoffs?
Trust me when I say, the restaurants will be packed for the games. Should the Indians beat the Yanks, expect the stock to rip higher.
Yes, it's that simple.
Also, are you aware of the egg shortage in America?
As a result of high feed prices and pressure by animal rights groups, like PETA, egg production is on the decline. Many egg producers are scaling back production, due to the uncertainty of feed prices and have opted to go "cage free." Free range chicken is all the rage.
How fucking queer.
Nonetheless, CALM (biggest producer of eggs in the U.S.) has been on fire, thanks to a significant rise in egg prices. Should supply remain low and PETA have its way, CALM can continue to steam roll higher.
Finally, many of you internet fools do not understand the MVIS story. Just know this, should MVIS have a Picop that is ready or "almost ready" for commercialization by CES (January, '08), the stock will be double digits. Right now, the only ambiguity about the technology is whether the engineers can get the wattage low enough to mesh with the electronics of a handset. From what I understand, the company is ahead of schedule, with regards to technological advancement of the Picop, and should stun the crowds at CES in January.
If MOT will present jointly with MVIS, the press may anoint MVIS King of the mini projector. We shall see.
Fly Buy: CAAS
Disclaimer: If you buy CAAS because of this post, Chinese people will stop buying stocks. And, you may lose money.
"You know how stupid he looks"
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Late Night Thought
UPDATED THOUGHT: The ticker symbol would be SHRNKY, an ADR of course.
Benny Goodman - Moonglow
The trade was a loser. I should have covered it a few days ago. Unfortunately, I let hubris get in the way of good money management--always a bad idea.
Also, at the end of the day, I bought some RIMM, despite having a cost basis in the teens. As you know, the company is due to report earnings on Thursday. From what I hear, this will be RIMM's best quarter ever.
In short, as much as I disdain frothiness in stocks I do not own, this market is going higher. It's a fucking runaway freight train, with a nuclear bomb on board.
Get out of the way.
As oil continues to slide, I like BWLD even more.
Finally, iiG never goes down, ever.
Position Update: LLNW
What the fuck is going on here?
For example: can someone explain why LVS and WYNN are up 50% this month, while BYD sucks balls? I mean, has everyone, overnight, had an epiphany and decided to go gamble away the family nest egg?
What the fuck?
And, how about BIDU, GS, OSTK, VERT, CIEN, LULU and all of the Chinese Solar Burrito stocks?
Don't get me wrong, I enjoy a bull market and love to kick old men off the upper deck at Yankee Stadium; but this move is too much.
Some of these fucking stocks are in for a rude and brutal "talking to." However, at the same time, there are some cheap stocks worth buying, such as IVAC, JCG, BWLD, iiG, NTRI and MVIS.
In short, this is one of those times, when everything feels good, then bamm; you get your nose broken by Mother Market.
SPECIAL EXCLUSIVE VIDEO: Woodshedder and his people
No wonder us Yankees kicked your ass in the Civil War.
Fly Sell: LAZ
Disclaimer: If you sell short LAZ because of this post, you will get swimmers ear. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: SRS
Disclaimer: If you buy SRS because of this post, your house will endure a blackout. Just your house. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: UNG
Fly Sell: VMC
Sector Spotlight: Homies
Most of the important sectors are down, such as industrial, oil, chemical, defense and semiconductors. In other words, the people who were betting on recession, via short financials, homies and retail, are running for their lives--as if a rabid Tasmanian devil were chasing them.
In a way, it's sad, but mainly funny.
With the market at new highs, the short covering can continue, indefinitely.
Also, it's worth noting, we are seeing a major bump in natural gas prices. While "The Fly" likes higher natty, since he is long UNG, it may hurt other sectors, especially chemical related stocks.
Should natty continue to melt up, look for stocks like TNH, LZ and DD melt away.
Finally, I'm not a fucking fan of the homies. I'm not buying them. However, I do own a schlocky land development company, AXR. If the homebuilder squeeze continues, AXR will print $35-40, effectively killing its super sized short position.
China Stocks are Fucking Toppy
In my opinion, this is the encore, before a disastrous decline, which will leave many of you internet trading banana peelers penniless.
In order to expedite your future bankruptcy, "The Fly" offers you his "China Stock List."
Enjoy and eat well.
NOTE: EJ is on fire.
Monday, October 01, 2007
John Coltrane - My Favorite Things
The usual suspects lifted today, including solar, chinese and internet related names. By the way, OSTK is on one hell of a run.
Fuck you Herb Greenberg.
In addition, I liked the action in the retail sector, especially JCG, ZUMZ and SHLD. "The Fly" may start buying SHLD.
Finally, this fucking MVIS reminds me of the New York Mets. Lots of hype and promise, yet the team and stock fail to perform. Hopefully, Tokman doesn't turn out to be a Willie Randolph.
If anyone from Microvision is reading this (I know you are), you cannot go on a news blackout like this. It's not fair to your investors and it wreaks of weakness. Aside from managing the business, it's important to manage the stock too. That's right, manage the stock. Give your investors a bone; otherwise, they will dump you like a dirty heroin needle.
4th Quarter starts off with a decapitation, now what?
In my experience, the beginning of a quarter is very important, in order to set the tone. Without doubt, today's rally is just the tip of the iceberg, barring a really bad set of economic numbers.
With my money, I have done nothing. Sometimes the best strategy is to do nothing. Let your winners win and hope for your losers to wake up.
Now, don't get me wrong, I do not endorse holding losers indefinitely. However, if you have done some decent research and feel the stock can work, give it a shot. Buy more on declines.
Often times, beaten down stocks, with good fundamentals and high short interest, can turn into major winners, like RIMM, AAPL, EBAY or even MVIS.
All good companies go through periods of duress. The key, of course, is to identify a mistake in how the market is pricing a particular distressed stock.
As you know, "The Fly" has a list.
So, to wrap things up, just chill out. Grab a fucking glass of Scotch and drink yourself into an Irish stupor, instead of over managing your bullshit portfolios.
Position Update: FXI, XFML
After all, it's China. How could I go wrong investing in China?
In other "newz," thank you "Joe" for posting silly shit in the comments section on XFML. As you know, "The Fly" bought a thousand and is up 10%, today. All thanks to the wonderful communist cock suckers in China. Long live communist China and their fucking stocks.
Steaks are on "Joe."
NOTE: In honor of "Joe," I put my China stock list on the side bar, titled "Fly's China Stock List." Enjoy investing in China, despite the lack of fresh robster served at their restaurants.
Sector Spotlight: Internet
How about this market?
The banks are telling us they are screwed, thanks to subprime. The dollar is a joke and commodity prices are exploding to the upside. Yet, the market is poised to make new highs.
The lesson: timing the market, based upon macroeconomic trends, is always a money loser. You're better off following price action, with conservative asset allocation.
Thus far, internet related names are on fire, with gains in TZOO, SCOR, OSTK, CTRP, RATE, GOOG, KNOT and SINA.
In short, the 4th quarter is the time to own internet related names, partly due to online shopping.
With my money, I like ERTS, iiG, BWLD and NTRI.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
No excuses. No "but Willie did this" or "Willie a great guy." Fuck you, he's fired.
Just like the real world business, politics or war, when the guy in charge fucks up, he must fall on his stupid slimy sword.
Instead of Willie, I suggest letting Andrew Dice Clay be the new manager of the Mets. At least Dice will tell the umpires, opposing teams or his own lazy ballplayers to go fuck themselves, every once in awhile.