Saturday, March 24, 2007
BHP ......"The Big Aussie"
While I would not disagree on the ability of BHP to survive any cyclical downturns in the future, currently you are paying quite over the odds for the shares.
For my second, out of three posts for the weekend slot, I thought we could take a quick look at this iconic Aussie resouce business as it has been in the news recently being touted as a possible acquirer of Alcoa, and currently involved in a large share repurchase program.
Market Capitalization: 360B
Price / Earnings: 15.6
Price / Book: 5.2
Net Profit Margin 16.7%
Price To Free Cash Flow -87.0
Return on Equity: 32.6%
Total Debt / Equity: 0.5
Dividend Yield: 1.5%
Resources, commodity prices have been at historic highs just recently. With prices for the producers of commodities currently so high we must take into account the “cyclical” nature of the businesses involved.
We must ascertain whether the P/E ratio is derived from high earnings due to high prices received for production, or, a low purchase price available for the aggregate earnings over a number of business cycles.
To date the earnings have risen on high prices, and this has already more than been reflected within the prices asked for within the industry. This can further be illustrated within the low current dividend yield.
Purchasing this industry implies continued growth within China & other developing nations.
Is this current growth rate sustainable?
There will be many opinions upon that crucial question, but, the answers are all speculative, and if wrong, could find a very nasty correction in the prices of resource stocks. This has already happened in May, and currently the question remains, after the correction, have the prices become cheap, or undervalued?
The unequivocal answer is no. They are still as a sector overvalued.
The Capitalization structure of BHP is an unqualified good.
The debt, constituting both funded debt & Bank debt is a very small component of the Capitalization.
Further, the Pension & Operating Leases component is currently showing a surplus from my estimations.
Revenue Per Share 10.64
Qtrly Revenue Growth 9.70%
Gross Profit 10.09B
Net Income to Common 7.80B
Diluted EPS 2.56
Qtrly Earnings Growth 55.10%
The coverage of Interest payments is excellent, and poses little risk to holders of debt, or of equity.
We can see the result of the current high prices of commodities reflected within the two ratios of “revenue growth” and “earnings growth”.
A 9.70% growth in Revenue, contrasted with a 55.1% growth in Earnings. Should commodity prices weaken, and commodity prices are very cyclical, we would see a significant shrinkage within earnings as a result, with a concurrent shrinkage in Revenues.
Due to the lack of leverage within the Balance Sheet, and the high percentage of Common, the expectation would be for a low volatility within the share price. This until just recently was the case. It has not been the case over the past two years.
There has also been a significant improvement to net profit due to a reduction in production costs, quite possibly due to economies of scale. There has additionally been a significant improvement within Selling General & Administration, costs falling. These are both positives, but sustainability is a concern.
Total Cash 1.65B
Total Cash Per Share 0.546
Total Debt 10.47B
Total Debt/Equity 0.495
Current Ratio 1.092
Book Value Per Share 6.98
Cash is lower currently than one would like to see. This in of itself is not a major problem, as of course the ability to borrow cash would be forthcoming, and undoubtedly, BHP, would have a credit revolver available.
The Current Ratio however is not high enough to qualify BHP as “Investment Grade” currently.
Inventory & Receivables display no red flags, and pass muster.
The collections of Receivables is possibly a little low, but is consistent, this would need to be monitored.
BHP however does not pass muster on the return generated on assets. With the current high prices that are being paid for commodities, a return of $0.97 on each invested $1.00 is indicative of a low return business.
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow 10.04B
Levered Free Cash Flow 8.27B
Cash-flow analysis throws up some interesting areas.
Depreciation is the problem child. As a percentage of Revenues, Depreciation has fallen from an aggregate of 8.9% to 6.6%. This will after Tax, flow to the bottom line, improving net profit growth, this is some $0.13 cents per share.
Capital Expenditures have fallen quite significantly, some $0.77 per share from the aggregate.
Depreciation compared to Capital Expenditures has also decreased.
Depreciation to Cash from Operations……..fallen.
Depreciation as a percentage of Net Assets………..fallen
What we are left with does not look confidence inspiring currently, especially as we are not even purchasing a bargain, thus we have no margin of safety.
We have reduced Capital Expenditures, thus pumping up net profits.
We have reduced Depreciation being charged against Net Assets, pumping up profits.
In short, there may very well be reduced investment, or more importantly reduced, or inadequate spending on maintenance to pump up earnings.
Examination from a different perspective reveals nothing that allays any concerns.
%growth in Capital Expenditures = 30.7%
%growth in Plant Property & Equipment = 24.3%
%growth in Depreciation = 9.8%
When we compare this to the following;
%growth in Revenues = 22.8%
%growth in Gross Profits = 34.3%
It would seem that the Depreciation charge is being inappropriately rated. This is always a red flag, and may pose problems further down the road. At current prices, it is certainly enough of a question to apply prudence to the investment decision.
The Depreciation or Depletion charge carries an extra importance within the purchase of the common stock of a resources business. The Depreciation charged by the business cannot be the depreciation charge utilized by the individual investor, as of course, the business charges depletion at purchase price, and so must the investor.
Utilizing a pessimistic outlook, and diminishing productive capacity after seven years, the investors return would calculate to 4.5%. This is inadequate, and provides no margin of safety at all.
Utilizing a generous twenty years on productive capacity, we still have only a 6.7% return. For this return, a lot of things would need to move in the investors favor.
Looking at hidden Cash-flows we can identify a discretionary Cash-flow of $295.9 million, or $0.09 per share within Selling General & Administration. This in of itself is generally a positive, as these cash-flows may well be available to the business in harder business cycles.
There is however a discretionary Cash-flow within Capital Expenditures also, calculated to be approximately $593.8 million, or $0.19 per share. Under the present question marks present regarding the Depreciation charge, I am not willing to look at this as a positive, if; in point of fact maintenance spending has suffered.
BHP is considered a “Blue Chip” business, or share. In my opinion, the business is profitable, but has a very low return. It has some serious question marks in regards to the Depreciation charges and related questions regarding the outcome of Capital Expenditure spending.
At the current price, it is too expensive, and returns accruing to the investor, purchased at these prices will reside almost entirely on speculative outcomes. Will commodity prices remain at 25 year highs? Will China & other developing nations continue their extreme growth rates?
jog on chaps
Friday, March 23, 2007
The title should alert you to the fact that we will start this weekend briefly examining the previously floated investment theme from Mr Fly; "Be long the adipose challenged consumer"
We are of course going to briefly discuss why this could in point of fact be a stroke of genius [no pun intended] and why it might save an otherwise go-go stock, I refer of course to BWLD
First, obesity is a disease, that is hallmarked by addiction, depression, poor self worth and esteem that finds solace in eating, thus chemically inducing the pleasure areas of the brain. [Limbic hippocampal region]
Thus, any product that provides the desired pleasure, will in all likelihood gain great loyalty from the consumer base.
A second and as important factor is the cult of cool. Is this product a product that invokes the correct responses from your [the consumer] peer group.
Having never heard of BWLD, never mind eaten them these are questions that I cannot answer. It is important for any individual investor to have, or gain a viewpoint, as this could prove quite vital to the ultimate success of the investment.
Moving swiftly on to the Industry.
The Industry is Restaurants
Net Profit margin...............8.0
Some of these metrics are relevant to BWLD and some are not. Be warned in advance BWLD is a growth or go-go stock, it has very aggressive accounting. The success or failure in the accounting will have a large impact within the final outcome in market price.
The Debt/Equity ratio within the industry is high. Compared to BWLD it is massively high. In 2003 BWLD retired a tranche of debt via an equity placing. Why did this occur?
The cost of capital in 2003 at the tailend of the recession was almost free money, the Fed discount rate was at circa 1.0% and corporate debt would have been around 3.0%, why in that environment deleverage and take expensive equity capital?
The answer is that the company holds an extraordinary level of cash, some $64.6million, while the working capital requirements are a fraction of that. We are talking say $5million in cash would just about squeeze by.
The reason is that there is an interest income that flows directly to the bottom line, boosting Net Profits. Further, the small amount of long term debt held by the company at $9.5million, the interest payments are capitalized. Not really for any other reason other than again boosting the bottom line. It is not illegal, but it is aggressive.
The industry pays a dividend, BWLD does not. Again, growth of Net Profits is key. They must continue to grow, and thus higher multiples will be awarded to the stock. Net Profits have grown, +40% annualised but this is a high hurdle to keep clearing
Depreciation is being accelerated for tax purposes, but not being disclosed in a forthright manner in the Income Statement, again aggressive.
A number of Operating costs are being capitalised, costs from Selling,General & Administration, again, aggressive, borderline legality issues with growth in Revenues [+24.5%] on an annulised basis far higher than SG&A [+17.1%]
The very high Capital Expenditures in relation to Depreciation charges will tend to overstate the cash generating ability of the business. [1.63]
Therefore we return to the necessity of loyal customers. In any economic downturn that might crimp Revenues, it is vital for a go-go stock to maintain earnings growth, without which the market might re-value the shares in short order.
Last point, the "Insiders" have been heavily selling stock, unloading circa $3million in stock, worth thinking about.
jog on chaps
Mobb Deep: Shook Ones
Now, from time to time, I will get poleaxed and regret being such a fucktarded gun slinger. However, during this bull run, I have come to the conclusion that I am unbreakable. That's right.
Frankly, my contacts, coupled with my "calculator brain" are too good for most of you retards to comprehend. I know, most of you turn on your screen every morning, without knowing what Mother Market will bring for you-- during the rest of the day. I know what the bitch is doing.
She is making me more money, while punching you in the nose.
Following such a great week, I respectfully decline to "educate" you any further, as to what looks good and why.
Finally, make sure to visit this fucktarded blog this weekend. My new weekend blogger will educated you, beyond belief.
NOTE: How about my IOC?
Late Day Thought
Quick Alert: MVIS Naked Short Taking Hooks
After having his face punched in today, he said he will cover tomorrow (saturday).
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, your favorite oatmeal bowl will suddenly vanish. And, you may lose money.
Position Updates: ALCO
In short, I have no fucking clue where the stock is heading. Nonetheless, it is making me happy.
Quick Alert: Giant Bowl of Oatmeal
Fly Buy: CLWR
Disclaimer: If you buy CLWR because of this post, Blackstone will not come public. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: CENX
Quick Alert: Just Ate Giant Brownie
Opening 2nd blue Monster of the day.
Fly Sell: NYX
Fly Buy: PNRA
Disclaimer: If you buy PNRA because of this post, then your farm will be destroyed by a stampede of wild buffalo. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: BWLD
Disclaimer: If you buy BWLD because of this post, your personal chef will over cook tonight's main dish. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: DIVX
Disclaimer: If you buy DIVX because of this post, your car will run out of gas on the expressway. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Networkers
Nonetheless, because of his "calculator-like brain," I have "hired" him to work here, free of charge.
Also, it's worth noting, old people music week ends today. As you know, I have been placating the ancient folk, with songs that reminded them of their youth. Sorry old man, no more music for you.
As for today's trading:
DIVX is on fucking fire. That's right, keep betting against me. Next thing you know, some homeless guy is lending you a spoon, in order to shovel some soup into your "piehole." Also, BWLD, CENX, NYX and SU look great.
The likelihood of a big move in the market today is slim. Frankly, the weather is too nice in NYC, to fuck around with idiots on the NYSE. However, as always, I think the market is a buy-- and would continue positioning into quality names.
Aside from Energy related stocks, the Networkers are outperforming. Today, I like LNOP, DIVX, PWER and HLIT.
Finally, does WFR ever go down?
Asshat of the Week Award: Dennis Gartman
Anyway, now that the markets are back to ripping the throats out of the bear-fuckers, I'd thought it would make sense to give one of these "Asshat Awards" (I have to get these fucking things out the door) to a man who embarrassed himself, family and Eric "the oil barrel" Bolling (Eric invited Dennis to the show) by declaring the end of the global bull market, as we know it, because it was down a few percentage points from the top.
I am sure Dennis has other stuff going on, like news letters and accurate market calls, but I'm not interested. All that matters to me is his declarative statement "global bear market," coupled with his fucktarded looking tie. In my opinion, both are unacceptable. Hence, the "Asshat Award."
Watch recent video of Dennis look "Asshattish" as the market fucking rolls on him.
Thursday, March 22, 2007
John Lennon: God
Generally, the market posted a consolidation day. The Energy sector was on fire, with outsized gains in FSLR, PKD, GSX, GMXR, BMD and ALJ.
I am starting to do some due diligence on BBA. I know, it is a bullshit store, with a bullshit stock price. However, they are trying to turn it around.
Finally, my HANS punched the noses off of those who bet against it. Don't you get it, you fucking faggots? HANS is your Grand Daddy's KO.
Within the year, I am sure Howard from Wallstrip will be doing a show on HANS-- as the fucking stock rips to new highs, effectively making Cramer and Herb look like the "noodle twisting" "knuckle fuckers" they are.
NOTE: Watch Fast Money tonight-- you fucking goat-fuckers. I understand Wallstrip's interview (yet to be broadcasted) with Dylan Ratigan will be previewed-- during tonight's show.
Late Day Thought
The CNBC Challenge is Manipulating Stocks
This piece of shit was dead in the dirt, prior to the challenge.
It is one of the only low priced stocks in the challenge and is a fucktarded company. Nonetheless, it is on fucking fire.
Good job CNBC.
Quick Alert: Fly's Analyst Pounds "Crazy" HANS Short
Apparently, the HANS short knows what he is doing. My analyst begs to differ.
UPDATE: My analyst says he is "not breathing heavy."
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, the next time you visit the Dentist, he will accidentally knock your teeth out. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Energy
Today, the stock God's are blessing me, with green in my longs and bloody red in my shorts. Both ATHR and BRCM (my only shorts) are getting "machine gunned." Because of Mother Markets grace and generosity, I will "sacrifice" 10 goats and make my servant/trader dress as a monk-- for 2 weeks.
My FMCN is fucking exploding. I like the Chinese stocks and feel communism is cool, only when it allows my fucking stocks to go up. Also, it's worth noting, the Energy sector is on fire.
I am sure Eric "the oil barrel" Bolling is having a "field day" with oil trading higher today. With my money, I like IOC, GMXR, SU, UPL, VLO and maybe NGAS.
Finally, I am pretty sure the Jefferies analyst, who downgraded BWLD yesterday, will receive one of my "Asshat Awards." In case you didn't know, BWLD is a fucking buy, all the way to $100.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Register Your MVIS Shares Here
Bob Marley: Jammin'
Closing Comments: Fuck You Shorts, You're Dead
Despite Bob Pasani and Co. trying to talk down the markets, it fucking ripped the spines out of the bears and flushed their stupid heads down dirty toilet bowls.
I must say, today was a lot of fun. I had all sorts of "smart people" call me up, whining about their shorts getting "knuckle fucked."
Today, I bought more stock. Then after I bought stock, I bought more. I didn't sell shit and I was up 2.5%, bitches.
"The Fly" will enjoy the rest of his evening, devouring a 2 inch thick rib eye steak, with 2 high end bottles of his favourite (European version of the word "favorite" used intentionally to demonstrate "The Fly's" extensive vocabulary versatility) Bordeaux.
Everything from AAPL to NYX to DIVX (bought at the low) to ADBE did great.
In short, don't fight the tape. The bears lost, because they are old, stupid and skinny.
Tomorrow, I will buy the morning dip and make even more money.
If a shotgun were put to my head, in order to extract one stock pick, I'd say go long FMCN.
Quick Alert: I'm Making a Tremendous Amount of Money
I am back to using the 3rd person format, when writing to you fucktards.
"The Fly" likes to use the 3rd person.
Fly Buy: DIVX
Disclaimer: If you buy DIVX because of this post, you may go to prison for downloading free movies on the internet. And, you may lose money.
Position Updates: FMCN
Right now, my favorite is ADY. However, it is too illiquid to trade. I am holding for the long term reward. Also, I like FMCN here. They make billboard signs in China. Who's better than them?
Position Updates: NYX
In your face oil-barrel-boy.
Holy Shit: Free Coffee
They are fucking giving the iced coffee away. I know, it's a fucked up business plan and if the stock were publicly traded, I'd short the beans out of it. But, it's not. So who cares?
Even though I can buy 20,000 iced coffee's with my "carrying around money," I love free stuff. It makes me feel like a smart consumer.
So, right now, I am double fisted with coffee. In one hand, I have the free iced coffee. And, in the other, I have a scolding hot coffee-- which I purchased as a sign of good will. Plus, I left the "coffee slaves," over at Dunkin', a 75 cent tip.
In all, this free coffee only cost me 2 bucks. A great deal, indeed.
Quick Alert: Metals on Fire
Big gains can be found in: ZEUS, TONS, IIIN, X, RTP and CLF.
My favorite, CENX, is down. Naturally, I feel it is a buy, especially when the sector is on fire.
Regarding my recent purchase of IOC:
Great oil story. I believe they will be releasing some data, regarding their projects, within the next month.
Fly Buy: IOC
Disclaimer: If you buy IOC because of this post, your favorite wine will turn to vinegar, upon consumption. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Software
Not only did LNN disappoint, but BWLD caught a downgrade and MVIS filed a fucking monster shelf offering.
Trust me when I say, this is the natural order of things.
There is no fucking way the company would raise so much money, without knowing they will start producing PicoP products soon. I know, at first glance, you may think: "what the fuck, are they fucktardingly nuts" or "boy, do I feel like the fat bitch at the end of the bar." But, the company had to raise money-- why not now?
Just the fact that they are able to raise so much money should speak volumes. Institutions will be supporting this deal and will help this company get product to market.
Trust me, if this company was for the birds, no one would sponsor such a deal.
As for BWLD:
Fuck you Jefferies. You will pay for your disobedience, downgrading BWLD during the second holocaust of the chicken. I sense an "Asshat Award" may be in store for the Jefferies analyst.
As for LNN:
I deserve this poleax, for being such an arrogant prick. It is my punishment and I humbly accept it.
Generally, the market looks a little soft. I suspect the market will go nowhere fast today, as investors jockey for position.
The Software sector is up, thanks to ORCL and ADBE.
The Brokers are up, thanks to MS.
In short, it makes sense to stay long and buy the dips. Hopefully, BWLD will come down, below $55, so that I may buy more.
Position Updates: BWLD, LNN, ADBE, MVIS
We may have an "Asshat Award" winner:
Downgrades: Jefferies downgrades Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD 60.05) to Hold from Buy and maintain their $67 tgt, based on valuation.
|08:03||LNN Lindsay Manu reports Q2 (33.80 )|
|Reports EPS of $0.21, includes acquisitions, may not be comparable to $0.29 two analyst estimate; reports revs up 16% yr/yr to $63.7 mln vs $61.18 two analyst estimate. Co says, "Our focus on improving irrigation margins has favorably impacted results in the period and we remain focused on operational efficiency as we implement lean manufacturing techniques in our factories. We continue to execute our balanced approach to creating shareholder value through organic growth opportunities, accretive acquisitions, share repurchases, and dividend payments."|
|07:32||ADBE Adobe Systems: Color on quarter (40.74 )|
|W.R. Hambrecht notes ADBE reported somewhat mixed 1Q07 results. Total revs of $649.4 mln were below Street expectations of $655 mln, but EPS of $0.30 was a penny ahead of consensus. They were not completely surprised to see rev come in below expectations, given the impending expected launch of CS3 in 2Q07. Looking forward to 2Q07, and into FY07 mgmt provided guidance that was essentially in line with consensus expectations, and also reiterated its expectation of 15% Y/Y growth for FY07. Firm maintains their rev est of $3 bln, but are slightly raising their EPS est to $1.52 (vs. $1.46 previously). Firm raises their tgt to $46 from $44... Jefferies says ADBE got through the toughest quarter in FY07 with flying colors and appears set to enjoy accelerating growth due to the CS3 product cycle and the growing importance of other areas (such as Mobile and Rich Internet Application development). Firm notes the co achieved in-line rev of $649 mln, -1% Y/Y, and EPS of $0.30, a penny ahead of firm's and consensus forecasts. They recommend investors Buy ADBE, as they believe they are entering a period of upward EPS revisions, based on the CS3 product cycle.|
Filings: Microvision (MVIS) files for a $35 mln mixed shelf offering, also files for a 13.43 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders.More on this^ later.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Cat Stevens: Father and Son
As you know, I nailed ADBE. The stock is ripping the after hours to shreds. Also, tomorrow morning, I will demonstrate why my "calculator brain" is better than yours, via LNN.
Today, I had another big day, up 1.2%-- effectively putting my YTD return over 8%.
Face it, betting against me makes little to no sense. My CENX, BWLD, NTRI, MVIS, HANS, NYX, and many other positions, are all exploding to the upside. Again, I am fucking King of the stock market.
Finally, it's worth noting, my sudden surge of confidence, coupled with extreme hubris, is probably going to wind up biting me--big time. Good times never last. I rent good times, and generally fight and claw my way to the mountain top.
However, something tells me, "this time is different."
Off to drink some "rich man's whiskey."
NOTE: I am hearing IOC may continue to trade up. It is a random tip, so be careful.
Position Updates: ADBE, LNN
Tomorrow morning LNN is reporting. I am uber confident they will fucking blow the doors off the estimate. They sell irrigation equipment to the oil fuckers, for Christ's sake.
I am content, long ADBE and LNN.
Why the Market will Trade Higher
Every week I post a "Fly Survey," in order to get your opinion on the markets, oil, gold, etc. Trust me when I say, you (the sheeple) are always wrong, 100% of the time.
Somehow, this retarded blog of mine has attracted some of the worst investors in the world. I am proud of that.
For example, right before the market topped, three weeks ago, 75% of you were bullish. Completely wrong. Now that the market has somewhat rebounded, 63% of you guru's are bearish.
It's like taking candy from a retarded monkey. No brainer.
Go long and bet against your best judgment.
Fly Buy: CORS
Disclaimer: If you buy CORS because of this post, you may spill hamburger grease on your favorite tie. And, you may lose money.
Update on Asshat
Nice earnings warning, dicks.
Now, get out of my country, you earnings missing/tax savers.
Quick Alert: Fly's Metal Analyst Destroys CENX Short
Keep betting against me. I'm the best!
Quick Alert: Iced Coffee on the Front Burner
I repeat, the seasonal switch from hot to iced has taken place.
Sector Spotlight: Gold
Short answer: Everything.
For years, I have been attempting to grow a beard, but my wife always talks me into shaving it. She says, "you look like an idiot, shave it now" or "only crazy people have beards."
Frankly, I don't know why I want to grow unnecessary facial hair. Maybe it's because I have always been clean shaven and this is my way of being a "rebel" or "going off the deep end." It's not like I am going Taliban or anything. I think it will make me stronger. I'm gonna do it.
First, let me say and warn the fuckers at MVIS, you better not make me look bad. I see the stock is down this morning and it appears to be losing steam. That shit is unacceptable. This stock has to go up now and fast, so get to it (I really don't know who I am talking to, just ranting at this point).
As for today's trading:
It looks like another green day for the markets. Apparently, the shorts have had their dicks cut off and are now running away from risk. In other words, they are covering their shorts. It's a conspiracy theory, I know. But, I think it's real, so I will continue to repeat it.
Today's top performers are Gold and Silver stocks. Frankly, I am bored of Gold and all of its asshole promoters. I am sick of Eric "the oil barrel" Bolling pitching commodity related stocks, ad nauseam, on Fast Money-- every fucking night. Enough already! Tell us something we don't already know.
With my money, I want to keep buying BWLD, NTRI, CENX, ADY, HANS, EQIX, DIVX, MVIS, NYX and maybe CLWR. Go ahead, bet against me. See where it gets you.
Finally, it's worth noting, CCC goes up everyday. I shouldn't have sold it at $5.50. And, I think JSDA is ridiculously overvalued. Moreover, their soda pop is disgusting. I spit on JSDA.
Long live HANS.
Monday, March 19, 2007
Funniest Stock Idiot Ever!
He is exactly like your typical Wall Street broker. I love this guy.
Hat tip GetShort.
Nelly: Country Grammar
Amongst my positions, I was most impressed with AAPL, BWLD, DNA, ADBE, FXI, ALCO, EQIX, GLBC, SU and NYX.
I know many of you hatfuckers will say "well, the volume was simply too light to mean anything." To them, I say: "enjoy your light volume tax loss, fucktard."
Also, I witnessed big moves in speculative small cap stocks, like BVSN, TXCC and ONT, amongst many others. At times, I am afraid to go long, while the small cap fuckers are running. Typically, the speculative names run prior to a market top. However, after a market decline, I view the run in small cap names as healthy. It means investors are bringing their balls to the desk and are not afraid to bet on a long shot.
Bottom line: Ignore the weakness in the Semi's, the market has bottomed.
Finally, should the market decline, over the next few days, I want to use any dip to add to existing positions. And, I will be covering my ATHR and BRCM shorts, whenever I fucking feel like doing it.
Off to fix my fucking house.
NOTE: Just because HANS was down today doesn't mean it will not punch your teeth out tomorrow.
Quick Alert: Disgusting Coffee
Back to work, fig-face.
Quick Alert: Fly's Analyst Puts Fear in BWLD Short Seller
Don't fuck with his positions.
MVIS shorts are next.
Position Updates: BWLD, MVIS
I am long BWLD for the duration. As many of you know, it is my single best idea of 2007. That doesn't mean other stocks like MVIS or DIVX can't outperform. It just means, it is a no brainer-- in my "calculator brain." Not yours. You are too stupid.
Right here, right now, MVIS is a screaming buy.
Get back to me in two weeks and thank me for these picks.
NOTE: Yes, I still own DNA and GILD. They are my favorite pharma plays. And, I do not own AMGN, for they suck moose balls.
Fly Buy: ADY
Disclaimer: If you buy ADY because of this post, large sewer rats will inhabit your house. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, global warming will destroy the Earth. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Industrials
Right now, I am watching the Industrials (not the DOW) very closely. Once the big or small Industrial companies break out, the shorts will run for their lives.
One of my favorite new positions, LNN, looks great and is poised to move higher, as the oil money in the Middle East goes towards infrastructure projects. LNN makes irrigation equipment.
Also, I like the action in PEC, AIR, UIC, FWLT, BHP, CAT and ASEI.
Within Financials, pretty much everything is up 1.5%.
Food and Beverage stocks are up nicely, with big gains in JSDA, ZTM, DRI and BWLD.
As usual, Energy stocks are higher, with notable gains in ROSE, AMSC, BEXP, NEU and FSLR.
Bottom line: Stocks are going higher.
Aside from stocks, I am busy trying to repair my fucking house.
Over the weekend, in between my drunken stupor, the fucking psychotic NYC weather nearly blew my house away. As a result, the roofing and gutters on my house needs repair. To make matters worse, my regular "illegal Mexicans" are nowhere to be found. I don't know if the fuckers have been deported or on siesta. Moreover, I have 10 inch nails whipping all over the fucking neighborhood, from the top of my house, and the icy sidewalk conditions doesn't help.
It's like WWII near my house, minus the German fuckers shooting their pistols and machine guns.
NOTE: Please take the new "Fly Survey." Are you bullish or bearish on the markets?
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Breaking News: Fly "Lays off" its only Employee
As many of you know, I don't have time for lazy men or bad work habits, amongst the people I "employ." Therefore, I must "shitcan" Mr. Woodshedder, without severance.
Although, I was pleased with his "work performance," while employed by FlyonWallstreet. Clearly, he did not have the "internal fortitude" to remain employed-- by such a prestigious website.
I'll have you know, I have e-mailed Woodshedder a "fuck you, you're fired" note, along with an internets laser beam, which will "mushroom cloud" his Tradingwhileworking domain.
Mr. Woodshedder's sudden departure enables me to "hire" another weekend blogger. For those who are interested, e-mail me at my earliest convenience.
Pay is equal to the ancient Roman minimum wage.
NOTE: In no way was this post intended to "link whore" for Woodshedder, while creating a fucktarded state of artificial controversy aka "blog war" at FlyonWallstreet.com.