Friday, December 01, 2006


Young Lloyd: You


Richard Simmons' Exploding Steamer



Closing Comments

Towards the end of the trading session, the dip buyers weighed into the sellers hard-- forcing the fuckers to scramble and cover their shorts. I must say, I was thoroughly impressed with the rally.

Again, I remain uber bullish on oil and feel the price per barrel will eclipse $70, by years end.

All in all, I had a tough week-- down 1.5%. However, I feel confident my overweight oil positions will make up the difference next week.

NOTE: Over the weekend, I will run some screens to help identify some good "dip-buying" opportunities.

Have a great fucking weekend.


Fly Sell: CSWC

I sold 200 CSWC @ $127.88.


Fly Buy: UPL

I bought 5,000 UPL @ $54.09.

UPDATE: I bought 5,000 UPL @ $54.15

Disclaimer: If you buy UPL because of this post, the paint on your yacht may chip. And, you may lose money.


Fly Sell: SMDI

I sold 5,000 SMDI @ $8.77.


Sector Spotlight: Energy

Once again, the dollar is getting poleaxed. However, this time, owners of U.S. equities are getting punished for it.

If this doesn't stop, I will be forced to sell all sorts of long positions and go short, in a BIG way. But, considering my recent experiences, short U.S. equities, I think I'll wait until the market confirms a breakdown.

I still like the oil patch. Moreover, I feel it is the best way, aside from buying FXE, to hedge the dollar decline.

For now, prepare for lower stock prices.

NOTE: Within oil/gas. I like VLO, PTEN, UPL, SWN and NGAS the best.

The following Energy stocks have mojo:

AEN +7.3%
SYMN +4.1%
NGS +2.7%
JDO +2.7%
DO +2.1%
CCJ +2.1%


Position Updates: VLO

Via Briefing:

BofA raises estimates on refiners; VLO top pick

Banc of America reits their positive view of the Refiners, despite the recent rally. Firm sees room for a 10% further rally, and says VLO remains their top pick while SUN replaces TSO as their #2 pick. Firm says refining margins recovered near $10/bl following extended maintenance, with utilization near 88% for over six weeks. At these levels they see steady profitability supporting the sector through to its expected seasonal March rally, and raise their 2006-07 earnings estimates 5-10% on avg due to higher margins coming out of Q4.

Thursday, November 30, 2006


Cary Brothers: Ride (Live)


Closing Comments

Even though I enjoyed nice gains in VIP, EXP, RIMM and several other stocks, I can't get excited about today's trading session. With the wheelbarrow dollar losing value everyday, the market is vulnerable to a sharp selloff.

At the same time, I feel the energy sector is the only place to invest, right now. It is an effective hedge on a declining dollar and may hold value in the face of a broad market decline.

Today, I witnessed a mind boggling run up in the Homebuilders. Stocks like SPF, PHM and MTH flash fried the "broketarded" shorts. I still feel CORS and EXP are great ways to play the Homebuilders, without actually having build the fuckers.

In addtition to the "homies," select Metal stocks had big gains, such as ERS and TIE. I suspect takeover speculation is fueling those fires.

Bottom line: Today had the feel of major short covering, instead of natural buyers. Until the dollar firms, I will stick with the oils.

NOTE: Can someone get this for me.


Fly Buy: MVIS

I bought 4,500 MVIS @ 2.60.

Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, the Government may seize your house and build a post office on it. And, you may lose money.


Fly Buy: PTEN

I bought 5,000 PTEN @ $27.70.

Disclaimer: If you buy PTEN because of this post, you may get abducted by space invaders and "probed" on their rocket ship. And, you may lose money.


Fly Buy: NGAS

I bought 10,000 NGAS @ $7.92.

Disclaimer: If you buy NGAS because of this post, you may be an asshole dip buyer. And, you may lose money.


Sector Spotlight: Energy

Am I the only one worried about the wheelbarrow dollar?

Granted, my piddly FXE position is doing just fine, long the fucktarded Euro. But, I am starting to really worry about having to bring a wheelbarrow to my local mall this holiday shopping season, in order to buy some iPods.

Keep a close eye on the FXE. Should it continue to go higher, U.S. indices will get rocked.

As for Oil:

I have a simple theory. As the dollar trades lower, oil has to trade up. Oil is a dollar denominated commodity. Moreover, it's not a coincidence to see oil prices jack higher, as our currency melts away. After all, the fuckers in the middle east want to get paid a fair price, right? The problem they have is the wheelbarrow dollar. The fucker keeps going lower, they're getting ripped off. Hence, oil trades up. Get it?

Anyway, I did some research and identified, what I consider, the "cheapest" energy stocks publicly traded. If you don't know by now, oil is going higher.

Here is my short list:


Please take the new "Fly Survey." Cramer: Good or Bad?

Wednesday, November 29, 2006


Cramer Defends Himself, via E-mail

Cramer responds to website that rips his mad "advice" to shreds.

Funny stuff.


Ciara: Promise


Closing Comments

Don't ask how I do it-- I just do. I dodged a Merril Lynch fuck you on SNDK, by selling the fucker over the last two days, and I added to my VLO position-- which gapped higher today.

In a nutshell: I just had a bad feeling about SNDK-- after watching the bitch trade over the past week.

Additionally, I am really bullish on the Energy complex now-- mainly because it is contrarian. Everyone I know believes oil is heading lower. Therefore, I think it goes back to $70.

With regards to VLO: Their crack spreads are widening and they should be able to blow away numbers this quarter. Long term, I feel the stock will trade up to $75.

As for today's trading:

Very good for everything but Financials, Trannies and select Semi's. My bear friends believe the market cannot go up, without the trio. Moreover, they feel today's run up was part of a grand scheme to sucker the novice into top ticking high multiple growth stocks.

To them I say:

The jokes on you, pal. The market just cut your balls off and made you its bitch.


Late Day Thought

The bears have been emasculated.


Sector Spotlight: Wireless

So far, the dip buyers have retaken control of the market and have subjected the sellers to the "whipping post," once again. We are enjoying a broad market rally, with the exception of SNDK.

Again, I like the action in the Energy sector and suggest adding to quality names, such as VLO, SU, CEO or SWN.

As for the Wireless sector:

It happens to be on fire today. Spearheaded by VIP (a position of mine), the Wireless sector, for the most part has been overlooked this year. Moreover, stocks like VIP, NIHD and IDCC have performed nothing less than stellar.

The following Wireless stocks have mojo:

WTT +13%
VIP +6.8%
TPC +5%
AMT +4.1%
LEAP +3.4%
AMX +2.6%
GRRF +2.5%

NOTE: Foreign telco's are also looking very strong today. Perhaps it has something to do with the wheelbarrow dollar.


Quick Alert: Merril Sinking SNDK

Merril out with a note this morning to "short" SNDK and go long MU. They also made positive comments on FORM and LRCX.

When it comes to research, monkey's throwing shit at the Wall Street Journal are more accurate than Merril. Nonetheless, I thought some of you would like to know why SNDK is down this morning.

Tuesday, November 28, 2006


Flyleaf: Fully Alive


Closing Comments

Thanks to the tenacious dip buyer, all indices closed higher. However, I am not getting too excited, considering it was only a 0.3% move in the S&P.

Also, I really like the action in the oil/gas stocks, especially ahead of the expected cold front heading towards NYC.

Bottom line: We bounced today, but didn't poleaxe the sellers. My guess is for decisive direction by the end of the week. Until then, I will not short any stocks in size.


Quick Alert: Bears Now Hunting Bulls

I sense a sentiment change and all of my bear friends are predicting the end of civilization-- as we know it. While it's true, the dollar decline is alarming, these Elliot Wave guys are calling for a 40% drop in the DOW.

Fuck those Elliot guys, who want to inherit a scorched earth.

However, I do suggest taking on some hedges and booking those profits, while you can.


Sector Spotlight: Energy

So far, I don't like what I am seeing in the market. There is a lot of red in leadership tech names, particularly in the Semi's. However, I am also scared to go short, because of the asshole dip buyer. So, the only thing left to do is reduce my long exposure and buy oil.

Many people I know feel buying oil is almost as good as hedging against the market. As many of you know and understand, if oil keeps pressing higher-- the general market will react negatively, yet oil stocks will trade up. This exact scenario played itself out over and over in 2005.

Bottom line: Buying VLO may be a chickenshit way of hedging against a Tech decline. We will see.

The following Energy stocks have mojo:

BQI +6.4%
GGR +6.2%
TTES +5.2%
GMXR +5%
MGPI +4.3%
HES +4.3%
DWSN +4.2%


Fly Buy: MVIS

I bought 10,000 MVIS @ $2.61.

Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, canned salesmen may appear at your house to sell you a 2nd hand vaccuum. And, you may lose money.


Fly Buy: VLO

I bought 10,000 VLO @ $52.77.

UPDATE: I bought 5,000 VLO @ $52.85

Disclaimer: If you buy VLO because of this post, Santa Claus may "accidentally" carpet bomb your house this Christmas. And, you may lose money.


Fly Sell: CNVR

I sold 10,000 CNVR @ $4.72.


Fly Sell: SNDK

I sold 10,000 SNDK @ $44.77.

UPDATE: I sold 15,000 SNDK @ $44.71.

Monday, November 27, 2006


Gza: Liquid Swords


Closing Comments

Fuck me for not shorting stock on Friday. In my head, I knew it was the right thing to do-- but I held back.

I blame the fucking turkey for making me tired and lethargic. Fucking Thanksgiving cost me 100's of thousands of dollars-- and all I have to show for it is a lousy extra 5 pounds on my developing gut.

Days like this make me feel incredibly stupid. I mean, I saw the dollar decline and the frothiness in micro cap stocks, yet I did nothing but buy more. What am I fucking retarded or something?

I have very minor hedges, long MZZ and FXE-- but I wish I had more.

Just to recap:

If you own stocks today, you lost an amazing amount of money and will probably lose more tomorrow. Enjoy.

Every sector, but Gold and Oil, was hit hard and then hit again.

I am eyeballing SYNA and look forward to selling it short-- first thing tomorrow. As for my longs, I will give the market a chance to rebound. However, should it fail, I will draw down my positions and add to my shorts-- in order to hedge and lick my wounds.


Fly Sell: SNDK

I sold 5,000 SNDK @ $45.44.


Position Updates: MVIS, SNDK

Okay, I am getting poleaxed and I don't like it. As many of you know, deep down I was scared of the markets unstoppable bull run and unwillingly covered my shorts, in favor of going long high multiple growth stocks. So far, I am ahead on that move. But, at this break-neck pace, I will be eating red-- sometime very soon.

MVIS announced a special shareholder meeting. My take is blah-- big non-event. They are not issuing new stock, yet. Again, this is a diceroll with enormous upside. However, they do have liquidity constraints and this move will address that--sometime down the road.

SNDK is getting its fucking ass kicked-- all over Wall Street today. Frankly, I fucking hate the stock and wished I would have sold it. I am going to mull over my risk/reward scenario on SNDK and update later.


Quick Alert: Where are the Dip-Buyers?

I suppose this post is not really an alert, more like a fucktarded question. Now, even though I feel today's selloff is unwarranted, let's not forget how much this market has gained in recent months, especially micro cap stocks.

Whenever the garbage floats to the top, a selloff is near. Frankly, over the last two weeks, plenty of bullshit stocks have run. Now it's time for those fuckers to get checked.

However, considering how persistent the dip buyer has been, I wouldn't be surprised to see the buyers initiate buying programs by days end.

Bottom line: The sellers must keep the indices deep in the red in order to make a statement. If not, they will get poleaxed tomorrow.


Sector Spotlight: U.S. Dollar

The fucking dollar needs to stop going down. This morning, the shitty greenback is marking fresh lows versus the Euro and it's bringing out all the fucking doomsdayers and giving them a chance to spew their crap-garbage.

According to these fuckers, we will all need wheelbarrows of dollars to buy bread and iPods. The U.S. economy is built on pig shit and its stock markets are 90% overvalued.

Fucking, fucker idiots.

Aside from the dollar, WMT is leading the Retailers lower, mainly because they suck. Additionally, Tech stocks are trading lower, with the exception of AAPL, as investors fear this years holiday shopping will not impress.


WMT is not reason to sell. The economy is chugging along just fine and the mobs at BBY are as dense as ever. If we trade lower for a few sessions, I will be delighted to buy cheaper stock.

For now, I remain bullish and I laugh and spit at the doomsdayers.

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DISCLAIMER: This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any FINRA broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.