Saturday, April 07, 2007


Holy Shit! Was that a successful test?

Back in the summer of 2005, fresh off the success of Nomad, Flic running at about a 50% failure rate, MVIS was desperate for more cash. The last great deal Rutkowski put together was a convertible debt package for around 10 mil. The scum pipe guys, knowing full well R.R. was capable of taking MVIS under demanded 1.75 million shares of LMRA as collateral. Let me put these pipe bastards in context so you Clerks can comprehend. You know the guy you turn to when your Dollar General credit card is maxed and you just had your Yugo repoed, that is who MVIS just got their financing with. The debt was payable over six payments in either stock or cash. The debt holders knew there was no way MVIS was paying cash because this crew couldn't even sell the cream or the clear to Barry and the boys. These guys knew they would be getting stock as long as R.R. was at the helm because that ensured MVIS was going no where.

So this is how it works, they loan 10 mil, if the stock is at $10 MVIS would have to fork over 1 million shares to cover the loan. At $5, two million shares, at $1 10 million shares, you get the point. The pipes immediately short enough shares to hedge the deal then start pounding that thing like Tyson on Givens. They can short the stock mercilessly because the lower it goes the more stock MVIS will have to hand them to pay the loan off and then they use those shares to cover the short. I know this is way more complex then the "can you break a hundy" drill you had to complete to work the graveyard shift at 7-11, but try to stay with me.

Things are going great for the shorts, the stock price is going down faster and harder than a cheap slut, R.R. is working his magic, and LMRA is falling faster than MVIS. The only asset MVIS had is now practically worthless. Things could not be working out any better for those guys, or so they thought. Rutkowski gets a Nomad enema and Tokman takes over, Tokman starts whipping things into shape and hooks up with MDB. I don't know how they got together, perhaps Fly in his infinite wisdom could shed some light here, but this is a key part of out little story. You guys remember when everything went to shit May-July of 2006? Well MDB quickly figured out what Tokman could do and they managed to complete the largest financing MVIS had ever done during the summer of death. MVIS now has some cash but the stock is still in the shit because it is not evident what is going on, yet. Still no worries for the Pipes and the massive short they put on. MDB raises some more cash for MVIS with a small straight equity deal to finish off the shelf. Then it happened, Lumera had a "succesful test" of some technical shit I know nothing about. What I do know is LMRA had a run harder and faster than my ass after fifth of Skol and a Crunch Wrap Supreme. MVIS unloads the LMRA shares they can raising even more cash. Meanwhile word is starting to get around that MVIS may actually produce something other than corn fed crap and the stock starts to creep. Tokman, still looking like Verbal Kint to the pipe boys, goes Keyser Soze on their ass and says fuck you here is your December payment in cold hard cash. Now what the hell are the pipes going to do with all those shares they are short? Tokman and the boys display the PicoP at CES, suddenly they are as popular as the prom queen going bareback, everybody all of the sudden wants to dance with MVIS. March 15 rolls around, the stock is still triple the low in September and Kobayashi shows up with more green for the pipes. Here is your cash, fuck you no stock, we owe you nothing, don't ever call again.

So, Tokman and the boys have been in charge for a scant 14 months and they have produced the world's smallest, thinnest full color laser projector in the world. With the brilliant help from MDB and a successful test they are now debt free with enough cash to get them through the year. They are in negotiations with numerous handset makers and multiple tier one auto suppliers. Three laser manufacturers are tripping over themselves to get in the game to provide lasers to an 800 million unit a year industry getting ready to open up. All of this in 14 moths of the Tokman management team being in charge. He does this in 14 months when it took the previous management team eight or nine years to make a head gear that looked like one of those things the dork in sixth grade would wear to fix his teeth. One day B-Schools around the country will be teaching this in their text books. Of course all the above is just my opinion, but it is a hell of a lot more valuable than yours. One more final post on where to from here. Below is some footage of Tokman's last meetings with the pipe boys, fuck you pipes, you're dead.

Friday, April 06, 2007


Tokman or Bust

I don't think Tokman really knew what a shit storm he was stepping into. He could never have imagined the level of incompetence permeating MVIS. After hearing from Tokman and many disgruntled shareholders on just how miserable R.R. and team were performing, the board did to Rutkowski what many of you are wanting to do to me, fuck you, you are fired.

Once he removed the noose from R.R.'s corporate corpse, he went to work on the executive team and out went the rest of the morons. Rumor has it they are now selling break pads for Callahan Auto Parts. He also started revamping the entire worthless board. Then he convinced 3 more smart fuckers from G.E. to come to MVIS. Tokman, Brown, and Madvahan are all Six Sigma black belts. Not wax on wax off black belts you Alabama lottery hopefuls. Six Sigma is a manufacturing and business discipline that settles for nothing less than perfection. One thing MVIS did have was very talented engineers but they were never able to focus. Rutkowski had 60 engineers working on 40 different projects. Tokman brought that down to four projects all based on the same disruptive technology platform, the integrated photonics module(IPM). The four priorities were embedded PicoP, accessory PicoP, Automotive HUD and the holy grail of full color, daylight readable, see through eye wear in a very cool form factor.

Tokman had to change the entire culture of the company. When he showed up, the place had the morale of a dinner party with Eva and Adolph in April of 1945. He had to make people get used to being held accountable and he had to wipe away years of bad reputation as a company that couldn't do shit. Most importantly he had to get light sources. Why don't you dickweeds put your nose to your television and tell me the color of the 3 pixels you see. That's right, red, blue, and green get you full color. Not many green lasers floating around. A company called Novalux had been working on green lasers for laser t.v. so MVIS paid them some cash to help them with the PicoP project. Tokman wanted more and he wanted it faster. Rumor has it he walked into Corning, also working on laser t.v., and laid out the business case. Corning sent a team of engineers and the rest is history. In a short eleven months MVIS went to CES with the thin mint sized, full color, infinite focus, fucking outrageous projector. They were not there with just one but three units powered by both Novalux and Corning. The industry was set on notice, this ain't your daddy's MVIS.

In a gross over simplification it took old management 8 years to get this,

It took Tokman and team 11 months to get from there to here,

The next post will clue you in on how Tokman and his team, with some brilliant help from MDB and a little luck, reconstructed the finances of this company and turned the tables on the scum pipe debt holders. This string of events set the stage for what you saw this week. Make no mistake about for MVIS it was truly a case of Tokman or bust. Below is some hidden camera footage of old management making a sales call for their new employer.


Back from the Acid Trip

Back to the MVIS story. Rick Rutkowski and his brilliant team spent the next 10 years blowing through massive amounts of cash, getting bent over by scum pipe bucket shops for financing and producing two versions of the dumbest looking contraptions you will ever see. Anybody wearing one of these things would look like a retard in a retard shop. Not only did you look like a complete moron, the thing was monochrome red. Brilliant, the world is exploding with full color small portable devices and you produce something monochrome red that even Beulah Balbricker would have a hard time wearing for more than 10 minutes. Needless to say, I think they may have sold 4 of these things to some Trekkies trying to win best costume at the 25th annual retard reunion.

In the meantime inside of MVIS there was a subsidiary founded by two more smart fuckers, Larry Dalton and Bruce Robinson, another license deal from the HIT lab, this one called Lumera. MVIS had seen a high of $68 just like every other tech stock in March of 2000. By 2004, no products, hemorrhaging cash, they had to spin out Lumera. This was a really hot deal that brought all the big players to the table, not fucking really you morons, that is sarcasm. The well known Investment Bankers Paulson and I-Banker took LMRA public in July of 2004 raising 41.7 million and got Lumera off the MVIS payroll reducing the cash burn. At that time MVIS owned 5,434,000 shares of LMRA, they are down to 1,750,000 as Rutkowski was forced to sell this asset along the way to finance MVIS. This guy couldn't run a lemonade stand and his stupid BOD just kept letting him run this unbelievable technology into the ground. By the way, R.R. was acting president of Lumera as well, they still haven't produced shit as far as I know.

Shortly after the LMRA spinoff is when I bought my first shares of MVIS as the stock had come all the way back to $7. A friend of mine told me about the technology and I started building a position. I could see the potential in the technology, Mems scanning and retinal displays, but at the time I had no clue the place was being run by Dom Woganowski, Norman Phipps, Warren Jensen and the rest of his class mates from The School for The Truly Gifted. After building up a pretty good size position, I decided to go take a look for myself and meet management. I flew out to Seattle, very sweet town, and went to meet Mr. Rutkowski and team and check out the place. After sitting in a room for him for 45 minutes, the startling reality hit me. Holy fucking shit, I have dumped six figures into a company being run by the spawn of an Alfred E Newman-Jerry Lewis ass fucking. The following week I liquidated most of my position taking around a $2 loss. It does not matter how good your product or technology is, if you don't have the right leadership, you are screwed. I was still fascinated with the potential of the technology so I kept close tabs on MVIS. During the summer of 2005 they brought in a COO named Alexander Tokman. In February of 2006 he became CEO and MVIS was reborn. Below is some video footage of previous management's last meeting.


The beginning

First a little background on how MVIS got started. Calm down, I know the work background, as in background check, scares the shit out out of you red flagged, kiddie porn watching inbreds,but this is just a little history lesson. MVIS was founded in 1993 when two smart guys, David Hunter and Caisey Harlingten, licensed the technology from The University of Washington. There is a lab at UW called the Human Interface Technology Lab, other wise known as the HIT lab. This is a place full of smart people to which you tornado surviving fuck wits will never be invited.

Back to the two smart fuckers Hunter and Harlingten. Unfortunately they were not smart enough because in 1994 a Simon like used car salesman named Rutkowski became COO. Lets face it, the Vette' gets em Wet. In 1996 this guy became CEO and in 1997 MVIS went public. Thus Started the 9 years of futility that I refer to as 9 B.A.T., year 11 before Alexander Tokman. I can sum up Rutkowski's bull shit and inability to perform with this, In 1996 he was quoted in Fortune magazine as saying MVIS was 18 months away from a commercial product. I don't think they sold their first Nomad until six years later and that was the second dumbest product in the history of business fuck ups.

More on Rutkowski and the next 9 years in the next edition. My stomach is grumbling and the screen name calling.


I love the smell of burning MVIS shorts in the morning

Through out this weekend I will do my best to explain to you, inhabitants of the shallow end of the gene pool, dwellers in Darwin's waiting room, why The Fly is so dead on with MVIS. I am sure most of you are half way though a bottle of Ripple by now struggling with the the concept of a long weekend with your nagging wives and you Veruka Salt like children. I suggest you put mini bottles in the Easter eggs so your little brats will pass out early on Sunday

Anyway, I will attempt to give you the history of, current situation and where MVIS is headed. In the mean time, take a look at what I was saying in my office for the past three days.

Thursday, April 05, 2007


Happy Easter Fuckers

Here is a good Easter treat for you internet leeches.

By the way, the meeting went well and I behaved rather nicely.

Be sure to tune in this weekend. My "Breakfast Taco" will fucking school you.


Quick Alert: Off to Big, Fancy Meeting

While I'm gone, be sure to enjoy the run in MVIS.

I'll have you know, my servant/trader has been buying the warrants all-fucking-morning.

Also, the market looks great.

Go ahead, buy your favorite stock, you fucking guru. You're gonna tell your Grandkids about 2007's stock market gains.

Got to run.


Fly Buy: DIVX

I bought 1,000 DIVX @ $20.20.

Disclaimer: If you buy DIVX because of this post, the easter bunny will eat your cat. And, you may lose money.


Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors

While eating dinner last night, I had an epiphany. Coffee is for fucking pussies.

Why bother with all the milk, cream or sugar, when I could drink a bitter, disgusting espresso? I mean, I think all this recent coffee consumption, on my behalf, is getting in the way of trading. I find myself too busy sipping coffee, like a fucking jerkoff, instead of banging out trades.

So, from now on, coffee is fucking prohibited at my firm. That's it, I've had enough. If anyone wants caffeine, it must derive from espresso shots, energy soda or via one of those psychopath pills.

Oh, before I forget, I fucking hate BBY's geek squad. Those guy suck.

As for today's trading:

Once again, the Semi's are showing strength. However, with the long weekend ahead, I do not anticipate much upside today.

So far, ASML, NVLS, SPSN, MRVL and UCTT look good, but not for me.

Also, the dollar is a piece of shit, worthless currency. Stay long the FXE.

Finally, I hate gold. Gold is for goat herding Taliban beard fuckers. And, I want to avoid the Homies, at all costs. Everything else is a buy. A fucking buy with two hands and a propeller hat.

NOTE: If the stock God's like me, they will allow me to buy MVIS cheaper. Buy the dip.

NOTE II: I have a new weekend blogger. His name is "Breakfast Taco" and he is going to school all of you novice investors, sometime this weekend or tomorrow or whenever he gets around to it.


Asshat of the Week Award: Bob Pisani

Come on, if Bob didn't get one of these bad boy's, the "Asshat Award" would be rendered pointless-- considering Bob is fucking King of the Asshats and all.

Bob gets the award for walking around on the NYSE, while saying all sorts of retarded things.


Funniest Stock Idiot on GROW

Wednesday, April 04, 2007


Kelly Rowland: Like This


Closing Comments

You gold stock loving dicktards are going to start losing money, very soon. This recent gold run is bullshit and overdone.

Tech stocks don't go up with gold. Fuck that.

Now don't get me wrong, I am long gold, via SVG and GLD, and would like to make money on the yellow metal, but enough is enough already. Gold is for dicks. Get it?

Aside from gold, the semi's had a big day, with nice one day returns in MSCC, TRID, ONNN and SPIL.

Bottom line: Aside from pockets of weakness, everything ticked green, as the bulls continue to emasculate the sellers.

At this point in the rally, I am somewhat giddy and delirious. Normally, the market gets poleaxed, when I start acting like a dick and eating 2 inch rib eyes, every night. However, something tells me "this time is different."

Finally, if a shotgun were put to my head, in order to extract one stock pick, I'd say "go long ITRI."

NOTE: Tiny beverage company REED.ob looks somewhat fascinating. I am still doing leg work, so no recommendation thus far.


Late Day Thought

Gold stocks are for comb-over bear fuckers.


Position Updates: GMXR

This stock is ripping to the upside, despite softness in the Natty stocks today. Basically, I feel today is a gift. However, I am in the stock for the duration of the hurricane season. So, I will not sell.

By October, I suspect half the country will be destroyed by massive "global warmed" 'canes. At that point, I will be selling GMXR, and other "hurricane plays," for very expensive prices.

Good times.


Fly Buy: MVIS

I bought 2,500 MVIS @ $4.16.

Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, your local grocery store will stop selling Monster Energy Soda. And, you may lose money.


Fly's Analyst: Tip of the Day


Sector Spotlight: Gold

I'll have you know, I have an important fucking meeting to attend tomorrow. Because of this, I had to shave my newly cropped beard and get my hair trimmed. Additionally, I will be running a variety of errands today, in order to prepare for this big fucking meeting.

As you can see, "The Fly" is not fond of big important meetings. I prefer to stay in my cave and print money, while throwing left over paver's at my lazy trader/servant.

More on this later.

So far, MVIS is stomping mudholes in the shorts, up another 7%. Ha Ha!

I told you goat fuckers to go long, and some of you did. Good for you.

Just know this: The run is not over, not even close. If you are patient, this puppy will print $7-8. At that point, I will be so fucking rich; I might buy a few fucking cows, in order to kill them and produce some fresh rib eyes. However, I am not sure how my neighbor's will feel about my cow eating their front lawn. I'll tell them to "fuck off" and to enjoy the free landscaping, maybe.

Also, I see Gold and Silver gapping higher. Right now, GROW and SA are on fire. However, I'd sell any overweight Gold position, right now. Gold is too high and will fall.

Finally, I like the market here and will deploy new money on dips. Into momentum, I will add to my GD, GMXR and ITRI positions.

Being up 15%+, with 3 quarters left, is a great position to be in. I intend on keeping my gains and protecting them, if needed.

Tuesday, April 03, 2007


Technical Analysis on MVIS

Courtesy of AlphaTrends

This man starts making a whole lot of sense by 3:55 into the video.


Smile Empty Soul: Here's to Another


Closing Comments

A very good day, indeed, for the one who calls himself "The Fly." In all, "The Fly" was up more than 2%, with bottle rocket gains in NYX, FMCN, BWLD, RIMM, GILD and MVIS.

By the way, MVIS is going much, much higher.

Basically, today's gains have emboldened "The Fly" to spit at the shorts and eat large quantities of chicken wings,while guzzling more "rich man's whiskey."

In closing, I don't have time to entertain fucktards on the internets, despite my 10 fucking posts per day.

Just know this:

"The Fly" will spend the remainder of his evening eating a 2 inch thick rib eye (medium rare, crusted top), while rapidly consuming his favorite bottles of Bordeaux.



Quick Alert: Fly's Analyst Makes Prediction for MVIS Shorts


Position Updates: MVIS


: Microvision-MVIS: Technical Alert: Bullish Patterns
We don't see news to explain the +5% move today in the name but there are some positive potential patterns that bear watching. The first is on the daily chart in the form of a bullish cup and handle. The pattern is in progress ("handle" now at second peak) and needs to break $4.10 to enter the final leg. The objective looks to be in the $5.50 area. That is a huge move for the name, so bear in mind it will likely take something positive on the fundamental front as a catalyst to get it there. The second bullish pattern is a potential bullish (inverted) head and shoulders on the weekly chart. The breakout is the same as the cup and handle since the handle is in fact the right "shoulder" of the pattern. On a breakout above $4.10, the objective looks to be to the $6.50-$7 area. Again, that isn't likely to happen on pure technicals alone. The tricky part when dealing with the single-digit stocks is setting a stop since even a 20c move can mean 5% or more. The $3.60 area today would be that stop. On a breakdown below that level, the patterns would be invalid. NOTE: Shares are short-sale restricted, 9.78 days to cover, 639K 10-day average volume. A squeeze is a higher than average risk.


Fly Buy: MVISW

I bought 10,000 MVISW @ $1.85.

UPDATE: I bought another 10,000 MVISW @ $1.85.

Disclaimer: If you buy MVISW because of this post, the next time you spend the night with a lady friend, you will wet the bed. And, you may lose money.


Fly's Analyst: Tip of the Day


Position Updates: ITRI

Instead of buying an old staid Utility stock, I'd rather own an equipment supplier, like ITRI.

As you know, I don't have time to fuck around and give a detailed explanation, as to why ITRI rocks. However, I will say, ITRI is helping the Utilities take more of you hard earned money.

They make wireless meters that enable the "meter reader-fucker" to collect data, from more than 40 meters away. Aside from that, they do lots of other stuff, which I do not care to discuss with you-- at this present time.

Just know this:

The Utilities will get you. They will take your money, else you will freeze to death or die from lack of water. ITRI helps your local utility kill you or collect vast sums of dollars. Hence, it makes sense to go long the stock.

Plus, with the wireless meter reading technology, the Utilities get to fire a whole bunch of "meter reader-fuckers," while collecting more money from its customers.

A double win, indeed.


Sector Spotlight: Internet

I've been slapped in the face by a Chinese milk company, ADY. Talk about overreaction. This fucking stock is cratering, as if they just filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy. Undoubtedly, it's a buy.

So far, everything but oil is gapping higher. Due to the Iranian situation cooling down, oil is lower and Airlines are screaming higher. Fuck the Airlines. You buy them, not me.

The Internets are on fire, with big dicked gains in GOOG, TFSM, GOAM, SRVY, LQDT and CMGI.

Also, my favorite tech sector, the Networkers, are engulfed in blue flames, with over sized gains in LMRA, EXFO, FFIV, DIVX and ONT.

Bottom line: I am leveraging myself to this run. I do not think it is over and feel like taking on more risk.

NOTE: Tale of two cities between the Russian dairy play, WBD, and my God forsaken ADY.

NOTE II: Please take the new "Fly Survey." Are you bullish or bearish on the markets?

Monday, April 02, 2007


BREAKING NEWS: Kidstock Wins; But Still Gets Fired

Wow, in a weird twist of irony and internet bullshit, Kidstock did the impossible, thanks to last minute Asian voters, and won the "election"-- but still gets the shitcan.

For some reason, Kidstock did not have faith in "internet democracy." Thus, he fired himself. Then, due to violating Fly's weekend blogging rule (he posted on a weekday), he was fired-- yet again.

In total, Kidstock was fired twice, and won the election-- all in one night's fucktarded work.

Truly, an amazing feat.

Final Tally:

46% (45)
54% (53)

Whoever is interested in a weekend blogging position, while testing the limits of "internet democracy," please email me at my earliest convenience.



Tough crowd to is apparent that nobody should take the other side of The Fly.

However, before you fucks get a chance to exercise your ability to determine my fate, I am going to quit. You can all go fuck a goat -- especially Richard.


Polls Close at 12am, NYC Time

As of now, Kidstock will join the ranks of Woodshedder and "The Ducati," as 54% of you feel he is "shitcan" worthy.

Hopefully, Kidstock has more friends in Asia, than Ducati.

To vote, click yes or no on the sidebar poll-- labeled "Fly Survey," you fucking idiots.



DMX: Ruff Riders Anthem


Closing Comments

Once again, as usual, I had a big day.Today, I enjoyed big gains in BWLD, HANS, CENX, FMCN, MVIS, FDC, FXI and Kidstock's short GMRK. In total, I was up .55% today.

Basically, the market is continuing its melt up and will likely advance, dramatically, over the next 6 weeks, before a pullback.

During this run, I want to be overweight the Utilities, Industrials and select Metal stocks.

During today's trading, the Utilities led the advance, with big gains in PEG, EGN, GAS, PPL and TGS, amongst many others.

Also, Commodity related stocks, pressed the iron on the sellers' necks again, with "fuck you shorts, you're dead" gains in CLF, ATI, DYN, PKD, GLBL, BMD and MIND.

In short, I want to hold onto my winners and cut loose the laggards. In a fast market, I don't have time to fuck around with boring stocks, like TELOZ (which got fucking poleaxed today!). Nice call, Ducati.

I want to make money now and spend it on a variety of fucked up things, like "illegal Mexicans," cigars and rich man's whiskey.

Fuck you very much.


Fly Buy: ITRI

I bought 1,000 ITRI @ $64.95.

Disclaimer: If you buy ITRI because of this post, the next time you take a bath, the toaster may fall into the water. And, you may lose money.


Quick Alert: Fly's Restaurant Analyst Confronts BWLD Short Seller

Dance, bitch, dance.


April Seasonality Report

Did you know QCOM has been up 16 straight years in March? That's right, 16-0!

Well, of course you didn't know QCOM was up 16 straight years in March. You were probably too busy playing with your moving averages to do any "real" research. Lazy "cow-milkers."

Anyway, next to throwing lunch meat at my servant/trader, seasonality reports make "The Fly" incredibly happy.

Some of the standouts in April are DGX (10-0), KEX (18-3) and ITT (10-1).

Bottom line: April is not a big Tech month. The Industrials tend to outperform in April. If you recall, I told you March was a big oil month. Since then, Oil stocks have exploded to the upside. Seasonality reports never lie.

Here is a short version of April's Seasonality Report:

April's Seasonality Report


UPDATE: 2006 New High/Low List

If you recall, I monitor the 52 week high/low list like a fucking vulture in the desert. Furthermore, at the end of 2006, I shared my lists with you retards.

Well, over the last quarter, some interesting trends have developed. One thing that stands out is how well the 52 week low list is doing, so far.

The stocks highlighted in green are up 10%+, YTD.

2006 52 week high list

2006 52 week low list


April Fools Day and the Important Matter of Kidstock

Full Disclosure: I am long GMRK in real life and the CNBC Challenge.

How could I not hold "elections" when GMRK is fucking screaming to the upside? Clearly, there was something fucked up in Kidstock's koolaid and charts.

Now don't get me wrong, I like his "balls on the table" approach, but in a true "internet democracy" -- the people shall have the final word.

I know one or two of you might say "gee, dick, that's fucked up. You said there would be no "elections." To them I say: "ha, ha, April Fools day, Mr. Goat Fucker."


NOTE: Please take the new "Fly Survey." Should I fire Kidstock?

Sunday, April 01, 2007


No Elections; Kidstock Lives

Despite retarded posts, such as "Gone Fishing," "The Fly" has decided to "employ" Kidstock for one more week, mainly due to my pleasant mood.

In regards to his content, I would like to see oil knife lower too, despite my numerous oil holdings. I feel lower oil will result in higher equity prices. And, I fucking loathe all of those "peak oil" hatfuckers, who gladly welcome war with Iran-- just so that oil can move up a few bucks.

In closing, good job Kidstock and get ready for week two, here on Fly's blog plantation.

NOTE: Should oil or GMRK move higher this week, special "elections" may be held, with regards to the weekend blogging "job."


Sunday Short Strategy

click on chart to enlarge
The final post this weekend will outline a strategy for my other short idea in the oil arena. Today's candidate is GulfMark (43.65). GMRK made an all-time high two weeks ago and since has proceeded to carve out an "M" type of topping formation (beige trend lines). This week's retest resulted in a lower high on tepid volume (red arrow). Similar to VLO, this stock has been in a strong uptrend since early January. A move below 43.5 will invite the trend followers to take profits in light of the completed "M" top formation and declining volume pattern (purple trend line). I would recommend shorting all the way up to 46 with a downside target of 33.50 providing another 4:1 risk to reward trading scenario.
As you can see my ideas are based purely on technical tells. It is humorous to hear many of you passionately argue the perils of shorting oil to which I say "take off the g-string you pussies". I could care less what the risk of trading the underlying entity is or the current market psychology, my goal is to correctly assess the supply:demand situation for the equity while exposing my capital to a limited risk and ample reward setup. Thank you for your input and taking time to post your comments this weekend. I would have never known that 'Oil Barrel Bolling' is short oil since I make a conscious effort to not watch CNBC and have yet to watch an entire episode of that show. Be sure to check out my blog later today to help develop the thesis on my Fat Bastard pick.
UPDATE: The Fat Bastard pick has been posted on my blog. Check it out and be sure to share any relevant insights.

Heading out on the lake with my pal Bub. Hopefully the motor will start this time. Check back later today for my final pick in the oil patch.

UPDATE: Anybody know any "illegal Mexicans" that do small engine repair? Guess we will have to start on the homemade vino instead... As my friend Pat says "you can't drink all day if you don't start in the morning."

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DISCLAIMER: This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any FINRA broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.