Friday, August 18, 2006
Blur: Song 2
Closing Comments
Wow, what a day!
I thought it was going to be boring, until the buyers came in and massacred the sellers, late in the trading day.
I must say, despite my "convictionless" position on the crazy SOX, they showed leadership today, brushing off MRVL's nightmare quarter. I may have to reverse my reconsideration of the sector-- if up on Monday.
Try to follow that :)
Again, I remain bullish on small cap, beaten down semi's.
Just in case you were away from the turret today, the biggest gains were found in Energy (+1.3%), Utilities (+1.3%) and the Internets
(+ 0.6%).
Finally, on a personal note, I have posted my best 4 week gain of the year, up 11%. Year to date, I am now up 26.5%.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
FCFS, JSDA, BKC, DENN, MVCO, MLS, RMX, CLB, TEX, XOHO, GGR, CFK, GASS, ATPG, NGAS, GSX, QTWW, DRQ, HAWK, END, TUG, PEIX, ANDE, ADM, PGS, OMNI, BRNC, BJS, NOV, AMSC, PDC, BHI, CWPC, CNR, BMD, ALJ, FTO, DK, GST, MEK, NKTR, GENR, BVX, INHX, VPHM, NTMD, INCY, BIVN, AVNR, YMI, ARIA, THLD, CUTR, CLZR, STXS, AVII, NVAX, VICL, WGAT, FLWS, KNOT, PACT, REDF, WZEN, ANSW, MSFT, MO, ZNH, ANTP, FTGX, VOCL, FNSR, FFIV, PWAV, CAMD, LTRX, IKAN, EGHT, TERN, BRCD, FRNS, BEBE, WTSLA, ARO, EVST, NDN, VLCM, ZRAN, DIOD, ESST, NVEC, MIPS, CNXT, SGTL, OIIM, TIVO, GFX, SIRI, TASR, NTAP, CLEC, GLDN, CCOI, TNE, TAR, SLNK, OME, LOOP, AHGP, CPX, NSTR, CUP, TIE, INPH, DXCM, STAR, ZVXI, HIBB, LAVA, TGB, EZM, MII, SCT, FL, RYI, MIG and MDR.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
TWPG, ISE, BOT, KR, CMG, CHCI, LEV, ISWI, SYNM, OLGR, IMCO, KFX, TIV, NAT, IDIX, ZGEN, MDRX, AFFX, GOAM, CAT, TKO, GGBM, AIRT, MRVL, RBAK, BBA, RSH, PIR, CTRN, GPS, CACH, SHG, RTEC, ATHR, SLAB, SMDI, ASTSF, NEXT, CALL, CPWM, GTLS, DITC, FMCN, DRYS, LPSN, DV, SIR, LEA, MTL, LBY, HS, BWA and THO.
I thought it was going to be boring, until the buyers came in and massacred the sellers, late in the trading day.
I must say, despite my "convictionless" position on the crazy SOX, they showed leadership today, brushing off MRVL's nightmare quarter. I may have to reverse my reconsideration of the sector-- if up on Monday.
Try to follow that :)
Again, I remain bullish on small cap, beaten down semi's.
Just in case you were away from the turret today, the biggest gains were found in Energy (+1.3%), Utilities (+1.3%) and the Internets
(+ 0.6%).
Finally, on a personal note, I have posted my best 4 week gain of the year, up 11%. Year to date, I am now up 26.5%.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
FCFS, JSDA, BKC, DENN, MVCO, MLS, RMX, CLB, TEX, XOHO, GGR, CFK, GASS, ATPG, NGAS, GSX, QTWW, DRQ, HAWK, END, TUG, PEIX, ANDE, ADM, PGS, OMNI, BRNC, BJS, NOV, AMSC, PDC, BHI, CWPC, CNR, BMD, ALJ, FTO, DK, GST, MEK, NKTR, GENR, BVX, INHX, VPHM, NTMD, INCY, BIVN, AVNR, YMI, ARIA, THLD, CUTR, CLZR, STXS, AVII, NVAX, VICL, WGAT, FLWS, KNOT, PACT, REDF, WZEN, ANSW, MSFT, MO, ZNH, ANTP, FTGX, VOCL, FNSR, FFIV, PWAV, CAMD, LTRX, IKAN, EGHT, TERN, BRCD, FRNS, BEBE, WTSLA, ARO, EVST, NDN, VLCM, ZRAN, DIOD, ESST, NVEC, MIPS, CNXT, SGTL, OIIM, TIVO, GFX, SIRI, TASR, NTAP, CLEC, GLDN, CCOI, TNE, TAR, SLNK, OME, LOOP, AHGP, CPX, NSTR, CUP, TIE, INPH, DXCM, STAR, ZVXI, HIBB, LAVA, TGB, EZM, MII, SCT, FL, RYI, MIG and MDR.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
TWPG, ISE, BOT, KR, CMG, CHCI, LEV, ISWI, SYNM, OLGR, IMCO, KFX, TIV, NAT, IDIX, ZGEN, MDRX, AFFX, GOAM, CAT, TKO, GGBM, AIRT, MRVL, RBAK, BBA, RSH, PIR, CTRN, GPS, CACH, SHG, RTEC, ATHR, SLAB, SMDI, ASTSF, NEXT, CALL, CPWM, GTLS, DITC, FMCN, DRYS, LPSN, DV, SIR, LEA, MTL, LBY, HS, BWA and THO.
Fly Buy: CMOS
I bought 20,000 shares of CMOS, between @2.15-2.20.
Energy Stocks Get a Bounce
Although I am not ready to get bullish on the sector, my opinion can change at any moment, literally. All I really need to get uber bullish on oil is a war, hurricane or a giant oil spill.
Oh, I forgot to mention refinery explosion.
That's not too much to ask, is it?
So, if I get my catalyst, I will go long fast and very, very furious.
The following energy stocks are behaving as if a refinery, somewhere in Texas, has just exploded:
GSX +16.6%
CWPC +15.5%
CNR +12.3%
PEIX +9.7%
DRQ +4.5%
HAWK +4.3%
ALJ +3.75%
FTO +3.1%
BRNC +3.0%
BJS +2.6%
NGAS +2.3%
Oh, I almost forgot to mention Jimmy Crackcorn's blackhelicopter OIH option theory is back on his front burner.
Oh, I forgot to mention refinery explosion.
That's not too much to ask, is it?
So, if I get my catalyst, I will go long fast and very, very furious.
The following energy stocks are behaving as if a refinery, somewhere in Texas, has just exploded:
GSX +16.6%
CWPC +15.5%
CNR +12.3%
PEIX +9.7%
DRQ +4.5%
HAWK +4.3%
ALJ +3.75%
FTO +3.1%
BRNC +3.0%
BJS +2.6%
NGAS +2.3%
Oh, I almost forgot to mention Jimmy Crackcorn's blackhelicopter OIH option theory is back on his front burner.
Internet Stocks on the Move
The internet sector, which has been subject to non-stop selling for the last 3 months, is starting to get momentum. I am not ready to dive in, yet. Nonetheless, I will give you my watchlist:
KNOT, REDF, TOMO, STMP, VCLK, OSTK, REDE, LQDT, and CNVR
KNOT, REDF, TOMO, STMP, VCLK, OSTK, REDE, LQDT, and CNVR
Fly Buy: PALM
I bought 5,000 PALM @ $15.10.
The new Treo should be launched in September.
The new Treo should be launched in September.
Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors
The market is digesting this week's gains, while MRVL is vomiting them up. Those numbers from MRVL were God awful and it reminds me that I used to hate semiconductor stocks-- until three days ago when greed infected my brain and I COVERED ALL MY SHORTS. Stupid!
Seriously, investing in the semi's is like doing a deal with the devil. You know they can bring you wonderful returns in a very short period of time, but, ultimately your portfolio will be spinning in hell on the MRVL rotisserie.
With that being said, I am changing my position on the SOX, for now. Until greed infects my brain, I will likely shun the sector and curse its components out every time I see them on my monitor.
On the bright side, the overall market doesn't look half bad. We have early gains in AAPL, HPQ and MOT.
Its going to be a slow, uneventful day. Go to the beach.
The following semiconductor stocks will be hated by Broker A indefinitely:
ATHR -7.9%
MRVL -7.3%
AMKR -5.2%
SLAB -3.5%
UPDATE: I still like small cap, beaten down semi's, like CMOS, TXCC and CNXT. I just wanted to clarify my position.
Seriously, investing in the semi's is like doing a deal with the devil. You know they can bring you wonderful returns in a very short period of time, but, ultimately your portfolio will be spinning in hell on the MRVL rotisserie.
With that being said, I am changing my position on the SOX, for now. Until greed infects my brain, I will likely shun the sector and curse its components out every time I see them on my monitor.
On the bright side, the overall market doesn't look half bad. We have early gains in AAPL, HPQ and MOT.
Its going to be a slow, uneventful day. Go to the beach.
The following semiconductor stocks will be hated by Broker A indefinitely:
ATHR -7.9%
MRVL -7.3%
AMKR -5.2%
SLAB -3.5%
UPDATE: I still like small cap, beaten down semi's, like CMOS, TXCC and CNXT. I just wanted to clarify my position.
Thursday, August 17, 2006
Comic Relief: Tom Green
I don't know why, but the more I watch this video-- the funnier it gets.
Red Hot Chili Peppers: Scartissue
Closing Comments
Today was a great day for the bulls. We had explosive upside moves, yet the major indices barely moved-- giving the impression of consolidation. The best case scenario is to digest recent gains, without much giveback, then leg up.
In my opinion, the best trades can still be found in small cap, beaten down semiconductors, such as: CMOS, CNXT or TXCC. However, if the market reversed to the downside, those "beaten down" semi's will get beaten down a little more.
Consider that before buying.
If you haven't participated in the rally, yet, its not too late. My sense: the market continues its bullish tone until September.
For now, enjoy!
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
LM, SVI, TSN, WFMI, DENN, LEV, CHB, AXR, MLS, XOHO, IMCL, IMCO, TIV, CPST, LDG, FRX, NBIX, CUTR, ELOS, ACAD, ZGEN, NPSP, STXS, HEB, BCSI, CHINA, EBAY, OSTK, CKCM, TZOO, REDE, REDF, SINA, BIDU, TKO, FFIV, CIEN, SILC, DVW, MSPD, EGHT, RACK, BKS, MW, BOOT, SCVL, CRM, CMOS, CNXT, RHAT, LNUX, RNOW, THQI, SIGM, SMTL, SLAB, RTEC, SIRF, LOGI, PMCS, VIMC, STEC, DSS, OVRL, ALSK, ALVR, NSTR, LOOP, EGLT and AMD.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
TWPG, ARXX, VGZ, SIR, SSI, TNT, BGO, STP, SAM, GMCR, FLR, RMX, FWLT, JEC, TEX, TRN, KEX, HOC, HYDL, CEO, TSO, OMNI, DRQ, OII, BRNC, WNR, FTO, ALJ, AVR, VSE, TIE, ACH, ZEUS, MRK, FOXH, LTON, GOAM, PACT, NILE, VGZ, AUY, SA, TOMO, AVNX, BBA, SHLD, GME, CTRN, ZUMZ, DIOD, ESST, SHG, OVTI, LXK, WFR, CYCL and DXPE.
In my opinion, the best trades can still be found in small cap, beaten down semiconductors, such as: CMOS, CNXT or TXCC. However, if the market reversed to the downside, those "beaten down" semi's will get beaten down a little more.
Consider that before buying.
If you haven't participated in the rally, yet, its not too late. My sense: the market continues its bullish tone until September.
For now, enjoy!
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
LM, SVI, TSN, WFMI, DENN, LEV, CHB, AXR, MLS, XOHO, IMCL, IMCO, TIV, CPST, LDG, FRX, NBIX, CUTR, ELOS, ACAD, ZGEN, NPSP, STXS, HEB, BCSI, CHINA, EBAY, OSTK, CKCM, TZOO, REDE, REDF, SINA, BIDU, TKO, FFIV, CIEN, SILC, DVW, MSPD, EGHT, RACK, BKS, MW, BOOT, SCVL, CRM, CMOS, CNXT, RHAT, LNUX, RNOW, THQI, SIGM, SMTL, SLAB, RTEC, SIRF, LOGI, PMCS, VIMC, STEC, DSS, OVRL, ALSK, ALVR, NSTR, LOOP, EGLT and AMD.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
TWPG, ARXX, VGZ, SIR, SSI, TNT, BGO, STP, SAM, GMCR, FLR, RMX, FWLT, JEC, TEX, TRN, KEX, HOC, HYDL, CEO, TSO, OMNI, DRQ, OII, BRNC, WNR, FTO, ALJ, AVR, VSE, TIE, ACH, ZEUS, MRK, FOXH, LTON, GOAM, PACT, NILE, VGZ, AUY, SA, TOMO, AVNX, BBA, SHLD, GME, CTRN, ZUMZ, DIOD, ESST, SHG, OVTI, LXK, WFR, CYCL and DXPE.
Bear Raid
I said earlier, whenever the market seems "fun" to me it sells off. Well, I am not willing to red flag the market yet, but it appears the sellers are getting a little sporty-- knocking the Dow down 40 points in 20 minutes.
I still believe, whether the market sells off today or not, there is still room for upside.
Also, I am scouring the market for deeply depressed stocks and will be posting on these small cap dogs, sometime in the near future.
UPDATE: The bear left the building. We are likely to stay green into the close.
I still believe, whether the market sells off today or not, there is still room for upside.
Also, I am scouring the market for deeply depressed stocks and will be posting on these small cap dogs, sometime in the near future.
UPDATE: The bear left the building. We are likely to stay green into the close.
Fly Buy: CHS
I bought 2,000 shares of CHS @ $25.70.
Quick Alert: Breakaway Market
Go long!
Position Updates: PALM, ERS
PALM (+0.6%) is being embarassed by competitor RIMM (+3.7%).
That's ok.
I know there is a 16% short position (15.5 million shares) in PALM and they (the shorts) are going to be wrong, eventually. So, if you are short PALM, know this: Your money will soon be my money, f*ckers.
Regarding ERS:
It looks coiled. Keep a close eye on this one-- it can bust out at any moment.
That's ok.
I know there is a 16% short position (15.5 million shares) in PALM and they (the shorts) are going to be wrong, eventually. So, if you are short PALM, know this: Your money will soon be my money, f*ckers.
Regarding ERS:
It looks coiled. Keep a close eye on this one-- it can bust out at any moment.
Good Times
This is getting fun.
By the way, every time the market feels "fun" to me, we soon thereafter tank for a day or two. So, don't be shocked or amazed if the sellers put some capital reserves to work-- in an effort to drive prices lower.
Anyway, here are a few stocks that are ramping:
CRM,COGT,NVEC, GEMS, AMD, GYMB, XVE, CNXT, CTXS, RIMM, SLAB, SIGM, SIRF, HPQ, PMCS, PXLW, RACK, CHINA, OSTK, TZOO, REDF, FFIV, TUTS, EGHT, TLAB, BKHM, MW, FORD, EZPW, GGR, CNR, ERS, LDG, ACAD, NBIX, MED, VSTA, AFFX, CUTR, MDT, NITE, KR and AXR.
NOTE: I am hearing some positive chatter on BMHC.
By the way, every time the market feels "fun" to me, we soon thereafter tank for a day or two. So, don't be shocked or amazed if the sellers put some capital reserves to work-- in an effort to drive prices lower.
Anyway, here are a few stocks that are ramping:
CRM,COGT,NVEC, GEMS, AMD, GYMB, XVE, CNXT, CTXS, RIMM, SLAB, SIGM, SIRF, HPQ, PMCS, PXLW, RACK, CHINA, OSTK, TZOO, REDF, FFIV, TUTS, EGHT, TLAB, BKHM, MW, FORD, EZPW, GGR, CNR, ERS, LDG, ACAD, NBIX, MED, VSTA, AFFX, CUTR, MDT, NITE, KR and AXR.
NOTE: I am hearing some positive chatter on BMHC.
Sector Spotlight: OIL
Last week I was uber bullish on oil stocks. This week I am bearish on the group and will not consider buying them until they get cheaper. Understand, I do not "flip-flop" because I am crazy or indecisive. I adapt to what the market is telling me and act accordingly.
Last month, my biggest position was in natural gas. However, right now, I do not own a single nat gas stock-- due to lack of tropical activity in the Gulf. Frankly, I was sick and tired of almost wishing for an f'n hurricane, which would hurt alot of people, just to make a quick buck in the market. Sick bastard!
So, I sold.
My point: This market is not forgiving. There is nothing wrong with adjusting or even changing price targets, investment methods, or general forcasts-- in order to adapt and conquer this bitch.
Some might call my investment philosophy "too volatile" or that it lacks "conviction." To them I say: "fuck you" I am up 24% this year.
Back to oil.
Oil is going to trade lower, short term. I suggest not buying-- just wait.
When crude hits $67-68, take a stab at the USO.
Here are a few stocks to put on the radar and buy on weakness ( that doesn't mean to catch a falling knife):
CEO -2.9%
GLBL -2.4%
VLO -2.4%
SU -1.9%
UPL -1.9%
GMXR -1.2%
CHK -0.8%
Last month, my biggest position was in natural gas. However, right now, I do not own a single nat gas stock-- due to lack of tropical activity in the Gulf. Frankly, I was sick and tired of almost wishing for an f'n hurricane, which would hurt alot of people, just to make a quick buck in the market. Sick bastard!
So, I sold.
My point: This market is not forgiving. There is nothing wrong with adjusting or even changing price targets, investment methods, or general forcasts-- in order to adapt and conquer this bitch.
Some might call my investment philosophy "too volatile" or that it lacks "conviction." To them I say: "fuck you" I am up 24% this year.
Back to oil.
Oil is going to trade lower, short term. I suggest not buying-- just wait.
When crude hits $67-68, take a stab at the USO.
Here are a few stocks to put on the radar and buy on weakness ( that doesn't mean to catch a falling knife):
CEO -2.9%
GLBL -2.4%
VLO -2.4%
SU -1.9%
UPL -1.9%
GMXR -1.2%
CHK -0.8%
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
John Mayer: Clarity
Closing Comments
What more can I say?
Bears got taken out and shot today. Long live the bull.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
(today's list will be smaller, since everything was up)
TWPG,PARL, INWK, HXL, ISE, JNS, FMD, RUTH, PNRA, LEV, EXP, RYL, MVCO, CMG, MSSR, JOE, RMIX, GGR, JOYG, BUCY, SPWR, OTD, PEIX, ESLR, CNR, ERS, TIE, BRL, BIVN, VPHM, ACAD, MYOG, GNBT, CRXL, LTOT, CMGI, DIET, TOMO, IIJI, ECLG, AVNX, TKO, CNXT, TUTS, BKHM, SILC, AFOP, OPTC, RACK, MRVL, MSPD, JDSU, NETL, ANF, TWTR, CHRS, TRID, BTUI, BRCM, ATHR, OVTI, TTWO, SIRF, TASR, HILL, XRTX, ANAD, UCTT, PLXT, PMCS, NEXT, NTLI, IFON, KONG and QCOM.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
CASY, DAKT, CG, DHOM, MLS, AXYS, IPII, PLLL, CFK, GSX, CRED, PDC, MEK, MSS, STGN, NRPH, NMTI, FOXH, VSTA, XOM, GOAM, REDE, WWWW, OCCF, ORCT, TWB, SNDA, SGTL, MOSY and RCCC.
Bears got taken out and shot today. Long live the bull.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
(today's list will be smaller, since everything was up)
TWPG,PARL, INWK, HXL, ISE, JNS, FMD, RUTH, PNRA, LEV, EXP, RYL, MVCO, CMG, MSSR, JOE, RMIX, GGR, JOYG, BUCY, SPWR, OTD, PEIX, ESLR, CNR, ERS, TIE, BRL, BIVN, VPHM, ACAD, MYOG, GNBT, CRXL, LTOT, CMGI, DIET, TOMO, IIJI, ECLG, AVNX, TKO, CNXT, TUTS, BKHM, SILC, AFOP, OPTC, RACK, MRVL, MSPD, JDSU, NETL, ANF, TWTR, CHRS, TRID, BTUI, BRCM, ATHR, OVTI, TTWO, SIRF, TASR, HILL, XRTX, ANAD, UCTT, PLXT, PMCS, NEXT, NTLI, IFON, KONG and QCOM.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
CASY, DAKT, CG, DHOM, MLS, AXYS, IPII, PLLL, CFK, GSX, CRED, PDC, MEK, MSS, STGN, NRPH, NMTI, FOXH, VSTA, XOM, GOAM, REDE, WWWW, OCCF, ORCT, TWB, SNDA, SGTL, MOSY and RCCC.
Relentless Buying
This is the type of tape that catches everyone by surprise. The bulls are up and don't know whether to take profits or buy more. The shorts, after hibernating all summer in their short positions, wake up to blood and guts all over their position sheets and are forced to cover. And, the guy with 70% cash is worried about buying-- after such an explosive move to the upside.
I have learned, through years of careful money management, to never second guess my instincts. My gut, along with the voices in my head, are telling me: "Broker A, the freakin' market is going higher---jump in head first."
So, I will continue to put my cash to work-- cause that voice in my head is never wrong.
If you can't figure out why the market is exploding, don't try to figure it out. Bottoms are never clear or announced when they happen-- they just happen.
My game plan is simple: milk the rally... then move to cash...re-evaluate.
Enjoy
I have learned, through years of careful money management, to never second guess my instincts. My gut, along with the voices in my head, are telling me: "Broker A, the freakin' market is going higher---jump in head first."
So, I will continue to put my cash to work-- cause that voice in my head is never wrong.
If you can't figure out why the market is exploding, don't try to figure it out. Bottoms are never clear or announced when they happen-- they just happen.
My game plan is simple: milk the rally... then move to cash...re-evaluate.
Enjoy
Fly Buy: PALM
I bought 10,000 shares of PALM @15.40.
Fly Buy: PALM
I bought 25,000 PALM, between $15.25-15.33
Summer BBQ
Holy smokes are the shorts getting cooked. I say that, with the utmost intention to "rub it in," now that I no longer have short positions:)
Seriously, nothing was funny about the way I got poleaxed on the BRCM and NETL trades-- ATHR was a profit. I guess I has that doom and gloom thing going for awhile, making easy money by betting against stocks.
However, now is not the time to go against the trend. With all the cash that has been piling up on the sidelines, coupled with record short interest, I suspect this market will continue to BBQ the sellers.
The following stocks are taking money away from short sellers, in a very rapid way:
CNR +21%
TOMO +16.2%
GGR +15.4%
BIVN +12.8%
ANF +12.4%
LEV +11%
CHRS +10.4%
MRVL +10%
RACK +10%
CHCI +9.7%
BRCM +9.6%
BTUI +9.5%
SILC +9.5%
SIRF +9.3%
OPTC +9%
TRID +8.8%
SLNK +8.9%
KONG +8.7%
CNXT +8.1%
ERS +7.5%
Seriously, nothing was funny about the way I got poleaxed on the BRCM and NETL trades-- ATHR was a profit. I guess I has that doom and gloom thing going for awhile, making easy money by betting against stocks.
However, now is not the time to go against the trend. With all the cash that has been piling up on the sidelines, coupled with record short interest, I suspect this market will continue to BBQ the sellers.
The following stocks are taking money away from short sellers, in a very rapid way:
CNR +21%
TOMO +16.2%
GGR +15.4%
BIVN +12.8%
ANF +12.4%
LEV +11%
CHRS +10.4%
MRVL +10%
RACK +10%
CHCI +9.7%
BRCM +9.6%
BTUI +9.5%
SILC +9.5%
SIRF +9.3%
OPTC +9%
TRID +8.8%
SLNK +8.9%
KONG +8.7%
CNXT +8.1%
ERS +7.5%
Fly Buy: ERS
I bought 2,000 ERS @ $12.23.
Fly Buy: PALM
I bought 10,000 PALM, between $15.15-15.18
Fly Buy: ATHR
I covered my ATHR short, buying 20,000 shares, between $16.85-17.05.
Fly Buy: NETL
I covered my NETL short, buying 5,000 shares, between $28.75-29.
Fly Buy: BRCM
I covered my BRCM short, buying 3,000 shares, between $28.75-29.
Sector Spotlight: Metals
The CPI data came in as expected. Hence, the market has the green light to go higher.
Frankly, even the expected inflation data is too high in my opinion. Nonetheless, the market God's smile upon "as expected" with regards to inflation and jolt the market higher.
So, my convictions tell me the market will continue to trade up, unless "peace in the Middle East" unravels.
Today's market is led by gains in Metals, Homebuilders, Semiconductors and Networkers. In my humble opinion: a very nice combo for a sustainable, yet short term, rally. Short term meaning less than 1 month.
Regarding my shorts: I will be covering them all-- in an attempt to lever myself to this rally as aggressivley as I can.
The following metal stocks are showing some mojo:
ERS +5.4%
RTI +3.9%
TIE +3.5%
BHP +3.1%
RTP +3.0%
X +2.7%
NUE +2.6%
NOTE: The energy sector is rebounding nicely today, despite oil going lower. Furthermore, natural gas stocks are in the leadership position, with gains in: NGAS, BMD, GMXR, ARD and SWN.
Frankly, even the expected inflation data is too high in my opinion. Nonetheless, the market God's smile upon "as expected" with regards to inflation and jolt the market higher.
So, my convictions tell me the market will continue to trade up, unless "peace in the Middle East" unravels.
Today's market is led by gains in Metals, Homebuilders, Semiconductors and Networkers. In my humble opinion: a very nice combo for a sustainable, yet short term, rally. Short term meaning less than 1 month.
Regarding my shorts: I will be covering them all-- in an attempt to lever myself to this rally as aggressivley as I can.
The following metal stocks are showing some mojo:
ERS +5.4%
RTI +3.9%
TIE +3.5%
BHP +3.1%
RTP +3.0%
X +2.7%
NUE +2.6%
NOTE: The energy sector is rebounding nicely today, despite oil going lower. Furthermore, natural gas stocks are in the leadership position, with gains in: NGAS, BMD, GMXR, ARD and SWN.
Tuesday, August 15, 2006
Nada Surf: Always Love
Closing Comments
Providing tomorrow's CPI data is benign, this market may be set for its last run-up, prior to getting poleaxed in September-October.
So, I think it makes sense to position in heavily shorted stocks like RMBS, PALM and SNDK-- in order to get a good trade. However, I am not sanctioning any long term holds.
The near term fate of the market will be decided tomorrow.
Good luck.
At the end of trading, the following stocks had notable upside moves:
CLMS, SIEB, TWPG, ISE, NITE, NMR, LAZ, NKZ-WT, GHL, LEND, LEH, PTRY, WFMI, GAP, RDK, MFW, SPF, WCI, GVA, BMHC, MTH, BECN, FLR, OHB, KBH, UFPI, BHS, RYL, HXM, EME, HOV, FRK, COSI, MSSR, GMCR, IHP, CBG, CTO, ACLI, CSX, RAIL, MIDD, AMN, MLI, TEX, UIC, HC, LVS, HRS, WYNN, GGR, VLCCF, BUCY, JOYG, SPWR, IMCO, USEY, DRQ, STP, DNE, KFX, WNR, MGPI, IPSU, GPRE, ANDE, IIIN, RTI, TIE, X, ENER, BLDP, MIND, BRL, MSS, NRPH, KERX, AMLN, MAXY, ACAD, KOOL, NVAX, CPHD, CRXL, GOAM, LTON, REDE, NILE, CTRP, AQNT, RATE, MFE, WEBX, HD, ADAM, GMKT, FORR, LQDT, BIDU, IIJI, REDF, EQIX, LORL, BKHM , JNPR, AKAM, FNSR, AMCC, AVNX, TXCC, BWNG, OCCF, RBAK, MSPD, EGHT, MRVL, NETL, FDRY, RACK, GLW, UARM, CTRN, AEOS, FRED, SCVL, ZUMZ, URBN, NVDA, PXLW, DIOD, TRID, WIND, MWY, EMKR, MIPS, BRCM, CRM, LNUX, CTXS, GTW, NGPS, COGO, ERICY, HURC, PALM, FALC, SNDK, XRTX, WDC, NTAP, PMCS, NEXT, WFR, SUPX, AATI, MNCP-5, RCCC, NTLI, KONG, SWIR, TPTH, DRL and QCOM.
At the end of trading, the following stocks had notable downside moves:
HANS, LWAY, MVCO, EXP, IPII, SIMC, MED, BJ, HEW, IOC, OMNI, JDO, BDCO, AOB, CUTR, HSP, ELOS, WMT, DIET, PACT, OPTC, NTES, LF, CONN, NWRE, AMKR, IMX, GEPT, CNTF and NOIZ.
So, I think it makes sense to position in heavily shorted stocks like RMBS, PALM and SNDK-- in order to get a good trade. However, I am not sanctioning any long term holds.
The near term fate of the market will be decided tomorrow.
Good luck.
At the end of trading, the following stocks had notable upside moves:
CLMS, SIEB, TWPG, ISE, NITE, NMR, LAZ, NKZ-WT, GHL, LEND, LEH, PTRY, WFMI, GAP, RDK, MFW, SPF, WCI, GVA, BMHC, MTH, BECN, FLR, OHB, KBH, UFPI, BHS, RYL, HXM, EME, HOV, FRK, COSI, MSSR, GMCR, IHP, CBG, CTO, ACLI, CSX, RAIL, MIDD, AMN, MLI, TEX, UIC, HC, LVS, HRS, WYNN, GGR, VLCCF, BUCY, JOYG, SPWR, IMCO, USEY, DRQ, STP, DNE, KFX, WNR, MGPI, IPSU, GPRE, ANDE, IIIN, RTI, TIE, X, ENER, BLDP, MIND, BRL, MSS, NRPH, KERX, AMLN, MAXY, ACAD, KOOL, NVAX, CPHD, CRXL, GOAM, LTON, REDE, NILE, CTRP, AQNT, RATE, MFE, WEBX, HD, ADAM, GMKT, FORR, LQDT, BIDU, IIJI, REDF, EQIX, LORL, BKHM , JNPR, AKAM, FNSR, AMCC, AVNX, TXCC, BWNG, OCCF, RBAK, MSPD, EGHT, MRVL, NETL, FDRY, RACK, GLW, UARM, CTRN, AEOS, FRED, SCVL, ZUMZ, URBN, NVDA, PXLW, DIOD, TRID, WIND, MWY, EMKR, MIPS, BRCM, CRM, LNUX, CTXS, GTW, NGPS, COGO, ERICY, HURC, PALM, FALC, SNDK, XRTX, WDC, NTAP, PMCS, NEXT, WFR, SUPX, AATI, MNCP-5, RCCC, NTLI, KONG, SWIR, TPTH, DRL and QCOM.
At the end of trading, the following stocks had notable downside moves:
HANS, LWAY, MVCO, EXP, IPII, SIMC, MED, BJ, HEW, IOC, OMNI, JDO, BDCO, AOB, CUTR, HSP, ELOS, WMT, DIET, PACT, OPTC, NTES, LF, CONN, NWRE, AMKR, IMX, GEPT, CNTF and NOIZ.
Fly Buy: PALM
I bought 5,000 PALM, between $15.03-15.06
Getting Flat Prior to the CPI
Even though I am having my hat handed to me on NETL, BRCM and to a lesser extent ATHR short positions; I am still up 1.6% today.
Reason being: I also own SNDK, TUG, HD, DNA, FDC, SYMC, GME, GD, PFE and a dozen other stocks.
My point: Always be diversified amongst many different sectors-- even if you hate them. On occasion, those hated sectors will offset losses in your favorite ones. Moreover, in order to "stay in the game" during rough markets, it is important to limit risk by having more than one hand in the game. More importantly, know when to fold that losing hand.
I love small losses.
Bottom line: I am reducing my short positions to equal my longs. This way, the initial reaction to tomorrow's CPI data will have little to no effect on my assets-- making it easy for me to adjust thereafter.
NOTE: PALM looks good for a bounce up to $16.
Reason being: I also own SNDK, TUG, HD, DNA, FDC, SYMC, GME, GD, PFE and a dozen other stocks.
My point: Always be diversified amongst many different sectors-- even if you hate them. On occasion, those hated sectors will offset losses in your favorite ones. Moreover, in order to "stay in the game" during rough markets, it is important to limit risk by having more than one hand in the game. More importantly, know when to fold that losing hand.
I love small losses.
Bottom line: I am reducing my short positions to equal my longs. This way, the initial reaction to tomorrow's CPI data will have little to no effect on my assets-- making it easy for me to adjust thereafter.
NOTE: PALM looks good for a bounce up to $16.
Fly Buy: PALM
I bought 20,000 PALM, between $15.04-15.12.
Fly Buy: ATHR
I covered part of my short, buying 40,000 shares of ATHR, between $16.58-16.67.
Waiting for Confirmation
According to the voices in my head, the SOX must break 426 (now at 422), in order to make me feel stupid, cover my shorts and run naked through the busy streets of Manhattan.
More on this later.
So, I'll take my hits today and wait for that confirmation.
The few semi's that I would buy on a SOX breakout are:
WFR, MRVL, FORM, TXN, FSL, RTEC, and VSEA.
So, I'll take my hits today and wait for that confirmation.
The few semi's that I would buy on a SOX breakout are:
WFR, MRVL, FORM, TXN, FSL, RTEC, and VSEA.
Chinks in the Armor
The following stocks are standouts for sucking wind, as the market sprints higher:
ICE, CORS, HNZ, KR, HSY, BMHC, DHOM, BXC, EXP, LEN, TOL, IDR, MLS, IPII, DE, SQM, RIN, RMX, DW, PCR, IMCL, HAL, GDP, BDCO, ERS, ADRX, CAH, ELOS, CUTR, MDRX, MYOG, GROW, ELOY, TSCM, FLWS, ISSX, NFLX, WGRD, DIET, IBM, WMT, GM, NTES, AVCI, SPLS, BEBE, LF, JCG, DLTR, GPS, DBRN, CONN, SIGM, SMTL, ELX, INTC, BTUI, AMKR, NWRE, RHAT, CSC, DISH, SIRI, AUDC, ORA, IMN, XING, ALVR, S, CYCL, and AMGN
ICE, CORS, HNZ, KR, HSY, BMHC, DHOM, BXC, EXP, LEN, TOL, IDR, MLS, IPII, DE, SQM, RIN, RMX, DW, PCR, IMCL, HAL, GDP, BDCO, ERS, ADRX, CAH, ELOS, CUTR, MDRX, MYOG, GROW, ELOY, TSCM, FLWS, ISSX, NFLX, WGRD, DIET, IBM, WMT, GM, NTES, AVCI, SPLS, BEBE, LF, JCG, DLTR, GPS, DBRN, CONN, SIGM, SMTL, ELX, INTC, BTUI, AMKR, NWRE, RHAT, CSC, DISH, SIRI, AUDC, ORA, IMN, XING, ALVR, S, CYCL, and AMGN
Position Updates: BRCM, ATHR, NETL
All of my shorts are being heavily scrutinized now-- in light of today's data. There is a strong possibility the market may run for several days and wipe away my gains in ATHR, while deepening my losses in BRCM and NETL.
So, I have decided to either take on some longs of equal value to hedge myself or just call it a day and take my lumps.
I'll keep you posted.
So, I have decided to either take on some longs of equal value to hedge myself or just call it a day and take my lumps.
I'll keep you posted.
Sector Spotlight: Homebuilders
Today, we received better than expected inflation data. Naturally, as a result, we are off to the races-- as the market prices in life without the Fed. Moreover, if the Fed is done, then the no brainers to go up SHOULD be the banks, brokerages and homebuilders.
Unlike yesterday, I feel today's run-up may last, as short sellers run for cover and institutions feel comfortable to put some cash to work.
As always, be on guard for any reversal in the Trannies, SOX, Homebuilders or the Banks and Brokerages. Should any of those sectors go red, today's rally may quickly unravel.
NOTE: I do not own any homebuilders. However, since this sector has been under direct fire from the Fed, I thought it may be worth a look-- considering the Fed may be dormant for awhile.
The following stocks seems to have some mojo:
WCI +4.5%
GVA +3.8%
TOA +3.2%
CHB +2.75%
UFPI +2.7%
BECN +2.5%
HMX +2.5%
MTH +2.4%
HOV +2.0%
WLT +1.8%
Unlike yesterday, I feel today's run-up may last, as short sellers run for cover and institutions feel comfortable to put some cash to work.
As always, be on guard for any reversal in the Trannies, SOX, Homebuilders or the Banks and Brokerages. Should any of those sectors go red, today's rally may quickly unravel.
NOTE: I do not own any homebuilders. However, since this sector has been under direct fire from the Fed, I thought it may be worth a look-- considering the Fed may be dormant for awhile.
The following stocks seems to have some mojo:
WCI +4.5%
GVA +3.8%
TOA +3.2%
CHB +2.75%
UFPI +2.7%
BECN +2.5%
HMX +2.5%
MTH +2.4%
HOV +2.0%
WLT +1.8%
Monday, August 14, 2006
Nine Inch Nails: EveryDay Is Exactly The Same (Live)
Closing Comments
Well, the bulls barely got out alive-- as the rally sputtered out late in the day. I added to my BRCM and ATHR short positions and will add to my NETL short-- if it jumps to $27.5
Weakness was abundant in the energy, homebuilders, brokers, gold and the steel sectors.
Strength was easily found in the semiconductors and networkers.
Bottom line: My best guess is a weak market tomorrow-- spearheaded by today's strongest sector: the SOX.
At the end of trading, the following stocks had notable upside moves:
NKZ-wt, NMR, FMD, EV, ISE, BSI, WFMI, OATS, GAP, BKC, BMHC, COSI, VLGEA, MLS, PCR, MIDD, CEO, ACLI, RAIL, KFX, ACH, LDG, TECH, LCBM, FOXH, CLZR, SMBI, QDEL, SFE, PACT, RATE, TFSM, MCHX, GROW, NTRT, RBAK, CRNT, BKS, DDS, FD, CHS, SIMG, ININ, RMBS, TTWO, NWRE, RNOW, COHU, BRCM, GEPT, NGPS, EMC, CLEC, CTCI, MTE, CYCL, UTSI, CWCO, DK and DXPE.
At the end of trading, the following stocks had notable downside moves:
NOIZ, ANTP, CCCC, STI, NLY, BSC, CAV, CVCO, MHO, FLR, JOE, RMIX, ASEI, IPII, HC, ETN, XNL (Mark Cuban hit piece out on sharesleuth.com), GSX, OMNI, USU, PLLL, BRY, ARD, GEOI, HOC, IOC, NXY, MEE, UPL, HOS, NFX, SUN, QTWW, GMXR, DRQ, DPTR, TRGL, HAWK, GDP, FST, GLBL, NGS, PDC, BLDP, FPP, ACI, SUF, MIND, VLCCF, ANDE, AVR, PEIX, MGPI, VSE, IIIN, ATI, TIE, NTMD, NMTI, CAT, AA, MSTR, SA, AUY, JADE, JOBS, ARO, JCG, CONN, THQI, SGTL, COGO, STEC, IFON, GRRF and RCCC
Weakness was abundant in the energy, homebuilders, brokers, gold and the steel sectors.
Strength was easily found in the semiconductors and networkers.
Bottom line: My best guess is a weak market tomorrow-- spearheaded by today's strongest sector: the SOX.
At the end of trading, the following stocks had notable upside moves:
NKZ-wt, NMR, FMD, EV, ISE, BSI, WFMI, OATS, GAP, BKC, BMHC, COSI, VLGEA, MLS, PCR, MIDD, CEO, ACLI, RAIL, KFX, ACH, LDG, TECH, LCBM, FOXH, CLZR, SMBI, QDEL, SFE, PACT, RATE, TFSM, MCHX, GROW, NTRT, RBAK, CRNT, BKS, DDS, FD, CHS, SIMG, ININ, RMBS, TTWO, NWRE, RNOW, COHU, BRCM, GEPT, NGPS, EMC, CLEC, CTCI, MTE, CYCL, UTSI, CWCO, DK and DXPE.
At the end of trading, the following stocks had notable downside moves:
NOIZ, ANTP, CCCC, STI, NLY, BSC, CAV, CVCO, MHO, FLR, JOE, RMIX, ASEI, IPII, HC, ETN, XNL (Mark Cuban hit piece out on sharesleuth.com), GSX, OMNI, USU, PLLL, BRY, ARD, GEOI, HOC, IOC, NXY, MEE, UPL, HOS, NFX, SUN, QTWW, GMXR, DRQ, DPTR, TRGL, HAWK, GDP, FST, GLBL, NGS, PDC, BLDP, FPP, ACI, SUF, MIND, VLCCF, ANDE, AVR, PEIX, MGPI, VSE, IIIN, ATI, TIE, NTMD, NMTI, CAT, AA, MSTR, SA, AUY, JADE, JOBS, ARO, JCG, CONN, THQI, SGTL, COGO, STEC, IFON, GRRF and RCCC
Fly Sell: ATHR
I sold short 5,000 ATHR, between $16.56-16.71
Fly Sell: BRCM
I sold short 1,000 shares of BRCM @ $26.10.
Quick Alert: Transports Fading
I will likely remain idle today, content with my shorts, longs and 35% cash position.
It appears the bears are making a stand-- driving down the transports. Reason being: where the transports go, the DOW will soon follow.
Keep an eye on this selloff and consider shorting if the .TRAN should go negative.
This rally is weak and could unravel at any moment.
NOTE: The SOX refuses to selloff, up more than 2.2%. Again, I attribute today's rally to spoiled short sellers taking profits.
UPDATE: I can't help myself. The bulls are tripping over themselves, trying to keep this thing (rally) together. It appears the bears will be pressing-- until the close. With that in mind, I will be initating more short sales.
It appears the bears are making a stand-- driving down the transports. Reason being: where the transports go, the DOW will soon follow.
Keep an eye on this selloff and consider shorting if the .TRAN should go negative.
This rally is weak and could unravel at any moment.
NOTE: The SOX refuses to selloff, up more than 2.2%. Again, I attribute today's rally to spoiled short sellers taking profits.
UPDATE: I can't help myself. The bulls are tripping over themselves, trying to keep this thing (rally) together. It appears the bears will be pressing-- until the close. With that in mind, I will be initating more short sales.
Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors
I knew I should have bought RMBS this morning, under $10.50.
Damn.
Anyway, the SOX has emerged as today's leadership group, up better than 2%.
Even though the sector has been torn to pieces, I can't find it in myself to buy them, when already up 2%+. I have zero confidence in the sector, considering the weakening fundamentals and the fact that they are rich with option backdating scandals.
However, I recognize their importance as annointed leader of the technology sector-- even though I wish nothing but bad things for ATHR and BRCM.
Bottom line: These stocks have the look and feel of a short covering rally-- instead of institutional sponsorship. I would not buy into today's spike.
Anyway, the following stocks seems to have some mojo:
RMBS +7.9%
EMKR +7.6%
CHRT +7.6%
SSTI +7.1%
ANAD +6.2%
COHU +5.6%
VSEA +5.5%
SPIL +4.8%
ASTSF +4.5%
ISIL +4.5%
MSCC +4.3%
SPSN +4.2%
Damn.
Anyway, the SOX has emerged as today's leadership group, up better than 2%.
Even though the sector has been torn to pieces, I can't find it in myself to buy them, when already up 2%+. I have zero confidence in the sector, considering the weakening fundamentals and the fact that they are rich with option backdating scandals.
However, I recognize their importance as annointed leader of the technology sector-- even though I wish nothing but bad things for ATHR and BRCM.
Bottom line: These stocks have the look and feel of a short covering rally-- instead of institutional sponsorship. I would not buy into today's spike.
Anyway, the following stocks seems to have some mojo:
RMBS +7.9%
EMKR +7.6%
CHRT +7.6%
SSTI +7.1%
ANAD +6.2%
COHU +5.6%
VSEA +5.5%
SPIL +4.8%
ASTSF +4.5%
ISIL +4.5%
MSCC +4.3%
SPSN +4.2%
Quick Alert: Stay Away from Oil
I have a bad feeling about "bottom fishing" this group today. My sense: oil stocks will remain under pressure-- until we get some hurricane action near the GOM.
Let them come in and buy them when no one else wants to.
NOTE: CEO is bucking the trend today-- up 1% to a new high. And, the tankers continue to charge, with gains in TUG, GMR, OSG and TK.
Let them come in and buy them when no one else wants to.
NOTE: CEO is bucking the trend today-- up 1% to a new high. And, the tankers continue to charge, with gains in TUG, GMR, OSG and TK.
Sector Spotlight: Retail
Peace in the Middle East. No hurricanes in sight. The Fed is done raising rates.
Good times.
Not quite.
However, the market is definately getting a lift from the thought of a cease fire in Lebanon. As a result, oil is getting poleaxed and stocks are gapping higher.
Also, its worth noting, the NIKKEI has been performing quite well lately, up 225 points last night. My favorite way to play Japan is NKZ-wt (NIKKEI 225 call warrants).
The index that looks like it MAY be near a bottom, notice how scared I am to call a bottom, is the RLX (Retail).
The RLX is bouncing off its weekly 200 day MA. Furthermore, it hasn't been this oversold since 2004. If the bulls really want to mount a sigificant rally, they have to pull the RLX up by its short hairs-- in order to negate "the consumer is dead" theory.
Bottom line: Today should be a strong day. However, keep your guard up for a reversal.
Here are some standout retail stocks this morning:
(feel free to leave some of your own in the comments section)
WFMI +6.3%
OATS +5.8%
DDS +4.2% (new high)
WTSLA +3.6%
JWN +3.3%
UARM +3.1%
FRED +3.1%
DLTR +2.6%
DECK +1.9%
FD +1.9%
NOTE: Airlines and the trannies are up 2.9% and 1.3% respectively. On the flip-side: oil stocks are down 1.6%.
Good times.
Not quite.
However, the market is definately getting a lift from the thought of a cease fire in Lebanon. As a result, oil is getting poleaxed and stocks are gapping higher.
Also, its worth noting, the NIKKEI has been performing quite well lately, up 225 points last night. My favorite way to play Japan is NKZ-wt (NIKKEI 225 call warrants).
The index that looks like it MAY be near a bottom, notice how scared I am to call a bottom, is the RLX (Retail).
The RLX is bouncing off its weekly 200 day MA. Furthermore, it hasn't been this oversold since 2004. If the bulls really want to mount a sigificant rally, they have to pull the RLX up by its short hairs-- in order to negate "the consumer is dead" theory.
Bottom line: Today should be a strong day. However, keep your guard up for a reversal.
Here are some standout retail stocks this morning:
(feel free to leave some of your own in the comments section)
WFMI +6.3%
OATS +5.8%
DDS +4.2% (new high)
WTSLA +3.6%
JWN +3.3%
UARM +3.1%
FRED +3.1%
DLTR +2.6%
DECK +1.9%
FD +1.9%
NOTE: Airlines and the trannies are up 2.9% and 1.3% respectively. On the flip-side: oil stocks are down 1.6%.
