Friday, September 01, 2006
Greenday: Wake Me Up When September Ends
Closing Comments
Well, the "junior traders" did a great job with the market this week. As a matter of fact, I would vote to keep the senior traders at home watching re-runs of Seinfeld, while the young, smart guys man the trading desks.
Anyway, the market is going up and will likely make new 52 week highs, during September.
Today's gains were spearheaded by Steal (+2.5%), Retail (+1.1%) and Cyclicals (+0.9%).
As for my positions:
Lucky for PALM it bounced today. However, I am not pleased with how the stock is acting.
I sold out CMOS, for a 25% profit.
I sold some of my TUG position, for a 11% profit.
Its also worth noting, my position in PTRY is starting to look good, up almost 6% today.
Finally, I am very close to opening a big new position. I like the action in AKAM and VSTH and will likely buy one or both. I will keep you posted.
As for hedging:
I cannot pull the trigger on any shorts, until the SOX hits 460. I don't know why, but it is stuck in my head and won't go away.
Considering the SOX fell 1% today, I feel many semi's can be the beneficiaries of idle cash (not mine!), once the expert traders get off their lazy asses and come back to work next week.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
SUMX, WRSP, VSNT, HAYZ, INGR, HRSH, EGLS, VLNC, ALNY, CCUR, TAG, KRY, AD, THE, SBS, BLT, PDE, SDA, PTRY, OFI, WBD, JJSF, TSTY, DENN, CHB, REV, EXM, RAIL, USEG, GSF, PLLL, SNP, PGS, ALCO, END, EPEX, RIG, GSX, TGA, ARD, CNR, GMXR, MXC, SWN, SFY, HAWK, TIV, DOIG, DO, ATW, NEU, OTD, AVR, BBG, TIE, ATI, GGB, AAUK, RTI, STLD, BMY, CELG, TARO, ABC, VRTX, AMLN, CUTR, SVA, WGAT, TGLO, ARTG, CMGI, REDE, AMZN, IIJI, GROW, INCX, WZEN, ITRA, JUPM, WBMD, CNTF, ZNH, ATCO, COSN, LORL, GIGM, AKAM, SILC, HLIT, AANI, VSTH, MOSS, AEOS, MWRK, BBA, APN, TRID, WIND, DGIT, RHAT, HILL, VIGN, IRSN, SWKS, PAY, IMX, IVAC, ISON, ANAD, ACTS, KOMG, WDC, ITCD, TNE, VG, RCCC, VIP, IFON, WPTE, MKTX, THI, PGTI, GM, LABL and SBS.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
PGWC, PRLS, LIPD, TRCA, DYAX, DXCM, GNTA, SVI, KFX, NTE, TWB, VCI, ID, KWD, HVT, SIR, FTE, LEND, FRN, NATH, PZZI, COSI, CHCI, PEC, DRYS, IOC, KFX, PDRT, FXEN, STP, ICOC, HOKU, BDSI, ARTW, GPRE, INCY, CERS, HRT, NBIX, ACAD, GNBT, EWEB, GOAM, RNWK, NCTY, SDAY, OCNW, STLW, VRSO, AVNX, CAMP, LPTH, FTGX, GGBM, CTRN, TWTR, ESST, GNSS, NVDA, TTWO, MWY, OVTI, SLAB, BRCM, MSCC, IDTI, SMTC, TIVO, WFR, CCOI, NPSI, NOIZ, BWTR, CLAY, CREL, CTCM and NGS.
Anyway, the market is going up and will likely make new 52 week highs, during September.
Today's gains were spearheaded by Steal (+2.5%), Retail (+1.1%) and Cyclicals (+0.9%).
As for my positions:
Lucky for PALM it bounced today. However, I am not pleased with how the stock is acting.
I sold out CMOS, for a 25% profit.
I sold some of my TUG position, for a 11% profit.
Its also worth noting, my position in PTRY is starting to look good, up almost 6% today.
Finally, I am very close to opening a big new position. I like the action in AKAM and VSTH and will likely buy one or both. I will keep you posted.
As for hedging:
I cannot pull the trigger on any shorts, until the SOX hits 460. I don't know why, but it is stuck in my head and won't go away.
Considering the SOX fell 1% today, I feel many semi's can be the beneficiaries of idle cash (not mine!), once the expert traders get off their lazy asses and come back to work next week.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
SUMX, WRSP, VSNT, HAYZ, INGR, HRSH, EGLS, VLNC, ALNY, CCUR, TAG, KRY, AD, THE, SBS, BLT, PDE, SDA, PTRY, OFI, WBD, JJSF, TSTY, DENN, CHB, REV, EXM, RAIL, USEG, GSF, PLLL, SNP, PGS, ALCO, END, EPEX, RIG, GSX, TGA, ARD, CNR, GMXR, MXC, SWN, SFY, HAWK, TIV, DOIG, DO, ATW, NEU, OTD, AVR, BBG, TIE, ATI, GGB, AAUK, RTI, STLD, BMY, CELG, TARO, ABC, VRTX, AMLN, CUTR, SVA, WGAT, TGLO, ARTG, CMGI, REDE, AMZN, IIJI, GROW, INCX, WZEN, ITRA, JUPM, WBMD, CNTF, ZNH, ATCO, COSN, LORL, GIGM, AKAM, SILC, HLIT, AANI, VSTH, MOSS, AEOS, MWRK, BBA, APN, TRID, WIND, DGIT, RHAT, HILL, VIGN, IRSN, SWKS, PAY, IMX, IVAC, ISON, ANAD, ACTS, KOMG, WDC, ITCD, TNE, VG, RCCC, VIP, IFON, WPTE, MKTX, THI, PGTI, GM, LABL and SBS.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
PGWC, PRLS, LIPD, TRCA, DYAX, DXCM, GNTA, SVI, KFX, NTE, TWB, VCI, ID, KWD, HVT, SIR, FTE, LEND, FRN, NATH, PZZI, COSI, CHCI, PEC, DRYS, IOC, KFX, PDRT, FXEN, STP, ICOC, HOKU, BDSI, ARTW, GPRE, INCY, CERS, HRT, NBIX, ACAD, GNBT, EWEB, GOAM, RNWK, NCTY, SDAY, OCNW, STLW, VRSO, AVNX, CAMP, LPTH, FTGX, GGBM, CTRN, TWTR, ESST, GNSS, NVDA, TTWO, MWY, OVTI, SLAB, BRCM, MSCC, IDTI, SMTC, TIVO, WFR, CCOI, NPSI, NOIZ, BWTR, CLAY, CREL, CTCM and NGS.
Fly Sell: CMOS
I sold 30,000 CMOS @ $2.61.
Fly Sell: TUG
I sold 10,000 shares of TUG, between $24.55-24.73.
Hot Stock: AKAM
via Briefing.com:
So, how can you profit from the increasing demand for bandwidth, as video demand on the internet explodes (YouTube)?
Answer:
Limelight Networks.
The only problem: Limelight is NOT publicy traded, yet.
One thing is certain, the CDN market is on fire. AKAM is the leader and should do well. However, if you are looking for a little more risk/reward; take a look at competitor VSTH. I believe SVVS still has a few chips in the game as well.
Also, remember Xcelera?
Pretty much dead now: XLACF.
Xcelera owns 99% of Mirror Image, competitor of AKAM.
And, finally, I have a short list of companies that are providing services to Limelight Networks.
They are:
MRVC, AVCI, FDRY, ADBE, RNWK, EQIX and GLBC
Some of Limelight's customers include: YouTube, MySpace.com, enough said.
Akamai Tech says benefitting from more music and videos online- Bloomberg (39.90 +0.70) : Bloomberg is also reporting the CEO says most growth will be organic, says handling economic downturn would be 'no problem', CEO sees demand rise as broadband used more.
So, how can you profit from the increasing demand for bandwidth, as video demand on the internet explodes (YouTube)?
Answer:
Limelight Networks.
The only problem: Limelight is NOT publicy traded, yet.
One thing is certain, the CDN market is on fire. AKAM is the leader and should do well. However, if you are looking for a little more risk/reward; take a look at competitor VSTH. I believe SVVS still has a few chips in the game as well.
Also, remember Xcelera?
Pretty much dead now: XLACF.
Xcelera owns 99% of Mirror Image, competitor of AKAM.
And, finally, I have a short list of companies that are providing services to Limelight Networks.
They are:
MRVC, AVCI, FDRY, ADBE, RNWK, EQIX and GLBC
Some of Limelight's customers include: YouTube, MySpace.com, enough said.
Sector Spotlight: Biotech
So, its been about a week since I put up the "Fly Survey" and, so far, 63% of you are bullish.
Contrarian indicator?
We will see over the next few weeks.
Today, the market looks good. Albeit, the "junior traders" are manning the multi-billion dollar trading desks-- foolishly bidding up prices. Nonetheless, I think the market is poised to go higher.
One sector that I avoid like the plague, but has been steadily trending higher, is the biotech's. Generally, I do not invest in biotech because of the ridiculous, Vegas- style, risk associated with having to get drugs approved by the FDA. However, I know an uptrend when I see one. So, I will focus a little time on re-educating myself on the sector.
The following biotech stocks are showing some mojo:
SVA +6.2%
CELG +3.4%
VRTX +2.8%
YMI +2.3%
IVGN +1.8%
AMLN +1.8%
BIIB +1.3%
AOB +1.3%
OSIP +1.1%
ICOS +1%
AMGN +1%
ONXX +1%
NOTE: Many energy related stocks are up today, despite weakening of the underlying commodities. I would take this opportunity to sell. I feel the sector could get cheaper.
Contrarian indicator?
We will see over the next few weeks.
Today, the market looks good. Albeit, the "junior traders" are manning the multi-billion dollar trading desks-- foolishly bidding up prices. Nonetheless, I think the market is poised to go higher.
One sector that I avoid like the plague, but has been steadily trending higher, is the biotech's. Generally, I do not invest in biotech because of the ridiculous, Vegas- style, risk associated with having to get drugs approved by the FDA. However, I know an uptrend when I see one. So, I will focus a little time on re-educating myself on the sector.
The following biotech stocks are showing some mojo:
SVA +6.2%
CELG +3.4%
VRTX +2.8%
YMI +2.3%
IVGN +1.8%
AMLN +1.8%
BIIB +1.3%
AOB +1.3%
OSIP +1.1%
ICOS +1%
AMGN +1%
ONXX +1%
NOTE: Many energy related stocks are up today, despite weakening of the underlying commodities. I would take this opportunity to sell. I feel the sector could get cheaper.
Thursday, August 31, 2006
Buju Banton: Untold Stories
Closing Comments
Today was a non-event. We saw more of the same upward movement in heavily shorted stocks, like MFLX.
As for me, I have just about had it with PALM. If the stock cannot show me something within 2 week prior to its scheduled earnings, I may have to cut my losses.
Reason:
Although I feel the stock is dirt cheap, letting a small loss become big is a cardinal sin-- in my book.
So, the month of August has ended with all major indices doing quite well. Don't expect the same type of melancholy trading in September. I will be extremely vigiliant in protecting my profits and may go from bull to bear at any minute.
I am fickle like that.
Bottom line: Keep a close eye on the Transports and SOX. Should those sectors falter, put some protective hedges up. Also, get ready for some damn important economic data tomorrow.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
ITG, FACT, NKZ-WT, TWPG, PSBI, CYTR, ZVUE, GMTC, IGTE, BNP, DIO, PLM, CLG, ANX, MGN, GRZ, BTH, GLG, WWE, NCS, SLW, MDG, HEI, CDE, DCP, SVU, PTRY, COSI, VCO, CHB, CHCI, TARR, JOE, TEX, FLIR, FWLT, PEC, REV, CVTI, TOPT, TR, JOYG, BUCY, SYNM, CCJ, CFK, END, GMXR, OTD, ARTW, RTK, AG, ANDE, TMY, TIV, FXEN, IIIN, PCU, YPF, DK, CRIS, ARIA, GTOP, ISIS, MAXY, CERS, NMTI, TRCA, NBIX, BSML, BDMS, VSTA, HYTM, VICL, GOAM, MIVA, CKCM, EDGR, EXPE, DIET, SFE, TOMO, PAAS, HL, KGC, AUY, MAMA, INCX, WWWW, CHKP, CAT, ATCO, HLIT, SILC, MWRK, JWN, WTSLA, AEOS, CC, BONT, NIS, SEAC, CBZ, IRSN, ATE, OTIV, NVEC, TIVO, IMX, IVAC, SYNA, MFLX, HIMX, DRAM STEC, NZT, VG, CTLM, NDAQ, DE, CREL, EICU, DCP, CPX, REST and CLAY.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
PGWC, GNTA, LTXX, PARL, MEH, DAR, AD, GG, VCI, TIF, AMX, VOL, JDSA, HANS, FIZ, PNRA, ACLI, IPII, QLTY, BQI, GGR, SHI, MXC, GSX, ICOC, FTO, FPP, ACH, CELG, MEK, NTMD, EMIS, MED, SIGA, NVAX, STMP, TZOO, WGAT, RATE, CMGI, GMKT, JDSU, FNSR, CIEN, MRVC, AVNX, AFOP, BKHM, EXFO, AMCC, SCMR, LORL ,TUTS, MSPD, JOSB, DBRN, CTRN, HOTT, GES, FORD, ZUMZ, GNSS, TRID, RHAT, HILL, EMKR, SMTC, VTSS, MSCC, MIPS, PLAY, KLIC, SPSN, UCTT, AUO, HURC, NGPS, MOT, TNE, WTHN, IFON, NSTR and DXPE.
As for me, I have just about had it with PALM. If the stock cannot show me something within 2 week prior to its scheduled earnings, I may have to cut my losses.
Reason:
Although I feel the stock is dirt cheap, letting a small loss become big is a cardinal sin-- in my book.
So, the month of August has ended with all major indices doing quite well. Don't expect the same type of melancholy trading in September. I will be extremely vigiliant in protecting my profits and may go from bull to bear at any minute.
I am fickle like that.
Bottom line: Keep a close eye on the Transports and SOX. Should those sectors falter, put some protective hedges up. Also, get ready for some damn important economic data tomorrow.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
ITG, FACT, NKZ-WT, TWPG, PSBI, CYTR, ZVUE, GMTC, IGTE, BNP, DIO, PLM, CLG, ANX, MGN, GRZ, BTH, GLG, WWE, NCS, SLW, MDG, HEI, CDE, DCP, SVU, PTRY, COSI, VCO, CHB, CHCI, TARR, JOE, TEX, FLIR, FWLT, PEC, REV, CVTI, TOPT, TR, JOYG, BUCY, SYNM, CCJ, CFK, END, GMXR, OTD, ARTW, RTK, AG, ANDE, TMY, TIV, FXEN, IIIN, PCU, YPF, DK, CRIS, ARIA, GTOP, ISIS, MAXY, CERS, NMTI, TRCA, NBIX, BSML, BDMS, VSTA, HYTM, VICL, GOAM, MIVA, CKCM, EDGR, EXPE, DIET, SFE, TOMO, PAAS, HL, KGC, AUY, MAMA, INCX, WWWW, CHKP, CAT, ATCO, HLIT, SILC, MWRK, JWN, WTSLA, AEOS, CC, BONT, NIS, SEAC, CBZ, IRSN, ATE, OTIV, NVEC, TIVO, IMX, IVAC, SYNA, MFLX, HIMX, DRAM STEC, NZT, VG, CTLM, NDAQ, DE, CREL, EICU, DCP, CPX, REST and CLAY.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
PGWC, GNTA, LTXX, PARL, MEH, DAR, AD, GG, VCI, TIF, AMX, VOL, JDSA, HANS, FIZ, PNRA, ACLI, IPII, QLTY, BQI, GGR, SHI, MXC, GSX, ICOC, FTO, FPP, ACH, CELG, MEK, NTMD, EMIS, MED, SIGA, NVAX, STMP, TZOO, WGAT, RATE, CMGI, GMKT, JDSU, FNSR, CIEN, MRVC, AVNX, AFOP, BKHM, EXFO, AMCC, SCMR, LORL ,TUTS, MSPD, JOSB, DBRN, CTRN, HOTT, GES, FORD, ZUMZ, GNSS, TRID, RHAT, HILL, EMKR, SMTC, VTSS, MSCC, MIPS, PLAY, KLIC, SPSN, UCTT, AUO, HURC, NGPS, MOT, TNE, WTHN, IFON, NSTR and DXPE.
Fly Sell: NUAN
I sold 5,000 NUAN, between $7.87-7.90.
Position Updates: TUG
The trading in TUG has been very suspect. Meaning, it should not be going up everyday, outperforming its peers.
The only thing that holds me back from saying: "News must be pending," is the low volume.
Nonetheless, I have almost 1 million dollars wrapped up in it, at lower prices.
No complaints here : )
The only thing that holds me back from saying: "News must be pending," is the low volume.
Nonetheless, I have almost 1 million dollars wrapped up in it, at lower prices.
No complaints here : )
Position Updates: PALM
Something to keep in mind, while watching PALM imitate paint drying on a wall:
Investor Mark Nelson wants PALM to sellout to RIMM, AAPL or HPQ. He owns, through 13-d filings, 12.8% of the company.
And, Geneva based hedge fund Sagio Investments, have repeatedly called for a sale of the company-- if they (PALM management) cannot get their act together.
Sagio owns 6.3% of PALM.
Together, Nelson and Sagio own nearly 20% of PALM. My guess, they will not sit back and watch their investment in PALM whither away.
Investor Mark Nelson wants PALM to sellout to RIMM, AAPL or HPQ. He owns, through 13-d filings, 12.8% of the company.
And, Geneva based hedge fund Sagio Investments, have repeatedly called for a sale of the company-- if they (PALM management) cannot get their act together.
Sagio owns 6.3% of PALM.
Together, Nelson and Sagio own nearly 20% of PALM. My guess, they will not sit back and watch their investment in PALM whither away.
Position Updates: NUAN
September Seasonality
In the market, seasonality is a huge part of being at the right place at the right time. Some stocks outperform others, during certain months, for a variety of reasons. Instead of over analysing the seasonality factor, I have thousands of stocks screened for years up versus down and the percentage gain-- during the target month.
For example:
Did you know the best time to own JP Morgan (JPM) is in May?
The stock has gone up 25 of 33 years in May, posting a 4.1% gain. That's a 75% probablilty.
So, you are probably wondering if a system so simple really works. Well, in July I was short YHOO @ around 33-ish because the stock had been down 8 of 11 years in July, posting a -1.8% return (which is skewed because in 1997 it was up 60%). Consequently, the stock fell out of bed on an earnings miss and I covered my short around 26-ish.
The system is NOT perfect, but it certainly helps to identify potential shortfalls or in many cases it allows me to get in ahead of investment bank upgrades.
They (investment banks) are very much aware of seasonality factors.
So, here is a short list of potential winners forSeptember:
(years up/years down) (% gain)
BXS: 15-5: 2.7%
SYMC: 12-5: 2%
CTSH: 6-2: 2.9%
WIT: 4-0: 9%
CREAF: 10-4: 5.7%
QCOM: 9-5: 6%
JDSU: 9-3: 5.5%
AMZN: 7-2: 14.6% (best month)
ELNK: 7-3: 10.6%
YHOO: 7-3: 12%
UNH: 14-6: 4.3%
IDXX: 12-3: 5.8%
HMA: 11-4: 6.5%
GILD: 10-4: 6%
CAH: 14-6: 2.3%
GSK: 4-0: 5.6%
ESRX: 11-3: 7.7%
SEPR: 10-4: 9%
MYGN: 7-3: 12%
ONXX: 7-3: 13%
SBUX: 11-3: 3%
HRS: 15-5: 2%
GVA: 13-3: 4.9%
ECA: 4-1: 12%
GMRK: 7-2: 7.5%
CPE: 9-2: 15%
PTEN: 7-1: 17%
GG: 10-3: 10%
VIP: 4-0: 8%
If anyone would like a stock screened for seasonality, leave a message in the comments section.
For example:
Did you know the best time to own JP Morgan (JPM) is in May?
The stock has gone up 25 of 33 years in May, posting a 4.1% gain. That's a 75% probablilty.
So, you are probably wondering if a system so simple really works. Well, in July I was short YHOO @ around 33-ish because the stock had been down 8 of 11 years in July, posting a -1.8% return (which is skewed because in 1997 it was up 60%). Consequently, the stock fell out of bed on an earnings miss and I covered my short around 26-ish.
The system is NOT perfect, but it certainly helps to identify potential shortfalls or in many cases it allows me to get in ahead of investment bank upgrades.
They (investment banks) are very much aware of seasonality factors.
So, here is a short list of potential winners forSeptember:
(years up/years down) (% gain)
BXS: 15-5: 2.7%
SYMC: 12-5: 2%
CTSH: 6-2: 2.9%
WIT: 4-0: 9%
CREAF: 10-4: 5.7%
QCOM: 9-5: 6%
JDSU: 9-3: 5.5%
AMZN: 7-2: 14.6% (best month)
ELNK: 7-3: 10.6%
YHOO: 7-3: 12%
UNH: 14-6: 4.3%
IDXX: 12-3: 5.8%
HMA: 11-4: 6.5%
GILD: 10-4: 6%
CAH: 14-6: 2.3%
GSK: 4-0: 5.6%
ESRX: 11-3: 7.7%
SEPR: 10-4: 9%
MYGN: 7-3: 12%
ONXX: 7-3: 13%
SBUX: 11-3: 3%
HRS: 15-5: 2%
GVA: 13-3: 4.9%
ECA: 4-1: 12%
GMRK: 7-2: 7.5%
CPE: 9-2: 15%
PTEN: 7-1: 17%
GG: 10-3: 10%
VIP: 4-0: 8%
If anyone would like a stock screened for seasonality, leave a message in the comments section.
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
Kirk Franklin: Imagine Me
Closing Comments
Chalk up another W for the bulls.
I feel the NASDAQ is undervalued and will overweight tech, until I see parity with the DOW. Also, I like the leadership in the market: Tech (+1.5%) and Brokers (+0.85%).
Regarding my positions:
Although PALM is acting like a turd, I will stick with it and wait for positive results.
CMOS is a gapper. I will be selling around $2.70+
ACLI took a day off.
TUG continues to charge ahead. I expect $27, near term.
TXCC is a dice roll.
NUAN is my short squeeze play.
CHS sucks.
I own about 30 stocks, so it doesn't make sense to talk about them all. However, I will say I like the action in most of them and will not put protective hedges on, until the SOX hits 460. Even that is not written in stone.
Despite PALM taking up space, I am up 23.9% ytd.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
CORS, CLMS, BOT, BRVOE, WVVI, PFGC, SAM, PNRA, CHCI, BXC, LEV, COSI, DENN, PZZI, TBSI, FLIR, CLDN, TUG, SHI, QTWW, FSYS, AVR, TMY, BOOM, IIIN, ENER, BMD, HRT, GTOP, ACAD, LEXG, PRZ, NPSP, NVAX, SVA, CRXL, WGAT, CMGI, LTON, OSTK, EBAY, AMZN, NFLX, TSCM, SIFY, WZEN, QPSA, INCX, CACS, JUPM, BA, CHDX, XING, APAT, TKO, GLBC, NUAN, PWAV, FNSR, ZHNE, GGBM, MRVC, INTV, MSPD, AVCI, NETL, BKRS, PIR, SFP, BKS, URBN, SANYY, GLW, ELX, DGIT, STX, SIGM, BTUI, RMBS, CMOS, EMKR, LRCX, SMTC, SIMG, FORM, IDWK, VTSS, TRID, NSM, BRCM, LSCC, ATHR, PMCS, CSCD, MTSN, RACK, NVT, SIRF, PAY, GTW, CREAF, GRMN, DSS, ANAD, WFR, ITCD, INPC, SBAC, VG, LTBG, WFYW, IFON, TMB, ESPD, CREL, PNSN, EICU, OMRI, VSNT, MCRS, TINY, PCCC, EEEE, AOM, SUF, KAD, SYX, PTC, DY,ITRI, ERJ and BFT.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
LNUX, OLGC, TZOO, HEPH, ADCT, XNL, DDE, SIR, COG, TDW, HANS, HOV, IPII, SWFT, OSG, CHRW, HRS, HOC, NGAS, MRO, BRY, WHQ, GMXR, DRQ, DOIG, PDRT, BTJ, PQ, NUE, AMLN, BSML, NTRI, VSTA, XOM, PCLN, LPTH, PACW, WJCI, BKHM, GES, FD, IWOV, EGLS, ORA, CLEC, CLST, CTLM, EPG, BWTR and DXPE.
I feel the NASDAQ is undervalued and will overweight tech, until I see parity with the DOW. Also, I like the leadership in the market: Tech (+1.5%) and Brokers (+0.85%).
Regarding my positions:
Although PALM is acting like a turd, I will stick with it and wait for positive results.
CMOS is a gapper. I will be selling around $2.70+
ACLI took a day off.
TUG continues to charge ahead. I expect $27, near term.
TXCC is a dice roll.
NUAN is my short squeeze play.
CHS sucks.
I own about 30 stocks, so it doesn't make sense to talk about them all. However, I will say I like the action in most of them and will not put protective hedges on, until the SOX hits 460. Even that is not written in stone.
Despite PALM taking up space, I am up 23.9% ytd.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
CORS, CLMS, BOT, BRVOE, WVVI, PFGC, SAM, PNRA, CHCI, BXC, LEV, COSI, DENN, PZZI, TBSI, FLIR, CLDN, TUG, SHI, QTWW, FSYS, AVR, TMY, BOOM, IIIN, ENER, BMD, HRT, GTOP, ACAD, LEXG, PRZ, NPSP, NVAX, SVA, CRXL, WGAT, CMGI, LTON, OSTK, EBAY, AMZN, NFLX, TSCM, SIFY, WZEN, QPSA, INCX, CACS, JUPM, BA, CHDX, XING, APAT, TKO, GLBC, NUAN, PWAV, FNSR, ZHNE, GGBM, MRVC, INTV, MSPD, AVCI, NETL, BKRS, PIR, SFP, BKS, URBN, SANYY, GLW, ELX, DGIT, STX, SIGM, BTUI, RMBS, CMOS, EMKR, LRCX, SMTC, SIMG, FORM, IDWK, VTSS, TRID, NSM, BRCM, LSCC, ATHR, PMCS, CSCD, MTSN, RACK, NVT, SIRF, PAY, GTW, CREAF, GRMN, DSS, ANAD, WFR, ITCD, INPC, SBAC, VG, LTBG, WFYW, IFON, TMB, ESPD, CREL, PNSN, EICU, OMRI, VSNT, MCRS, TINY, PCCC, EEEE, AOM, SUF, KAD, SYX, PTC, DY,ITRI, ERJ and BFT.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
LNUX, OLGC, TZOO, HEPH, ADCT, XNL, DDE, SIR, COG, TDW, HANS, HOV, IPII, SWFT, OSG, CHRW, HRS, HOC, NGAS, MRO, BRY, WHQ, GMXR, DRQ, DOIG, PDRT, BTJ, PQ, NUE, AMLN, BSML, NTRI, VSTA, XOM, PCLN, LPTH, PACW, WJCI, BKHM, GES, FD, IWOV, EGLS, ORA, CLEC, CLST, CTLM, EPG, BWTR and DXPE.
Position Updates: PALM
via Flyonthewall.com:
Palm-PALM Cingular launch of Blackberry Connect for Treo a strong positive@ Morgan Keegan
Via briefing.com:
PALM- Palm: Cingular launches BlackBerry Connect for Treo 650, positive for Treo sales - Morgan Keegan (15.00 +0.00)
Morgan Keegan notes that Cingular Wireless announced this morning that it has launched
BlackBerry Connect with the Palm Treo 650 for the U.S. mkt. Firm says this is the first launch of BB Connect on the Treo in the U.S. mkt. Firm expects that this will add to the Treo's success in the enterprise market in the U.S., and it is a clear incremental positive for Treo sales going forward as Palm will not only drive incremental new subs to RIMM, but also likely benefit from a certain percentage of the roughly 3 million BlackBerry enterprise subscribers in the U.S. upgrading to Treos.
Palm-PALM Cingular launch of Blackberry Connect for Treo a strong positive@ Morgan Keegan
Via briefing.com:
PALM- Palm: Cingular launches BlackBerry Connect for Treo 650, positive for Treo sales - Morgan Keegan (15.00 +0.00)
Morgan Keegan notes that Cingular Wireless announced this morning that it has launched
BlackBerry Connect with the Palm Treo 650 for the U.S. mkt. Firm says this is the first launch of BB Connect on the Treo in the U.S. mkt. Firm expects that this will add to the Treo's success in the enterprise market in the U.S., and it is a clear incremental positive for Treo sales going forward as Palm will not only drive incremental new subs to RIMM, but also likely benefit from a certain percentage of the roughly 3 million BlackBerry enterprise subscribers in the U.S. upgrading to Treos.
Quick Alert: SOX Resistance
I justed wanted to check my bullish commentary with some caution. The SOX, right now at 451, will likely be subject to extreme overhead resistance at 460.
So, even though times are good now, there is a good chance the SOX and the market may fail to "break out."
At the 460 level, I will likely put protective hedges on some of my positions.
So, even though times are good now, there is a good chance the SOX and the market may fail to "break out."
At the 460 level, I will likely put protective hedges on some of my positions.
Fly Buy: PALM
I bought 5,000 shares of PALM @ $14.78.
Fly Buy: TXCC
I bought 10,000 shares of TXCC @ $1.76
Fly Buy: NUAN
I bought 5,000 shares of NUAN @ $8.06.
Position Updates: TUG
I did not expect this stock to be walked up the way it has over the last 2 weeks. Nonetheless, I remain confident that I will see TUG trade up to $27, near term.
Sector Spotlight: Tech
As energy related stocks get ripped to shreds, tech stocks lift-- as the proceeds from energy related stocks move to tech.
There is some serious rotation taking place, especially in stocks with big short positions. I have seen this game played before. As the rally matures, money managers will purposefully buy stocks with big short positions, with the intention of forcing the sellers to cover-- causing a spike in the stock price. The phrase "short squeeze" applies to stocks like RMBS, OSTK, NVT, VG and many others.
Frankly, I feel this is the beginning phase of putting the squeeze on the shorts. So, its not a terrible idea to position yourself in beaten down, heavily bet against stocks.
Think PALM or whatever else pleases you.
NOTE: One of my new positions CMOS is really bouncing hard off its bottom-- as the selling has finally stopped. I feel it can run to $3.
The following tech stocks have some mojo:
INTV +14%
NVT +11.2%
MIKR +11%
DY +8%
VG +8%
SIGM +7.3%
RMBS +7%
ELX +6.2%
VTSS +6%
NUAN +6%
GGBM +6%
ANAD +5.7%
BTUI +5.4%
IDWK +5.3%
EMKR +5.3%
SIMG +5.2%
INPC +5.2%
FNSR +5.2%
CMOS +5.1%
OSTK +5%
MRVC +4.3%
There is some serious rotation taking place, especially in stocks with big short positions. I have seen this game played before. As the rally matures, money managers will purposefully buy stocks with big short positions, with the intention of forcing the sellers to cover-- causing a spike in the stock price. The phrase "short squeeze" applies to stocks like RMBS, OSTK, NVT, VG and many others.
Frankly, I feel this is the beginning phase of putting the squeeze on the shorts. So, its not a terrible idea to position yourself in beaten down, heavily bet against stocks.
Think PALM or whatever else pleases you.
NOTE: One of my new positions CMOS is really bouncing hard off its bottom-- as the selling has finally stopped. I feel it can run to $3.
The following tech stocks have some mojo:
INTV +14%
NVT +11.2%
MIKR +11%
DY +8%
VG +8%
SIGM +7.3%
RMBS +7%
ELX +6.2%
VTSS +6%
NUAN +6%
GGBM +6%
ANAD +5.7%
BTUI +5.4%
IDWK +5.3%
EMKR +5.3%
SIMG +5.2%
INPC +5.2%
FNSR +5.2%
CMOS +5.1%
OSTK +5%
MRVC +4.3%
Tuesday, August 29, 2006
R. Kelly: Trapped In The Closet (part 2)
Closing Comments
The market continues to creep higher, despite bad economic data, setting up for a showdown between bulls and bears-- after Labor Day.
My convictions are in the bull camp, partly due to the fact that almost everyone I know is bearish.
By the way, please take the "Fly Survey" on the left hand side of the page.
Today's gains were led by the Networkers (1.8%), Metals (1.4%) and the SOX (+1.3%).
As I mentioned earlier, I anticipate future gains in the Networkers. Moreover, I intend on taking a few positions in the sector, for a trade, after I complete some analysis.
NOTE: One of my favorite commodity holdings, ALCO, has been trending higher, due to its heavy concentration in the Florida citrus market. Last time I checked, orange juice contracts were at multi-decade highs. ALCO is a play on citrus, sugar and land--all in Florida. Take a look.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
FCFS, OMEF, BOT, IFC, PPC, CYTR, RSTO, PARL, ARNA, SAFM, MTSC, CMOS, DRTE, GNTA, TAG, ISV, HA, TKO, SIR, RS, BFT, AVR, CTB, ZQK, KCI, GT, FRN, TSN, HRL, SPTN, PNRA, JJSF, PFCB, EAT, IMKTA, HOOK, BOBE, MTRX, CAV, CHCI, CTO, CRFT, AMN, MOVI, BBI, ACLI, TUG, GGR, HOS, SYNM, IOC, TOPT, SHI, BFDE, DECT, WHQ, DOIG, UHCP, BTJ, PDRT, EGY, KFX, ATW, ESLR, ICOC, PQ, CFW, LUFK, SATC, HOKU, MEK, STLD, ACH, BOOM, CRIS, BOL, OMI, VPHM, DRRX, STEM, AGIX, PGNX, KERX, GERN, ASTM, CERS, MEDX, INCY, SNTS, HGSI, MYOG, THLD, TRCA, ACAD, VSTA, NVAX, AVAN, HEB, PPHM, LTON, ENTU, EBAY, ALOY, ARTG, NILE, WSSI, EWEB, CHINA, FLWS, CKCM, NTES, TMWD, SDAY, CAAS, LPTH, RITT, PACW, ZHNE, AFOP, FNSR, SFNT, AIRT, ANTP, XXIA, FBST, SONS, TUTS, NTGR, WJCI, OCNW, TRBM, FDRY, MSPD, BBA, CTRN, SFP, BAMM, PIR, EZPW, BOOT, FORD, KCP, NIS, ZRAN, NVDA, ESST, VIGN, CPCI, MANH, THQI, CRYP, JDAS, IRSN, IMOS, MU, SIGM, SLAB, IBIS, TRID, RMBS, SWKS, AUDC, HURC, GTW, OVEN, VOXX, IOTN, PLXT, NEXT, SPSN, DTLK, STEC, DSS, SNDK, LSI, QLGC, PDSN, ELX, ITCD, GLDN, VIV, TWTC, TLK, VG, TDS, CTEL, KONG, NOIZ, WTHN, VIP, ULCM, TSU, IDCC, SJW, SEED, NYX, EICU, EGLT and DXPE.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
SGXP, KIRK, BKHM, CBAK, TAYD, ZGEN, IIG, SCU, BQI, CUP, ANX, OCN, WCC, SUR, JTX, ZL, NVT, NDE, FHN, RYL, EOG, BSC, FRGB, LEH, SAM, CVTI, CHNR, XNL, JDO, WNR, ALJ, FUEL, DSTI, BSML, NPSP, MBRX, EDGR, STXN, CTDC, BCGI, SILC, ATCO, EXFO, JCG, CREAF, HIMX, LCRD, and ESPD
My convictions are in the bull camp, partly due to the fact that almost everyone I know is bearish.
By the way, please take the "Fly Survey" on the left hand side of the page.
Today's gains were led by the Networkers (1.8%), Metals (1.4%) and the SOX (+1.3%).
As I mentioned earlier, I anticipate future gains in the Networkers. Moreover, I intend on taking a few positions in the sector, for a trade, after I complete some analysis.
NOTE: One of my favorite commodity holdings, ALCO, has been trending higher, due to its heavy concentration in the Florida citrus market. Last time I checked, orange juice contracts were at multi-decade highs. ALCO is a play on citrus, sugar and land--all in Florida. Take a look.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
FCFS, OMEF, BOT, IFC, PPC, CYTR, RSTO, PARL, ARNA, SAFM, MTSC, CMOS, DRTE, GNTA, TAG, ISV, HA, TKO, SIR, RS, BFT, AVR, CTB, ZQK, KCI, GT, FRN, TSN, HRL, SPTN, PNRA, JJSF, PFCB, EAT, IMKTA, HOOK, BOBE, MTRX, CAV, CHCI, CTO, CRFT, AMN, MOVI, BBI, ACLI, TUG, GGR, HOS, SYNM, IOC, TOPT, SHI, BFDE, DECT, WHQ, DOIG, UHCP, BTJ, PDRT, EGY, KFX, ATW, ESLR, ICOC, PQ, CFW, LUFK, SATC, HOKU, MEK, STLD, ACH, BOOM, CRIS, BOL, OMI, VPHM, DRRX, STEM, AGIX, PGNX, KERX, GERN, ASTM, CERS, MEDX, INCY, SNTS, HGSI, MYOG, THLD, TRCA, ACAD, VSTA, NVAX, AVAN, HEB, PPHM, LTON, ENTU, EBAY, ALOY, ARTG, NILE, WSSI, EWEB, CHINA, FLWS, CKCM, NTES, TMWD, SDAY, CAAS, LPTH, RITT, PACW, ZHNE, AFOP, FNSR, SFNT, AIRT, ANTP, XXIA, FBST, SONS, TUTS, NTGR, WJCI, OCNW, TRBM, FDRY, MSPD, BBA, CTRN, SFP, BAMM, PIR, EZPW, BOOT, FORD, KCP, NIS, ZRAN, NVDA, ESST, VIGN, CPCI, MANH, THQI, CRYP, JDAS, IRSN, IMOS, MU, SIGM, SLAB, IBIS, TRID, RMBS, SWKS, AUDC, HURC, GTW, OVEN, VOXX, IOTN, PLXT, NEXT, SPSN, DTLK, STEC, DSS, SNDK, LSI, QLGC, PDSN, ELX, ITCD, GLDN, VIV, TWTC, TLK, VG, TDS, CTEL, KONG, NOIZ, WTHN, VIP, ULCM, TSU, IDCC, SJW, SEED, NYX, EICU, EGLT and DXPE.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
SGXP, KIRK, BKHM, CBAK, TAYD, ZGEN, IIG, SCU, BQI, CUP, ANX, OCN, WCC, SUR, JTX, ZL, NVT, NDE, FHN, RYL, EOG, BSC, FRGB, LEH, SAM, CVTI, CHNR, XNL, JDO, WNR, ALJ, FUEL, DSTI, BSML, NPSP, MBRX, EDGR, STXN, CTDC, BCGI, SILC, ATCO, EXFO, JCG, CREAF, HIMX, LCRD, and ESPD
Position Update: PALM
Finally, PALM has caught a bid, as anticipation of the new Treo release builds. Also, PALM is releasing its Treo in Europe, September 12th.
So, unlike other tech names, PALM has a few catalyst's going for it and I expect the 17.5 million share short position to shrink-- as PALM regains some institutional sponsorship.
In my book, the stock needs to break $15.60 to have a clean breakout.
UPDATE: via Flyonthwall.com:
8/29/06
PALM- believe quarter is looking in-line@Pacific Crest
The firm said that PALM is still not seeing an impact from competition but the firm said that they need to see more of a ramp before there is material upside.
So, unlike other tech names, PALM has a few catalyst's going for it and I expect the 17.5 million share short position to shrink-- as PALM regains some institutional sponsorship.
In my book, the stock needs to break $15.60 to have a clean breakout.
UPDATE: via Flyonthwall.com:
8/29/06
PALM- believe quarter is looking in-line@Pacific Crest
The firm said that PALM is still not seeing an impact from competition but the firm said that they need to see more of a ramp before there is material upside.
Sector Spotlight: Internet
Barring a September market collapse, the internet sector will be my favorite tech sector to buy, up until January.
After spectacular gains in '05, the internet sector has been poleaxed, leaving investors to scratch their heads as their respective brokerage accounts lose by the day.
I always enjoy picking through the rubble, finding discarded gems that will oneday make me look "smart."
So, without further adeiu, here is my 2006 internet stock shopping list:
ALOY, OSTK, NTES, EBAY, VCLK, MFE, STMP, LQDT, QPSA, ENTU, WBSN and TOMO.
NOTE: Currently, I own zero shares of the stocks mentioned above. I am simply laying out my holiday season gameplan for my readers.
After spectacular gains in '05, the internet sector has been poleaxed, leaving investors to scratch their heads as their respective brokerage accounts lose by the day.
I always enjoy picking through the rubble, finding discarded gems that will oneday make me look "smart."
So, without further adeiu, here is my 2006 internet stock shopping list:
ALOY, OSTK, NTES, EBAY, VCLK, MFE, STMP, LQDT, QPSA, ENTU, WBSN and TOMO.
NOTE: Currently, I own zero shares of the stocks mentioned above. I am simply laying out my holiday season gameplan for my readers.
Sector Spotlight: Networkers
Since CSCO posted good quarterly earnings, the networking sector, slowly but surely, has been trending up. Last year, I bought this sector at the bottom and made a killing when it caught fire. Stocks like JDSU, CNXT, FNSR and BWNG all topped out, after going .com crazy to the upside, in late March of '06.
Since then, the sector has been under assault, falling more than 30% from its highs. However, with a good set of numbers from CSCO and AKAM coupled with positive comments from FNSR, EQIX, and AVNX, maybe the sector is set to run again.
Maybe.
My favorites are: EQIX, TLAB, FNSR and AKAM.
The following networking stocks are showing some mojo today:
TERNE +4.3%
AIRT +3.6%
XXIA +3.3%
DVW +2%
FDRY +2%
NOTE: Oil & Natty are getting crushed today, due to the absense of Tropical Storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Let's face it: nobody knows when or where a hurricane is going to hit. To invest in lieu of a potential hurricane knocking supply offline is insane. I like the sector on a pullback and probably will not buy any energy stocks, until new Tropical Storm activity is confirmed or geo-political events cause a stir.
Since then, the sector has been under assault, falling more than 30% from its highs. However, with a good set of numbers from CSCO and AKAM coupled with positive comments from FNSR, EQIX, and AVNX, maybe the sector is set to run again.
Maybe.
My favorites are: EQIX, TLAB, FNSR and AKAM.
The following networking stocks are showing some mojo today:
TERNE +4.3%
AIRT +3.6%
XXIA +3.3%
DVW +2%
FDRY +2%
NOTE: Oil & Natty are getting crushed today, due to the absense of Tropical Storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Let's face it: nobody knows when or where a hurricane is going to hit. To invest in lieu of a potential hurricane knocking supply offline is insane. I like the sector on a pullback and probably will not buy any energy stocks, until new Tropical Storm activity is confirmed or geo-political events cause a stir.
Monday, August 28, 2006
R. Kelly: Trapped in the Closet (part 1)
Closing Comments
It feels good to be back at the turret, especially being up 1.5% on the day. However, I must say, it felt alot better, while on vacation last week, spending some time with the family-- running around like a kid.
Today's action was good. I anticipate the market to leg up from here and possibly make new highs. As you know, I have been a buyer of stocks, as of late, and extremely reluctant to initiate protective hedges or bet against stocks. Whenever I call stock loan to borrow stock, I chicken out and hang up like a prank caller (exaggeration).
For now, I feel most confident in niche electronic names like PALM, MOT, RIMM and BBY.
And, I like the energy stocks on any dip.
For now, enjoy.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
FCFS, NITE, FACT, CFC, COT, JJSF, PFCB, CAV, BECN, LEV, PZZI, GMCR, GI, EPL, OLGR, COSI, IRBT, CLDN, CVTI, QLTY, ODFL, EXM, EXPD, LVS, IOC, DECT, AEZ, DOIG, IPSU, ACH, AOOR, AOB, CTIC, IDNX, ARIA, GTOP, AGIX, CERS, EMIS, MATK, PGNX, MAXY, PDLI, KERX, NMTI, HSP, MED, DADE, SVA, BCRX, MBRX, CORI, TZOO, DSCM, CHINA, ENTU, TFSM, WSSI, SNWL, AMZN, GROW, MAMA, GOOG, MBAY, HAUP, WSPI, NCTY, AVNX, ATCO, BKHM, PCTI, LNOP, LPTH, AFOP, KEYW, EXFO, ZHNE, SONS, DLR, AKAM, PWAV, BWNG, RACK, OCNW, NWK, IKAN, AVCI, CTRN, WTSLA, SFP, MWRK, CBOU, CHRS, FORD, VLCM, TWTR, BBD, NVDA, CONN, EGLS, AMKR, EMKR, WIND, CBZ, TVIA, IWOV, CTSH, MANH, MOSY, OTIV, NVEC, ASTSF, ALTR, MSCC, FSII, ADI, SPSN, SIRF, TRMB, LCRD, ITCD, VIV, BTM, CELL, DECC, NTLI, TMB, UTSI, WTHN, TPC, IVII, APPA, LBIX, PARL, DPII, CNR, BQI, INTC, MIND, ATEC, BWTR, PGTI and CHH.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
ACOR, EWEB, HOKU, BTJ, GRZ, GSS, GTW, SGY, SFN, MIG, CDE, CNC, TTI, GRP, AEM, NKZ-WT, CME, FIZ, BMHC, IPII, NGAS, IFNY, ABLE, GGR, GSF, VLO, TSO, OII, OMNI, RIG, BDCO, HP, DO, WNR, ATW, DK, ACI, PRB, FUEL, BVN, CLF, TARO, RES, LCBM, ACAD, THLD, HYTM, CARN, CPHD, GOAM, WBMD, GMKT, QPSA, SDAY, GNET, PACW, SMTX, TUTS, TKO, GFME, CTIB, NIS, IDWK, ININ, RHAT, PLAY, BTUI, AMD, GEPT, XMSR and TAR
Today's action was good. I anticipate the market to leg up from here and possibly make new highs. As you know, I have been a buyer of stocks, as of late, and extremely reluctant to initiate protective hedges or bet against stocks. Whenever I call stock loan to borrow stock, I chicken out and hang up like a prank caller (exaggeration).
For now, I feel most confident in niche electronic names like PALM, MOT, RIMM and BBY.
And, I like the energy stocks on any dip.
For now, enjoy.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
FCFS, NITE, FACT, CFC, COT, JJSF, PFCB, CAV, BECN, LEV, PZZI, GMCR, GI, EPL, OLGR, COSI, IRBT, CLDN, CVTI, QLTY, ODFL, EXM, EXPD, LVS, IOC, DECT, AEZ, DOIG, IPSU, ACH, AOOR, AOB, CTIC, IDNX, ARIA, GTOP, AGIX, CERS, EMIS, MATK, PGNX, MAXY, PDLI, KERX, NMTI, HSP, MED, DADE, SVA, BCRX, MBRX, CORI, TZOO, DSCM, CHINA, ENTU, TFSM, WSSI, SNWL, AMZN, GROW, MAMA, GOOG, MBAY, HAUP, WSPI, NCTY, AVNX, ATCO, BKHM, PCTI, LNOP, LPTH, AFOP, KEYW, EXFO, ZHNE, SONS, DLR, AKAM, PWAV, BWNG, RACK, OCNW, NWK, IKAN, AVCI, CTRN, WTSLA, SFP, MWRK, CBOU, CHRS, FORD, VLCM, TWTR, BBD, NVDA, CONN, EGLS, AMKR, EMKR, WIND, CBZ, TVIA, IWOV, CTSH, MANH, MOSY, OTIV, NVEC, ASTSF, ALTR, MSCC, FSII, ADI, SPSN, SIRF, TRMB, LCRD, ITCD, VIV, BTM, CELL, DECC, NTLI, TMB, UTSI, WTHN, TPC, IVII, APPA, LBIX, PARL, DPII, CNR, BQI, INTC, MIND, ATEC, BWTR, PGTI and CHH.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
ACOR, EWEB, HOKU, BTJ, GRZ, GSS, GTW, SGY, SFN, MIG, CDE, CNC, TTI, GRP, AEM, NKZ-WT, CME, FIZ, BMHC, IPII, NGAS, IFNY, ABLE, GGR, GSF, VLO, TSO, OII, OMNI, RIG, BDCO, HP, DO, WNR, ATW, DK, ACI, PRB, FUEL, BVN, CLF, TARO, RES, LCBM, ACAD, THLD, HYTM, CARN, CPHD, GOAM, WBMD, GMKT, QPSA, SDAY, GNET, PACW, SMTX, TUTS, TKO, GFME, CTIB, NIS, IDWK, ININ, RHAT, PLAY, BTUI, AMD, GEPT, XMSR and TAR
Fly Buy: PALM
I bought 5,000 PALM @ $14.76.
Fly Buy: TUG
I bought 1,000 TUG @ $23.
Position Update: PALM
Certain tech websites are rumor milling a September 3rd launch of the new Treo. If so, I anticipate PALM to get off its lazy arse and reward its whipsawed investors with a little green.
The action in PALM is typical, prior to a major product launch. Until we get some guidance on unit shipments, anticipate knee-jerk trading action in PALM.
However, with $5 in cash, a $9.50 book value and a 0.95 price to sales ratio-- PALM, by all metrics, is very "cheap." A successful launch will completely and utterly destroy short sellers-- in what I believe can be the mother of all short squeezes.
The action in PALM is typical, prior to a major product launch. Until we get some guidance on unit shipments, anticipate knee-jerk trading action in PALM.
However, with $5 in cash, a $9.50 book value and a 0.95 price to sales ratio-- PALM, by all metrics, is very "cheap." A successful launch will completely and utterly destroy short sellers-- in what I believe can be the mother of all short squeezes.
Fly Buy: ACLI
I bought 2,000 ACLI @ $54.20.
Jog on.
Viz.
Sector Spotlight: Transports
I subscribe to the theory that says where the Transports go, the DOW will soon follow. Therefore, I feel very good about today's action, albeit on light volume, with the Transports up 2%.
Whether its the truckers, shippers or the railroads (I purposely exclude the airlines) they are all up nicely, today.
Bottom line: The health of the Transports instills confidence in money managers to put parked cash to work. I feel this sector (.TRAN) is breaking out; hence, I believe everything but retail is a buy right now. However, economic data due on Friday may derail this rally. Please keep that in mind.
The following Transports are showing some mojo:
CVTI +8%
CLDN +7.8%
PVX +6.8%
ODFL +6.5%
EXM +5%
QLTY +4.9%
JBHT +4.3%
SWFT +4.1%
USAK +4.1%
CHRW +4%
EAGL +4%
ACLI +3.5%
GWR +3.5%
NOTE: Many tech stocks are breaking out today, including RACK (+8.6%) and ANAD (+18.5%). Its also worth noting, a stock that I own, GI, got bought out today by WNR-- for a 14% premium. I feel all the refineries are good buys, especially smaller players, such as: ALJ, DK and HOC.
Whether its the truckers, shippers or the railroads (I purposely exclude the airlines) they are all up nicely, today.
Bottom line: The health of the Transports instills confidence in money managers to put parked cash to work. I feel this sector (.TRAN) is breaking out; hence, I believe everything but retail is a buy right now. However, economic data due on Friday may derail this rally. Please keep that in mind.
The following Transports are showing some mojo:
CVTI +8%
CLDN +7.8%
PVX +6.8%
ODFL +6.5%
EXM +5%
QLTY +4.9%
JBHT +4.3%
SWFT +4.1%
USAK +4.1%
CHRW +4%
EAGL +4%
ACLI +3.5%
GWR +3.5%
NOTE: Many tech stocks are breaking out today, including RACK (+8.6%) and ANAD (+18.5%). Its also worth noting, a stock that I own, GI, got bought out today by WNR-- for a 14% premium. I feel all the refineries are good buys, especially smaller players, such as: ALJ, DK and HOC.
Sunday, August 27, 2006
A Lesson Learned in Red
About a week ago, I alerted the readers of this blog that I was buying 2,000 CHS @ $25.70, because I thought it was "cheap." The problem with my analysis was that I did not take into account upper management at Chico's were (and still are) complete fucking morons-- unable to run a popsicle stand, let alone a major clothing franchise for chicks with money.
Prior to Chico's castration last week, knifing to the $17's, officially "Urban Outfitted," I was shopping at my local mall and stopped by one of their stores. To my surprise, it was completely empty. The store looked nice, the employees were cordial, the merchandise was high-end, but the foot traffic was dead.
Now it is clear to me.
Chico's will continue to suck wind, because the consumer is DEAD. There I said it.
The people who shop at Chico's (chicks with money) are loyal. The only reason for them not to go out shopping is because their husband's have confiscated their debit cards or they are slowing down their insane shopping spree's-- in order to save a little money for a later date.
Bottom line: The economy is slowing and people know it. I will be staying far away from any retailer for quite some time.
The percentage loss in Chico's will represent the largest loss in years for me. However, I will learn from it and try my hardest to make sure it doesn't happen again. That's all I can do-- after such a disaster. Sell and move on.
NOTE: It appears Hurricane Ernesto has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm. My early guess is for a sell off in energy related stocks and commodities. However, Ernesto can easily regain its Hurricane status and blow the tops off the rigs in the GOM. If so, I will be a big buyer of NGAS, NGS, GLBL and BEXP.
Prior to Chico's castration last week, knifing to the $17's, officially "Urban Outfitted," I was shopping at my local mall and stopped by one of their stores. To my surprise, it was completely empty. The store looked nice, the employees were cordial, the merchandise was high-end, but the foot traffic was dead.
Now it is clear to me.
Chico's will continue to suck wind, because the consumer is DEAD. There I said it.
The people who shop at Chico's (chicks with money) are loyal. The only reason for them not to go out shopping is because their husband's have confiscated their debit cards or they are slowing down their insane shopping spree's-- in order to save a little money for a later date.
Bottom line: The economy is slowing and people know it. I will be staying far away from any retailer for quite some time.
The percentage loss in Chico's will represent the largest loss in years for me. However, I will learn from it and try my hardest to make sure it doesn't happen again. That's all I can do-- after such a disaster. Sell and move on.
NOTE: It appears Hurricane Ernesto has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm. My early guess is for a sell off in energy related stocks and commodities. However, Ernesto can easily regain its Hurricane status and blow the tops off the rigs in the GOM. If so, I will be a big buyer of NGAS, NGS, GLBL and BEXP.
