Friday, February 16, 2007
Vanilla Ice: Ice Ice Baby
Word to your Mother!
I know, you are jealous because I have the "calculator brain" and you are just some mid-level management guy-- with a fat wife and bratty kids. Or, maybe you are a "professional trader," with little to no equity--who watches Wall Street-- in order to make believe you are Gekko. I know.
If it makes you feel better, my neighbor's hate me-- because I am always hiring illegal Mexicans to work on my house. Also, whenever my neighbor's say "Hello" or "Hi," I throw empty coffee cups on their lawn.
Aside from my personal dilemma's, I love the market. As a matter of fact, I am downright giddy about the prospect of "further enhancing" my equity next week.
In short, I want to own CENX, ahead of numbers Tuesday and add to my LOW, BWLD, HANS and ADY positions-- on any dip.
Finally, NYC is a fucking tundra. It is so cold--it feels hot. I want to own Natty, specifically SWN or GMXR.
Have a great weekend.
Late Day Thought
Fly Buy: HANS
Disclaimer: If you buy HANS because of this post, your fat stomach will get in the way of your pants. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: ATHR
Breaking News: Prediction for BWLD Shorts
Fly Buy: CENX
Disclaimer: If you buy CENX because of this post, someone may break your iPOD. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: ATHR
Disclaimer: If you buy ATHR because of this post, you may get gingivitis. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Internet
Last night, I ventured off to Buffalo Wild Wings for dinner, to celebrate their "fuck you shorts, you're dead" quarter. At the risk of looking and sounding like a crazy man, I could not help laughing out loud, whenever I was reminded of the "soaring" price of chicken. Seriously, I warned you fuckers who know me, I would mail you my leftover chicken wings from dinner, if BWLD beat the estimate. Actually, I said when it goes to $75-- but who is really paying attention?
Being intelligent hatfuckers, you probably dismissed Fly's threats as "silly" or "he's just joking around with the internets." Wrong.
I am too much of a dick to let you get away with that. Furthermore, I'll have you know, I am having my assistant Fedex a "night's worth" of chicken bones to your house-- for Saturday delivery. You know who you are.
Good luck explaining this to your wife.
As for the markets:
We are probably going to sell off today, ahead of the long weekend. However, I will be instructing my servant/trader to fucking buy, whenever I ring the little bell on my desk. Also, I regret not buying STMP. The stock always rips near Valentines Day. Remember that next year.
Finally, I will accumulate more CENX and prepare to eat the livers of those who short MVIS.
Asshat of the Week Award: Nicole Miller Regan
Meanwhile, chicken prices, she wrote in a note to investors, are skyrocketing. After struggling with an oversupply of chickens earlier in the year due to avian flu fears, chicken producers have restricted their production which has led prices to climb, particularly in the last few months.
Regan noted that prices are up 20 percent in the year's first quarter from the same period last year. The increase, she said, could mean the cost of sales may rise to 32.4 percent of restaurant sales in 2007.
For the current fourth quarter, Regan said she expects the company's cost of sales to be 30.9 percent of total sales, reflecting lower chicken prices earlier in the winter. She added she expects earnings to miss Wall Street's estimates by 1 cent at 52 cents per share when the company reports its fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes Thursday.
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Position Updates: MVIS
Microvision's Gleam Lights Up A Big Screen
How about a cell phone embedded with a tiny projector that displays an image the size of a laptop screen or as big as a plasma TV? Microvision (MVIS ), which develops high-resolution displays and imaging systems, unveiled a prototype of such a device in January at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Corning (GLW ) and Novalux developed the green lasers incorporated into Microvision's ultra-thin, miniature, full-color projection displays, says CEO Alexander Tokman. He is in talks with the major cell-phone makers for partnership deals. "The mini projectors created tremendous buzz," says Peter Conley, managing director at MDB Capital Group. "The market for the laser-based displays in micro form is huge, as the cell-phone market is still basically untapped," he says. Joel Achramowicz, an analyst at MDB Capital, rates the stock a buy and expects Microvision to partner with a handset maker by summer. He sees the stock, now trading at 3.16, doubling in a year.
The Clash: Rock The Casbah
Today was perfect. I was forced to cover my SiRF short and will close out my QID position, near term. This market is going to rip the heads off the shorts, and yank their hearts out-- from their open neck. We are going much, much higher.
I really like the action in the Metals, Telecom and Networkers. Stocks like SVVS, RVBD, LMRA, CENX, FCX, TKC, TLS and ROS look fucking great.
Finally, I am playing CENX, ahead of their numbers, Tuesday evening. I feel they will obliterate the estimate and make me rich-er, than most of you Dunkin' Donut drinking asshats.
Off to go count my fucking money.
Fly Buy: SiRF
Fly Buy: CENX
UPDATE: I bought 2,000 CENX @ $48.25.
UPDATE II: I bought 1,000 CENX @ $48.10.
Disclaimer: If you buy CENX because of this post, your car will be towed. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: DRS
Fly Sell: NTGR
Fly Buy: ADY
Disclaimer: If you buy ADY because of this post, the next time you are driving, a highly caffeinated truck driver will spit on your windshield. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, you will gain 100 pounds-- over the next 5 years. And, you may lose money.
Position Updates: MVIS
Any significant move in LMRA helps MVIS' balance sheet. Hence, the stock should trade up in sympathy.
Fly Buy: NTGR
Disclaimer: If you buy NTGR because of this post, indigenous cacao farmers will starve. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Food & Beverage
After several big days, I expect the market will rest today and offer little excitement. I feel there are a few good trades out there, like NTGR and BWLD ahead of numbers. But, all in all, today will be a napper.
Food and Beverage stocks are doing well, with outsized gains in DA, DKAM, BUD, SFD, TAP, HSY and MSSR.
Additionally, I like the action in the banks. CS, NMR and KB look great. Also, I am thinking about taking a stab at IAAC down here. That stock has been ripped to shreds.
Finally, right now, my favorite market is the NIKKEI. Japan is rocking and I expect they will outperform in 2007. My favorite way to play Japan, is through risky call warrants on the NIKKEI 225-- NKI' or NKI-wt.
Fly Buy: BWLD
Disclaimer: If you buy BWLD because of this post, an anti-chicken diet will sweep the country. And, you may lose money.
Quick Alert: NTRI Still Cheap; Cramer Still Fucktarded
Basically, comparing NTRI to WTW (Weightwatchers) is the best way to find a true valuation. Right now, even after a $4 decline yesterday, WTW is trading 21 x 2007 estimates. Based upon NTRI guidance of $3.00 in earnings for 2007, which they should beat handily, NTRI (at $50 per share) is now trading 16.5 x 2007 estimates-- despite growing at 45% per year, compared to WTW's anemic 10% growth rate.
If NTRI were valued appropriately, it would trade anywhere from 30-35 x 2007 estimates or $90-105 per share. If it traded at the same multiple as WTW, the stock would trade @ $63.
Either way, the stock is still cheap and Cramer is fucktarded.
NTRI Nutrisystem tgt raised to $75 from $72 at Lazard (43.88 ) -Update-
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Position Updates: NTRI
|17:55||NTRI Nutrisystem: Conference call summary (49.39 +2.34) -Update-|
|Co notes that the Board authorized a new $200 mln buyback -- they feel this is the best use of cash at this time. Says strategy is to continue to grow, get better at speaking to customers, and invest in launching new markets and new channels. Co says you can expect a new diet platform out of them by Jan 2008. Co comments on raised guidance, saying estimates have all been raised over the last few weeks as they see good momentum in their business and with additional visibility that comes with the next few weeks, they felt it was appropriate to lift the numbers. Co notes that for 2006 and going forward in order to properly reflect the cost to acquire new customers, they are going to breakout the reactivation media spending and compute the customer acquisition cost (C.A.C.), media spending. They say Q4 direct channel CAC was $188 vs $144 in 4Q05. The customer acquisition costs increased in Q4 because of higher media costs ahead of the highest diet program. Says C.A.C.s were a bit higher than expected in the 1st half of Jan. All in all, for the Q1, they estimate a percentage increase in C.A.C.s in the low-to-mid 20's. They believe the higher rev per customer will offset that... Notes the board has been authorized co to issue $100 mln in debt, but depending on the rate of stock repurchases & cash generation, the co may or may not issue debt. Notes they compared their own web traffic data to popular third party sources, and says it's not tightly correlated... When asked if the after-hours price of ~$50 would still be viewed as an attractive price to buy back stock, co says "yes"... Says they always try to err on the side of conservatism, noting that they want to beat guidance... Q&A is still going on.|
Eamon: Fuck It (I Don't Want You Back)
I'll leave you with this Valentines Day song. No CC today. Gotta make a late day run to Godiva.
Fly=King of the Fucking Pyramid
Right now, everything is fucking ripping higher. The buyers have their dicks in one hand, and their buy tickets in the other.
Have a nice Valentines Day, you Dunkin' Donut drinking, Splenda using, Diet Coke guzzling, recession wishing mother fuckers.
Quick Alert: Highly Caffeinated
While it's true, my recent purchase of QID has gone horribly bad, I am still optimistic on my chances of roasting some SiRF longs today.
Aside from all this, I despise the military fuckers at DRS and wish they suffer food poisoning--sometime in the not-too-distant future.
As for me, I have been "Siberian Wasteland" cold with my dickless stock picks, as of late. However, no need to worry. My superior "calculator brain" will manage to figure this asshattery out in no time.
Back to "work."
Fly Buy: QID
UPDATE: I bought 10,000 QID @ $51.97.
Disclaimer: If you buy QID because of this post, your financial consultant may be "fucktard." And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors
Today, Bernanke is scheduled to open his big fat mouth. Therefore, I anticipate some wild gyrations in U.S. equities.
Already, stocks are doing well, with nice gains in GRMN, TIE, PFCB, FSLR, ACS etc.
Also, it's worth noting, the U.S. dollar is sucking wind. As a result, Gold/Silver are going higher. As you know, SVG is my favorite way to play Gold.
Telecom stocks are outperforming, with outsized gains in TCN, SAT, MICC, RRST, GLDN and SBAC.
Finally, BWLD is the suicide bomber of Broker A's portfolio. I swear to everything holy, BWLD better "nuclear bomb" their earnings estimates and "shotgun" the analyst's who have been "machine gunning" their stock, almost every fucking day. Well done shorts.
NOTE: Men with bigger balls than me are loading up on NTRI, ahead of tonight's numbers. I am hearing rumors of a potential stock buyback.
The following Semi's have mojo:
Position Updates: BWLD
Downgrades: Piper Jaffray downgrades Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD 47.69) to Market Perform from Outperform and lowers their tgt to $49 from $61, as they expect same-store sales to moderate given the difficult y/y comparisons while chicken wing prices are increasing at a double-digit rate and this pressure is expected to impact restaurant profit margin by at least as much as 140 bps on an annual basis.
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
So, if you have a blog or know of one that is worthy--post a link (whore) and I will have my servant examine it for me.
Back to work. Asian trading currently underway.
Red Jumpsuit Apparatus: Face Down
Anyway, I have more important things to do-- like prepare for NY's first snow storm of 2007. This evening, I will venture off to Whole Foods and buy $500+ worth of groceries. When I go food shopping, I fucking buy it all.
As for today's trading:
This type of ambiguous trading is what tricks the bears into poleaxing themselves. While the DOW ripped all day, every fucking seller I know cited weak action in Tech. At first, I agreed with their argument, that weak Tech meant the market would not hold its gains. But, as the day went on, I remembered how fucktarded all these people were and how poor they have become-- shorting stocks throughout 2006. Dunkin' Donuts drinking asshats.
So, I concluded the bears are getting ready to fuck themselves, again. Don't forget, we are still in a bull market and the sellers are old and stupid.
Finally, I really like the action in the Metals, specifically TIE and ATI. Also, my little Chinese play, ADY, looks ready to break-the-fuck-out.
NOTE: AMAT's numbers look good enough to allow Tech to run tomorrow.
Fly Sell: HANS
Quick Alert: Tech Stocks Acting Gay
Anyway, if AMAT comes out with good numbers, we are all saved. If not, Tech will likely take another siesta tomorrow.
Off to go drink a large green can of Monster Energy Soda. I drink green, because I am not a fat fuck-- like most of you leaches out there.
Fly Buy: HANS
Disclaimer: If you buy HANS because of this post, you may have a "tanning" accident. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Steel
As you all can see, the market is ripping higher. Naturally, it is not a surprise to me. As you know, I predicted this move last week, because I am fucking psychic and because I have a crystal ball.
Early this morning, I had my servant/trader sell my QID position-- at a small profit. As of now, the NASDAQ is lagging, mainly because Tech is weak.
Metal stocks are off to the races, with manly gains in ERS, NTO, GGB, FCX and AL. I like TIE right here, right now-- for a trade.
Frankly, there is not much in the red today. Moreover, I suspect the sellers will poleax themselves, late in the day, as the market picks up momentum.
Bottom line: The dip is over. Heading back up, bitches.
NOTE: I wonder if "Fucktard" shorted some QID this morning? He gives the word "Fucktard" meaning.
Monday, February 12, 2007
50 Cents: Funeral Music
I threw a few hedges on the barby, just in case. However, after seeing the "weak kneed" bears at work, I am emboldened. Hence, I will likely cover my shorts, tomorrow.
While it's true, several of my positions are trying to scratch my eyes out (BWLD, NTRI, MVIS), others are kicking ass (HANS, AAPL).
In short, the market is taking a pause. Be patient. Take a few siesta's and eat as much as you can.
Finally, with Oil getting crrrr-ushed, Airliners and Retail did well. Fuck the Airliners. As for Retail, I like ANF and BWLD.
In case you didn't know, BWLD "retails" chicken wings to fat fucks and drunken men. A great long term story, despite "the bird flu."
Late Day Thought
Braveheart: Alternative Ending
Quick Alert: Siesta Over
At my firm, job detail includes: taking siesta's, eating Buffalo Wild Wings, drinking Monster Energy Soda, while cussing out fucktards on the internets. As you can see, productivity is at an all-time high and I am in danger of overheating.
Afterall, not too many money managers get to throw large, heavy objects at his trader/servant. For this, I am grateful. Moreover, I am "doubly" thankful for being such a piker, effectively allowing me to nap-- at any given moment.
As for the markets: Who cares?
I am busy doing other things, like playing darts on Steve Jobs' face or having coffee drinking contests.
In short, I remain in limbo, a catatonic state if you will.
Reminder: HANS is your Grand Daddy's KO.
Fly Sell: SIRF
Disclaimer: If you sell short SIRF because of this post, your neighbor's dog will attack you. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: NASDAQ Stocks
During bull markets, NASDAQ tech stocks can make you feel like you have a full head of hair, wash board stomach and an IQ equal to Einstein's. However, when the bitch starts going down, you start feeling like the dumb, fat fuck, with no hair, that you are-- minus the extra cash.
Fortunately for me, when the markets start going bad, I take naps and brush up on my coffee guzzling skills.
No, seriously, I start hedging. Then, I take a nap.
So, as the market prepares to make you feel like a dumb, hairless, fat fucker (whether you are or not), I suggest you start shorting some stocks-- and fast. Otherwise, you are doomed for poverty.
NOTE: I am using the QID (200% inverse NASDAQ 100) as a hedge against my stupidity.
Fly Buy: QID
Disclaimer: If you buy QID because of this post, overly aggressive mortgage brokers may harass you. And, you may lose money.
Position Updates: HANS, GILD, GME
|HANS Hansen Natural announces distribution deal with PepsiCo Canada - no terms (39.51 )|
|Co announced that it has entered into an agreement with PepsiCo Canada by which PepsiCo Canada will be appointed the exclusive master distributor of Monster Energy, Lost Energy, Joker Mad Energy and Hansen's energy products throughout Canada. PepsiCo Canada will utilize the Pepsi bottling system throughout Canada, led by Pepsi Bottling Group, to implement the distribution and sale of Hansen's products. The terms of the deal were not disclosed.|
|GILD Gilead Sciences: Tamiflu guidance could prove conservative - Piper (71.16 )|
|Piper Jaffray says they learned that the recent 2007 guidance for pandemic sales is based on fixed orders from the US and R.O.W. governments as well as strong indications of upcoming orders. Furthermore, they say Roche stated that the orders in 2007 are new orders and not re-orders from governments replacing old Tamiflu inventories nearing shelf life expiration. Based on qualitative commentary from Roche management, they believe that the Tamiflu guidance and their Tamiflu estimates could prove conservative.|
GME Gamestop Declares Two-for-One Stock Split; Bond buyback increased by $150 Million