Fly on WallStreet

I must say, this week was entirely uneventful, as I shedded another 1.5%. There is no clear direction, only volatility.

I fucked up, missing out on the deal of a lifetime, by not buying NEWC and LEND at their lows. Stubbornly, I am sticking to my guns and will live or die by them-- until I get bored and change my mind.

Yesterday, Cramer said to stay away from Tech, then suggested to go long a bunch of Tech stocks. That was fucking gay. And, the Fast Money guys were thinking about eating a giant roach. That was disgustingly fucktarded.

My point: As much as I criticize CNBC, I can't stop watching it. It's like crack via the airwaves. I know it's bad for me and is responsible for lowering my IQ, but I still turn it on--like a fucking Washington D.C. heroin user.

Finally, because of underperformance, I will no longer refer to myself in the third person. Sadly, I will talk to you, the local asshat, as an equal. However, should my positions start moving up again, I will take the oatmeal filled salad bowl off my head-- and tell all of you to go fuck yourselves-- in true internet gangster format.

Until then, have a nice weekend.

Keep talking shit about DIVX and this will happen to you.

Here we go again. The "wheel barrow" dollar is losing value, again. Because of the weakening dollar, commodities should go higher, including Gold, Silver, Oil, etc.

So, for now, the play is to own FXE, FXY, USO, GLD, SLV and grains via DBA.

As for today's trading:

Tom Brown is on fire! Recent gains in LEND and NEWC make me feel like apologizing to him-- for declaring him an "Asshat." But then I remembered, he is an asshat anyway, with or without big gains in LEND or NEWC. So, no apology.

If you haven't realized by now, I am long the fat guy eating chicken wings, while guzzling large quantities of Monster-- who suddenly looks down at his disgusting body and decided to have more food delivered to his doorstep. "Diet food."

Because of this "philosophy," I am long BWLD, HANS, NTRI and ADY.

Aside from the fat fuckers, I like one Trannie: ACLI. They deliver dry cargo, such as fertilizers, salt, ores, ferro alloys, gypsum, and cement. Additionally, they transport, oil, chemicals and other liquid commodities. Think ethanol.

One of my new holdings is DIVX. Despite its weak share price, I feel DIVX will be a major winner in 2007. If you surf the web, you will come across DIVX software everywhere. Great play.

If you want more in depth analysis on my stocks, fuck off. I am too busy to mess around with retards on the internets. As you know, I have more important things to do, such as flicking quarters at white collar business men, from the back of my limousine.

Finally, it's fucking snowing in NYC today. I mean, just yesterday it was 70 degrees and balmy. Now I have to deal with this snow shit. If Mother Nature were sitting across the room from me, I'd have my "Metal Analyst" punch her head off.

More on this later.

NOTE: MVIS looks good here.

Without a doubt, the CEO of HAL deserves one of my Asshat trophies--for taking his oil-bitches to Dubai from Texas.

I mean, without getting into the political ramifications, is he fucking retarded? If the Democrats take the Presidency, they will skin this man alive. As far as I am concerned, he is Lord Supreme, Commander of the Asshat Legions--destroyer of the GOP marketing campaign.

Basically, Davey boy is a tax evading-fucktarded-oiltard. I spit on Davey boy.

Using his logic, all U.S. corporations should just move the fuck out of the country, because shit is cheaper elsewhere.

I'll have you know, I was thinking about moving my family to Zimbabwe, in order to avoid NYC's sales tax. Then, my wife found out, and cracked a ceramic salad bowl over my head.

Enjoy the middle east King HAL.

I was out all day attending a private institutional meeting, hosted by MVIS. You know, the type of meeting that excludes the asshat individual investor (you).

I don't want to come across like a "pumper" or "MVIS whore," but I am excited.

Alex made a very clinical presentation and was impressive. He did not over-hype his story and addressed tough questions with poise. In short, I am going to buy a lot more stock.

In my opinion, the company is very close to inking a major cell phone deal. Moreover, such a deal will be the first of many positive press releases, regarding strategic alliances.

Furthermore, I am convinced the stock price will trade above $5.30 for 20 days, effectively enabling the company to call in their warrants-- which will net the company $35 million dollars.

Hence, the cash issue will be resolved.

Finally, I am prepared to purchase additional shares up to $4.50. Best case scenario, the company will surprise everyone with a big announcement, within 2 months.

Everything I stated above is my own opinion and was not confirmed by Microvision.

Full Disclosure: I am heavily long the stock and warrants.

Anyone selling short CENX should take notice. This guy is going to punch your head off.

The market is going higher today. Why even fight it?

If you are short, like some asshats who post on this retarded blog, be sure to enjoy having your eyebrows punched off your face--for the remainder of the day.

It appears WEBX caught a bid from CSCO (nice call Howard). Ultimately, the internets is going to be consolidated. My guess, within two years, stocks like VCLK, AQNT, OMTR, MCHX, etc, will be gone-- due to buy outs. Furthermore, the buying will probably be done by bullshit companies, like YHOO or AMZN. Frankly, I do not know why the Fast Money fuckers are so bullish on YHOO. Do they even surf the web? I mean, really, YHOO blows hard. The only name worth the paper it's printed on, in search, is GOOG. Fuck the rest.

Speaking of buyouts, ICE is bidding for BOT. Crazy exchange fuckers. Without a doubt, NYX, NDAQ and ISE are buys.

Aside from the internets, the chemical stocks are on fire. Oh, my friend with the LEND calls, just made a fucking killing-- up big again.

Finally, sometime today, BBND is coming public. I really like the company and will probably buy some stock, within the first month of trading.

NOTE: I will be away for most of the afternoon, attending a business meeting. More on this later.

A friend of mine bought a boatload of LEND April 2.50 calls, yesterday. The QFW DZ's closed up $1.75-- to $3.90. Fucking lucky bastard.

He anticipates selling them tomorrow. Personally, I think he is fucking nuts and is playing with "shitfire."

Today was a short term bottom. I cannot predict long term, because my crystal ball does not allow it. However, after such a key reversal in the indices today, I am sure the buyers will come to work tomorrow, balls in hand.

As for me, I shedded another .5% today, mainly due to MVIS.

As I indicated earlier, CENX is a fucking buy. Within the year, I expect to wake up and read about AL or AA bidding for the company. Until then, I will continue adding to my position and throw large desk lamps at my trader/servant-- so that he knows to get me better executions.

Finally, I anticpate the Asian markets will explode to the upside tonight. My favorite way to play the Orient is via NKZ', NKI', KB, SFTBF, FXI, FMCN, ADY and EWY.

Tom Brown is on fucking fire, today.

And, I am eating a fucking giant bowl of oatmeal. Coincidence?

I think not.

My technician tells me to buy with two hands, should the market go green. Throughout his ramblings, I heard "double bottom."

I bought 1,500 NYX @ $81.94.

Disclaimer: If you buy NYX because of this post, your wife will take out a "sub-prime" loan, behind your back. And, you may lose money.

This guy is so robotic, I think he may be made of metal. Nonetheless, aside from the steroids, he has a great work ethic.

I bought 25,000 MVIS @3.22.

UPDATE: I bought 5,000 @ $3.20

Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, you may find a cockroach in your Raisin Bran. And, you may lose money.

Sorry for the late post. I was busy talking to clients, while consuming large quantities of Dunkin' Donuts coffee (concealed in a Starbucks cup).

Typically, I get 3-4 hours sleep a night. I don't like sleeping and feel it's for lazy goat-fuckers. People don't need to sleep 8-10 hours per night. That's fucktarded!

Last night, while throwing darts at Steve Jobs' face, I was very upset to have been tricked by Mother Market, having sold most of my inverse ETF's-- prior to the market decline. Also, I made a commitment to kick as many old people down empty elevator shafts, as possible, during the next leg up in the market.

However, taking a look at the market today, it appears those old fuckers will be rolling over "The Fly," with their fucking wheel chairs.

So far, MVIS has ripped off one of my arms today-- and is attempting to rip out my tongue next. I don't get it. I guess "investors" were hoping they would announce a fucking Motorola deal, during the conference call. Are you fuckers retarded or something?

Anyway, as usual, I'll be buying this dip.

The market sucks today. The sellers have taken control and are spinning the asshole dip buyer on a fucking pike. However, on this dip, I would take advantage, buying EQIX, CENX, BWLD and DIVX.

Finally, it's worth noting, the Trannies and Retailers are rolling over--like fat fuckers on a beach. I don't like the tone of this market and will probably spend the rest of my day at the movie theater, watching 300 for a 3rd time.

More on this later.

I just finished listening to the MVIS conference call-- and it went exactly as expected. Right now, MVIS is a concept stock. They have no real revenues to speak of-- just plans.

MVIS is like a biotech stock, with a billion dollar cancer drug in phase III trials. Furthermore, in order to solidify their distribution channels, they need to sign an agreement with a top cell phone manufacturer.

Everyone I know, who owns the stock, is clamoring for such a deal. Moreover, many people who are familiar with the MVIS story feel such a deal will offer an ideal exit price-- considering it will likely boost the share price.

I disagree. With my money, I view MVIS as a long term investment, with surreal return on investment possibilities. On the other hand, if they fail to act quickly, on establishing partnerships for the PicoP, and secure proper financing--the stock may become dead money.

In short, I am not betting the house on MVIS-- or any other stock for that matter. However, I do feel Microvision's share price offers exceptional value, taking into account the potential market for their products.

NOTE: The moderator on the MVIS conference call was a fucktarded asshat.

After a day like this, what more can I add?

Sooner or later, the market will fuck everyone. Today, I lost 1.5%, as everything under the sun, except ADY and my short ATHR, was obliterated.

Unfortunately, I have dug in bullish and face plenty of downside exposure. I do have some inverse ETF's left, but not much.

Bottom line: No market will break me. I will change with the trends and adjust, when needed.

Stubbornly, I feel there is limited downside left. However, I will keep an open mind to any and all scenario's.

Off to the MVIS call.

If you think your day was bad, think about poor Tom Brown's.

After it is all said and done, the Fed will bail out the sub-prime fuckers with rate cuts. However, until that happens, the Financials will continue to be sold-- like cheap whores in Vegas.

Despite my impeccably bad timing on selling inverse ETF's, I do not believe the market is going much lower.

However, in the event my "calculator brain" is wrong, owning TLT, FXY and DXD are good hedges.

In short, I am taking a few upper cuts to the groin today-- deservedly so. But, as always, I will figure this asshattery out-- soon enough.

Last week's Asshat of the Week award, Tom Brown, is being eliminated from the world of money management today. Frankly, I do not like to see anyone do poorly, but he kind of had this coming.

Instead of betting on deadbeats with fucked up loans, he should have gone with the bigger money centers. Anyway, it's all hindsight now.

Nevertheless, according to my calculations, Tom is down a staggering 6% today! His fund is down, more than 24% YTD, with over 200 million in losses, so far.

Basically, his fund, Second Curve Capital, is likely to be liquidated. If not, I'd be fucking shocked and would offer to eat my tie, in an offering of humility.

If liquidated, his positions will be hit hard.

Here is a list of his bigger positions:

RNR

CCRT

FMD

FAC

SBK

PRS

MRH

COF

LEND

ECPG

NTBK

PRAA

Don't fuck with his metals.

I am wearing so much cologne today, frankly, it is offensive.

More on this later.

The second "holocaust of chickens" aka March madness is coming. On that news, I want to be long BWLD. If you hatfuckers didn't learn your lesson during the first holocaust (Super Bowl)-- wise up.

UPDATE: Despite the general weakness in the indices today, I want to buy CENX on all dips. With that being said, certain goat-fuckers are attempting to sell short, in an effort to counter my "calculator brain" functionality. Maybe not today, but sometime soon, I will be eating that goat-fuckers liver.

Developing...

Right out the gates, Mother Market is hacking away at my market positions. The market gaps lower and ATHR caught an upgrade. I fucking hate when that happens.

I mean, what is the fucking odds of such events occurring? Just yesterday, I sold most of my inverse ETF's-- and held my ATHR and BRCM shorts. What do I get for my market prowess? A fucking sharp knife in the ear is what I get.

Max pain on ATHR has been reached. I will be covering my short and moving on to another painful endeavor.

As for today's trading:

Today, everything is being taken down by the hinges, excluding oil. Despite the Tom Brown Mortgage disaster, I feel the market is a buy-- right now. I understand the ramifications of LEND, NEW and the entire sub-prime market-- falling by the wayside. However, it's worth noting, "The Fly" has never really counted on the poor fuckers of America--to help out the economy.

I mean, those fuckers are too busy ordering coffee at Dunkin' Donuts, than to pay their mortgage bills on time. Hey, it's not my fault people are fucktarded and can't afford stuff. Those sub-prime fuckers ought to get on the internets, like me, and make an extra $100 per month-- by blogging until their fingers fall off.

Today, Eric "The Oil Barrel" Bolling must be happy, because oil is up. Moreover, oil stocks look pretty damn good. If you are not in Energy related stocks, now is a great time to position in, ahead of the driving season.

Right here, I like VLO, SU, GMRK, GMXR and alternative energy play NEU. Plus, before you know it, the hurricane season is upon us, wiping out key natty and oil facilities.

Good times.

Finally, on this dip, I will be buying MVIS, DIVX and CENX.

Clearly, I am not fucking around.

Rank 1303, up 14.18%

Aside from the "oil-bitches" at HAL moving their HQ to Dubai, today was uneventful. Currently, I am up a little more than 8%, YTD. Moreover, my appetite for risk is, once again, abundant.

Therefore, I have instructed my servant/trader to remove my fucking hedges. Frankly, I am a little disappointed with his executions and may have to fine him $10,000-- per bad print. More on this later.

Today, I put some money to work. That's right, I am getting aggressive on a quadruple witching week. Fuck you if you find that scary.

Basically, I spit on the bears and their weak sell tickets. I want to own, in size, DIVX, MVIS, HANS, BWLD, CENX, AAPL, NTRI and EQIX throughout 2007.

DIVX is a new addition to my holdings. Being a big fan of piracy, I come across DIVX software all the time. It is big and getting bigger. I envision the fucktards from ADBE, or other fucktards, buying them-- at a ridiculous premium.

Finally, MVIS is due to report "earnings" tomorrow. I do not feel the stock will move higher, because of tomorrow's conference call. However, I do feel the stock will get into the $4 price range, following their scheduled road trip, in the weeks to come.

Tom Brown is getting his ass kicked.

Anywhere between 25-55k was allocated in the above names.

Disclaimer: If you buy any of the stocks mentioned above, because of this post, the next time you go fishing, Poseidon may punish you. And, you may lose money.

I sold 5,000 DXD @ $59.76.

I sold 5,000 MZZ @ $59.10.

I sold 1,200 SSG @ $68.80

Before you read this post, go visit Woodshedder. Once again, he did a fine job blogging here this weekend. For his trouble, I have e-mailed him an "illegal Mexican" to clean up his p.c. Trust me, he fucking deserves it.

First off, I would like to declare the movie 300 to be the best fucking film-- since Gladiator. Please, don't leave any comments saying "but, it is historically inaccurate and unfair to the Persians." See, "The Fly" doesn't bother getting all worked up over trivial things, such as truth, when it comes to the movies he watches. I am all about believing everything communicated thru the T.V. or the big screen-- then acting upon my new found "knowledge."

For example: After watching 300, I had the sudden urge to join the Spartan army and fucking sack the ancient Persian city of Tehran. Unfortunately, I later learned there is no Spartan army. However, it's worth noting, I'd still like to see the ancient Perisan city of Tehran burn to a cinder, all due to 300.

Over the weekend, after wanting to sack Persia, I read Howards post on Halliburton and how disgusting and "smelly" they are for moving to Dubai. Now, don't get me wrong, if I saw the CEO of HAL enrobed in a fucking ball of fire, I wouldn't spit nor piss on him to douse the flames. As a matter of fact, I'd probably throw a book of matches or barrel of oil at him-- whichever is readily available. However, I am not mad at them for moving to Dubai. Fuck them, it's just another company.

As for today's trading:

This is the type of market that forces the bears to cover their shorts. It is completely and utterly fucktarded. The market should be down 1% today, instead it is flat. Clearly the advantage has, once again, shifted to the buyers court.

I like the action in the Networkers. I see LMRA is on fucking fire, up 30%. By the way, MVIS owns 1.75 million shares of LMRA. Furthermore, I expect MVIS will sell their block, sometime soon. In addition to LMRA, PWAV, AKAM, HLIT, NETL and DIVX look great.

Aside from CENX, my favorite short term trade has to be DIVX. The stock is cheap and poised to move higher.

NOTE: Last week's asshat, Tom Brown, is getting punched in the cock today, via LEND and other "bank stocks."

Fans and followers of William O’Neil and Investor’s Business Daily have undoubtedly heard of the “Follow-Through Day” (FTD). O'Neil advises that market bottoms can be recognized when the downtrend stops and one of the market indexes is up about 1.7% or more on the 4th - 11th day of the rally. (The Successful Investor, p.9). Basically, a FTD gives a green light to buy after a market correction.

Because Friday, March 9th marks the 5 year, 5 month anniversary of the current bull market and the indexes are currently in a correctional period, I thought it might be interesting to see how accurate the FTD has been in signaling the end of a market correction.

William O’Neil has advocated using up to 2.0%, depending on volume and market liquidity, to determine when a FTD has occurred. This study will also use 2.0%, as the author believes that the figure produces fewer false signals. Also, the operational definition for “market correction” for our purposes is “A period of time when the index ceases to make higher highs, and makes at least one lower low.” When this condition is met, we will consider the market eligible to have a FTD.

On the first chart, we can see the huge moves starting on October 10, 2002, which signaled the beginning of the current bull market. The Nasdaq then corrects, makes a lower low, and becomes eligible for a FTD. On February 14th, a FTD attempt is made. The signal turns out to be false as the low for the FTD is undercut three days later. Exactly one month from the previous attempt, March 14th sees a gain of 4.8%, just one day after making a new lower low. This FTD launches a 10 month series of higher highs and higher lows, for a gain of over 1000 points.




The next chart shows October 2003-October 2004. The Nasdaq has rolled over and begins making a series of lower lows. On March 25, a 3.02% FTD occurs, but fails just a month later. Again in May, a FTD occurs, yet fails in July. Finally, on August 18, another FTD occurs. This one does not give a false signal, and the market runs until January 1st, 2005.







The third chart shows the Nasdaq make a lower low in March. After making a bottom in late April, the market continues to rally through July, never gaining even 1.7% or more in a day to qualify for a FTD. If one would have waited for a FTD during this run, his money would have stayed on the sidelines.








The 4th chart shows the Nasdaq coming down from its July highs, making a new lower low and then a 2.07% FTD in October. This run was good for 7 months and ~350 points. May 2006 brought another correction. In June and July, there are follow-through days, but both fail. The market comes off of its July lows, and rallies, without a FTD. This infamous rally lasts until the end of February 2007 without a correction.

The current correctional phase has not yet witnessed a FTD.



Conclusions.

False FTDs during study period = 5
Valid FTDs during study period = 3
Rallies started without a FTD = 2

Considering these statistics, one stands a good chance of buying a false rally, or missing the beginning of a rally entirely if he chooses to adhere to the Follow-Through Day concept as defined here and popularized by O’Neil and IBD. Limitations of this study are that it covers only a 5-year bull market period, and the author's operational definition of a market correction may differ from O'Neil's.