Friday, September 08, 2006

 

Al Pacino: Any Given Sunday Speech



Have a great weekend.

 

Closing Comments

Today's gains, on light volume, did not impress me. Check your charts: Over the last two years, near term tops have occurred during the second week of September. Can it happen again?

In short, next week is pivotal for the markets.

If you are a bull, you have to love the bounce in the Software, Semi's, Internet and even the Homebuilders today.

On the other hand, bears can point to weakness in the Trannies and the collapse of the oils as precursors of a slowing economy.

I bet everyone is wrong and we get more blah (sideways trading action) for another 10 years.

Stockbroker's purgatory-- punishment for the dot com bubble.

As for my holdings:

I was down 2.4% this week-- partly thanks to the fuckers at PALM. At this stage, being up more than 25% for the year, I am trying not to mess up on stupid trades. So, I have started to take on short positions, in an effort to hedge my way to flat.

I covered a lot of my RACK short because I was up around 10%. I just felt like doing it.

As for SIRF, I will be adding to my current short position, until it breaks.

NOTE: To the commenter ("Alpha") who recommended going short VOL on this blog, earlier this week, you rock dude. VOL down more than 15% today!

The following stocks had notable upside moves:

DHIL, PTRY, BKC, PFCB, DRI, RAH, DF, MSSR, IHP, CHCI, DHI, STRS, JOE, TBSI, NL, CRFT, UTIW, ISWI, XNL, STKL, FEEC, MCEL, UHCP, PDRT, CPST, KFX, ICOC, CRIS, FRX, AOB, BOL, GILD, NFLD, DRRX, LCBM, RIGL, EVVV, SNTS, THLD, BSML, NMTI, PRZ, SMBI, DSCO, DSCM, MIVA, DIET, GOAM, EBAY, SOHU, GROW, JUPM, WBSN, VWPT, ONT, PACW, LPTH, CIEN, FTGX, AKAM, ZHNE, ORCT, BGP, DBRN, TGT, JOSB, COH, PVH, BAMM, ANN, NDN, PXLW, WEDX, ADSK, MU, AMD, BTUI, THQI, ATVI, ERTS, CTXS, MVIS, UIS, MFLX, LCRD, STEC, SNDK, CLEC, CTEL, PHI, GRRF, ARDI, TMB, TCN, CTLM, CYCL, IDCC, CPL, MKTX, TWLL, REST, CTCM, ICAD, ABTL, SGXP, CRMH, TWAV, FNET, TPTH, SWHC, HCO, HH, ZTM, RAE, PLM, MEH, CTB, CAE, EFX, FJC, COO, HNT, OEH, SCT, VC, HOTT, MCD, WMT and BKI.

The following stocks had notable downside moves:

SPTN, CMG, FFEX, HOV, CLB, IPII, OSG, NTG, BQI, PLLL, SU, UPL, VLO, TSO, NGAS, XTO, ANR, BRY, BEXP, CAM ,GMXR, AWZ, QTWW, SWN, CRZ, DRQ, EPEX, SII, FDG, NOV, ATW, EGY, PTEN, SLRE, BMD, HOKU, FTO, AOOR, ACI, FPP, HNR, PQ, RRC, DK, GST, ERS, IIIN, CUP, ACAM, NTMD, CERS, CUTR, ACAD, LEXG, VICL, TGLO, EWEB, CNVR, VGZ, AUY, ABX, SA, LTRX, INTV, AIRN, GIGM, APAT, SMDI, ATOC, TIII, ZUMZ, TVIA, LNUX, CTCH, FORM, SLAB, NETL, IMX, GEPT, ACTS, Q, CBB, DDDC, LCCI, TU, MDLK, WTHN, CWCO, LUNA, CLAY, LGTY, AVGN, SHFL, ASHW, PGWC, STRL, NMGC, MRY, KRY, OZN, VOL, AAI, ZQK, NTG, WTI, KWK and CDE.

 

Fly Buy: VSTH

I bought 5,000 shares of VSTH, @9.50.

 

Fly Sell: SIRF

I sold short 10,000 shares of SIRF @ $25.80.

 

Fly Buy: RACK

I covered some of my RACK short, buying 15,000 between $24.90-25.04.

 

Quick Alert: Oil is Cheap, but Breaking Down

The oil stocks are now ridiculously undervalued, based upon traditional PEG ratio valuations.

However, the charts are screaming "sell now, else the margin clerk is gonna clean your clock." Those without margin accounts, please disregard the previous sentence.

I must say, buying the oil stocks on dips like this has worked consistantly for 2 years. So, what's different now?

Well, if the U.S. heads into recession, oil will likely trade down to $40 or lower. Maybe that's why oil is getting its ass kicked, on a daily basis. Recession fears.

However, if you are a believer in the oil story, now may be an opportunistic time to buy cheap stock. With my money, I'll probably wait to see prices stabilize, before getting my feet wet with "black gold."

My watch list includes:

VLO, TSO, HOC, CEO, UPL and DK.

 

Fly Sell: PALM

I sold 15,000 PALM @ $14.62.

 

Position Updates: PALM

I promise, if those fuckers at PALM do something crazy, like sell the company to AAPL, I am going to go apeshit.

Already, the stock is lighting up like a Christmas tree in Italy-- +.50 to $14.80.

I intend on selling the remainder of my position-- out of shear frustration.

I've been PALM-ed.

 

Position Updates: RACK, SIRF

Both RACK and SIRF appear to"buckling under." At this stage, I am aggressively looking to add to my short positions.

NOTE: I am taking a risk since the market has not rolled over yet. Keep that in mind when looking for shorts.

 

Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors

The markets jumped off to a good start, as the dip buyers stepped up to the plate-- bidding up tech stocks. I am seeing strength in the internet stocks, such as: DSCM +6%, JUPM +4%, OSTK +2%, AMZN +1.6% and YHOO +1.3%.

However, as most of you know, I am focusing on the SOX-- in an effort to predict the direction of the overall market.

After early gains in the SOX, it is now succumbing to selling pressure, down 0.3%. I doubt we will see any significant moves today and I feel the market may trade up early next week-- as the 5 year anniversary of 9/11 approaches.

Even though I am somewhat bearish on the markets now, I am always looking for reasons to be wrong. Meaning: I am smart enough to know my opinions are flawed (like everyone else) and it is important to consider all scenario's (best and worst case), when investing.

My biggest losses have always come after I made emotional stands on stocks-- too stubborn to see the signs written all over the wall.

Bottom line: Don't think you are a "guru," no matter how successful you are at investing. We are all just men, susceptible of making grand error's that can ruin our net worth's, reputation and everything else that goes with being a dumbass.

The following semiconductor stocks are showing some mojo:

SIMO +3.6%
MU +2.8%
SIMG +2.1%
SNDK +1.7%
BTUI +1.7%
AMD +1.3%
CHRT +1.3%
SPSN +1%

Thursday, September 07, 2006

 

Drowning Pool: Step Up


 

Closing Comments

WARNING:

Your portfolio's are at risk. The buyers were embarrassed, then walked on by the bears today. The great war of '06 has begun, and like I said earlier, the bloodiest battles will be fought in the SOX.

After the bulls showed swagger, lifting the SOX by 0.6% intra-day, the bears put the proverbial smack down on their plans-- sending the SOX down 0.4% for the day. From that point on, it was all she wrote for the buyers.

Additionally, after the close semi giant NSM disappointed-- sending the stock down more than $1.30.

Conclusion:

We are going lower. Please take preemptive actions.

The following stocks had notable upside moves:

EMBT, GHDX, NVEC, GIGM, TBUS, LOOK, SHOE, WRSP, AVGN, ORCH, VSNT, SRVY, SVA, PLC, CLG, EAR, PPC, SEH, DRC, HOV, CTB, AIQ, TNS, HBI, ARO, AHO, XCO, HAIN, ROX, DF, WCI, SPF, TBSI, UTIW, DRYS, SWFT, TUG, DWSN, IFNY, QTWW, UHCP, ACAM, AMED, MIVA, BVSN, ENTU, SINA, SOHU, LOOK, MAMA, STXN, MIKR, AVCI, GIGM, HLIT, AWRE, AIRT, GOT, CBOU, MWRK, JOSB, TWTR, KLIC, IBIS, ORCL, BITS, GFX, AAPL, AXTI, MFLX, SANZ, TMB, CYCL, TPC, WTHN, RGCO, WPTE, TWLL, and TDG.

The following stocks had notable downside moves:

DHIL, ITG, ISE, NKZ-WT, VPS, FIZ, DIT, WBD, COSI, BECN, MLI, AMN, FWLT, PCR, TEX, RMIX, CVTI, TIN, IVAN, XNL, JOYG, ARD, SYNM, BUCY, AEZ, PDRT, DVSA, BDCO, TMY, NEU, ESLR, BRNC, FUEL, HNR, ENY, CLHB, FCEL, PRB, BMD, NTO, BOOM, GPRE, PEIX, CTIC, COGLE, MATK, NRPH, LCBM, ARIA, BIVN, SHPGY, VMI, NABI, THLD, NBIX, BSX, LEXG, RGEN, BA, WSSI, WGAT, AMZN, NFLX, NCTY, CNVR, WZEN, VGZ, KGC, HL, SA, AU, PAAS, NEM, ABX, IKAN, EGHT, RACK, NWK, WJCI, VSTH, DVW, FNSR, BCGI, TKO, ORCT, GGBM, ATCO, PWAV, LNOP, CIEN, AMCC, EZPW, BKRS, BOOT, PLNR, OTIV, ATHR, VTSS, ISIL, BRCM, PLAY, MOSY, FORM, VIGN, ADSK, RHAT, HILL, RNOW, SPSN, PMCS, PALM, GRMN, AATI, ACTS, BESI, WDC, MDLK, IFON, EPG, EICU, ATEC, EVR, EGLT, CBRX, HITK, JBSS, AZPN, FLOW, CYTR, CRMT, CLN, ISV, GB, SLW, TNT, GFI, HMY, BTU, MFB and TRU.

 

Position Updates: AAPL

I know its never been mentioned, but I own AAPL from the 50's. Being that its up big today and many of you are commenting on it, I thought some info would be helpful.

Via FlyontheWall:

09:41 EDT Most active equity option families in first 10-minutes of Trading:AAPL BRCM TXN NVDA according to Track Data.

09:24 EDT Pre-Market Movers: Top 5 for September 7th 2006
Apple Computer (AAPL) is up +0.7% after Goldman Sachs defended the stock this morning and UBS Investment Bank raised its price target for the stock to $92 from $80, maintaining a Buy.

08:58 EDT Technology: A look at stocks positioned for growth & profit expansion@BERN Bernstein believes the hard disk drive, MP3 player, Internet search, handset and router sectors are all attractive. They highlight CSCO, SAP, AAPL, BRCM, STX, NVDA, ASML and GOOG as stocks well positioned to expand profit margins. They also believe IT services, optical, microprocessors and digital camera sectors are unattractive markets. SLR, FLEX, SYMC, DELL and AMAT are stocks that are considered unattractive by Bernstein.

07:33 EDT Apple-AAPL would continue to be "opportunistic buyers" of the stock-Buy@GSCOGoldman believes the special event on September 12th will refocus attention on iPods into the holiday season and that new flash-based iPods could provide upside in the December quarter.

07:22 EDT Apple Computer-AAPL target raised to $92 from $80, maintain Buy@UBSWUBS's checks suggest strong Mac sales and the broker is excited about potential new products through 2007. Their 2007 estimate goes to $2.70 from $2.65.


 

Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors

The great Bull versus Bear war of 2006 is underway. The choice scene of battle is, of course, the semiconductor sector.

As most of you know, the semi's represent prosperity. For the bears to gain full control of the market, they must break the SOX. It is not a surprise to see the SOX up today, while everything else is falling by the wayside.

The bulls are making a valiant effort, in the semi's, to keep this bull run going.

However, I feel the bulls aren't tenacious enough to beat the bears.

In short, I have turned bearish, near term, on the markets.

The following semiconductor stocks are showing some mojo:

NVEC +11.5%
KLIC +6.1%

ANAD +5.7%

SLAB +4%

SIMG +3.7%

GNSS +3.7%

NVDA +3%

TER +3%

EMKR +2.5%

SNDK +2.5%


NOTE: The Homebuilders and Transports are showing strength too.

 

Fly Sell: RACK

I sold short 1,000 RACK @ $25.42.

 

Fly Sell: SIRF

I sold short 20,000 SIRF, between $26-25.78.

I sold short 5,000 shares of SIRF @ $26.04.

I sold short 5,000 shares of SIRF @ $25.62.

 

Fly Sell: PALM

I sold 175,000 shares of PALM, between $14.06-14.25.

UPDATE:
Herb Greenberg has a few choice words for PALM.

Clarification:

I still own about 20,000 shares of PALM. The reason why I sold it is twofold:

1. I hate warnings and never like to stay in a stock with declining growth.

2. Opportunity cost.

So, PALM may be cheap. But I could care less.

I am done.

 

Get Your Helmets Ready

Its official. The traders who were on vacation last week are fucking assholes. These guys are a mess-- selling every stock in sight.

Meanwhile, just yesterday, I was cruising along in a car, being driven by some guy "Merril," and he just crashed my PALM-mobile into a fucking titanium wall.

Seriously, the market has no legs. Although, I do see signs of life in the SOX, it still has the look and feel of a trap.

My advice: Get your helmets out and prepare for Merril to drive your car through a fucking mine field. Or, you can start selling stocks, preserve recent gains and hedge. Your choice.

NOTE: Please participate in the new "Fly Survey" on the left hand side of the page.

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

 

Hootie And The Blowfish: One Love


 

Closing Comments

Today, the SOX, Homebuilders, Metals, Networkers, Biotech, Transports and Oil stocks were collectively destroyed.

Classic pullback.

The hottest market sectors move up and down like a convoy, shedding any sense of individuality. This, of course, is nothing new-- despite what Cramer's ETF conspiracy theories warn. It amazes me to hear seasoned vets blame hedge funds, ETF's or Bernanke for market declines.

The market goes down when sentiment is negative. Period.

Now, what sways sentiment is another subject. There are so many factors and variables that affect supply and demand that it is utterly foolish to disseminate simplistic explanations for market adjustments.

Nothing is fact, just theory.

So, is the market now going to knife lower, in order to fulfill the annual September drubbing?

Short answer: ? (I don't know)

All we can do is ensure our portfolio's are properly diversified or hedged. And, be smart about taking on new positions.

Try not to be wasteful with cash reserves.

As for my holdings:

PALM was the beneficiary of a positive research note from Merril. Good job Merril.

UPDATE: PALM just warned. Fuck You Merril.

VSTH sold off hard. I intend on buying more if it dives into the low 9's.

ACLI barely sold off. It is in bull mode.

My dice roll TXCC came up snake eyes, down more than 7%. Fuckers.

And, RACK blessed my holdings, knifing more than 6.5% (I am short RACK).

In all, I had a monster day (sorry). My holdings charged ahead by 3%-- putting my ytd returns at 28.3%.

NOTE: The one silver lining in today's trading was the stability in the banks (-0.18%).

The following stocks had notable upside moves:

EXAS, DTLK, PGWC, HAIN, VVUS, STSI, RDCM, CTIC, PZA, PTT, DDD, COR ,OZN, IMX, WEL, DNE, FRN, SLE, BECN, FLWE, LCBM, HYTM, NFLX, ICCA, LOOK, QPSA, ITRA, WWWW, LQDT, JUPM, GM, ONT, TRBM, WJCI, SNR, SMDI, CBOU, OLED, CTCH, DGIT, QSND, OVEN, PALM, COGO, SANZ, PDSN, LCRD, ITCD, TAR, MTE, OMRI and MA.

The following stocks had notable downside moves:

CACS, EPCT, LGBT, GHDX, RBAK, MSGI, KMAG, COOL, ORCH, FNSR, NURO, EGLT, IVAN, AEHR, WLV, SPC, IN, DRL, NKZ-WT, DHIL, CLMS, LAB, CORS, CASY, PNRA, JSDA, PTMK, ABV, COSI, CHB, TARR, SPF, AXR, MTH, LEV, WCI, WLT, HOV, CTX, RYL, BHS, TOA, EME, GVA, EXP, DHI, MHO, BZH, PHM, FLR, KBH, CTO, GCT, RMIX, CLB, JHX, FWLT, ASEI, PCR, TRN, CX, FLR, RIN, BHP, SWFT, GWR, QLTY, ODFL, EXM, DRYS, RAIL, GBX, REV, BBI, MOVI, ISWI, GMR, TK, SYNM, BQI, XNL, JOYG, PLLL, OXY, GEOI, SUN, ENG, VLO, PKD, STO, ABLE, MRO, IMO, EP, SU, COP, ANR, PTR, DWSN, ECA, BRY, GSF, UPL, USU, TSO, WRES, HOC, ATPG, USEY, QTWW, EPEX, DPTR, EOG, WHQ, DVN, GSX, GLBL, CAM, GDP, HAWK, BEXP, SII, FST, OII, BTJ, AMSC, ESLR, BDCO, HES, EAC, PTEN, ENER, ALJ, DK, LUFK, ACI, HNR, STGN, MAXY, BVX, NRPH, NSTK, ARNA, NPSP, AFFX, AVII, INTC, PCLN, TGLO, WSSI, TFSM, MIVA, ARTG, AMZN, WEBX, MCHX, ELNK, CNVR, XING, OCPI, ATCO, TXCC, TUTS, ZHNE, GLBC, TKO, TLAB, HLIT, FTGX, BKHM, LNOP, MRVC, RACK, MIKR, MSPD, AVCI, VSTH, NETL, JDSU, MRVL, BKRS, SCVL, TWTR, EVST, URBN, ZUMZ, CATS, TRID, PXLW, STX, RNOW, CRM, SWKS, TUNE, NVEC, CNXT, EMKR, AMD, ACTG, SLAB, ATHR, BRCM, KLIC, FORM, NVDA, VSEA, PMCS, IVAC, SIRF, BITS, TIVO, GRMN, LPL, NOK, WFR, ANAD, SNDK, SBAC, TWTC, GLDN, VIV, SURW, IDCC, KONG, TSU, AMX, CELL, EICU, VG, DXPE and PEIX



 

Quick Alert: Market Sell-Off Deepens

No chance the market rallies today. If it does go green, I promise to scale the NASDAQ building with only a retarded "Boo-Yah" tee shirt on.

I am looking for shorts.

So far, my watchlist includes:

SIRF, WFR, ANAD, FORM, BWNG, CYMI, GMXR, MSTR, NTAP, ATI and MHK.

If you have any that look good, please leave a comment.

 

Position Updates: PALM

It appears the stock God's do love me.

Thanks Merril!

This is an excerpt from a research note out of Merril Lynch today:

Telecom Equipment-Wireless:

Smartphones: PALM could outperform RIMM near term;
Subject: Earnings Preview

o Palm more interesting than RIM in the near term

The next few weeks could see several new smartphone launches from RIM and Palm. Ahead of those launches and earnings reports, we position Palm as a relatively more interesting play near term compared to RIM, particularly given that both players are leveraged to the same growth driver (smartphones), yet Palm stock is up only 2% vs +31% for RIM and +9% for Nasdaq.

PALM: multiple new product cycles, attractive valuation, potential share buyback

We expect Palm to report an in-line August quarter on US strength offset by European weakness. However, November quarter outlook could positively surprise on the recent launch of Treo 700wx at Sprint and the upcoming launch of the Treo 750v at Vodafone Europe. Potential news flow around the upcoming low-priced Treo could also benefit sentiment. Finally, Palm's outsized cash balance (~35% of current market cap) could prompt a meaningful share buyback, in our opinion. We reiterate our Buy rating and $19 price objective on Palm stock. While competition is increasing, we believe Palm stock, trading at <10x its forward PE ex-cash, well discounts the risks.

RIMM: stock discounts most near term catalysts, although still the best long term play in the smartphone space

We expect RIM to outperform August quarter consensus, with 8700 handset strength at Cingular/T-Mobile and 7100 strength at Verizon, offset by continued weakness at Sprint. We believe RIM could meet or exceed our 689K new subscribers estimate which is at the midpt of RIM's outlook of 670-700K new subs. We also expect strong guidance for the November quarter where we are 2c above consensus on 742K new subs estimate. However, RIM stock appears to mostly discount potential near term catalysts; the 8703 smartphone launch at Verizon and the consumer (8100) handset launch at T-Mobile/Cingular. Longer-term, however, RIM's integrated business model of handset + software + service remains the most defensible way to play the high-growth smartphone.

 

Sector Spotlight: Energy

The market is taking a well deserved breather. Yesterday, I started hedging my longs by going short RACK. Considering it just failed to break its 50 day moving average, I feel betting against RACK, at this juncture, is a good idea.

Also, I strongly suggest staying away from the energy complex-- as the price of oil and natural gas continues to dive.

All the hoopla that preceded this year's hurricane season is just about nil, even though there is a new Tropical Storm in the Atlantic now. Nonetheless, it appears wind shear will keep the fury of mother nature in check. Thank God.

So, in the near term, the only catalyst for the energy sector is Iran and the upcoming winter. In short, I feel the sector will sell-off, until the underlying commodities stabilize. Originally, I suggested to draw a line in the sand at $67 p/b. However, it is possible for oil to temporarily trade below that level. I will keep you posted.

The following energy stocks have absolutely no mojo:

ALJ -6.9%
HOKU -5.5%
VSE -4.7%
DK -4.6%
SYNM -4.5%
SUN -3.6%
NHY -3.4%
WNR -3.3%
OXY -3.3%
PEIX -3.2%
GSX -2.8%
EPEX -2.8%
VLCCF -2.8%
DPTR -2.7%
CAM -2.7%
GDP -2.7%
HES -2.4%

UPL -2.3%

 

Fly Sell: RACK

I sold short 5,000 RACK, between $27.33-27.24.

UPDATE: I shorted 10,000 shares of RACK @ $27.10

UPDATE II: I shorted 1,000 shares of RACK @ $26.51.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

 

Technical Analysis: PALM and many others



Courtesy of AlphaTends

NOTE: If you are not familiar with AlphaTrends, you should bookmark it. It's a great site. Brian Shannon from AlphaTrends gives his opinion on PALM (about 4 minutes into the video). Even though I own PALM, I think Brian may be correct in labeling PALM dead money, for now.

 

Ian Van Dahl: Will I


 

Closing Comments

Although my holdings were up 0.9% today, I felt like I lost money. Today was entirely non-eventful-- as the great battle between the bulls and bears appears to have been postponed, indefinitely.

As for my holdings:

ACLI is kicking ass and taking names.

PALM is starting to feel like a mistake. The opportunity cost is hurting me and I fear their earnings, scheduled on 9/21, may disappoint. I hope I am wrong. Nonetheless, if the stock God's truly love me-- they will give me liquidity at $16.

TUG is doing well. However, I am opting to take profits here, despite the fact it may oneday get bought out above $30.

TXCC is my new dice roll.

VSTH is a new holding that should perform well, as video and music via the internet explodes. Think YouTube. Think Myspace.

UPDATE: For those who want to know more about VSTH, I highly recommend spending an hour listening to some conference calls. Here is the link.

CHS is trying to bounce back. However, at the first sight of $20, I will likely cut my losses.

ERS is boring me to death.

RACK is now butting up on its 50 day moving average. If the market starts to go down, RACK will get buried under a wave of market sell orders. Hence, I shorted the bitch.

The following stocks had notable upside moves:

DHIL, LTS, LEND, FRGB, LEH, LAB, KB, ISE, CLMS, JSDA, PFCB, PNRA, IMKTA, AIC, CBG, CLB, DE, TEX, ACLI, CAT, RIN, DWSN, JOYG, PGS, IFNY, UPL, AG, DVN, DPTR, CNR, OMNI, GSX, FSYS, GDP, SII, RIG, CWEI, CAM, BTJ, AEN, ICOC, ATW, HP, NEU, HES, CUP, TONS, NUE, X, RTI, TIE, ATI, PD, PCU, RTP, FCX, BOOM, CLF, STLD, INSU, FTI, MIND, TARO, CRIS, PGNX, HRT, NSTK, SNTS, MAXY, THLD, MYOG, NTRI, VSTA, CKCM, TGLO, RATE, LTON, BVSN, FLWS, SFE, PCLN, TOMO, GROW, KRY, AUY, SA, WZEN, HAUP, ECLG, WBSN, NCTY, LQDT, NWK, AVCI, IKAN, INTV, MRVL, STLW, RACK, ZNH, CNTF, LNOP, BCGI, FTGX, AMCC, BWNG, AIRT, PCTI, EQIX, HLIT, JNPR, GGBM, TLAB, SHLD, PIR, EZPW, CTIB, TWTR, CACH, ILY, OLED, SEAC, ACS, DGIN, DRIV, NVEC, SIGM, RMBS, AMD, ASTSF, CMOS, AMKR, ATHR, BRCM, SWKS, BTUI, HSR, TRID, FORM, ATE, IMX, COGO, OVEN, AAPL, TIVO, AUDC, CAJ, MFLX, ACTS, VIMC, GLDN, TWTC, TAR, RCCC, SURW, TKC, KONG, VIP, IDCC, ELP, CIG, CLAY, EGLT, DCP, ARCI, WRSP, SIM, IIG, GRZ, PAL, VTS, and GFI.

The following stocks had notable downside moves:

ADLR, GNTA, PGWC, PETS, AEHR, SGXP, MIKR, RBAK, DTLK, ZVXI, NRMX, JDO, TGC, MED, NVH, VSE, LRW, VIA, SIR, KNX, BFF, HSY, WBD, CHCI, LEV, OHB, JOE, CVTI, HOC, XNL, BQI, VLO, EWST, DNE, AVR, NKTR, PRB, FTO, GGY, DK, ALJ, HOKU, LCBM, NTMD, RPRX, ACAD, NBIX, GNBT, MO, EWEB, MIVA, RNWK, GOAM, MNST, ITRA, FORR, MAMA, SMDI, BKHM, AVNX, RBAK, OPTC, SFP, TSCO, LPL, PLNR, SGTL, TGAL, PLXT, IVAC, ITCD, VIV, VG, PNNW, CTCM, BWTR, KOMG and IMCL.

 

Sector Spotlight: Small Caps

One thing I like to monitor is the action in small cap stocks, specifically dogs under $5.

Two reasons:

1. I usually make a ton of money playing small cap orphan's.

2. It is a great indicator of a market top. A harbinger of doom.

However, a "top" can last for quite sometime. But, if there is one thing that I have learned, while losing my hair managing OPM (other peoples money): Small cap, piece of crap stocks gapping higher on no news screams market top. Nevertheless, until we get to the "top," there is plenty of money to be made in discarded has been's.

So, are we there yet?

Short answer: No.

In the meantime, I will try to pick up some of these bow-wows, in an effort to net some easy percentage points.

Here is a short list of some small cap movers:

IMX +25%
KRY +16%
TGLO +16%
CTIB +14%
HAUP +13%
BCON +9.4%
STXN +9%
GRZ +9%
BCGI +8.7%
THLD +8.5%
LTS+ 8%
FTGX +8%
WZEN +6.7%
AIC +5.7%
CMOS +5.7%
CUP +5.5%
AMCC +5.2%
BVSN +5%
VRSO +4.4%
JAVO +4%
GTOP +4%
LEXG +4%
IFNY +3.5%
SWKS +2.6%

NOTE: All the stocks mentioned above are big time losers. Play at your own risk. Currently, I am rolling the dice on one dog, TXCC.


 

Fly Sell: RACK

I sold short 5,000 RACK, between $28.15-28.20.

 

Quick Alert: Feel Good Rally

Geez, EVERYTHING is up 2% today. Today's tape has the look and feel of panic buying. Even though the broader indices are hardly up, certain sectors (namely tech, metals) are-on- fire!

My sense: this type of speculation continues, but be very careful of a reversal. If and when the market reverses, the losses could be staggering.

Until then, trade away young man, trade away.

NOTE: Gold is great.

 

Fly Buy: VSTH

I bought 8,000 VSTH, between $10.11-10.17.

 

Fly Buy: TXCC

I bought 10,000 TXCC @ $1.74.

UPDATE: I bought 5,000 TXCC @ $1.74.

 

Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors

Before I decided to buy PALM, there was one stock that I felt was ridiculously cheap and strongly pondered buying it in size. Her name was: RMBS.

Alert: Rant forthcoming

C*cksucker, Motherf*cker!

Damn you RMBS and all the profits you throw off to lucky shareholders. Granted, if you owned it at $40, you, being the unlucky shareholder that you are, probably would like to see the CEO on a pike or the CFO in silver bracelets on his way to share a cell with Schillinger in Oz. But, for the lucky or smart few who were determined to buy it between $10-11, just three weeks ago, RMBS is God.

That's Wall Street. Fortunes are made and lost without need of explanation or rationale.

Fuck.

In case you were wondering what I thought about today's trading action, I haven't quite figured it out yet. So far, so good.

As for the semi's: Some of them really rock and some really don't rock.

For example, the CMOS I sold on Friday is up another 10% today, while stocks like SMDI, GNSS and MRVL stay in the doghouse.

Its a stock pickers market people. Do your homework.

The following semi's are showing some mojo:

CMOS +11%
NVEC +9.3%
ESST +8.8%
RMBS +8.5%
ASTSF +8.3%
MFLX +5.5%
SIGM +4%
IDWK +4%
AMKR +3.4%
AMD +3%

NOTE: I could be wrong, but I feel the energy sector may be ripe to fall.

 

Fly Sell: TUG

I sold 1,000 TUG @ $24.73.

Monday, September 04, 2006

 

Dave Chapelle: Rick James Skit



One of the funniest skits ever.

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DISCLAIMER: This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any FINRA broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.