Friday, December 22, 2006
Frank Sinatra: Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas
Today was a light volume/bullshit day-- so I won't overhype the losses. But, the across the board take down is troubling and testing my fucking patience-- which is rather short.
I can't stand the action in VLO, but love HANS. I fucking hate PTEN, UPL and INTC-- but love MVIS. Slowly but surely, the market is becoming a stock pickers playground. You have to be highly skilled and disciplined to make money in markets like this.
In closing, I want to wish all of you a Merry Christmas. I really enjoy expressing my thoughts through this blog and greatly value the input you fuckers contribute.
NOTE: Ben, from the Microvision blog, has year in review summary worth reading for MVIS shreholders.
Late Day Thought
Fly Buy: HANS
Disclaimer: If you buy HANS because of this post, evil Santa will visit your house and eat all of your cookies, drink all of your milk and steal all of your presents. And, you may lose money.
Position Updates: HANS
Just to recap:
Jones Soda (JSDA) and their disgusting line of beverages cannot hold a candle to Hansen Natural's Monster.
On the back of, yet another swipe at HANS by Cramer, I'd add to my HANS position, right here- right now.
The numbers are low at HANS. Once the distribution deal with BUD kicks in, HANS should go from 70% market penetration to 90%.
Bottom line: There is still another run or two left in HANS.
Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors
Despite a nasty drop in thw DOW and NASDAQ, the semi's are holding up well. We are not seeing the 3-5% drops that are typical in a semiconductor selloff. Therefore, I feel the group may firm up and even go green, today.
Again, I don't believe we are due for a prolonged selloff and would add to positions, between snacks.
NOTE: Keep an eye out for the dip buyers. The bears are getting too cocky here and may get their accounts poleaxed, just in time for Christmas.
The following Semiconductor stocks have mojo:
Cramer Wrong on Jones Soda
With JSDA up 15% on the Cramer pump, I'd fade it.
NOTE: Bob Parker, managing director at Credit Suisse asset management, is now cautious on equities. I respect Bob's opinion on the markets more than any talking head that CNBC interviews. Bob is a regular guest on CNBC Europe. Which, by the way, is a great program-- unlike CNBC U.S.
Watch Bob here.
Thursday, December 21, 2006
Why Fly has Ads
"How much money are you getting running ads compared to trading? If it's chicken feed, then why do it?"
Well, I will answer this question for every blogger in the world that has the audacity to have ads on his/her site:
Get paid for work done.
Simple stuff like that has helped me build annoying additions to my house--which effectively ruin my neighbors view.
To me, the size of my Adsense check($10 bucks) is not of any importance. Thank God. I keep ads on this site for two reasons:
1. In my mind, it justifies the amount of time I fucking waste on the internet.
2. I am a greedy, capitalist, evil man who would rob a homeless man of his gov't cheese-- so that I could sell it on Ebay for a few bucks. I am fucked up like that.
In my sick, twisted mind, I feel if you are stupid enough to blog-- you might as well get paid to do it. Furthermore, if you are blogging and do not run ads, well then, you are just a fucktarded, dickless, righteous asshat.
UPDATE: Apparently, I touched a nerve with the Tapeworm guy. He has now resorted to challenging me to fist-i-cuffs. Listen up guy: I am a grown man. I don't fight with strangers from the internet and I advise you to chill the fuck out and go drink your pain away. Also, it's awfully hypocritical to say in one sentence "You think your (sic) tough on the internet." Then in the very next sentence threaten to "beat the living fuck out of u (me)!"
Once again: Fuck off, fucker.
This is juvenile, I know.
No closing comments today, fuckers.
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, killer bees will nest in your attic. And, you may lose money.
Market Prediction for 2007
First off, sharp declines like that are once in a lifetime events. Considering we already got our faces ripped off between 2000-2002, I seriously doubt another crash is looming.
Instead of playing Merlin the magician, these beartards should do work and quit being so damn negative.
As for perma-bulls, at least they have cool hair doos.
My prediction for 2007 is for stocks to trade up and down.
NOTE: This guy is right about futures trading. However, I do not believe futures trading is suitable for small investors. That guy Cal, running around the web promoting it, suffers from delusions of grandeur and should be denied access to airplanes, important landmarks and other high security area's.
Sector Spotlight: Metals
We are seeing very negative action in commodity related stocks, specifically the Metals and Oil. I attribute that to year end profit taking/protecting returns. The Metals were the leading sector in 2006-- with monster gains in nearly every single stock in the group. At these levels, I do not like the sector and would avoid it.
Conversely, I feel the Oils are on sale now. Stocks like VLO, UPL and PTEN should be accumulated on this dip.
Aside from the commodities, the market is trading sideways-- as most money managers packed up their balls and are now investing like Saul Rosenberg from the Jerky Boys. Don't expect any big moves in the big names. However, low float stocks, like MAMA, may continue to be manipulated until year end. Be careful not to get suckered into any small cap momentum plays.
Finally, as per request, I will list my positions tonight and maybe throw a few predictions on the barbie.
NOTE: If you like the Jerky Boys, listen to this or this. Or, listen to Frank Rizzo offer his volunteer work. Funny stuff.
The following Metals stocks have no mojo:
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Everlast: What Its Like
After the close, it appears JBL and PMCS missed numbers. I sense many "traders" are attempting to time the top again and feel the market is ripe to roll over. I would caution anyone who has this in mind, and suggest to keep a very short leash on open short positions.
There is nothing that tells me the market is running "out of steam." Furthermore, as a bull, I believe any minor dip should be met with loud, obnoxious buy orders to his servant/trader.
Speaking of servants. I have no idea what to buy him for Christmas. Should I buy him a traditional black and white butlers uniform, to replace his dreadful Jos. A. Bank casual wear?
Or, maybe I should buy him a fucking hearing aid-- so that he responds to my buy orders with greater alacrity? Got that trader?
As for today's trading:
I was impressed with the action in tech, especially Internet and Networking stocks. However, I am afraid some of the more speculative names, like MAMA, are getting ahead of themselves and may poleax the top tickers-- sometime very soon.
All in all, it was a good consolidation day. I was pleased with the action in MVIS and HANS. And, I am excited that VLO dropped more than a buck. I feel the sellers in that name are making a mistake. I will be buying more VLO.
Finally, I feel the Software sector needs to be bought. Within that group, I like ADBE, CTSH, KNXA, SNPS, SYMC and BMC.
Position Updates: HANS
Is anything better than the Monster?
Then, suddenly this is "delivered" to my desk. My deepest questions on life and beverage have now been answered.
Long live the Monster.
Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors
Granted, at times the market can over heat when everyone is so bullish. I just do not believe valuations are stretched. Furthermore, the argument that states "the market has gone up so much over the last 6 months, therefore we must now correct" is utterly and completely fucktarded. Who pays these hacks to come up with such brilliant ideas?
All I know is this: Prices are going higher now because people want to own stocks.
As for the Semi's:
I believe the semi's will catch fire today, mainly because of momentum. So far, I like the action in PMCS, IDTI, BRCM and NVEC.
NOTE: Donald Trump's vodka play, DKAM, is up again. WTF?
NOTE II: From what I hear, the MVIS meetings went very well and their new Picop projector is fire. There were a lot of hitters at the meeting, Lehman, UBS, Deutch, Citi, etc. I suspect the stock will start gaining momentum the closer we get to CES.
Position Updates: HANS, ADBE
Hansen Natural-HANS initiated with a Buy, tgt $42@STFLStifel, Nicolaus is positive on HANS's growing share in the alternative beverage drink market and views valuation as attractive.
Cramer pumped ADBE.
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Cassie: Long Way to Go
Today's rally from the abyss was typical of a bull market. The buyers love to buy the discounts, while the sellers fear to hold their shorts. The best chance the bears have to bring the market lower will be after New Years.
Typically, the first week of the year sets the tone and is always a battleground. Until then, I strongly suggest buying quality stocks on a dip or even on an uptick. Just go long.
As for today's trading:
I liked the action in the Internet's, specifically GOOG, MAMA, GMKT and OSTK. Also, once bankrupt satellite company, Loral (LORL) is on fucking fire. I was supposed to take a position in the stock when it was $25. Unfortunately, because of my fucktardidness-- I did not.
Finally, I was impressed by the resilience in HANS, TRID, ADBE and RBAK. Also, Donald Trump's vodka, DKAM, looks parabolic to the upside. I wonder how much further it can go?
NOTE: Aside from Trump's vodka, DKAM has an impressive list of products. Click here for details.
Late Day Thought
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, you will encounter overly aggressive mortgage brokers, during dinner. And, you may lose money.
Position Updates: MVIS
Furthermore, with the stock on a slow drip down on light volume, I would be adding to my position down here.
The story is not complete, yet.
Sector Spotlight: Gold
As for our crappy markets:
On Friday, I felt bulletproof. As a matter of fact, I said we were going straight up-- until year end. Once again, mother market "corrected" my over bullish position with several hundred thousand lashings to my face and neck.
Frankly, CC is run by a group of brainless monkeys on lsd-- with all that lcd inventory. Every time I visit CC, I leave saying "boy this store sucks, CC is going to be in the shitter one day."
Wa-la. She is in the shitter today. Hopefully, the fucktards who are in charge at CC will draw down their lcd inventory and diversify their business.
Finally, because the dollar is tanking, oil and gold are on fire. Again, I feel buying oil/gold is an excellent way of hedging the dollar decline and would always keep 10% in oil and another 4% in gold.
I suspect stocks like VLO, UPL, AUY and HL should do well in a weak dollar environment.
NOTE: Donald Trump's vodka is being sold by a very small company, DKAM. The stock has been on fire as of late. Any thoughts?
Monday, December 18, 2006
Brand Nubian: Punks Jump Up To Get Beat Down
So, I have trained myself to have faith in the asshole dip buyer-- for he never disappoints. Today, many of us undertook severe lashings at the hands of "mother market," and wonder if the bitch will beat us again tomorrow.
Being on the receiving end of many a lashing, I do not fear market declines and use them to my advantage.
With the precipitous drop in oil, I suspect further weakness in oil stocks. However, what is bad for oil may be good for tech.
Bottom line: Despite the negative tone today, I will be using this Christmas markdown to do a little shopping, especially in tech.
NOTE: Today and tomorrow, MVIS is hosting analysts from Citi, UBS, etc.
Late Day Thought
Quick Alert: Oil Stocks Getting Poleaxed
Stocks like TSO, UPL, VLO and two dozen others are subject to panic selling.
My approach is to nibble here, bite later. As you know, when oil stocks lose momentum-- it could get ugly.
Naturally, with the markets down and the dollar weak, the bears are claiming the end of civilization as we know it--now. However, I suspect the asshole dip buyers have a few buy order left-- prior to the New Year.
Fly Buy: MVISW
Disclaimer: If you buy MVISW because of this post, termites may eat your house. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: VLO
Disclaimer: If you buy VLO because of this post, the next time you uncork a bottle of champagne-- it will explode on your guests and the cork will pierce through your new lcd t.v. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: RACK
Getting Ready for 2007
Sure, you can fuck around and make believe you are Gordon Gekko and buy some dog shit stock with hopes of a hail mary turnaround. But, in the real world, find comfort in the fact that other people know more than you. Moreover, the short way to ride their coat tails is by buying stocks on the 52 week high list.
Now, don't get me wrong, I do not suggest buying a stock just because it is at a new high. No siree bob. That would be fucktarded. Instead, start your weeding out process with stocks at or within 5% of a new high. After that, check company descriptions, revenue/growth, gross margins, price/sales, price to book ratio's and competition. Then, after all that, sift through old press releases, read SEC filings and listen to old conference calls.
At the end of your screening, you might just find another HANS or AKAM.
Granted, this screening process will take a long time and is not for everyone. I do it because I am obsessed with finding new idea's and keeping an edge over my competition. However, even if I only ran my own money, I would still do it-- just for the sake of a good treasure hunt.
Here is my 2005 52 week high list with 2006 performance numbers.
NOTE: Green highlights significant outperformance, while red represents heavy losses.
As you can see, I break stocks down by market caps. Had you did a little research and bought some of 2005's big winners, you might have made some big coin in 2006. Some winners include: AIRM +70%, BITS +125%, ROLL +78%, KNOT +139%, SIGM +71%, ANDE +85%, KNXA +56%, ICON +94%, CLB +136%, GOLD +42%, TCC +92%, ACLI +126%, RTI +106%, WBD +136%, TTEC +91%, BGC +124%, SSRI +95%, OS +110%, FMCN +109%, NITE +101%, TWTC +112%, CAL +108%, ISE +81%, BLS +81% and LFC +201%.
My point: Just because a stock is up big during a year, doesn't mean it is done going higher. As a matter of fact, stocks at 52 week highs tend to stay near highs, barring a fundamental change with the company or market. Furthermore, if you are looking for the "next big thing," it will always be found on the new high list.
Also, it's worth noting, 2005's 52 week low list performed well in '06. Here is the list. Winners include: DTV, FS, CMCSA, NWS, V, DISH and GM. So far, I haven't put together a 2006 new low list. However, looking at my screen data, big losers in '06 include: GSK, MU, RDN, SFD, IMCL, LSTR, FWRD, ABFS, LEND, GGC, LZB, WIRE, TOPT, SOLD, BBA and BF'b.
Finally, here is the 2006 list of stocks at or within 5% of a new high.
NOTE: The 2006 list is incomplete and only goes up to 5 billion market cap. But, you get the idea.
NOTE II: Please take the new "Fly Survey." Are you bullish or bearish on the markets?