Saturday, May 12, 2007
Weekend Blogger Book Review, Part II
When I asked Broker what the ingredients of a great trader were, I was a bit surprised by his answer. In his response, "The Fly" noted that he had more faith in fundamental analysis than in technical analysis-- but that wasn't terribly surprising. We already know that Broker's approach is largely based on the identification and prediction of the kinds of macroeconomic trends that are likely to benefit the stocks of quality companies. As such, it should also come as no surprise that he considers conference calls and the anecdotal evidence that we gather as consumers to be of great importance. But I was surprised by the idea that books weren't enormously helpful in his own journey to become a great trader. (Usually, you can ask any trader what their favorite books are, and they'll be more than happy to fire off a long list.) Despite this, he was able to offer me one suggestion: that I should "read Dan Reingold's new book [Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst] to see how Wall Street really works."
I was a bit surprised that he recommended a book about corruption on Wall Street, since I was probing for something a little more along the lines of "How to Make Money Hand Over Fist." Nevertheless, I thought that the book would be a good read if only for its account of the professional life of a sell-side analyst and its unique perspective on the tech (or in this case, telecom) bubble. In fact, this book report was going to briefly summarize and then explore those accounts. However, after spending some time writing this report and letting the book fully digest, I now believe that the real take-away from it lies in the fact that it forces us to think about a reality that is both emotionally difficult for individual investors to honestly confront and also profoundly important-- the idea that the average investor is hopelessly disadvantaged.
Having read both Liar's Poker and Den of Thieves in the past few months, I knew that Reingold's book would probably conclude with a warning to the individual investor, something like, "Wall Street is completely corrupt, and the only people that are making any money are the insiders who are trading on the kind of material, non-public information that small dicks like you won't get until it's too late." Sure enough, Broker went on to comment that "the sad truth is, the average investor is at an extreme disadvantage to the big dogs. Valuable information is passed along everyday, while Joe Schmo on Fast Money recommends YHOO before earnings."
Now that I've had some time to reflect on that message, I think I'm starting to appreciate the gravity of that statement (a statement that, given how discouraging it is, most of us -- myself included -- would like to simply "put on the shelf"). Now, it certainly is true that the pikers out there love to use the corruption on Wall Street as an excuse for their losses in the market. You know the people I'm talking about-- the ones who blame their stupid trades on the effects of insider trading, dishonest accounting, or "the unlawful and evil manipulation of the market by hedge fund managers." You've surely heard those excuses before, and you probably just wrote them off as huge exaggerations of the real impact that those things have. After all, how often do they really come into play? Admittedly, they probably do cause the unwashed to lose money every now and then, making the playing field at least somewhat uneven; but at the end of the day, the field is still even enough to play on, isn't it?
Honestly, I'm not sure. Even I'm beginning to doubt whether I could ever crush the averages year after year as "The Fly" does (and I'm neck and neck with the S&P, so I don't really have any reason to be as bitter and cynical as the pikers are). Don't get me wrong -- I'm sure that there are a few retail investors who do really well...but how many of them are there? Looking around at all of the other blogs, it's evident that even with a lot of effort, most of the average investors out there (of which Fly on WallStreet's reader base is largely composed) aren't making the cut. So let's call a spade a spade: how many of you can honestly claim that you've done anywhere near as well as Broker has over the past few years? How many of you can even claim that you're doing as well as he is this year? I'll be the first to admit that I don't even come close in either case. That being so, I think that we might benefit from taking a good, long look at what our realistic potential as retail investors might be (and how we might achieve that potential).
In the next part of the article, I'll try to expand on the topic and explain why I'm optimistic that the average investor can be successful in the market. Until then, I hope that everyone will offer their own opinion on these matters. Where do you stand on the individual investor's potential to succeed (as opposed to the potential of a well-connected professional money manager)? What have you found that works on Wall Street? To what extent is the average investor disadvantaged?
"More on this later-- I'm busy playing Counter-Strike."
Weekend Blogger Book Review, Part I
Yeah, I know that a book report probably sounds really boring to you. I know that the very idea of it makes you want to riot as if you were a young, unemployed Parisian; but I'm pretty sure that those of you that are humble and eager to learn will appreciate it. After all, If Broker recommended the book to me, then it's probably worth your time to take a look at it too (unless you think you're smarter than Broker or something).
And that's what I'm bringing to the table today. I'm "generously" letting you in on something valuable that Broker communicated to me, and that's why I think that you'll want to read this. I'm banking on the fact that, since you probably visit this site every day for the same reason that I do (specifically, to catch a glimpse of what enables Broker to keep raping the markets), you'll be more than happy for any piece of the puzzle-- especially since Broker is too busy "countin' stacks" to spend much time sharing his secret recipe with the unwashed.
But before we begin...since many of you are only looking for a stock pick to bet the farm on (or to loudly criticize in an effort to oust the reigning champ and thereby secure your own weekend blogger position), here's a "sure thing" stock pick:
Jeremy Buy: BOA.V
I bought 10,000,069 BOA.V @ $102.88
Disclaimer: If you buy BOA.V because of this post, you and your promiscuous wife will have to make several more appearances on the Maury show to find the real baby daddy of your son, nine-year-old Tyrone Junior (criminal alias: "O.G. Super Murder").
Friday, May 11, 2007
Dashboard Confessional: Stolen
I know, many of you fucktards are thinking: "gee, that Fly guy is a dick with his accurate market calls" or "maybe this weekend, he will get run over by a sanitation truck." However, I'll have you know, such bad thoughts will only make matters worse for you, the average day trading flea. The stock God's love "The Fly" and often leave large bricks of cash in his brokerage account. Betting against me is equal to having a bar mitzvah in Iraq.
Finally, if a shotgun were put to my head, in order to extract one stock pick, I'd say: "sir, shoot me if you must, but before you do, go long MCHX."
NOTE: I believe Mr. Jeremy will be weekend blogging here this weekend. Stay tuned, fuckers.
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, your favorite pen will leak and destroy your favorite shirt. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: MCHX
Disclaimer: If you buy MCHX because of this post, the ice cream man will not visit your neighborhood, this summer. And, you may lose money.
Asshat of the Week Award: Banc of America
In short, Banc of America wooed William Ho, from "Piker Jackme," back in 2006. As a result, Mr. Ho released this gem, on April 24th, 2007:
Dendreon: Provenge approval likely as politics is a factor; efficacy a question - BofA (16.78 ) -Update : Banc of America anticipates an approval decision on Provenge by May 15th, under the condition of completing the Ph III IMPACT trial, and expect potential stock price appreciation in the near term. They understand that DNDN is well prepared for a potential launch and believe Provenge can be out on the market by late 2007. If approved, the firm sees potential upside to their price tgt to $29 (current tgt is $20), and if an approvable letter is received potential downside to $6.Asshat!
Although Mr. Ho tried to check his bullishness for DNDN with a cautionary $6 downside target, it is obvious he was drinking the DNDN beer.
Since then, the stock is down an amazing 70%, inside 3 weeks.
Hence, BofA deserves the "Asshat of the Week Award," for hiring William Ho, who just destroyed their entire biotechnology research department.
Quick Alert: Fuck You Shorts, You're Dead
Also, I'll have you know, staying short over the weekend is a bad idea. Who knows what the private equity assholes have planned for you, over this Mother's Day weekend? Perhaps a "Mothers Day Massacre" ?
So, while I sit here, chomping at a warm, not hot, slice of pizza, you are over there, squirming in your bullshit pleather chair from Staples--pissed at yourself for not covering your shorts yesterday.
Remember, during war, the Gov't likes to print lots of money. When the Gov't prints lots of money, inflation creeps up. Hence, all things priced in dollars go up in value, including stocks.
Plus, all of that speculative real estate money is sloshing into U.S. equities, which are incredibly cheap--compared to other asset classes.
Off to drink another very large mug of coffee.
Sector Spotlight: Energy
I see MCHX is running higher. Personally, I do not think the company will be publicly traded, within two years. They are a perfect acquisition target for YHOO. Both MCHX and YHOO have a very close relationship with one another, considering YHOO is MCHX's largest customer. Furthermore, if YHOO is interested in bulking up, their online ad space market share, buying MCHX is quick way to accomplish such asshattery.
Today, commodity related stocks are "deballing" the shorts, with incredibly painful gains in SHI, SNP, TXCO, TIE, ACH and KGC.
Basically, the tame inflation data, released today, has sharpened the bulls' horns.
With my money, I want to stay long the fat guy, via NTRI, BWLD and HANS. Moreover, I want to milk the fucking farmers, via LNN and maybe VMI.
Finally, on an apples to apples comparison, between AL and RS, RS should be trading north of $85 per share. Hence, "The Fly" will just sit around, eating large bowls of oatmeal (lightly sweetened and with milk), while buying RS--whenever he fucking feels like it.
NOTE: I will have an update on MVIS later.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
ODB: Brooklyn Zoo
Too busy silly closing comments. Just know this: you short sellers are as ignorant as this song.
Quick Alert: Short Sellers Feeling Brave
Fuck around and find yourself in a hole, Persian bear fucker.
Position Updates: MVIS
Click here to download the MVIS report.
Fly Buy: FMCN
UPDATE: I bought 1,000 FMCN @ $37.81.
Disclaimer: If you buy FMCN because of this post, the next time you drink more than 4 Monster Energy Soda's, your heart will stop. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Construction
My point: Construction stocks have been on fucking fire. Look at the steroid gains in FWLT, URS, MDR, FLR and GVA.
Aside from the above names, I have been doing some research on PLPC, IESC, LAYN, MTZ, NCS, PWR and WNG. Thus far, PLPC seems to have my attention. They are milking the "phone fuckers" at VZ for every penny they could get, laying cable for them.
As for today's trading:
We will probably enjoy a good punch to the nose today, mainly due to profit taking. As you know, I have built up a big cash position and will look to buy the dips, whenever I get the inclination.
Of course, if you are shorting stocks, be careful. The asshole dip buyer is lurking and will punch your fucking eyelashes off-- the first chance he gets.
NOTE: MVIS had a great conference call, last night. This is a dip worth buying. It sounds as if a major cell phone contract is no more than 3 months away. Ultimately, I feel this stock can push $7, on a big cell phone deal-- using their Picop technology.
Position Updates: LNN
NOTE: I have a conference scheduled with the CFO tomorrow afternoon. Therefore, if I feel like it, I might share some more info with you-- "the internet leech."
NOTE II: Wallstrip did a nice skit on LNN too.
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Smashing Pumpkins: Drown (Live)
No CC's today. Too busy.
Give em Up to the Almighty
Fly Buy: LNN
UPDATE: I bought 4,000 LNN @ $32.10
Disclaimer: If you buy LNN because of this post, your only daughter will marry a gangster rapper. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: RS
Disclaimer: If you buy RS because of this post, your neighbor's dog will destroy your vegetable garden. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Wireless
To make their argument sound intelligent, they (the bear fuckers) explain in long/run on sentences, how overvalued the shares of RIMM are and how its stock is going to drop 75%, literally any day. And yet, the stock proceeds to punch their fucking eyebrows off.
My point is this: Being too opinionated and static in your interpretation of value or froth is always a money loser. The market sets the price for stocks and at times can be incredibly efficient. Instead of "sticking to my guns," I have found "banking coin" to be much easier by being flexible and objective, with regards to value or froth. That's why I believe price action is king. Say what you want about PE ratio's or debt to equity ratio's, if the stock is trading up-- "The Fly" will be there to use it as his personal ATM machine.
As for today's trading:
Today has the look and feel of a bullish day. So far, I am seeing oversized gains in the Wireless sector, such as CELL, VIP, LEAP, RIMM and GLUU.
Also, Japanese companies are trading up, with impressive moves in CAJ, SNE, NMR and MTU.
"The Fly's" favorite way to play Japan is via NKI-wt (NIKKEI 225 call warrants).
Finally, I doubt the Fed will say anything to derail this market. Therefore, I feel it makes sense to stay long and avoid hedging. Additionally, "The Fly" is impressed with the psychotic weather patterns of the planet and will resume purchasing shares of LNN.
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Silversun Pickups: Lazy Eye
Personally, I am a tad bored with the market, despite my MVIS posting losses tomorrow.
Frankly, I have built up all this cash and have very little desire to invest it.
Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of stocks "The Fly" is bullish on. However, as of now, I'd rather eat large oatmeal cookies, while throwing cold coffee at my plasma television, which is currently airing CNBC.
After the close, my dice roll, called MCHX, posted decent numbers. Frankly, I could care less where the stock is trading or going.
Also, CSCO posted a good number. Look for that fucker to trade up, tomorrow.
Finally, whenever I get the inclination, I will buy LNN. Great story and good catalyst for the shares.
NOTE: The assholes from CHK just filed another shelf offering. There is no reason to ever own CHK.
Fly Buy: MCHX
Disclaimer: If you buy MCHX because of this post, the stock may halt trading and open down 30%. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: CLWR
Sector Spotlight: Metals
Taking into consideration the magnitude of this recent bull charge, we can sell off for 10 straight days, and still have a very healthy market.
Meaning: In order to restore an efficient market, it is important to bankrupt or poleax the weak and stupid.
With that being said, the Metals are, once again, on fire. Yesterday, I sold out of my CENX position-- for a decent profit. Further, I have been scouring the market for a cheap basic material stock-- for asset allocation purposes.
Thus far, I like RS-- and maybe RTI.
Aside from the metals, I am tempted to buy MCHX--ahead of tonight's numbers. However, they are highly levered to YHOO. You all know how I feel about YHOO.
Finally, the trading in HANS is plain ole' vanilla gay. Long ago, I have ceased trading HANS, due to its incredible volatility. Also, if CSCO's numbers are a blow out, ARUN, CAVM, FFIV and NETL may run in sympathy.
Position Updates: MVIS
As you know, "The Fly" was honest in saying that he himself would not buy, above $4.50. Well, here we are @ $4.12 and many of you same internet leeches are scared to buy the stock, due to recent weakness.
Look you fucking faggots, the story is the same @4.12 or $4.80. Eventually, I will chew off the arms of thousands of MVIS short sellers. If you have been waiting for an entry point, man up and consider these levels.
Or, you can play backgammon with your neighbor, while stuffing your fat face with angel food cake. Either course of action is entirely permissible with me.
Here is the news:
|08:32||MVIS Microvision awarded $3.2 mln contract by U.S. Air Force to advance development of lightweight, see-through color eyewear display (4.12 )|
|Co announces that it has been awarded a $3.2 mln contract by the U.S. Air Force, to provide a lightweight, see-through, full-color eyewear display prototype to the Government.|
Monday, May 07, 2007
See, it makes no sense betting against "The Fly," for he will find you and kill your livestock-- then burn your barn down to a cinder.
Aside from MVIS, which is trying to assassinate "The Fly," I had long dicked gains in AAPL, BWLD, CENX and GD.
As you know, I have been raising a bus load of cash, in order to buy the market-- whenever it decides to fucking go down. However, by the looks of it, I doubt the market will ever go down again.
Finally, during quiet times, I like to do some home work, in an effort to replenish my roster of stock holdings. So far, I have concluded that I will bulk up on my LNN position. Should there be a drought this summer, LNN will rip. Plus anyway, farmers are rich as beans now. LNN is likely to sell them some farm equipment, especially irrigation equipment, in size-- over the next 2 years.
The other stock I am researching is ALLT. This is a small deep packeting company with nearly $4 in cash, down 50% from its highs. From what I understand, their main competitor, Sandvine (listed on the LSE), blew away numbers and its stock is soaring. Should ALLT post good numbers, scheduled for Wednesday, the stock will be double digits.
Fly Buy: LNN
Disclaimer: If you buy LNN because of this post, a tornado will destroy your town. And, you may lose money.
Quick Alert: Fly's Soda Pop Analyst Confronts HANS Short Seller
Go ahead, fuck around with his soda pop. I dare you.
Position Updates: HANS
In other news, "The Fly" is now eating oatmeal cookies.
You've been warned.
Fly Sell: AAPL
Missed Opportunities: PMFG
To make a long, frustrating story short, I balked at buying PMFG, because it was too thinly traded. Like a dicktard, I ignored what seemed to be a "sure thing," because I didn't want to "waste valuable resources" in a thinly traded micro-cap.
100% later, "The Fly" hates his trader/servant for being lazy, missing the PMFG run, and will now proceed to throw desk lamps at him.
Here is PMFG's description:
Peerless Mfg. Co., through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of products used for the removal of contaminants from gases and liquids, as well as for air pollution abatement. It operates in two segments, Environmental Systems and Separation Filtration Systems. Environmental Systems segment offers environmental control systems used for air pollution abatement. This segment�s main product, Selective Catalytic Reduction System, is used to convert nitrogen oxide emissions from exhaust gases caused by burning hydrocarbon fuels, such as coal, gasoline, natural gas, and oil, as well as organic bio-fuels, such as wood products, grasses, and grains, into nitrogen and water vapor. Environmental Systems segment also offers various systems to reduce pollutants, such as carbon monoxide and particulate matter. This segment sells its products to power producers, power developers, engineering and construction companies, heat recovery steam generator manufacturers, boiler manufacturers, refineries, and petrochemical plants. Separation Filtration Systems segment provides separators or filters that are used for various purposes in cleaning gases and liquids as they move through piping systems. These products are used primarily to remove solid and liquid contaminants from natural gas, as well as saltwater aerosols from combustion intake air of shipboard gas turbine and diesel engines. These separators are also used in nuclear power plants to remove water from saturated steam. This segment offers its products to gas producers, gas gathering, and transmission and distribution companies; chemical manufacturers and oil refineries; manufacturers of compressors, turbines, and nuclear and conventional steam generating equipment; and shipbuilders. Peerless Mfg. was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Fly Sell: CENX
Quick Alert: Fly's Metal Analyst Confronts CENX Short
I believe the man in the USA trunks is "The Ducati." My analyst didn't appreciate his $1.75 price target on CENX.
Sector Spotlight: Metals
I'll have you know, "The Fly" is fucking irate-- over selling half of his CENX position. I forgot the answers.
For some dicktarded reason, I reasoned my sells with the fact that CENX had disappointing quarterly results. What the fuck was I thinking?
In a bountiful environment like this, being a "shitstained" company is cool as hell. I mean, the chances of a buyout increase with every bad earnings announcement, providing the company sells metal.
Anyway, I will humbly sell the remainder of my CENX shares today.
As a result of the AA bid, CENX, ZEUS, SIM, SCHN, ERS and ACH are running.
Also, HANS reported revenues, which was not worth writing to Santa Claus over. Nonetheless, I will be looking to buy the stock on a dip. The growth story is not over at HANS. I'll bet my fucktarded blog on it.
Finally, it's worth noting, AAPL and BWLD never go down. And, this mini NTRI play, BZI, is on fucking fire.
NOTE: Please take the new "Fly Survey." Where is the DOW heading next?
Sunday, May 06, 2007
Weekend Thoughts: The Important Matter of Milk Cartons
On Friday, Eric "the oil barrel" Bolling said he liked DF, because of the rise in milk prices--even though it's down 10% from his original recommendation.
Fine, I can deal with bad stock advice.
However, he then went on to say: "Hey, but look at the the companies that make milk containers, CCK and OI. They're doing great."
At first, I thought nothing of such fucktarded logic. However, as the weekend progressed, I have been thinking about his ridiculous comments-- to the great detriment of my 155 IQ.
Now, "The Oil Barrel" is a smart dude. But, will someone explain how higher milk prices will benefit the companies that make fucking milk cartons?
I mean, wouldn't sky rocketing milk prices be cost prohibitive and result in lower volume? Let's all be aware that milk is not gasoline, right?
So, unless there is some giant fucking boom in milk, which "The Fly" is unaware. Higher milk prices do dick for the "milk container shit shovelers," right?
Please confirm my accurate thinking, unless my IQ will continue to drop 1 point per hour--until this milk container issue is resolved.