Friday, November 17, 2006


Wu Tang Clan: Can It Be All So Simple


Closing Comments

Another day, another new high. This truly is the easiest bull market, since the parabolic market of '03. However, this time around, growth is slowing instead of ramping.

Once again, the semi's ramped and I decided to roll some dice on beaten down SIRI derivative SMDI. Also, it's worth noting, many micro-small cap stocks are exploding to the upside. I can't help but worry: Is the end near?

Clearly, the momentum is in the buyers court. Additionally, the private equity assholes are constantly on the prowl and seasonality dictates stocks should trade up. I hope it will be that simple-- considering I have hardly any hedges in place.

As for me:

I lost about 1% this week, despite monster moves in CORS and RIMM (both positions of mine). However, I remain arrogantly confident that I will knock the fucking cover off the ball by Christmas. If a gun were put to my head, in order to extract a stock pick, I'd say buy SNDK.

Have a great weekend.


Fly Buy: SNDK

I bought 1,000 SNDK @ $47.14.

Disclaimer: If you buy SNDK because of this post, you may accidentally, loudly, pass wind in front of someone important-- near term. And, you may lose money to boot.


Fly Buy: CORS

I bought 1,000 CORS @ $23.17.

Disclaimer: If you buy CORS because of this post, the next time you open a soda bottle, it will explode. Plus, you may lose money.


Fly Buy: SMDI

I bought 5,000 SMDI @ $8.20.

Disclaimer: If you buy SMDI because of this post, weird elf's may populate your area and send real estate values plummeting. And, you may lose money.


Mandatory NYMEX Post

Fuck the NYMEX and everyone who bought it in the aftermarket. I hope the stock "death spirals" out of control and goes to $55.

You are all river boat gamblers. Unlike me, I buy "quality" stocks like MVIS and CNVR.


Quick Alert: Crazy Man on CNBC

He just said oil was going "under $20" within 4 years.

He said: "It could be for 5 minutes or 5 months, but its going under $20."


Sector Spotlight: Metals

Nothing pleases an asshole dip buyer more than a down market. With the Nazz in the red here (-6), I feel the "powers that be" will give it a college try to make it green-- by days end.

Today, if you are long the Metals, you are certainly feeling your oats-- with monster gains in X, STLD, and NUE. I like the sector and feel it is cheap.

As for Tech:

I like the action in SNDK and KLAC. However, for the most part, the Techies are taking the day off-- as all of you fuckers are waiting to buy NYMEX. Please.

Finally, I am taking a close look at SWN and CHK. Has anyone noticed, despite fucking tropical-like weather in NYC, natural gas is now trading @ $8.11? I'm thinking of getting out of my lounge chair, putting the pina-colada down, and buying me some SWN (my favorite natural gas stock).

The following Metal stocks have mojo:

X +8.7%
STLD +4.9%
CLF +4.6%
NUE +4.4%
ATI +3.7%

Thursday, November 16, 2006


Weezer: Say it ain't So Live (Live)


Closing Comments

All of the "Fly Buy" posts prior to this one is part of my asset allocation program. Approximately, 1 million dollars will be invested. As you can see, I make sure it will be well diversified.

As far as I am concerned, today's action was lackluster. I lost money in MVIS, SNDK and VLO, while making a few coins in ADBE, CNVR and RIMM. By the way, RIMM is on its way to $200.

Aside from the mind numbing declines in oil related stocks, I thought the market bored its way higher. After the close, there were a few earnings disappointments, namely from SBUX.

My best guess is for more of the same tomorrow.

NOTE: It appears the momentum players are becoming impatient with MVIS. My approach is longer term and I will buy on all dips, fyi.


Fly Buy: VSE

I bought 500 VSE @ $22.03.


Fly Buy: UPL

I bought 200 UPL @ $50.11.


Fly Buy: STI

I bought 500 STI @ $80.91.


Fly Buy: SU

I bought 250 SU @ $75.55.


Fly Buy: SNDK

I bought 500 SNDK @ $46.75.


Fly Buy: PG

I bought 500 PG @ $63.64.


Fly Buy: VIP

I bought 200 VIP @ $67.47.


Fly Buy: NTRI

I bought 500 NTRI @ $65.60.


Fly Buy: NAL

I bought 1,000 NAL @ $16.75.


Fly Buy: NDAQ

I bought 500 NDAQ @ $36.39.


Fly Buy: NIHD

I bought 200 NIHD @ $64.85.


Fly Buy: LABL

I bought 500 LABL @ $32.92.


Fly Buy: MVIS

I bought 6,000 MVIS @ $2.71.


Fly Buy: LOW

I bought 1,000 LOW @ $30.77.


Fly Buy: LNC

I bought 500 LNC @ $65.56.


Fly Buy: HANS

I bought 500 HANS @ $28.03.


Fly Buy: GXP

I bought 200 GXP @ $32.61.


Fly Buy: GERN

I bought 2,000 GERN @ $8.74.


Fly Buy: DNA

I bought 500 DNA @ $80.87.


Fly Buy: RAIL

I bought 500 RAIL @ $56.99.


Fly Buy: AGE

I bought 500 AGE @ $58.45.


Fly Buy: EXP

I bought 500 EXP @ $42.33.


Fly Buy: BWLD

I bought 1,000 BWLD @ $55.76.


Fly Buy: BXC

I bought 1,000 shares of BXC @ $10.90.


Fly Buy: BDK

I bought 500 BDK @ $89.11.


Fly Buy: AKAM

I bought 1,000 AKAM @ $49.22.


Quick Alert: Get Out of the Way

Just when you think the market may go down, for a day, the glorious dip buyers step in with their bags of cash-- buying whatever resembles a stock. For a long, this is great. Not only is the economy running efficiently (excluding housing), but the market is hell bent on going higher-- no matter how many fucktarded sellers get in the way. Think steam roller.

Anyway, if I were a dip buyer, I would be buying the Semi's, especially SNDK. Furthermore, I am wondering if NDAQ is a buy-- on this dip.


Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors

The CPI was great, so the market should rip higher, right? Not so fast fuckers.

Generally, the market makes an ass out of its participants, regularly. Yours truly included in a big way. However, I tend to never believe in any trend, a natural skeptic if you will, which enables me to "flip-flop" my bias within minutes. As a result, I have produced consistant, but volatile, returns for years.

Potentially, today would be a classic reversal day, where the fuckers on the exchange floor play misdirection with the small, piker, investor.

Meaning: Since everyone thinks the market is going up today, it will probably go down.

As for the Semi's:

They are selling off a bit here. AMAT, SLAB and LRCX are the biggest laggards, while crazy people pile into IRSN and RMBS.

All in all, today should be an interesting bear-bull fight. For now, my money is on the bull.

NOTE: Today, I will be allocating new money raised. So, you will see an unusual amount of "Fly Buys."


Funniest Cramer Parody Ever

I rarely go out of my way to recommend other sites. But, you guys have to see this Cramer parody @ WallStrip. Fucking brilliant!

Wednesday, November 15, 2006


Filter: Hey Man, Nice Shot


Closing Comments

I had a great day, being long CORS. Furthermore, despite my short sale disasters, I am now up 25.7%-- year to date.

I remain bullish on laggard semi's, such as SNDK. However, I will watch the market closely to see if the S&P 500 can break the 1,400 level. If not, who knows, maybe I will walk around the office, dickless-- short U.S. equities into Thanksgiving. But, I doubt it.

Bottom line: I am buying stocks that are heavily shorted, in an effort to crush some sellers-- mainly for fun.

Aside from my evil side:

I think the market has legs. Moreover, I will continue to add to dicerolls, such as MVIS and CNVR.

Good times.


Fly Buy: MVIS

I bought 5,000 MVIS @ $2.89.

Disclaimer: Buying MVIS because of this post, may cause impotence. And, you may lose money.


Fly Buy: SNDK

I bought 3,000 shares of SNDK @ $47.25.

Disclaimer: If you buy SNDK because of this post, seagulls may crap all over your car. And, you may lose money.


Late Day Thought

Short sellers are the new assholes. Long live the dip buyers!


Position Updates: CORS, CSWC

CORS has been a position of mine for awhile. I sense a change in the direction of the stock-- that's why I am adding to my position. The books are clean-- the loans are good. Hence, the stock is too cheap and is responding to a short squeeze today.

CSWC is the best publicly traded Venture Capital company-- bar none. Additionally, they own a large piece of Heely's, scheduled to ipo sometime in the near future. The stock quietly goes up everyday.


Fly Buy: CNVR

I bought 5,000 shares of CNVR @ $5.38.

UPDATE: I bought 5,000 CNVR @ $5.08.

Disclaimer: If you buy CNVR because of this post, stray dogs may "relieve" themselves on your neatly manicured lawn. And, you may lose money.


Fly Buy: CORS

I bought 5,000 shares of CORS @ $21.68.

Disclaimer: If you buy CORS because of this post, you may never get invited to the Playboy mansion. And, you may lose money.


Sector Spotlight: Trannies

Even though I scored on CMVT, I am pissed I didn't short more. Had I known...

Anyway, it seems any news on MVIS jolts the stock. I have a very good feeling about this company and feel there is real potential for a major winner, by year end.

So far, the market is continuing the bullish path its been on and I am relieved to have covered my fucking shorts. Today, there is a lot of buying in the Trannies, which is usually a very good sign for the DOW. My fav Trannie, ACLI, continues to run higher. Additionally, I like the crazy action in the Airlines, especially JBLU-- up 9.3%

The following Trannies have mojo:

ACLI +2.8%
PWX +2.5%
GWR +2.3%
UTIW +2%
FLA +2%


Fly Buy: CMVT

I covered my CMVT short, buying 5,000 @ $17.55.


Position Updates: CMVT

I am currently short 5,000 CMVT. Sometimes I get lucky.

Via Briefing:

Comverse Tech provides update on its investigation; co identified errors in the recognition of revenue related to certain contracts (20.64 -0.32) : Co announced that, in connection with the ongoing investigation by the Special Committee of the co's Board of Directors of the company's stock option practices and related accounting matters, the co identified errors in the recognition of revenue related to certain contracts, errors in the recording of certain deferred tax accounts and the misclassification of certain expenses in earlier periods. In addition, based on information provided to the co, areas of financial reporting under investigation include the possible misuse of accounting reserves and the understatement of backlog in fiscal 2002 and prior periods. The co previously had disclosed its preliminary conclusion that the actual dates of measurement for certain past stock option grants for accounting purposes differed from the recorded grant dates for such awards. The co substantially has completed its investigation of employee stock option practices and has made a preliminary determination of the effect on its previously issued financial statements. The Special Committee's investigation continues, and the co is unable to estimate the effect of the other accounting issues on its previously issued financial statements or the time it will take to complete the necessary restatements.

Susquehanna says CMVT reports further problems, indicating financial restatements are likely to extend beyond options repricing to rev recognition and the possible misuse of accounting reserves. At this juncture, firm has limited visibility into the impact to their forecasts or the timing of the pending restatements. Therefore, they are more comfortable on the sidelines and are removing their recommendation of CMVT shares. Firm believes the most likely scenario is an extended 6-12 month delay in reporting restated financials, which should increase the possibility of delisting by the NASD. Outside of any potential good news from periodic backlog announcements, future positives are likely to be longer term, with: (a) restated financials; (b) updated listing status; and/or (c) possible acquisition. With a backlog of $750+ mln, a product upgrade cycle underway, and net cash of ~$1.4 bln, firm believes the shares could be attractive to strategic and financial acquirers.

Finally, Goldman downgraded these crooked fuckers to a sell.

I win.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006


Wu-Tang Clan: Bring the Pain


Closing Comments

Please, ignore whatever I think I am doing here. I just got Poleaxed (note the capital P) shorting semiconductors into a fucking short squeeze. Frankly, there is nothing I find funny about being manhandled in such a crude and disrepsectful fashion. However, from your point of view, it must be laugh out loud funny.

Anyway, I ate the bullet on my SiRF and BRCM shorts and added to my SNDK position. My sense, the sellers will soon capitulate on SNDK and drive shares up to its 50 day moving average at $52. Also, I added to my MVIS and CORS positions-- both are cheap.

However, with my luck, not only will we get bad economic data tomorrow, Goldman will downgrade SNDK to boot. We will see.

As for today's trading:

Unbelievable short squeeze, spearheaded by massive futures buying. I witnessed unreal strength in the Homebuilders, Semi's and Retail. Furthermore, I anticipate the market will leg up and crush the bears, in fairly short order.

NOTE: Don't ask how much the SiRF loss was. Fuckers.


Fly Buy: CORS

I bought 2,000 CORS @ $21.

Disclaimer: If you buy CORS because of this post, you may never win the lottery. Furthermore, you may lose your life savings.


Fly Buy: SNDK

I bought 20,000 SNDK @ $46.61.

Disclaimer: If you buy SNDK because of this post, Carl Icahn may buy your company, fire you and steal your favorite pen. And, you may lose money.


Fly Buy: SiRF

I covered my SiRF short, buying 55,000 shares @ $29.45.


Fly Buy: BRCM

I covered my short in BRCM, buying 11,000 @ $33.35.


Capitulation Alert: Covering My Shorts

I can't hold on anymore. I am eating some serious crow on SiRF and BRCM. Therefore, I am covering my entire position at these cocksucking levels. It was a stupid thing to do-- betting against stocks going into the Christmas season. I felt like some sort of grinch, shorting stocks like some sort of fucktarded, dickless, asshat. But that's just me.

NOTE: I am still short CMVT and hold a minor position in MZZ.


Fly Buy: MVIS

I bought 5,000 shares of MVIS @ $2.83.

UPDATE: I bought 2,500 MVISW @ $1.13.

UPDATE: I bought 20,000 MVIS @ $2.90

Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, unwelcome guests may unexpectedly visit you for the holiday's. And, you may sustain massive monetary losses.


Position Updates: RIMM, ACLI

Both RIMM and ACLI have been big winners for me in 2006. However, I do feel they are due for a pullback-- maybe as much as 10%.

If you were lucky enough to buy ACLI on my "FlyBuy,"now might be a good time to take a profit. However, I will hold both positions and buy more after a dip. They are long term positions of mine.

Clarification: I, personally, will do no "dip-buying." It will be my trader who actually does the buying-- making him a bonafide asshole dip-buyer. I just wanted to make that clear.


Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors

Wow, those were great numbers. The biggest drop in core inflation in 13 years. Good job Bernanke.

After seeing those numbers, I thought for sure the market would be up 100+. Instead, we are up only 2 and weakening. Huh?

I suppose the buy on rumor-sell on news logic applies. Nonetheless, the U.S. economy seems to have ridden itself of the inflation bug. A big plus for the bulls.

As for the Semi's:

They came out the gates charging, but now look tired. After being up so much yesterday, I anticipate a mild selloff. One pocket of strength worth noting is recent laggard SNDK. However, the general picture in the group looks bearish today.

The following Semi's have mojo:

ATE +3.6%
MOSY +3.2%
UCTT +2.3%
SPIL +2.3%
SIRF +1.9%

Monday, November 13, 2006


Oops: Tweet


Closing Comments

That's it. I am predicting, right here--right now, a top in the market. When the fucking shitbag Chinese stocks start going up, you know people don't know what the fuck they are doing. They are just randomly speculating in letters with numbers. Assholes.

Come on. One day gains in CAAS, CLWT, CHDX, CTDC, CHNR, CYD and CEDA are unnatural and unsustainable.

This week is a big one for economic data. Therefore, before following my "market top" call, wait for the data to confirm weaker-than-expected growth.

Aside from Chinese stocks, it was a strong session. The Semi's were very strong and so were Airlines, Trannies and Software. The only notable sector that took the day off were the Retailers.

However, no need to worry. MA has assured us that America is fucking digging their debt grave a little deeper, in order to buy shiny, new Ipod's and Flat screen T.V.'s. Obviously, a must have for a decadent society.



Fly Buy: MVIS

I bought 10,000 shares of MVIS @ $2.61.

Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, you may become the laughing stock of your neighborhood. And, you may lose money.


Late Day Thought

Cramer's AAP is only up 2.67%, year to date. What a piker.


Position Updates: WU

Western Union (WU) is riding on the coat tails of MA. I suspect a lot of institutional interest in the spinoff, over the next 6 months.

Frankly, I can't think of a better financial stock. Give it a good look.

NOTE: I am starting to see some weakness in leadership names. Don't be surprised to see the market reverse negative, sometime today.


Quick Alert: Chinese Stocks on Fire

Every once in awhile, stocks from China go nuts. Today, they are going nuts. Perhaps, the sub 100 IQ'ers are buying these stocks-- due to the debut of EFUT. Who knows?

The following stocks from China have mojo:

EFUT +25%
CAAS +22%
CEDA +19%
CLWT +13%
CHDX +10%
CHID +10%
CHCG +9%
CEEC +5.3%
JOBS +5%
CYD +5%
CTDC +3%
CNTF +2.8%


Sector Spotlight: Biotech

So far this morning, the market is ripping higher-- rewarding those who believe in her. As for the sellers, their stomachs are being roasted in hell (props to Baghdad Bob for that one).

The sector that has my attention is Biotech. Almost everyday, one of these little biotech's are getting bought out, at absurd premiums, or they are releasing good drug data-- sending their stocks through the roof. One thing is evident: The market has no fucking idea how to value the sector. Albeit, buying a small biotech, prior to an FDA meeting, can lead to rapid cutting off of the head (AVNR). However, I always felt that risk is the thread that holds the market together. Without it, there would be no 25% up days, like ISIS.

Bottom line: Building a position in small Biotech names is worth a shot, only if its done in moderation.

NOTE: Everything else is on fire, except MVIS. Unfortunately, MVIS decided to price a secondary @ $2.39 or 15% below market. Nonetheless, it is necessary that the company improve their balance sheet, in order to get the big orders. It sucks to be long today. However, I have the utmost confidence that once they ink their first Picop deal, I will be more than happy for sticking with them.

NOTE II: Please take the new "Fly Survey," Recession in 2007?

The following Biotech stocks have mojo:

ISIS +26%
GENE +5.2%
XOMA +4%
COLY +3.6%
ALNY +3.6%
CEGE +3.3%
ZGEN +3.1%

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DISCLAIMER: This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any FINRA broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.