Saturday, July 07, 2007
I'm BACK! No more weekends beside yourself with confusion, no more filling the void between market close friday and market open monday with a turpentine nap--I am here to guide you, and hopefully, upset you. I'm going for morally, and emotionally. I moved, that was then, and I have Internet now. And boy have I missed the Internets--as they have missed me.
I know there are a lot of new readers, so I'll introduce myself. I am Danny, the illustrious weekend janitor. Scores of men have tried to usurp my throne and none have succeeded. I am like Alexander the great, but three decibels more charming. I am a NASA-certified "rightist," because the vast majority of what I say ends up being correct. It's not my fault, it's historical precedence.
That stuff aside, I am not as proud of this video as I am the HANS one. I kinda consider this an interim video, for the next great one. It's not bad, but it's not nearly as great--and certainly a little more random.
Regarding the miscellaneous skits at the end, the point of them is, Apple's iPhone is a disruptive force. It is a scarce resource in the immediate term, but also in the longer term. It's old news--the iPhone is a status symbol that many will turn to for their next, fancier, ipod. I mean phone. The second skit shows how new technology forces companies to change. The way the phone will be upgraded via downloadable updates, like my mac, is awesome. This is going to make iphones as customizable as computers. That's fucking sweet. So enjoy the video. I had to cut the last 10 seconds of it to make it fit in shitty youtube. Nothing important happans.
Sorry for the rant-like nature of some of it, I am not going for a suck my naswad here, but just remember the sophomoric nature of this attempt and look forward to the next one, which will indeed be epic. Oh, and just to cover all my bases, I am aware a significant majority, if not entirety of this video isn't about stocks, per se, but I can tell you anecdotally more than 15% of people I know want an iPhone. So take it for its entertainment value and go fridge yourself, fatso.
PS: I am posting a stock based somethin-ruther later this weekend. Hope you had a good fourth, I did, and it is with much 'merican gusto, I heartily proclaim: Go USA. And reader, I downgrade your portfolio to neutral from market accumulate.
Friday, July 06, 2007
Staind: Price to Play
UPDATE: I took that Oasis shit off, mainly because they suck.
If you are so stubborn, unable to see the bullet zipping towards your head, listen to what "The Fly" is telling you now. Put away your "macro economics for dummies" book, and listen up:
Cover your shorts now and go long, before it's too late.
"The Fly" is rarely wrong on broad market moves, especially while properly caffeinated. I'll have you know, just today, I drank 3 green Monster Energy Soda's and one giant iced coffee, while blasting offensive music-- making the paintings on the wall vibrate.
Furthermore, I like this market so much, I am perplexed where to invest. I like everything.
Today, big dicked gains were found in the homebuilders, metals, oils, tech, retail and brokers.
With my money, I will try to stay focused and not spread myself too thin. During next week, I will buy BWLD, MVIS, OEH, VLO, EQIX, AEO, MATH and maybe some BXC.
Should the price of lumber break $300, I suspect lumber stocks will get a boost. Today, the price of lumber soared higher, up $13 to $297.
Additionally, with massive heat waves gripping the country, I expect to see blackouts. Now, there are plenty of infrastructure companies to choose from. However, I am partial to AZZ. If Mother Market loves "The Fly," she will let me buy the fucker on a dip.
Finally, if a shotgun were put to my head, in order to extract one stock pick, I'd say: "shoot me if you must asshole, but before you do, go long OEH."
Position Update: HANS
Thanks to MrkcBill for the pic.
Late Day Thought
HANS Shorts Land on Bull Beach
Keep shorting, idiots.
Fly Buy: BWLD
Disclaimer: If you buy BWLD because of this post, your wife will leave you. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, your neighbor's dog will eat your cucumber plant. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: MATH
Disclaimer: If you buy MATH because of this post, you will be the recipient of a "zeeked" haircut. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Retail
I mean, how many different ways must a short seller have his face punched in? Yet, despite the underlying strength in everything under the sun, short interest is near record highs.
As you know, "The Fly" is banking some serious coin today. Already, HANS, NTRI, VLO, SNDK, MVIS, AEO, CN, NYX and FMCN are punching lips off the sellers.
With my money, I want to buy more OEH and AZZ, if the fucker will stop going up.
As for retail, M, TGT, AEO, BID, ZUMZ and VLCM look attractive.
Look you, American's will not stop spending money. We are a materialistic society, where everyone wants to be rich. Moreover, there are a boatload of credit card companies who will gladly make you "feel rich," for a small loan rate of 35%, Italian mafia style.
While it's true, if "The Fly" was Presidente, he would take a large wrecking ball to Mastercard's fucktarded HQ, in order to set those fuckers straight. However, "The Fly" is nothing more than a mere stock market guru, with a bullet proof ego and "calculator brain."
NOTE: I'm calling a bottom on MVIS, again. Go ahead, fuck around and short the stock. You'll find yourself living under a bridge, inside 6 months.
Thursday, July 05, 2007
Rakim: Paid In Full
With my money, I will continue to add to my OEH position. OEH was rumored to be bought out, many months ago. Additionally, the company owns many high end resort hotels in Europe and Asia-- with a few here in the states.
Without a doubt, OEH is a buy up to $60.
Also, the oils looks great here. Stick with VLO.
As for MVIS:
Well, the warrant conversion fiasco is about to end, tomorrow. I am hearing of many mix ups and confusion, particularly with Pershing clearing. Hopefully, everyone converts and doesn't get left with a worthless piece of paper.
I anticipate the stock will remain range bound, between $4.40-$5.00, until the company gets their fucking act together and inks a deal.
Naturally, waiting indefinitely for the magic bullet can be somewhat tiresome. Nonetheless, I am patient enough to see the bigger picture, which will inevitably result in a much higher stock price-- than today's $4.67 close.
Aside from that, I like the action in LNN, BWLD and AZZ, amongst many others.
Over the next month or so, I expect things to be slow and "The Fly" to become somewhat lazy. During the summer, I look to coast by with emphasis on preservation of capital (I am fully aware of the gayness of that statement).
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, the good news you want may never come to fruition. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: VLO
Disclaimer: If you buy VLO because of this post, Blackstone will buy your company and fire you. And, you may lose money.
UPDATE: Never doubt the power of my fucking oatmeal bowl.
Position Update: AAPL
About 2 weeks ago, I went to a birthday party, hosted by my older sons friend. At the party, I was discussing stocks, which always happens once people find out I manage money.
Anyway, long story short, I got into a debate with some guy over where AAPL would be trading, post iphone.
His assertions were: "Cramer said to sell the news." And, "why not sell it here and buy it back cheaper."
As you can understand, "The Fly" doesn't stand for such asshattery and was close to getting into a fist fight over such flawed logic.
The conversation ended with me saying something stupid, like: "You're going to be eating your shoes, when the stock hits $160, pal."
Obviously, every rank amateur tried to short the iphone launch, only to buy back shares higher.
In case you haven't figured it out by now, the iphone is a game changer, assholes. For example, look at my "Fly Survey." It says 15% of you would buy an iphone. At first glance, the low IQ'ers probably think 15% is a low number, when in fact it's huge.
If AAPL gets 15% of the U.S. handset market, the stock will be $300, easy.
Fly Buy: OEH
UPDATE: I bought 1,000 @ $54.98.
Disclaimer: If you buy OEH because of this post, the tree in front of your house will become infested with termites. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Internet
I mean, should I go with the Italian lunch meat with vinegar and oil? Or, fuck around with Thanksgiving on a roll?
The rice pudding is a definite. I'm sure the Indian restaurant down the street will have some with raisins.
Aside from that, internet stocks are ripping higher, with big dicked gains in SNCR, CHINA, BIDZ, NTES, LOCM and BIDU.
With my money, due to the light volume, I will just sit here and throw bread ends at my trader/servant.
Also, it's worth noting, there is a "real" arbitrage situation in MVIS versus MVISW. Friends of mine have been capitalizing on the spread. To me, it's amusing to see no opinion coming from a certain $10 bet winner/fucktard blogger, who resides from the cesspool of New Zealand.
Finally, it's nice to see UA enrobed in flames, despite not owning any shares. And, my favorite hotel stock, on the HLT buyout, is OEH. Undoubtedly, one day those fuckers will get bought out too.
Wednesday, July 04, 2007
Assholes, No Politics Here
Assholes, go fuck your pet pig, instead of posting distorted perceptions of history and present affairs.
"The Fly" is not interested in your opinions, unless of course you happen to know about certain takeovers.
With that being said, enjoy the rest of your holiday and get ready to roast some shorts, early tomorrow morning.
NOTE: I will have my trader/servant erase all political messages. Or, I'll have several hand grenades sent to blow up and sink your shitty country. Fuckers.
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
God Bless America
And fuck everyone else.
Alkaholiks: Only When I'm Drunk
I hate half days. It doesn't make any sense, as you know.
With that being said, I was up 0.4%. But that's not important.
What's important to "The Fly" is going to see Transformers.
I'll have you know, when "The Fly" was little, Transformers was his favorite cartoon. However, unlike you Autobot fuckers, I always wanted the Decepticons to win.
As for today's trading, who gives a fuck?
Get the grill and beers ready and show some fucking respect for the men and women in the armed forces.
If it wasn't for them, you'd be playing backgammon right now, instead of trading stocks.
Have a great 4th.
Sector Spotlight: Financials
As you know, the financials represent 21% of the S&P 500, making them a must own for most mutual funds. Recently, thanks to robust growth, the brokers have dominated the sector with spectacular returns.
However, due to a myriad of non issues, many of them have sold off. In my opinion, the recent declines in GS, BSC, LEH, MS, MER and BCS represent an ideal buying opportunity.
Naturally, if I had to choose one, I'd say go long GS.
Additionally, smaller firms are enjoying monster runs, based upon takeover rumors. Look at OPY.
Aside from finanacials, I like the action in the Trannies, especially OSG, KEX and FDX.
Finally, I would not chase iphone plays, such as SNCR. AAPL has a history of fucking their partners, mainly because Steve Jobs is a ruthless prick. Also, following bullshit numbers, MRVL looks good for a trade here.
Monday, July 02, 2007
As you know, NTRI, RIMM, HANS, CN, INTC, EQIX and RS had spastic moves to the upside. Furthermore, I am confident the fuckers at MVIS will get their fucking stock ship righted, shortly.
As you know, the shorts are in serious trouble, as all asset classes advance, with the exception of U.S. dollars.
For the most part, a weak dollar is beneficial to the big multi national firms, particularly when it comes to currency gains. However, the deterioration of the dollar should not be embraced, for that is fucktarded.
Should the dollar keep sliding, foreign investors will flee U.S. markets, effectively poleaxing the bulls, at least temporarily.
With my money, I will resist the urge to put idle cash to work, unless I feel like fucking with Barry Minkow, via USNA.
As for micro cap stocks, I hear good buzz around MATH. Don't ask more.
And, I really like the story behind AZZ. If the electrical grid in the U.S. fucks up again this summer, expect the politicians to demand the utilities upgrade their systems. That's where AZZ comes in. Look it up, lazy goat fuckers.
Finally, my top pick, for this week, is VLO. I know the stock has been on a huge run and oil prices are already rich. Nonetheless, I sense both stock and oil prices will get richer, effectively making "The Fly" richer.
Bone Thugs N Harmony: I Tried
I am very busy right now. I will do the closing comments later on tonight.
Dollar Weakness=Buy Commodity Stocks
Just in case you are new to this planet, when the dollar goes lower, dollar denominated commodities go higher.
With that being said, I can't help but think VLO is a screaming buy here, up to $80.
Additionally, I like my chances with RS and other metal stocks.
Keep in mind, higher oil prices should not be ignored as a non event. There will be a material effect on the consumer and restaurant goers.
So, it makes sense to hedge the higher oil price via staying long high quality oil stocks.
Natty is more of a hurricane play and seems like dead money, as of now.
Sector Spotlight: Metals
Thus far, I am not sold on any of them. However, a few stand out, such as APLX, BRLI, AZZ, USNA and CGX.
Over the next week or so, I'll have many more names and possible entry points.
Although the prospect of "mushroom clouding" an ex convict turned "bear shitter" is certainly appealing, I need to do some more "research" first.
As for the general market:
It appears, once again, the sellers are receiving a few battle ax blows to the cranium, especially in the Metals.
Within the sector, RTP, AA, PCU, STLD, BHP, KALU and RTI have strong momentum.
Also, LOCM is screaming bloody murder, with the most fucktarded gains I've seen in some time. As you know, at one point "The Fly" was loading up on this little fucker, but sold out. Trust me when I say, "The Fly" feels like throwing live monkey's at the person who told me to sell it.
Finally, my favorite networking stock, EQIX, is setting up to blow past $100. Keep an eye on that. And, until MVIS clears up the warrant situation, expect volatility. However, once done, I expect MVIS to punch the lips off the sellers, just like LOCM is doing now.
NOTE: I'm not buying the FMCN dip, yet.
NOTE II: Please take the new "Fly Survey." Will you buy the iphone?
NOTE III: HANS to $50.
Sunday, July 01, 2007
The Important Matter of Barry Minkow
In short, he promises some silly video, shortly. "Elections" will commence, immediately following his fucking video.
As for Barry Minkow:
This is just about the funniest shit to hit Wall Street, since he was thrown in jail in 1988 for being a major dick and criminal.
Seriously, Barry is the reverse Billy Mayes. Instead of pitching a company's bullshit products, via infomerical-- he trashes them. And, he buy puts before doing it.
Barry went to jail, back in 1988, for running a publicly traded scam, called ZZZZ Best Carpet Cleaning, who had mob ties to boot. Read all the background noise here.
Now, following a 7 year prison term, Barry has dedicated his life to "fighting fraud," and is now a "Senior Pastor" at a Church, naturally.
He is reborn, this time with puts in his brokerage account.
Barry is now trying to destroy a company called Usana (USNA). Usana sells vitamins and a myriad of other hippy bullshit. Basically, Usana is an Avon copycat, where regular idiots attempt to become gagillionaires, via selling crap to their friends and family.
As you know, only lazy fucktards sell Avaon. I suspect lazier fucktards sell Usana.
In short, Barry has gone on a frenzied campaign to destroy shareholder value in USNA. He has a website and regularly uploads reverse sales pitches on Youtube.
In my opinion, Barry's charges are silly and smells like someone trying to make a bundle on his puts.
He claims that most of the retards who sell USNA products lose money and that Usana is using unethical sales techniques, in order to trick people into selling Vita-shit.
That's capitalism fucker. If Barry thinks the multi level marketing world of business is fucked up, he should visit any brokerage firm in America. I'd say roughly 85% of all registered reps fail, within the first two years.
During a registered reps training period, he is belittled, abused and forced to live in poverty. Does that mean the regulators should shut down MER?
If some of the lazy couch potato's, who sell USNA, can't make money, I say fuck'em. Not everyone is cut out to be a salesman.
As you know, "it's a tough racket."
So, where is "The Fly" going with all this useless information?
Well, I'm thinking about finding Barry Minkow and throwing some spaghetti at him, or help run USNA back to $60, in order to fuck with Barry's puts.
Frankly, I do not find USNA to be a very appealing company. Without the prospect of destroying Barry, I'd probably throw a bowl of soup at the company's CEO, if given the opportunity.
However, because of this Minkow, every jackass in America has sold short USNA. The fucking short interest is through the roof and the sentiment is gloomy.
Furthermore, the company is in the midst of a stock buyback program. Should these "pyramid players" beat the lowered numbers on the street, Barry and his friends may go back to jail or lose lots of money.
Either scenario is fine with me.
A short squeeze gentleman. A short squeeze.