Saturday, September 08, 2007
Let's get it!
While "The Forgotten Man" is certainly an interesting book, I'm not sure that a review of it has any place on this blog. As it happens, it isn't really about trading or investing; it's about the history and politics of the Great Depression. (And as you know, the discussion of such subjects is strictly forbidden on this "vulgar" blog.)
In an effort to give you a good idea of what Shlaes' book is about, I suggest that you take a look at this. After spending a week reading the actual text, I can tell you that this short article does an excellent job of summarizing the 700-page book.
Delimiting our focus to trading and investing, I find it difficult to offer many conclusions. (As I said, those subjects were not the focus of her book.) However I believe that it provides us with a good reminder of the tremendous (and often bearish) influence that equivocal political leadership and interventionist policies can affect upon on our holdings. As the book illustrates, it was in fact the presence of such qualities in Roosevelt's leadership (and too an extent, also Hoover's) that inflicted so much damage on the Dow.
That being said (and without getting too political), I think that its recent release coincides nicely with the soon-to-be-changing political leadership we'll come to witness in the near future. Should we currently be in throws of a recession that extends into the next few years, the valuation of the private sector could be further diminished by the possibility of new, interventionist legislation (from either side of the aisle) and the potential for increased competition from the public sector. As such, it is my belief that these factors necessitate an understanding of our current political climate in order to navigate the financial markets.
But that isn't surprising. For better or worse, I've come to believe that you can't really profit in the market unless you know something that others don't or you can appreciate something that other market participants do not yet appreciate (but will soon come to realize). As this relates to the reminder that Shlaes' book gives us, I would suggest that sectors such as health care, utilities, and the like are at this point perhaps more speculative than investors realize. (Note: That is not to say that I'm necessarily bearish about the future of these industries.)
With the majority of media attention focused on the recession (that we may or may not be in) and all of its causes, I suspect that there is currently a lack of appreciation for the politically-related risk faced by these sectors. But as elections draw increasing closer, media attention--along with investor sentiment--is likely to shift. It is in this change of focus (and as a consequence, share price) that there may exist an opportunity for profit. (Perhaps one of you can even think of a specific stock that may be particularly vulnerable to such a shift.)
Of course, the assertion that the valuation of such sectors doesn't reflect an adequate appreciation is a difficult one to justify. The fact that I've formed that assertion based on the notion that "the focus of the media largely dictates the focus of investors" is certainly objectionable. (Perhaps one of you has experience or input on the profitability of gaming the media.)
Okay; I'm already wandering way the hell off course. To wrap this up: "The Forgotten Man" (despite not being about trading or investing) offers an interesting and fresh perspective on the political and economic decisions of the White House during the Great Depression. It is my belief that an accurate understanding of that era (which Schlaes does an excellent job of providing) is central to the correct interpretation of present economic conditions, and in turn the financial markets.
Master of the Flying Guillotine is easily the greatest cinematic masterpiece of our generation (with the possible exception of Slam Dunk Ernest or Killa Season).
Better than nothing...maybe.
It's been a while since I last held the distinguished office of Weekend Blogger. I can't say that I actually missed it, but due to my financial situation I wasn't in any position to turn down "The Fly's" most recent (and most generous) offer. You see, things sort of took a turn for the worse after I was "shitcanned" for intentionally posting during a weekday. Here's what happened:
After losing my only source of income as a senior weekend blogger assistant apprentice, I soon found myself desperate for money. No longer able to make good on my twenty-some-odd child support payments nor satisfy my addiction to huffing industrial solvents, I was eventually thrown into debtor's prison after my food stamps arbitrage fund imploded-- due to a "repricing of risk" in the Financial Assistance markets.
Naturally, the collapse of my firm triggered a full-blown panic throughout our nation's housing projects-- bursting the speculative bubble that had for several decades showcased the excessiveness and greed of the poor (or "sharks"). Food stamps, which had at one point commanded as many as seven bus tokens or even a fifth of Everclear, were now as worthless as a Lightning Round stock pick.
Times were tough for those who were heavily exposed to the poverty markets. As Jemal "You are...NOT the father!" Jenkins, a once affluent floor trader at the Marcy Projects Financial Assistance Exchange, explained to CNBC reporter Maria Bartiromo, "Real talk, this some bullshit, son. Those cats done did some sellin', right-- an' now we rollin' all financially impoverished an' shit. So now we needs to get back to stackin' dem papers by hustlin' fake jewelery outside of Burger King an' shit. You fell me?"
While I was enduring my own hardships in jail, Fly was kind enough to send me "The Forgotten Man" by Amity Shlaes. Despite the absence of any weapon or means of escape from prison hidden within the text, the book itself wasn't too bad. So at some point this weekend, I'll attempt to bring you another book review. But in keeping with my own precedent, the odds that I'll actually talk about the book or even anything that has to do with it are slim to none. What's worse, I can hardly guarantee that I'll even get around to making another post this weekend. Hell, I don't even know if this post is "legal".
Here's some rap music (or something). I don't really know what's going on here, but there are a bunch of guys with guns and gang signs and shit like that (which, as you know, are very popular with today's youth).
Friday, September 07, 2007
Quick Alert: The Mets Won; The Market is Saved
Also, Don "Dollar" Danks managed to close iiG up-- and MVIS was hardly down. Oh, mysteriously, my OEH closed up. Looks like someone wants to buy some high end hotels.
I will now resume alcohol intake: bourbon, no chaser (chasers are for pussies).
UPDATE: Thanks to a commenter, I read the nasty little things that fuckball at "Dope on a Rope" had to say. Let me make two quick points.
1. "The Fly" has an IQ of 155 or much higher than yours. Please check your grammar and syntax, at best, it is on a 7th grade level.
2. If you said any of that shit to my face, I'd have someone knock your eyebrows, mustache and chest hairs-- clean off your face and torso. Keep my name out of your filthy, bearshitting mouth.
Jadakiss: Kiss Of Death
Before I start this pointless rant, look at TARR--bang-zoom.
From this day on, on this blog, economic debates are illegal, in the comments section. Any violation of this rule will result in your fucking mustache being punched off. As you know, I track all of you fuckers and know where you live. Go ahead, violate my rules. Next thing you know, you're at dinner sipping on your favorite fruity white wine, then bam; some muscle bound, over tanned jerk off from Brooklyn punches your mustache off.
Regarding this market:
Let's take a moment to discuss the fucktardedness of Rick Santelli. Since when did that trader/fucker become an economist?
Since fucking when, I ask?
The market will not rebound today, despite fresh efforts from my new Voodoo "Physician." Many Nasdaq 100 stocks are deep in the red, like NVDA, DELL, NIHD, RIMM and ERTS.
Just to preserve some sanity, I have opted to throw some shorts on the barbie.
Right here, right now, I like LAZ, MDC and RSH short. And, I hate the homebuilders, via SRS long.
God willing, Bernanke will cut rates Monday and "save the day." If not, prepare to get "knee-capped" by a bunch of old, wrinkled bearshitters.
NOTE: MVIS is "recession proof."
BREAKING NEWS: I have a new Voodoo Doctor
I'm leaving the office for a few hours, off to discuss important matters, such as aluminum versus wood or hot dogs versus sausage.
In the meantime, my new and improved Voodoo Doctor assures me "on the lungs of (his) goats," this "blessed" "Golden Bull" will help the markets.
However, looking at the internals, I anticipate the market will weaken, barring a fucking miracle.
Right now, most of the weakness is focused in the financials and home builders, with 2 and 3% declines, respectively.
In addition, retail is down 2.1%, semi's -2.2%, trannies -1.6% and small caps are down 1.7%. And, the yen carry trade is taking a belt to the stomach, with the FXY climbing 1.14%.
As you know, the only silver lining is the rise in gold, as every fucktard with access to E-trade believes the dollar will "shit the shower." Again, I do not believe the dollar will fall, as much as the gold bugs say it will.
Finally, there is reasonable strength in biotech, drugs and defense stocks.
Taking a wild guess, I think we'll close down 2%.
Sector Spotlight: General Market
Should I say, "fuck the jobs, this bitch is going higher, yeahhhh!"
Or, how about, "wait until Big Ben gets wind of this, he'll cut rates until the DOW hits 30,000, yeahhh!"
Listen you, don't argue with me about the market. You (internet blog reader) are not qualified to discuss the markets future direction with "The Fly."
I'm over here in the lab, fucking around with this time machine, and you are heckling me-- from the luxury of your bullshit Staples chair.
In short, I feel the jobs number is a disaster for market sentiment. However, I am not panic selling. I don't sell into hell.
First, I will start shorting some of my favorite pigs, like LAZ or go long SRS. Then I will sit here, like a jerk off, and watch.
Should the market firm up, I will sell into the rally.
If we head into recession and unemployment starts creeping up, the pending rate cuts will not help the market. I repeat: The pending rate cuts will not help the market.
At the end of the day, the market is fueled by earnings. Should your shitmobile run out of fuel, well then, you're up shits creek.
In order to avoid blowing yourself up again, try to be cognizant of the potential risk to the economy, which will inevitably work its way into the markets.
For now, I will take on some protective shorts and keep my longs.
Fly Buy: SRS
Disclaimer: If you buy SRS because of this post, you will become victim to pending payroll cuts. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: LAZ
Disclaimer: If you sell short LAZ because of this post, soccer will become America's favorite sport. And, you may lose money.
If there is one thing I do not tolerate it is shit talking weekend bloggers.
And I quote:
" I'm telling you, this site provides the best contrary indicator available:Did you read that? He said "Ergo."
The blog and comments have a decidedly bullish. Ergo, when words like crash, recession, shit storm, strawberry shortcake, and dirty sanchez are spewed...when fear takes hold...BUY.
I will be putting cash to work today and Monday."
What the fuck.
Last time I checked, looking at my account statement, I've managed this market like a fucking space alien magician, with the notable exception of a few bad apples.
Enjoy your down 300 point day.
Early Morning Thoughts
Get ready for recession.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Tool - Vicarious
My best guess, iiG bought back a slug of stock, late in the day, effectively ripping the livers out of the shorts. See, this is one of the reasons why it makes sense to stay long stocks with robust buy backs. Remember, these fuckers are committing to buying back 30% of the shares outstanding.
In short, the stock goes higher.
In addition to modest gains in MVIS, LNN and VMI, "The Fly" banked coin in FMCN, HANS, RS, NTRI and GILD.
As you know, the Gov't will be releasing more economic data tomorrow. My sense, the data will be benign and the market will climb.
Off to grill some monster pork chops, served over mashed cannellini beans (no shells) with a concentrated apple juice reduction, of course.
Fly Buy: AZZ
Disclaimer: If you buy AZZ because of this post, your hair piece will fall off, while on a hot date. And, you may lose money.
Then I remembered, because everyone is busy buying SWC and other "great" stocks.
Call me crazy if you must, but I have no desire to buy SWC and take part in the upcoming "palladium super cycle."
As a matter of fact, I hope palladium goes to hell and brings SWC with it, effectively eliminating the markets only "great" stock, which will inevitably send iiG higher.
Aside from that, I've been eating bagels and drinking Monster Blue.
Which reminds me, HANS is going to hit a new 52 week high soon, yet Howard has not "balled up" the internal fortitude to feature the stock on Wallstrip, despite my daily emails demanding he do a show having Cramer drink a few Monsters, while letting off a few rounds at a local shooting range.
If any of you have time to waste, go leave Uncle Howard a kind message, demanding he give into "The Fly's" reasonable demands.
Off to "get my share."
Clean Breakout on Gold
My watch list includes: SA, VGZ, GG, ABX, AUY, NEM and PAAS.
Additionally, the metals are on fire, with nice gains in RTP, PKX, BVN, BHP, RS, NTO, ZEUS, X and NUE.
Don't be fooled into thinking this is a "flight to quality."
This is a "fuck you shorts, you're dead" rally.
Don't forget to take profits.
"Do not talk about fight club"
Position Update: IIG
Basically, this company is like a traveling carnival, holding seminar's in different cities, peddling their web development software. The bears point out that the company is currently prohibited, due to an injunction, from doing business in California, so revenue's should come down and profits diminish.
However, what they do not realize is IIG can pick up and do their seminar's in Nevada, Arizona or Washington and make up the difference. Remember, they are hosting seminar's. As long as they have great salesmen, it doesn't matter where they do business, providing they know how to close.
As for the stock:
The company announced they are prepared to buyback 70 million dollars worth of stock. That's 30% of the company.
Considering the immense scrutiny the company faces being public, coupled with their rich balance sheet, what's to stop them from just going private?
In my opinion, IIG is a cash cow, with very little competition, mainly because no one has the balls to do it. Without a doubt, the shorts will get routed on this name.
It may not happen today or next month; but it will happen.
As you know, I have been buying the stock, ahead of numbers. Now that the numbers are behind it, I will patiently wait and accumulate shares, as the few momentum traders blow out.
Under $18 is a steal, in my opinion.
Sector Spotlight: Energy
Thus far, energy related names are best in show, with nice gains in SYNM, ANR, DEEP, TGA, YGE, HOKU and UNG.
However, for the most part, the market has a slow, summer feel to it, mainly because of economic uncertainty. My guess, the market will stay in a tight trading range, until those cow tipping Fed fuckers meet, in a few weeks.
For now, "The Fly" will continue to pound the "jungle bongo's" for stocks like HANS, NTRI, UNG, LNN, VMI, MVIS and ALJ.
Finally, it's worth noting, there is incredible strength in the shipping sector, as spot rates stay nice and lofty. Within the space, DRYS, EXM, GNK and OSG offer leadership.
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Late Night Update
^^This guy has it right. So, I understand 7 million people are going to lose their homes this year. Fuck 'em. I'm sure they can go back to that one bedroom apartment in Brooklyn, effectively alleviating some of the traffic problems in the "well-to-do" area's.
Look, everyone likes to talk about "the poor" like it's some sort of problem. The only problem is their sub-par DNA, coupled with their inability to "bank coin" in stocks like RIMM, LNN or maybe even iiG (we'll see tomorrow).
In short, being a former "poor person," I can honestly say, from deep down, fuck the poor adults, but feed the kids.
After all, we shouldn't punish the children because their parents are fucking hobo, Gov't cheese eating losers.
Fly for President, 2008
Nine Inch Nails - In This Twilight
From what I understand, the iiG numbers were great, but they guided down, thanks to current litigation issues. However, just know, the company is being extremely conservative and will likely "mushroom cloud" current estimates. Plus, they upped the share buyback.
In short, they bank coin, with hardly any competition. Look for this story to get more interesting, within the coming months.
As for today's trading:
Very disconcerting, especially ahead of tomorrow's job numbers. All day, I was throwing darts at Steve Jobs' face, as AAPL fell through the floor boards.
However, I did have some green, such as FRX, NTRI, UNG, GMXR, ALJ, VLO and ADBE.
For the most part, oil was robust, while everything else suck cock.
Look for tomorrow's economic data to set the tone. On a good number, we're up 200. If bad, up periscope, this fucker is going down.
NOTE: Thanks to today's fucktarded trading in MVIS, I destroyed my favorite paper weight, by smashing its fucking face against the wall-- again and again and again, until it was reduced to dust.
Late Day Thought
I know I am.
However, it's also worth noting, I might get my face kicked in too.
Even money on iiG.
Quick Alert: USNA has Retained PWC as Auditor
Now, that doesn't mean the stock is a buy. It just means the company is operating legally, as it should.
I suspect the short squeeze may continue, effectively "milking Minkow" and his stupid followers.
"If ain't bad, you get fucked"
Sector Spotlight: Financials
What's wrong with this country? Bunch of poor fuckers, led astray by boiler room mortgage brokers.
Plus, the retailers, once again, suck balls, as COST gets knifed.
Look, there is no way to sugar coat this; the economy is in the shitter. There, I said it.
Anyone of you little fuckers who are against the Fed cutting rates will get your chest hairs punched off, by one of my "illegal Mexicans."
Aside from the "machine gunning" I am enjoying today in the market, to make matters worse, I missed a lay up take over play: APLX. Fuck me, I knew it.
I wasted my time, listening to hours of the their conference calls, and what did "The Fly" do?
Nothing. I was too busy eating oatmeal or some shit.
As for my holdings:
I expect most of them to receive the "death hammer," as the market is sure to be down 2%+ today. However, it's worth noting, NTRI, ALJ, UNG, FMCN, DCI, VLO and AAPL are bucking the trend, with iiG not far behind.
With regards to the financials, TIMBER, those fuckers are going lower.
Already, big losses are found in OPY, NFI, KBW, NMR, LAZ, WM, BCS and CCRT.
The only silver lining is the unexpected strength in the basic resource stocks, down less than 1%. And, don't forget, for the most part tech is strong.
I'm not giving up on a late day rally, yet. But, I seriously doubt it.
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Boomer Wins; Long Live Hot Hot Coffee
May Boomer dream of many more life changing future winners, while eating some "hand made biscuits"-- then cordially post them on this here blog.
In honor of Boomer's music taste, I offer this video.
|Should I Shitcan Boomer? [91 votes total]|
|No (61)|| 67%|
EPMD- So What Ya Sayin'
As you know, "The Fly" is interested in getting his share of the billions being made on the internet, via iiG. Nervously, I await its earnings.
In short, I'm too fucking busy to fuck around with retards on the internets. I'm over here "banking coin" planning expensive fall vacations, while you're there reading this bullshit.
Finally, I'm focused on AZZ, LNN, MVIS, UNG, iiG and AXR now. Also, during today's rally, I chuckled, not laughed, at how gay the bears' must feel, in light of the "fuck you, you're dead rally."
Off to tennis.
Fly Buy: iiG
Disclaimer: If you buy iiG because of this post, you may never "get your share of the billions being made on the internet." And, you may lose money.
UPDATE: "Get your share of the billions being made on the internet."
"Let's Not Forget Pearl Harbor"
Stocks for Dummies
I probably should buy and sell these products more often. I guess, I'm "old school," when it pertains to investing.
Anyway, I highly recommend perusing over August's ETF report, for some insight into what's working.
Doing some research, I noticed a new China/India ETF: FNI. And, a nuclear ETF: NLR.
Pretty cool stuff, for lazy people.
Quick Alert: Off to Dunkin' Donuts
God willing, no one important will see me; else, I will be ashamed for all eternity.
Wish me "God Speed."
Fly Buy: AZZ
Disclaimer: If you buy AZZ because of this post, your favorite baseball player will be found guilty of steroid abuse. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: AXR
Disclaimer: If you buy AXR because of this post, the next time you plug in the vacuum, you will get electrocuted. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: LNN
Sector Spotlight: Tech
By the way, in the previous post, I forgot to add PVH, SU, TGT and ADBE. All of them are current positions. Oh, and in my wife's account, she is long LULU, despite my dire warnings of pending disaster.
As for today's trading:
Retail stocks are getting their balls knocked around, like a speed bag, as MWRK, PVH and DDS bleed out. However, there is strength in other names, such as EBHI, CACH, PERY, BKRS, JOSB, SCVL and BONT.
For the most part, retail sucks.
The real fun is in tech.
Within tech, LLNW, ISLN, AVCI, RACK, NETL, SILC, HLIT, NFLX, MFE, LOCM, YHOO, GOOG, BIDU, GRMN, NVDA, TXN, AAPL, ASTSF, KLIC, MFLX, SWKS, EMKR, AMKR, OIIM, PRKR, SUPX, OVRL, SNDK, LEAP and PCS have "fuckloads" of momentum.
However, the market doesn't have strong underpinnings. Therefore, I feel it makes sense to lighten up and take profits, in order to have some cash available for the next dip.
Now, do not misconstrue my message of conservatism for bearishness. As you know, I enjoy dispatching people to punch off the eyebrows of "bearshitters." Moreover, by year end, I believe "The Fly" will book 40%+ gains, mainly by using his "calculator brain" going long stocks.
As predicted, LNN broke the fuck out. Now, look for three stocks to catch fire, AXR, iiG and AZZ.
NOTE: This does not include my foreign holdings.
Monday, September 03, 2007
The Important Matter of Jack the Convict
A long time ago, I would populate my little bullshit fish tank with aggressive fish, such as cichlids, oscars, convicts, or any fish that was demented.
So, after stuffing my 10 gallon tank with as many fish possible, one little fucker made his mark. He made his "mark" by biting off the heads of the other fish, much to my wife's dismay.
However, for me, this shit was funny. I had "Jaws" in a fish tank, on a war path, eating everything in sight. I named him "Jack," after "Jack the Ripper."
Within a few months, Jack was the only fish left in my tank. I kid you not, that little devil ate about 15 fish total, mainly for the hell of it.
Shortly thereafter, "The Fly" made some serious coin in the market and was moving out of the basement apartment he had been subjected to. The only problem: My wife hated Jack so much, she wouldn't let me take him with us. So, sadly, but not really giving a fuck, I left the fish tank, with Jack as its only occupant, in my rented backyard.
Two weeks later, I returned to my old basement, in order to tie up some loose ends. Upon leaving, two little Italian girl's (they would always come over to my house and play with my son), ages 9 and 4, ran over and said they had my fish. They said: "We thought you forgot him; so we put him in our tank. Come see."
So, I went to their house. Their Mother, who had a heavy Italian accent, said she put my fish in her tank, "but look what happened."
Apparently, Jack was the only fucker left in her tank too. He fucking decapitated all of her shitty goldfish, much to her dismay. She told my wife "I had those fish for 5 years."
My wife glared at me, as if I was Jack-- eating other inferior fish.
To make a long story short, I brought Jack to my new house, and put him in my new and improved fish tank. But, nothing changed. Jack would just hide in some shrub, waiting for some stupid fish to swim by, then crunch. Off with its head.
It was amazing.
However, my wife was not amused. She demanded I flush Jack down the toilet, so that she could buy "normal fish." I said "no way, Jack is a survivor." I followed up: "The only way Jack is going out is by the jaws of another fish."
She went to the fish store and bought the biggest fucking cichlid I had ever seen. This fucker was picking up rocks, and moving them, with his mouth. Unfortunately, sadly, Jack had met his match.
After killing Jack, my wife returned her "hit man" to the fish store, and proceeded to buy bullshit "chick fish."
In total, Jack had murdered about 70 fish, of all variety. I remember counting them. Even when the "hit man" was ripping him to shreds, Jack fought back.
Jack is truly an inspirational figure. His "story" should be told to children, across the Nation. Which entails, killing weaker fish, by surprise if needed, in order to take control of the steady flow of fish flakes that drop into the fish tank.
The Miraculous YHOO Trade
This will be my last post unless I'm invited back. I went looking for evidence of my YHOO trade. I found it in my journal, but will not post that here. I also have my brokerage account. Again, private.
But I did find this.
I emailed this to the friends I told about the trade. You can see that the Yahoo! chart cannot be duped. I took a screen shot, added the stars, and cropped the page. Make up your own minds, but I tell you now: this is a very crazy true story. I have more if you ever want to hear them.
May the voting commence. I entrust myself to your will.
One final musical post. Given the "miraculous" trade above, let's groove with the Winans Family, one of Nashville's finest black gospel acts. Watch it to the end. Too perfect. Enjoy.
Sunday, September 02, 2007
The North Won; Now Vote
As you know, Boomer has blogged his face off this weekend, offering stories of amazement, real music video's (not to be confused with the crap I play) and "wonderful" places to eat--should you find yourself lost in Elvis Country, USA.
In short, I am somewhat pleased with his efforts, despite numerous grammatical errors and outrageous claims of psychic abilities.
Which brings me to the next topic and question's:
A. How is it possible that none of you biscuit eating, banjo playing, butter licking fucktards found time to put your mint julep down to yell "bullshit," when our weekend blogger "balled up" with claims of psychic induced YHOO purchases-- buying it "time fucked cheap" @ $9.37?
What the fuck?
Then, he said "I sold it @ $50, just like my dream said." (pardon the paraphrase)
Fuck me twice.
B. Did YHOO ever trade @ $9.37, back in the dot com days? I mean, I remember that fucker being priced in the 20's and do not think it went down to the 9's. Naturally, split adjusted, the stock was lower than $1, but never @ $9-- until the dot coms blew the fuck up.
However, I could be wrong.
In short, I like Boomer. He placates all of you sausage eating, hot, hot coffee drinking corn can fuckers. However, should his lotto ticket story (you know, with the dream) turn out to be false, "The Fly" might have to go down South, in his rented pick-up truck-- and litter his city with filthy Dunkin' Donut cups.
Now go vote.
Should I "shitcan" Boomer?
Note: I'm long SAM.
In Nashville we break the bottlenecks off our empty beer bottles and play slide guitar. Here's a Nashville street musician playing in front of the downtown FedEx Kinko's.
Note: Long FDX too.