Friday, November 10, 2006
Primitive Radio Gods: Standing Outside A Broken Phonebooth
Have a great weekend!
Let's face it: The market is chockful of buyers. Just today, I had a discussion with a fellow money manager and we couldn't pin down where all the liquidity, to drive stocks up, was coming from. Until I floated the brilliant idea that the asshole dip buyers are actually aliens from outerspace, who enjoy jacking high multiple tech stocks up-- in order to placate the populace before they attack us. Considering they are so advanced in counterfeiting technologies, their resources are unlimited. Bad news for the bears.
Aside from that theory, nothing else made any sense.
During today's trading, I liked the action in CTRP, CHINA, FLWS, AKAM, IKAN, ASEI, NYX, MKTX, ICE and ISE.
Quick Alert: The Market will Never Go Down Again
Do not fret 50 times PE ratio's or earnings shortfalls. Instead, continue to buy tech, as the "new economy" adds another .5% to the GDP.
I am 90% long, so this move is beneficial to me. However, when I see stocks like SiRF, RACK and SYNA go up everyday-- it annoys me. I don't know why, it just does.
Anyway, I suspect the market will power up into the close. Different day--same old bull market.
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, your favorite Chinese restaurant may go bankrupt-- effectively starving a large part of your community. Also, your liquidity may crash through the floor.
Fly Sell: CMVT
Disclaimer: If you short CMVT because of this post, wild bears may inhabit your neighborhood, terrifying the local investors. And, you may lose most of your market dollars.
Sector Spotlight: U.S. Dollar, Gold, Oil
However, now that the Democrats have taken power in Congress, I suspect our policy may change. Already, China announced they would be "diversifying" their currency holdings. This means, instead of them buying dollars, they will buy euro's, gold, silver and other market currencies.
Considering China currently own more than 1 trillion dollars, I'd say this is big news. As a result, the dollar has been on a decline, while gold, silver, euros and oil (dollar denominated commodity) have gone up.
Bottom line: The way I am playing this development, as always, is buying the commodity or currency outright. Therefore, I will be adding to my GLD (Gold), USO (Oil) and FXE (Euro trust) positions. If you want to own silver, SLV is the way to go. I fucking hate silver-- way overrated.
As for today's trading:
I sense the dip buyers will make an attempt to rally the market today. Already, I am seeing sharp reversals in many Semiconductor stocks. However, I do believe the market is overdue a minor pullback and feel buying today may be a mistake. We shall see.
NOTE: I am combing thru many stocks, trying to identify the ones that may benefit from a Democratic Congress. So far, I like the following: CCC, AVR, VSE, PMFG, ANDE and ITT. More to come.
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Slick Rick: Children's Story
Life is good.
Democratic Congress stock research forthcoming. CCC is one beneficiary-- more to come.
NOTE: If anyone wants to sum up today's "tea bagging," be my guest.
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Candlebox: Far Behind
It looks like another iron-pressing of the bears tomorrow. Tonight, I will do some extensive research, which I will share with you, on what stocks did well today and should continue to thrive under Democratic leadership.
NOTE: I will be away tomorrow, partaking in client meetings.
Late Day Thought
May God Bless John Chambers (CSCO CEO) and his army of geeks.
How to Play CSCO's Earnings Tonight
|CSCO Cisco Systems: Derivative plays to watch on CSCO earnings (25.32 +0.48) -Update-|
|Ahead of CSCO's earnings report after the close today (see 14:04 comment for preview), we wanted to highlight some companies that have exposure to CSCO, and could see a reaction to the results: In the optical space, we note that OCPI generated 15% of FY05 revs from CSCO, while recent IPO OPTM received 20% of revs from Cisco/SFA... MSPD, which makes components for network infrastructure equipment, said Cisco accounted for approximately 22% of FY05 revs... BRCM noted CSCO was a 10% customer in Q3... Subsystems maker SMOD previously disclosed that CSCO accounted for 14% of FY06 revs... NETL, which sells processors, said CSCO accounted for 74% of 2005 revs... Semiconductor co IDTI noted CSCO represented between 21-24% of revenues in fiscal 2006... Storage network co QLGC sells to CSCO... E.M.S. (electronic manufacturing services) co CLS noted CSCO was one of the co's two largest customers in 2005, with 10%+ of revs coming from CSCO; E.M.S. co JBL said CSCO is one of the co's top 4 customers, but represented less than 10% of 2005 revs (CSCO represented 12% of 2004 revs); and E.M.S. co SLR noted CSCO is its largest customer, representing more than 10% of revs in 2005... Competitor FFIV can also react to CSCO results.|
Position Updates: SiRF
As for SiRF:
I am not anticipating a drastic decline in their business, anytime soon. However, I am aware of significant competition, such as Global Locate. Furthermore, I feel a lot of SiRF's Motorola business may be vulnerable to Global Locate-- considering MOT is an investor in Global Locate.
Bottom line: If the Nasdaq continues its charge, I am sure SiRF and many other semi's will do fine. However, should the market pullback, stocks like SiRF will not hold up very well. My short position is meant to hedge my longs-- not meant to be a bear raid or anything like that.
NOTE: The bears lost their balls to a charging bull.
Quick Alert: Bears Found Their Balls
Also, I am noticing steady declines in the Techies.
In the words of the Great Cramer:
"If I were at my hedge fund, I'd be shorting the SOX until there was no more stock to borrow."
Oh yeah, almost forgot, I am.
UPDATE: Rummy is stepping down, in order to fuck something up in the private sector. I anticipate many changes in our Gov't. Traditionally, the market does not react very well to change. However, this change is a good one and may encourage a few dip buyers to go long-er.
Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors
The reason why they are not: Asshole dip buyers. It's that simple.
If the market goes up today, I might have to throw away my crystal ball. This should be an easy day for the sellers. Let's see if they attached their balls to their bodies, prior to coming to work today.
As for the Semi's:
Watch out for misdirection. This sector has a tendency of tricking people, both long and short. Right now, I am seeing strong upside reversals in BRCM, NVDA, ISIL and many others.
I swear the sellers are pussies.
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Blink 182: Feelin This
Aside from that, I was impressed with the backbone the bulls showed, bidding up high multiple stocks and not giving a fuck about valuation.
I know a lot of money managers who are short the market-- who feel like they are being spun on a rusted pike. Many "smart people" are upping their short positions, while the dumb fuckers continue to make millions. Hopefully, I can accomplish a personal goal of mine-- being a "smart, dumb- fucker." Let me know how I am doing.
Finally, get out and vote-- no matter how ridiculous our politicians are. If I were in charge, thank God I am not, I would require all politicians to wear clown suits and big red noses, while campaigning. This way, we the people get some entertainment out of the process, prior to them fucking us over.
News Service Recommendation
From a pure news standpoint, Briefing.com is the best. However, from a convenience point of you, TheFly radio will enable you to shut off the fuckers on CNBC, forever.
Fly Sell: BRCM
Disclaimer: If you short BRCM because of this post, the next time you cook a Beef Wellington, it may be dry. And, you may lose a mind boggling amount of money.
Fly Sell: SiRF
Disclaimer: If you sell short SiRF because of this post, your water heater may bust, while your on vacation. And, you may lose large sums of dollars.
What Happens Tomorrow?
So, what will happen to the market if the Democrats take control of the house and senate?
For now, I feel the bull run will continue. But, I will add to my Semiconductor shorts, just in case.
Borat Interview on CNN
Borat crushed the CNN interviewer!
Fly Buy: WU
Disclaimer: If you buy WU because of this post, the mafia may hold "meetings" near your favorite store. And, your account value may get "whacked."
Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors
Meaning: Even though stock prices are running out of control, that doesn't mean they can't run another 50% from here. Frothy markets tend to stay frothy.
As for the Semi's:
Terrific strength today. I am seeing big gains across the board and suspect there is a lot of short covering in stocks like ALTR, BRCM and TRID.
For now, ride the wave and enjoy.
The following Semi's have mojo:
Monday, November 06, 2006
Now, we have mid-term elections to deal with tomorrow. My sense is the market will trade up, no matter the outcome.
Bottom line: Until we get recession type data, I feel the market will continue its iron-pressing of the bears-- until their faces resemble a homestyle waffle.
NOTE: The only sector that may see a "reduction" in shareholder value, should the Democrats take both house and senate, is the oil sector-- due to a potential windfall tax bill.
Quick Alert: MARKET ON FUCKING FIRE
Late Day Thought
Fly Buy: MVISW
UPDATE: I bought 10,000 MVISW @ $1.18.
Disclaimer: If you buy MVISW because of this post, "low end" housing developments may spring up near your favorite golf course. Also, you may wind up having to rent one.
Fly Buy: WU
UPDATE: I bought 5,000 WU @ $22.38
Disclaimer: If you buy WU because of this post, you may be extraordinarily poor in your next life. And, you may begin that process now.
Fly Sell: CTXS
Sector Spotlight: Hardware
My whole screen is flashing green, with absurd gains in XMSR, COGO and RACK-- just to name a few. Also, my favorite lotto ticket MVIS is jalapeno hot.
Bottom line: Barring the second coming of Stalin being elected, the market is going to trade up. Also, I feel the micro-caps are the way to go.
As for Hardware stocks:
XMSR posted better-than-expected results and is gapping higher (14%). However, hardware, spearheaded by the fuckers at DELL, has been a boring sector. A money pit. Back in the 90's, Hardware was the place to be. Now, it has been reduced to a low margin see-saw battle of who can steal market share the fastest. Naturally, there are exceptions, like AAPL. But, for the most part, the glory days of IBM-DELL-GTW are nothing more than a memory.
NOTE: Please take the new "Fly Survey." Who will be better for the stock market? Dems or Repubs.
The following Hardware stocks have mojo:
Position Updates: SiRF
Barron's reports SiRF Technology Holdings (SIRF) may have more competition for its GPS in handsets. Coming up fast is a privately held co called Global Locate, an outfit that packs its GPS circuitry onto a single chip -- compared to SiRF's two-chip solution. Global Locate is collaborating with Motorola's (MOT) wireless chip supplier FreeScale Semiconductor (FSL). In fact, SiRF customer Motorola went ahead and invested in Global Locate this year. "They didn't do that because they weren't interested in us," says Global Locate chief executive Scott Pomerantz. He says that Global Locate has also targeted the navigation-device market. "You're going to see some big announcements," says Pomerantz. "Keep watching that space." The GPS business may well prove large enough for all chipmakers to prosper. In the interim, SiRF investors should be aware of Global Locate.
NOTE: On Friday, I highlighted TRFC, because of its cool technology and nice looking chart. Too late, NVT bought them for a 32% premium. Damn- fuckers.