Saturday, August 18, 2007
Weekend Fun: Kick Another Blogger/Trader in the Head
Friday, August 17, 2007
Nas, Jay-z , Papoose: Black republican
In short, I feel the DOW will go straight to 13,500, then consolidate. The sell off was too quick. Now it's our turn (the bulls).
During the coming rally, I will avoid the temptation of buying the financials. There is still fundamental problems with them and pose too great a risk. Instead, I will continue to buy the names that will be unaffected by the "credit crunch," such as HANS, LNN, VMI, AAPL and MVIS.
As you know, Hurricane Dean aka "The Deacon of Death," is on its way to knock over those fucking oil rigs. By Monday, I anticipate to see natty up 10% and my natty plays spike-- which include GLF, NGS, FUEL, NGAS, BEXP and FUEL.
Looking over the carnage, IIG looks dirt cheap. There have been lots of chatter around the name. I wouldn't be surprised to see YHOO make a bid.
Finally, over the weekend, "The Fly" will be heavily inebriated, thanks to "market volatility." The game plan is too sit back, drink some "rich man's whiskey," eat some popcorn, while watching "The Deacon of Death" knock the fucking mountains off Jamaica.
Position Update: MVIS
Regarding future deals, I am hearing some chatter, with regards to another OEM deal-possibly imminent. My source is more bullish than ever-- and is adamant about the stock going to $10, by Christmas.
Quick Alert: Fly's Weatherman Boldly Predicts Dean's Path
Here is where the rigs (glorified bowling pins) are:
INSTANT EMERGENCY ASSHAT AWARD: Peter Schiff
To make matters worse, he believes, despite the world's largest market going offline and its people becoming "poor," the rest of the world will get "rich." Hence, he is buying foreign stocks.
Har, har, har. Robster too expensive.
Dean is Going to Smoke Jamaica
Just now, my weatherman said Hurricane Dean will be a Cat5 storm by Monday.
Thus far, there is no way of knowing where this reverse jackpot "Deacon of Death" will land. However, I find it hard to imagine any trader being short natural gas, going into the weekend. As a result, I've been buying UNG, GLF, NGAS, NGS, FUEL and GMXR.
Here is the latest picture, taken by my weatherman, from the luxury of his dumb ass helicopter.
Fly Buy's: HANS, LNN, NGAS and EQIX
Time Machine Anyone?
I didn't think so.
As you know, I'm very busy.
The way this is going to play out, in my opinion, is we are going up 300-400 points today, while punching the mustache's off the short sellers.
Right now, I am buying LNN, EQIX and NGAS.
"Nice guy, fuck you; go home and play with your kids"
Late Night Observation
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Jay Z: Can't Knock The Hustle
During the day, I sold off some non-core positions and covered all my shorts. I nailed the timing on covering LAZ-- and selling my SRS long.
Additionally, I loaded the fuck up on FCX, more than I posted here--on this stupid blog. I got prints as low as $68. And, as you know, I loaded up on NGAS, MVIS and HANS--late in the day.
In short, I feel the sentiment shifting. The danger is swinging to the short camp, as rumors of an emergency rate cut make its way around trading desks.
Naturally, only the Fed knows what it will do, regarding the Federal Funds rate. However, it's worth mentioning, managers are starting to believe the Fed is coming to the "rescue."
Finally, during this bounce, look for the basic material and financial stocks to lead the way. Believe it or not, I like CFC here-- only for a bounce. And, of course, some of the metal names, like RS, CENX, FCX and PCU.
Don't forget, the risk to the system is still there; however, should the Fed do its job, life can get a lot easier for the longs.
NOTE: To celebrate today's rally, I just went into the stairwell and kicked an old man down a flight of stairs, while drinking some florescent green soda (Monster Energy)-- from my diamond encrusted chalice.
NOTE II: The 'Golden Bear' worked. Fuck my voodoo Doctor.
Late Day Thought
Update on Hurricane Dean
Thus far, it is not tracking towards the fucking oil rigs. However, this can change rapidly.
Here is an updated pic, taken from the helicopter of my weatherman:
Fly Buy: HANS
No time for disclaimers.
Fly Buy: NGAS
Disclaimer: If you buy NGAS because of this post, Hurricane Dean will destroy your house. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: MVIS
UPDATE: I bought 10,000 MVIS @ $4.50.
Disclaimer: Why bother?
Getting Washed Out
I cut down multiple positions, so that I may live to fight another day. I suspect lots of investment guru's are taking a similar approach to today's tape.
I took a stab at FCX, because it's almost dead. What the hell?
ETFC is getting its balls lit on fire. Fuck them, I hope that company files for chapter 11, today.
In short, if the planet doesn't explode, tomorrow is another day. Take it easy and try to remember that it's only green paper with funny little pictures on it. If it makes you feel better, just make your own money. Just don't try to buy anything with it.
NOTE: When I say "I'm selling shit left and right," it's hardly meaningful. I'm still long out my ears.
Fly Sell: SRS
UPDATE: I sold 1,000 SRS @ $119.10.
Fly Buy: FCX
UPDATE: I bought 5,000 FCX @ $69.88.
Disclaimer: If you buy FCX because of this post, you will go blind. And, you may lose money.
"Tonight we dine in Hell"
Fly Buy: LAZ
Sector Spotlight: Sub Prime
And, on top of that, Hurricane Dean is looking like a real 'Cane of Death,' but no one cares. People are saying "umm, excuse me, sir, it's not going to hit the oil rigs." Well, fuck you lady, I say those rigs are glorified bowling pins, while Dean is the ball of hell (of course).
I sold my yen (stupid) yesterday, in order to raise cash-- and it's through the roof today. Mother Market has no mercy, but is no longer trying to punch me in the nose. The bitch is trying to kill me, via precipitous declining stocks.
With my money, I am ready to sell short every sub-prime/mortgage stock on the planet. However, being so oversold, I'm fretting the prospect of selling at the low. How funny would that be?
I think it makes sense to sell short automobile sub primers, such as ACF, CPSS, CACC and CCRT. Also, aside from the usual suspects, I will be looking to sell short RWT, TGIC, MTG, NCT, CHC, RDN, MMA, CSE, SF and GLAD.
As you know, "The Fly" treats his staff with respect and honor.
Woodshedder will be informed of his firing, via random internet message board post.
To commemorate his "tenure" on this blog, I will play his favorite violin song. As you know, Woodshedder is a professional violinist.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Late Night Observation
Naughty By Nature - Everythings Gonna Be Alright
It's all over. The market has, officially, given back all of its gains. Now, get ready to feel some serious pain, as CFC heads to bankruptcy.
I said it before, I'll say it now, the Fed needs to cut by 50 basis points, in order to "rescue" the world: fuck the lenders.
As for me, I'm over here throwing loaded dice at "hurricane plays," getting blown to smitherines in retarded stocks like GLF. This fucker is acting like a sub-prime lender. Fuck me.
On the bright side, I still have a small LAZ short position and a large SRS long. However, my longs are getting "machine gunned" so badly; my hedges are more like ornaments, than something worth talking about.
I have cash reserves and many short idea's; but for some reason, I'm waiting for a bounce.
The problem with waiting for a bounce, it may never come. We may go straight to 12,500, resulting in staggering losses.
If you have the luxury of cash, don't spend it yet. There will be ample opportunities to catch a bounce. It's just not here, yet.
Finally, I sold some of my yen, for symbolic reasons. I bagged a quick 5k on the trade and will now pray to the stock God's to keep the yen carry trade intact.
NOTE: TS Dean better do some serious damage, else natty will get smashed to small pieces.
NOTE II: I spoke with the CEO of MVIS and he reiterated his bullish tone, with regards to technical advances and prospects of future agreements.
Fly Sell: FXY
The Important Matter of 'Golden Bulls'
As you know, he (voodoo guy) has been making me put up a ridiculous picture of a 'Golden Bull,' with a bunch of lunatics bowing to it.
Basically, I just found out, my voodoo Doctor is a "bear fucking" shit holder. The picture was not of a bull, but a 'Golden Bear' in a bull disguise.
This vexes me, as you know.
In short, he used me to drive the market lower, via posting the "Golden Bear."
Fly Buy: NTRI
Disclaimer: If you buy NTRI because of this post, you will gain 25 lbs. And, you may lose money.
Quick Alert: SPECIAL BREAKING NEWS
"Dean is a mad man (not Howard Dean, the storm)"
Fly Buy: UNG
UPDATE: I bought 1,000 UNG @ $43.69.
Disclaimer: If you buy UNG because of this post, Al Sharpton will be elected President. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: GMXR
Disclaimer: If you buy GMXR because of this post, the Italian mafia will accidentally rig your car with explosives. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: FUEL
Disclaimer: If you buy FUEL because of this post, your muffler will fall off your car. And you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Natty
Barring a sudden change, Dean will be a ganja smoking Cat 4, by the time he reaches Jamaica.
Obviously, on this news, I am bulking up on natty, via UNG. Additionally, there are several stock plays worth playing, notably NGS, GLF, BEXP, NGAS, GMXR, GLBL and FUEL.
As for the general market:
Despite pending doom, I am hoping for a bounce today, now that I am mostly unhedged.
Bottom line: I am using the extreme volatility to trade, either long or short. I feel uncomfortable shorting into such oversold conditions, but feel equally frustrated trying to catch the falling knife.
In short, until things settle down, I will trade in and out of stocks, like some sort of day trading fool. Furthermore, I will "nibble" or bite into some hurricane plays, as Dean makes his way to Crude Broker's trailer park.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Cramer is Right About the Fed
Back in 1929, Hoover and Co. were more interested in "fighting inflation," than helping the system, post crash. That fucker (Hoover) actually called companies and municipalities pleading with them to not change their business plans, despite what the environment dictated.
As a result, companies didn't fire anyone or stop projects, until it was too late. Hence, "The Great Depression." Also, rates were not cut in time. As a matter of fact, thanks to the fucktarded gold standard, the Gov't was reducing money supply, effectively tightening. Instead of recognizing the real problem (destruction of wealth), they were still fighting 1928's problem, inflation.
Now, of course, things are different now. Worldwide, unlike then, economies are bustling and the investor class is stronger.
However, it's important to note lenders like TMA getting its whig pushed back. This is not a "sub prime" fucker. I'm sure 90% of you retards couldn't get a loan from TMA.
My point: The Fed has to cut rates soon. If not, we will continue to see real pressure mount in the banking system, then collapse. While it's true, it's not the "Feds job" to rescue lenders; it is their job to ensure the fucking banking system works. Don't you get it, you dumb fucks?
When you have AAA paper trading in the 60's, there is as real problem. Don't minimize it.
Try avoiding a recession, while WM & CFC file for chapter 11.
UPDATE: Fucking "Great Depression" soup line pic added for effect.
Paula DeAnda: Easy
Oh, and how about the "safe haven" in tech, poleaxing the faithful today, with "big dicked" losses in the semi's, networkers and internets.
As for me:
I am betting on a bounce, but not expecting much. For the most part, I've been in and out of stocks, like a whack-a-mole, trying to scalp profits.
No exaggeration, I have been 100% successful in my recent day trades. Proving once again, how much smarter I am than you, via my *patented* "calculator brain."
It's amazing to see TMA getting blown out. Those guys are prime baby.
Just burn your house and call it a day.
Finally, I'll have you know, right now, "The Fly" has his new weatherman flying his helicopter in the middle of Tropical Storm Dean, to check for wind shear-- and shit like that. I told him "find me a fucking hurricane you stupid bastard, shit is tight here."
Last time he called, he said "it's fucking windy out here," enabling "The Fly" to go long some natty.
Fly Sell: FMCN
The Appearance of Being Oversold
In short, this is what fear looks like. Apparently, the 'credit crunch' is so bad, it is poised to cripple the banking system. This is amateur hour.
Look, during deep corrections, 1929 style crashes seem possible. Everyone is bearish. There is no upside.
This thought process, of course, is dangerously wrong. While it's nonsensical to hope for a v shape recovery; it's equally stupid to short into this much weakness.
As a result, I have closed out OEX put positions and 3/4th's of my LAZ short. I will keep my SRS long, just in case LEH files bankruptcy.
Har, har, har.
My sense, now is a good time to buy the dips, for a trade. Should this dip buying adventure prove wrong, ensure tight stops.
NOTE: My buy list includes FMCN, GLF, NGS, MVIS, LNN, RS and HANS.
Fly Buy: FMCN
Disclaimer: If you buy FMCN because of this post, Bush will fire Bernanke and reappoint Greenspan. And, you may lose money.
SPECIAL EMERGENCY ALERT: Behold
UPDATE: It is here. Behold. Dow down 161 at time of post.
UPDATE II: I was instructed to "quickly remove the bull." Apparently, it is needed for tonight's Asian trading session.
Fly Buy's: BEXP, NGS, UNG, GLF
Disclaimer: If you buy any of the above stocks, a Cat 6 hurricane will destroy your favorite nightclub. And, you may lose money.
Evacuate. Nah, Just Kidding. Run.
Fly Buy: LAZ
UPDATE: I covered 2,000 more LAZ @ $38.70.
UPDATE II: I covered 2,000 more LAZ @ $38.66.
UPDATE III: I covered 2,000 more LAZ @ $38.60.
Sector Spotlight: Energy
As fucked up as it seems, a 'Cane of Death' is exactly the type of distraction the market needs, you know, to get the gambling hand shaking again. Again, here is my speculative watch list.
From what I understand, a hurricane hunter will be flying into the depression, within a few hours. Should the data suggest Florida is fucked, I'll be buying natty stocks with two hands.
As for today's trading:
It's gay, why bother? Lots of downward pressure, particularly in the financials. Don't be a hero and step in now. As you know, hero's get shot first.
It's worth noting strength in biotech and steel, but not much. In my opinion, the quick money is to be made on the downside, via SRS, QID or short LAZ (or a financial of your choosing). Should that tropical depression "get its swirl on," look for the market to rally.
Bunch of sick fuckers in this market place.
UPDATE: TD4 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Dean.
NOTE: Please take the new "Fly Survey." Are you bullish or bearish on the market?
Hat tip: Wunderground
Monday, August 13, 2007
Cat 2-5 'Cane of Death' to Hit Florida--Short Term
From what I understand, the tropical depression fiddling around in the Atlantic is going to "get its swirl on," within a few short days. Moreover, that son of a cunt will flatten your house, providing you are dumb enough to live down south, as if it were made of pancakes.
Upon confirmation from my people, that the "Cane of Death" will strike, immediately, I will buy some UNG, NGAS, BEXP, NGS, GMXR, FUEL, GGR, TXCO, BXC, GSX, BDCO and ALJ to get started; then I'll call some friends in Florida and tell them to head north.
In short, playing the "hurricane game" from the luxury of a dry office in NYC is fun, but tedious. Mother Nature is not as predictable as Mother Market, obviously.
Smashing Pumpkins: That's The Way (Live)
Off to eat some swordfish.
Today's reversal in the financials was severe and will beget more selling tomorrow. As for me, I managed to squeak out a 1% gain, via shorts, day trades and rebounding dogs.
As you know, "The Fly" spits at those fuckers who invented "quant funds." Moreover, if given the chance, he'd ("The Fly") make sure the manager's of those funds had their eyebrows punched off.
As far as I'm concerned, the market cannot go higher, until the investment banks guide down their numbers and let you sheeple know how badly they fucked up.
Talking to people, I can tell you, without pause, the over leveraged hedge fund guy is going to need lots of viagra, going forward.
Today, I witnessed brutal reversals in the metals, financials and retail sectors. There was nominal strength in the trannies and big industrial names, but not much.
For the most part, I feel the quick money will be made by betting against the market. Meaning: sell into rallies, buy into dips.
As for LAZ:
Those fuckers will have to guide numbers down big. More than 60% of their revenue is from m&a. See you at $35, lazy fuckers.
Late Day Thought
UPDATED Thought: Whoever invented the "quant fund" is a fucktarded, dickless asshat.
Fly Sell: AZZ
Busy Little Bees
Fly Sell: LAZ
Disclaimer: If you sell short LAZ because of this post, your oatmeal will spoil. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Financials
However, I want to buy stocks that have been beaten down, due to fund liquidations. Today, I started buying back AZZ. With any momentum, AZZ will net a quick 5 points.
In general, today's trading is superb, with the exception of the homies.
Once again, the only aggressive housing play for me is via a bank, CORS. Other than that, I feel the homebuilders have a quick 10% to the downside left.
The financials opened up, punching the bears in the scrotum, right out the gates. However, it's worth noting, they're weakening.
Beware of the "value trap." These fuckers still have significant headline risk.
With my money, I'll continue to short LAZ, due to the likelihood of a contraction in m&a.
Nonetheless, CORS, ECPG, CLMS, KBW, ACGL, BX, DHIL, KB, GS, BSC and LEH have mojo.
Finally, at the end of the day, it makes sense adding to names unaffected by the "credit crunch." Meaning: Staying long stocks that are not take over targets or in the financial space. In my opinion, discounts in MVIS, AZZ, LNN, VMI, FTK, FMCN, NTRI and AEO should be bought.
However, appropriate hedges should still be held.
Fly Buy: AZZ
Disclaimer: If you buy AZZ because of this post, your violin will break. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: CENX
UPDATE: I sold 2,000 @ $49.25.
Special Emergency Update: I'm Retiring/Elections Complete
As I feel strongly that my departure will mark a mediocre, yet inspiring period for the blogosphere, I feel a short history is in order.
When I was first hired, in February or early March, I enjoyed the privilege of being the first guest blogger ever offered the generous rewards associated with a tenure at this site. I quickly brought to it some chart-chomping goodness (more?) and errors and miscalculations. Sadly, when I took a weekend off, I was promptly shitcanned. I should note that I was replaced by Ducati. Oh, the irony!
I did not receive the benefit of election.
Later, perhaps six weeks or so, I was finally given benefit of election, although I had not blogged here since my original termination. As you can see, I handily dispatched the other candidates.
Over time, while watching the other guest bloggers come and go, I developed a sixth sense for what the readers of this blog are truly wanting. Recently, this sixth sense lead to me besting the youthful and cool skater-dude Danny, landing the Supreme Weekend Blogger Award, despite me having no film-making skills, and being old and washed-up. Sorry about that Danny.
Well, it is certain that I have presided over a historic time, and am truly deserving of the last 10 days afforded me by Fly. It seems though that I should focus on my own blog, since attendance is dropping rapidly. Furthermore, my wife is coming to hate all that is Fly. She hates competing with anonymous internets men and keyboards. Therefore, I must retire, leaving you in the questionable hands of the next guest blogger.
My time here has been satisfying. I thank you all for reading.
Sunday, August 12, 2007
The Important Matter of Handicap License Plates
I don't know if it's me or the lazy places I visit, but these fucking handicap license plates are everywhere.
The kicker: None of these handicap fuckers are actually disabled. As far as I'm concerned, you better be rolling out of your car or in a full body cast, if you are to don the much coveted handicap license plate.
I know a jerk off who has handicap plates. He's not disabled. He just wants good parking spots, outside of Target or Walmart.
On top of that, these "handicap imposter's," are taking up the prime parking real estate from legitimately disabled people.
In short, if I was a NYC police officer, I'd be pulling over these handicap fuckers, left and right. Then, upon seeing that he/she was not disabled, I'd throw a bag of flour on him/her, then peel off in my handicap plated police mobile.