Saturday, September 29, 2007
SPECIAL EMERGENCY ALERT: Long Live Willie Randolph
Tomorrow, the Mets will put the "hammer of death" down on the Marlins. Plus, the fucking Phillies will lose, of course.
NOTE: The above clip is how "The Fly" performs job interviews.
Friday, September 28, 2007
SPECIAL EMERGENCY MESSAGE FOR WILLIE RANDOLPH
The Doors- LA Woman
NOTE: How about a fucking win, NY Mets, huh? At least think about it.
The quarter was great. Let's see what Monday brings, then make some early predictions.
At a glance, I think VMI, GLF and BWLD will bounce. And, I will sacrifice several three legged "lucky" goats this weekend, in order to send shares of LAZ significantly lower.
Fly Buy: XFML
Disclaimer: If you buy XFML because of this post, then "Joe" is God. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: FTK
Disclaimer: If you buy FTK because of this post, a piano will fall on your goat. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: SRS
Disclaimer: If you buy SRS because of this post, the Government will let aliens abduct you. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: LNN
"But, women not equal to man"
Sector Spotlight: Networkers
As of late, there haven't been any big deals announced. My guess, should the equity and credit markets remain stable, expect to see significant deal flow by Thanksgiving.
Taking another wild fucking guess, it might occur in the beaten down retail sector. Potential targets are: M, AEO, HD and KSS.
As for the networkers:
Getting this sector going is a must win for the bulls. Today, there is momentum in VRAZ, CRNT, ANTP, LNOP, LORL, STAR and NT, while BBND gets it fucking big stupid band "mushroom clouded."
In short, today is a sleeper. I anticipate lackluster action, as all of the fucktards who manage billions of dollars window dress for their end of quarter performance statements.
Keep this in mind, when buying stocks at their 52 week highs.
Sold Out Position Update: AZZ
So fucking glad I sold my final 2,000 shares the other day. So fucking happy to have "gotten my money back," selling a chunk @ $30.
This is a fucked up way to start a day.
Unsolicited Late Night Thought
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Slick Rick: Mona Lisa
It's obvious, as well as evident, someone is interested in "getting their share of the billions being made on the internet." They are fucking the shorts and making lots of money doing it. Life doesn't get better.
Late in the day, VMI shit the shower. In my opinion, whenever VMI trades mid to low 80's, it's a screaming buy. As you know, all stocks that are in the 80's go to $120.
I caught a break with BWLD, being added to the S&P 600. Sometimes people with money get lucky, a lot.
Finally, the market has a complacent feel to it. I sense frothiness, coupled with short seller panic. Nonetheless, I will keep my LAZ short and SRS long, while nibbling at VMC, BWLD and iiG.
Off to buy expensive stuff.
UPDATE: Shocker: 16:01 FMCN sees FY07 revs $440-450 mln vs $409.65 mln Reuters consensus, prior guidance $390-400 mln
"Go to Work"
THE MOTHER OF ALL CHINESE STOCK LISTS
Maybe you can find a lottery ticket in here, somewhere.
AICAF, AIRYY, CHCG, CAGC, CAAS, CPCAY, CHBT, CCBX, CDS, CEDA, CHINA, CHGS, CHRI, CHHL, CHLN, CIWT, CIVY, CNOA, CYD, CHNWQ, CPHI, CREG, CHNR, NCTY, NTES, SNDA, JASO, SOLF, STP, CHL, CN, CHU, CHA, CHND, CTRP, CSCT, CHSH, CCGY, CHFI, CFSG, CHME, CNEH, CNUV, KUN, XFML, JADE, BIDU, SOHU, SINA, NWD, NINE, ATV, EFUT, EDU, EJ, PCNTF, CXTI, CHNG, HIHO, SWRAY, HNP, HRAY, TCM, ACTS, BNSO, CPSL, CNTF, CTDC, SORL, SEED, FFHL, CSUN, FMCN, CLWT, ADY, JOBS, QXM, PACT, XING, YTEC, CEA, ZNH, SDTH, CHCG, SHA, NINE, YZC, PTR, CEO, SNP, ACH, CBAK, ILVL, SHI, AOB, LFC, SOBM, SYUT, BJGP, ZHNP, FEED, LONG, LTON, WX, MR, SSRX, SCR, SPRD, SNEN, PWRD, GDG, CIHHF, BKEAY, MHJ, HMIN, CLPHY, TSL, JRJC and HQS.
Let me know if I'm missing any.
UPDATE: Chinese Quote list. Thanks to "Jeff."
Sector Spotlight: Food and Beverage
It's in my blood, fuckface.
Naturally, every once in awhile, "The Fly" loses money on purpose, just to know what it feels like to be a loser. But, for the most part, the bull is my bitch.
Thus far, the market looks strong. I really like the action in the food and beverage sector. I believe the recent success of HANS and CMG will draw money into the sector.
Right now, KKD, JSDA, SAM, SFD, FMX and CSG look good. Possible long shots in the sector include: REED, FIZZ, ADY, TXRH, DENN, COSI and SMBL.
As you know, my favorite is BWLD.
Finally, as the Chinese melt up continues, I warn you against holding these names too long. However, there are really good companies, unlike the solar shit, that are relatively inexpensive, such as CN (position of mine) or ADY.
Right now, ERTS, SNDK, BWLD, iiG and NTRI are my favorite destinations for new money.
Fly Buy: iiG
Disclaimer: If you buy iiG because of this post, you will die poor. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: ERTS
Disclaimer: If you buy ERTS because of this post, your brand new plasma will fall off the wall. And, you may lose money.
What to buy on a dollar rebound
Anyway, one of the casualties of the plummeting dollar has been Indian outsource companies. Oh the irony.
Basically, the Indian rupee has gained 9% versus the U.S dollar, year to date, essentially raping the outsourcing companies of their gross profit margins. Currently, the rupee is at a 9 year high versus the dollar.
The companies most impacted are CTSH, INFY, SAY and WIT.
With regards to CTSH, for every 1% move up in the rupee, the company loses 0.5% in gross margins. INFY has some hedges in place, and only lose 0.2% for every 1% move up in the rupee.
In short, the underlying businesses are operating flawlessly. Should the dollar strengthen, expect a surge in the above names. Naturally, should the dollar continue to get kicked in the nuts, you might want to avoid these names, especially when they are due to report earnings.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Quick Alert: "The Fly" is no longer a Met Fan
I hate them (Mets).
Fuck the Mets and their junior varsity pitching staff and may Willie Randolph's home fall into the Atlantic Ocean, via freak tornado aka "twister of death."
Frank Sinatra - Fly Me to the Moon
And, what do you give back?
You doubt my every move, as if my "time machine" was without plutonium or my "calculator brain" was missing its solar panel.
Look you, you're not qualified to second guess BWLD, MVIS, LLNW, ERTS or even SBUX. While you're home sleeping and dreaming about fluffy white sheep, "The Fly" is working hard, like Clubber Lang, finding new ideas-- getting an edge.
Investing is not for everyone. Sometimes the best investment a fucktard can make is acknowledging his limitations. Buy a mutual fund. Eat a sandwich.
As for today's trading:
The bears were beaten like little bitches, as everything melted up. There was massive short covering, particularly in stocks with big short positions.
With my money, I will sell slowly into this run, while adding to some of my fall-winter plays, like BWLD, SBUX, JCG and NTRI.
For the day, I was up 1.9%, with gains in MVIS, HANS, FMCN, LZ, NKI-WT, AEO, LNN, LLNW, GME and RIMM.
I still have a decent short position in LAZ-- and long in SRS. By the way, SRS is double inverse IYR, in case you didn't know.
Buffett (Rambo) versus BSC Shorts (Dudes in Helicopter)
Buffett buying BSC?
Buffett has done lost his mind.
Kill the bears.
Cramer and Ducati Nailed VG
The stocks fair value is $00.00, naturally.
Now, who's going to jail and when?
Fire everyone at VG to the man.
Quick Alert: "The Fly" is better than you.
UPDATE: "Joe" is better than you, even "The Fly."
"You've been afraid all of your life"
Fly Buy's: ERTS, BWLD, SBUX
Disclaimer: If you buy any of the above stocks because of this post, your only son will become a WWE wrestler. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Chinese Solar Burrito's
Everyone is feeling jubilant these days, as money gets tossed around like paper plates. Just a few weeks ago, everyone was ready to jump off a cliff, thanks in large part to a 9% dip in the indices.
I look at RIMM trading north of $100, post 3:1 split, and think about my cost basis of $18 and ponder: Is anyone better than me?
However, unlike many of you, I realize this shit has to end. So, just in case, I've been selling down positions, in order to be in a position to buy your margins calls, the next time we correct.
Now, there are some stocks "The Fly" does not sell, such as GME, AAPL, RIMM, MVIS and GILD. For the most part, I'm up anywhere between 2-10 times my original investment, on the above names.
As you know, "The Fly" is much smarter than you. Don't try this at home. You're liable to blow yourself up.
Just yesterday, I was tempted to buy 10,000 SOLF @ $13.50. As a matter of fact, I had the order in, but pulled it. Obviously, seeing it trade up to $15.74 today angers me, but who cares?
Buying SOLF would have violated everything "The Fly" stands for, which varies from day to day. In short, if I'm going to have my legs snapped in half, I'd rather it happen with the baseball bat that I know, instead of some stupid solar powered leg snapping machine. If you get my drift.
Looking at today's tape, I wouldn't be surprised to see some weakness. With my money, I like iiG, BWLD and short LAZ, right here.
NOTE: Please take the "Fly Survey." Are you bullish or bearish?
Fly Sell: EJ
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Nine Inch Nails: Hurt
"The Fly" doesn't drink martini's, especially ones with olives in them. Fuck you, if you like them. I don't.
Nothing irritates "The Fly" more than looking at some guy sipping a fucking triangle glass, with a sliced apple floating on top of its contents.
I drink bourbon or beer. That's it fuck face.
As for the market:
What do you think this is some sort of free service, where you come here, make money, then go? Fuck that.
"The Fly" doesn't feel like giving you (internet voters) "future news" or even old news.
Right now, I'm all about eating large pastrami sandwiches, with mustard, while gingerly sipping on a Monster M-80 juice.
Plus anyway, I'm making too much money, than to fuck around with you retards on the internets.
In closing, the market will go up and down. Either way, I'll be there, with my fucking net, to catch all the money flying around.
Off to my steroid infested gym.
"It's Our Army"
Fly Sell: AZZ
Late Day Thought
I swear the internet is wearing thin on me.
Fly Buy: BWLD
Disclaimer: If you buy BWLD because of this post, your water heater will leak. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Solar Stocks
Look you, I can't tell the difference between a solar panel or a trash can. All I know is the share prices have "gone nuclear" and momentum fools are all over them.
If I had to bet on one, maybe I'd pick SPWR. However, I'm not picking one, so fuck SPWR.
Here is my watch list. Feel free to add a name or give reasons for their ownership, or don't. Either scenario is acceptable.
AKNS, CPSL, PEFF, CSUN, CTDC, ASTI, ASTIZ, SOLF, CSIQ, SPIR, LDK, CBAK, XSNX, BCON, JASO, ESLR, YGE, TSL, DLSL, FSLR, SPWR, WFR, AXTI, PWER, STP and GRSR.
Fly Sell: FMCN
Position Update: MVIS
Anyway, like I said before, fuck around and lose your house, trying to short my stocks.
Now for MVIS:
I'm up over 150%, over the last year, buying MVIS (click here for proof). While it's true, bitching about MVIS @ $4.70 is almost comical, considering where it was-- one year ago.
Look, I own a truckload of MVIS. Normally, I would never buy so much of a speculative stock; but I'm comfortable with it.
My confidence in the stock is supported by its strong management team, coupled with its superior technology.
In my opinion, MVIS will be inking many agreements, with both handset makers and tier one automotive OEM's, within the foreseeable future. Eventually, there will be large institutional interest in the stock, which will send it on its way to double digits.
Also, I believe, during the upcoming CES conference, MVIS will unveil a next generation Picop that will excite people. I feel it makes sense for MOT to jointly present with MVIS at CES. Hopefully, they will not let their lawyers get in the way of good business sense.
Finally, I believe MVIS's technology will be in handsets by 2009. Considering the market potential, I feel the stock will be multiples higher than where it trades now.
What can go wrong?
Supply chain constraints.
However, should the company have an issue with its supply chain, it will likely be temporary-- no more than a few months.
In short, I view MVIS as a breakout stock in a period of dormancy, waiting for a reason to bust loose. In my opinion, by January of 2008, MVIS shareholders will get their reason.
Position Update: FMCN
|07:56||FMCN Focus Media files delayed Form 20-F; co completed previously disclosed investigation into allegations (48.50 )|
|"As a result of the Audit Committee investigation of allegations raised by attorneys representing an anonymous investor, we failed to timely file our 2006 annual report on Form 20-F. The unnamed investor, described as currently holding a short position in our ADSs, alleged that: (a) Everease, a company previously run by Focus Media's founder and CEO, Jason Jiang, is a related party as a result of ongoing ties between Everease and Mr. Jiang and members of Mr. Jiang's family; and (b) Focus Media was making undisclosed rebate payments to a third-party advertising agency through Everease in order to inflate Focus Media's reported financial performance... On September 25, 2007, the Audit Committee completed its previously disclosed investigation into allegations made by U.S. Counsel to an investor described as holding a short position in our stock. The results of the investigation have been discussed with our independent Registered Public Accounting firm. Based upon its review of the evidence, the Audit Committee concluded that nothing had come to its attention - apart from the initial allegations that gave rise to the investigation - that would cause the Audit Committee to believe that we made undisclosed rebate payments to a third party advertising agency through another advertising agency, namely, Everease. We have informed the investigators that we have concluded that Everease is a related party based upon information developed during the investigation. Based upon its review of the evidence, the Audit Committee concurs with our conclusion that Everease should be deemed a related party."|
UPDATE: Attached is a special video message to FMCN shorts.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Johnny Cash - Hurt
Well, listen up fuck face, that's not how this game is played. We may continue to get punched between the eyebrows, now that everyone is bullish.
With my money, I've been raising lots of cash, while making surgical buys, like BWLD.
Also, if you are paying attention, I'm banking some serious coin in iiG, despite your lack of support.
In closing, don't be a dick; hedge your little portfolio's with a few shorts or inverse ETF's. Also, it's worth noting, MVIS is entirely gay. However, it's also worth noting, whenever I get the urge to rip its face off, the stock bottoms. Just know, right now, I want to peel its fucking face off-- like a Mr. potato head.
Top pick: Short LAZ.
UPDATE: 16:04 IIG Imergent: Steven G. Mihaylo discloses 9.0% stake in SC 13G filing (22.30 +0.87)
The internet never lies.
Late Day Thought
UPDATE: Die LAZ die.
Fly Buy: BWLD
Disclaimer: If you buy BWLD because of this post, your local butcher will run out of 2 1/2 inch rib eyes. And, you may lose money.
Herb Greenberg, the HANS basher, wants his bike back
NOTE: He asked a HANS long.
Sector Spotlight: Food and Beverage
As for BWLD, it's football time. The street doesn't understand the BWLD story, yet. They are not like other high growth restaurant plays. BWLD is cyclical. Meaning: their restaurants are busiest during football season and when college students are back on campus, considering the amount of restaurants that are located near colleges. The best time to be long BWLD is during Super Bowl season. Aside from the bowl, there are other catalysts, such as: World Series, NCAA Tourney and College Football.
Bottom line: "The Fly" is buying this dip and making BWLD a top 10 position.
As for today's trading:
I'm enjoying incredible action in most of my positions. Right now, HANS, FMCN, FTK, BWLD, LLNW, FXI, NYX, EJ, AAPL and RIMM are up more than 3%; yet the market is hardly up.
Also, it looks like NTRI is ready to bounce. Without a doubt, this is a great entry point for NTRI, ahead of fat man season (thanksgiving).
You have to love the "fuck you, you're dead shorts" tone of this market. It's like hell in a box for them.