Friday, August 03, 2007
Hella Lame...A Portrait of [Market] Schizophrenia
Christ, he IS getting stronger.
I'm sorry, I owe you, the reader, an explanation: As the market gets shittier, Ducati, with his Voldemort-like powers, gets stronger, and his effects can be seen all around the internets. Your speech will become peppered with useless verbiage, vis-à-vis a marked increase in the formation of perfectly constructed moot points. The validity of your points will be shrouded in a veil of secrecy, never to be understood by anyone.
You will, viz., turn into a petard.
Now, the main thing to remember, is
FOCUS. Panic selling doesn't do anyone any good. Not everything can be affected by credit markets, remember?
Look, there are two simple ways to view the market--you're either a timer, or not. Either you play a short-term game, or you don't. For the sake of capital preservation, over-trading is petarded. If you think you can time the market, sell some stocks; raise some cash, as good deals will surely be afforded to you over the remainder of summer. You owe it to yourself to know what you own, and if there is tangible risk, sell. Notice I said tangible risk, as in it is MATERIAL, and REAL, currently. That includes homebuilders and prime brokerages, at least until we get some better estimates. Leave the guessing of how, if, and to what degree the credit cycle will affect GME to the kidstocks of the world. Selling because you are extrapolating what may be at risk because this is at risk, so THAT means that this group must slow down, which means the consumer will soon be drinking Kool-Aid with the "yellow 5 coloring," effectively causing the nation's balls to shrink is plain petarded. That is the petarded issue that bears addressing--panic selling. GS, gone, I understand, but everything? NO.
So, DON'T sell everything short of your Grandma's Palladium dentures just yet--PPS may be depressed, but it's the business inside that counts.
You know, the classic rhetorical moral situation--a fat girl with loads of personality. That's our market. Sure, we could dump on her, but we know she's hot on the inside, deep down--or at least, has the potential, provided she can drop the spare.
You really can't tell. This type of action have caused nobler men to piss themselves. Sure, no prob if you have Zeus-like intestinal fortitude. Didn't the man change shape, to fuck a cow? Talk about looking beneath the surface for an inner beauty--Bernanke, you hearing me on this?
ST down, LT up, sounds easy enough. There are plays that will last for years--perfect, no rush. You think Chipotable is done, because now you can't afford a $10 burrito? Sure, maybe the PPS is done for a qtr, but you're huffing gas out of your cousin's three-wheeler if you think the growth of CMG is done. Wait until it comes in enough to discount its future, then buy aggressively. Speaking of wheels, ol' Fostish (FWLT) had less volume today that it's 50-day avg, has 66% of its sales in EU, and has global growth wind in its sails. Don't buy it though, it reports next week, and due to the total lack of IP rights, the issue is likely worth .95-1.13, based on my mental schedule of amortization. Remember, soon our world will resemble the barren moon, no need for foster. Sell everything--all I need is my money market account. Dammit, there it is again
You have to look past the next three weeks. I love baby-cide as much as the next man, but for the love of caddyshack, don't throw the babies out with all that murky sub-prime bath-water!
And plus, the market isn’t quite at the "fat girl with personality" phase, yet anyway; we just sure as hell aren't in the "sex with lights on" phase anymore. If anything, we have swiftly entered the "I can't look you in the eye and answer that question honestly because you've become a little husky" phase. Debilitating, sure, but thankfully a superficial phase. Excuse my jargon.
On a final note, if you're scared of nothing, or even everything, how's this awesome fortune I got today? Those chinamen have some sick sense of
Jog on, lads.
Linkin' Park: It's Goin Down
Short answer: Only God and Cramer knows. Therefore, I've decided to forget about "calculator brains" and "time machines" and start taking losses, like a fucking man.
Trust me when I say: Mother market broke my jaw and sternum today.
As I said before, I'm in survival mode now. Funny how shit happens. Just two weeks ago, I was sitting back, printing money. Now, I am ducking grenades and getting into knife fights with these bears.
They're everywhere. I'm surrounded.
My optimistic plans of "banking coin" or drinking "rich man's whiskey" have been postponed. "The Fly's" wings have been clipped.
Don't let this downturn crush you. Understand the worst case scenario, which is the unraveling of the Yen carry trade, coupled with a major U.S. bank going insolvent. If the Fed doesn't act quickly, all hell may break loose, effectively enabling a few thousand points to be "shaved" off the DOW.
The brokers are forced to sell paper, where there is no market. As a result, they are being raped.
Finally, unfortunately, I will be away for half of next week, on vacation. I would like to cancel my trip and man the "turret," but my kids are looking forward to it. While on the road, I will be calling my fucking trader, making sure he gets good prints.
As for you, Woodshedder and Danny will entertain (guest blog)-- and show funny looking charts.
NOTE: The only stock not subject to sale is MVIS. All bets are off for everything else.
Fly Sell: LAZ
Disclaimer: Don't bother.
Fly Buy: SRS
Disclaimer: If you buy SRS because of this post, your house will go to zero. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sells: LEH, MCHX, AAPL, NVS, EQIX
Quick Alert: Cramer Rocks
This is a major change in sentiment for me. Cramer has just went fucking nuclear on national TV.
Will someone please upload Cramer's tirade on Youtube, so that I can watch it forever.
Long live Cramer.
UPDATE: Although Cramer put on a nice show, it has resulted in panic selling. I'm paring some losses here, as a result. Fucker.
Fly Buy: AAPL
Disclaimer: If you buy AAPL because of this post, someone will steal your patents. And, you may lose money.
Blow Off Bottom?
For the Naz, look for tells in YHOO, NVDA, AMZN, NIHD, PCAR and CSCO.
For the DOW, watch AXP, GM, JPM and BA.
Should those fuckers go green or rebound, this market will punch the lips off the sellers.
Sector Spotlight: Tech
While it's true, select technology stocks have done well, such as GRMN, NVT (nice call Howard), AAPL, RIMM and a variety of others. This is a stock pickers market. Currently, I'd rather buy beaten down basic material stocks, than fuck around with idiots at BBND, TSRA, RACK, NTAP, AKAM and the rest of the technology gang.
Have you not learned from past mistakes? Do you really believe, should the market get "chro-barred," tech will stand tall?
In short, fuck tech and the shit mobile it rides in.
As for today's trading:
Leadership stocks and sectors are telling me the market is going down 1% plus. Already, there is vast weakness amongst the trannies, brokers and retail. In other words, this is a fucked up tape, prepare to have your mustache punched off.
Considering how volatile the market has been, I wouldn't be surprised to see the market snap back and roll on the fucking bears. Although, with everything I'm seeing now, I doubt it.
NOTE: Gold is today's safe haven.
Late Night Thought
Thursday, August 02, 2007
Go figure, ARWR was left for dead, just a week ago, only to "mushroom cloud" higher, on a small press release.
And, MVIS received coverage today, by Merriman, who feels the stock can go to $7-10. It is somewhat bewildering to me that the stock is below "pre-MOT" levels. Going forward, anticipate the company to pursue deals with the likes of GOOG or DIS. After all, the big winners of Picop technology will be content providers.
In my opinion, there is no way the stock is below $8, by Christmas of 2007.
MCHX is a fucking bastard. Nothing irritates me more than MCHX going lower. With that being said, if the stock God's truly love me, MCHX will break the jaws off the short sellers.
More on that later.
Finally, during this market recovery, it's important to note the absence of strength in the brokers. Apparently, the sellers are making a stand in the brokers, expecting downgrades and a reduction in earnings estimates. The only problem for them (sellers), the stocks are already discounting such events and will likely spike higher on updated guidance.
NOTE: Shotgun to the head pick is VMI.
No Dice on Earnings
As for me, I have zero fucking interest in making earnings calls. When my stocks "shit the shower," I go into survival mode, with full blown facial hair and army fatigues to match.
If you are still trying to play earnings, after seeing what effective evil short sellers are capable of (NTRI, MVIS, OEH); well then, you are a degenerate, cigar smoking OTB guy.
Will I sell HANS prior to numbers?
Will I buy more?
Look you, I am paranoid and superstitious. Indeed, it is deadly combination.
Not only do I feel someone is out to get me, but the alignment of the stars and moon have something to do with it.
In short, I'm all about staying in my bunker, while searching for a nuclear bomb grenade.
NOTE: DT has a post up, regarding the uptick rule. Fuck you Bruce.
Position Update: MVIS
Sector Spotlight: Brokers
Thus far, defense, biotech and homebuilders are leading the way. Also, keep note of the treasuries. Yields are creeping back up again. Perhaps the doomsday scenario is losing some traction.
At this stage, it makes sense to take profits on recent buys and preserve capital. As you know, before the market can really giddyup, the fuckers from CNBC will demand it "retest the lows." It's sort of a last ditch propaganda effort, by the bears, to cover their positions--before the market annihilates them.
Right now, the direction of the market is being dictated by the brokers. Therefore, keep an eye on LEH, LAZ, MS, GS, BSC and MER.
With my money, I will buy MVIS and MCHX, today. Quite frankly, I don't get why MCHX is down so much, without respite.
Additionally, now that JJ the clown is out of SWC--it will probably head north. Just a hunch.
NOTE: This weekend, I will be going on vacation, until mid next week. In the meantime, my "Supreme Weekend Blogger" will take the reins.
EMERGENCY UPDATE: SWC is a "Super Strong Sell." Thanks Mike.
GOOG Working on Mobile Phones
|GOOG Google pushes tailored phones to win lucrative ad market - WSJ (512.94 )|
|The Wall Street Journal reports Google (GOOG) is courting wireless operators to carry handsets customized to Google products, including its search engine, email and a new mobile Web browser, say people familiar with the plans. It wants to capture a big chunk of the market for ads on cellphones. Google has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in the cellphone project, say people who have been briefed on it. It has developed prototype handsets, made overtures to operators such as T-Mobile USA and Verizon Wireless, and talked over technical specifications with phone manufacturers. It hopes multiple manufacturers will make devices based on its specs and multiple carriers will offer them. The long-rumored Google phones are still in the planning stages, and wouldn't be available to consumers until next year at the earliest, say people familiar with the idea. Some details are likely to shift as the plans develop. A Google spokesman yesterday declined to comment on a Google phone project, but noted: "We are partnering with almost all of the carriers and manufacturers to get Google search and other Google applications onto their devices and networks." The specifications Google has laid out for devices suggest that manufacturers include cameras for photo and video, and built-in Wi-Fi to access the Web at locations such as airports, coffee shops and hotels. It also is recommending that the phones be designed to work on carriers' fastest networks, known as 3G, to ensure that Web pages can be downloaded quickly. Google suggests the phones could include GPS technology that identifies where people are.|
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
50 Cent: Funeral Music
I think there are better odds playing the slot machines at a Trump hotel, than invest in this fucktarded market. I'm sure "Fuckbag" Pasani will try to paint this pig to look like a bear (I realize this sentence is nonsensical), but there's no mistaking what just happened.
What happened you ask?
The market bottomed, bitch. Investors told the bear fuckers to stick their sub-prime shit in their ears, while buying like degenerate, cigar smoking OTB guys.
As you know, I was buying stocks all day. My buy list included: LEH, RS, CENX, MVIS, HANS and VMI.
Without a doubt, the "bearshitters" will try to lean on the market tomorrow; but they will fail. Barring horrendous economic news, I suspect the market will run, triple digits, tomorrow--effectively kicking old men down open manholes.
With my remaining money (fuck you MVIS), I will keep my balls on the guillotine, staying long aggressive stocks. As of now, I have no hedges and maintain heavy leverage to the upside.
If I'm right, I'll have my contractor, Frank, put a bronze bull on my front lawn, mainly to piss off my neighbor's. If not, I'll become a full time blogger--with an annual income of around 1,000 bucks.
NOTE: For those interested, here is the transcript to MVIS's conference call.
Late Day Thought
Quick Alert: Fuck the NYSE and their Robots
Without a doubt, this is high octane investing. You know, the type of tape that will bankrupt you, inside of a short week.
No one knows where the wheel of misfortune will stop next. After thinking things through, it makes sense to sit this fucker out--if possible.
While it's true, we are in an extreme oversold position, there is no guarantee we can get these mortgage fuckers off the headlines.
Try to resist the urge to make up all your losses in one day, like some sort of OTB jerk off. Instead, take measured bets with appropriate hedges. Someday soon, we will get a big 200+ day. Until then, stay in the game.
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, squirrels will eat your nuts. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: HANS
Disclaimer: If you buy HANS because of this post, your only son will become a sub-prime mortgage "deal maker." And, you may lose money.
"So, Let's Dance"
The Crusading Bears...
SPECIAL EMERGENCY UPDATE: Kill the bear.
...are about to have their meatloaf eaten.
Now, I'm hungry.
The Return of the Homies
Lots of people, both long and short, will have their collard greens eaten for them today.
NEWS FLASH: All of the homebuilders are not going bankrupt, today. If you are in construction, get back to work.
Sector Spotlight: Homebuilders
BZH is now down 39%, HOV -15%, SPF -14%, MTH -14%, WCI -13%, BHS -10%, TOL- 10%, amongst a variety of others.
The whole country is going bankrupt. Burn your house and move to Mexico.
If the Fed doesn't cut interest rates, we're going to have a financial melt down. And, yet, I sit here trying to catch some falling knives.
I believe these homies are being liquidated by JPM, GS and LEH. All of them are knee deep in "homeshit."
NOTE: I'm sure the elimination of the uptick rule is helping create an orderly exit from BZH and the rest of the homies.
Fly's State of Affairs
Remember all of those boiler room stock brokers, who got kicked out of the industry for ripping off senior citizens? Well, guess what, they're doing it again. Look around, I'd say 90% of the mortgage brokers are former asshole stock brokers.
These fuckers keep moving from one industry to another, destroying it like a pack of locusts. And, what's the deal with the loan managers? Can we send a few of these fucktards to prison already?
All of a sudden, real estate is worthless. Those fucking houses are the equivalent of fire wood, thanks to the asshat "deal makers."
These fucking deal makers have destroyed the country. I'd feel a lot better if the CIA would start punching their mustache's off.
As for me:
Well, I've been taking hits, losing about 1/3rd of my profits, year to date. I just feel, to my bone, we are way oversold. I know the second I start selling short, the market will reverse and decapitate me. So, for the most part, I've been sitting and waiting, while throwing banana peels at my trader/servant.
Also, I've been trading a lot. "Broker A," formerly known as "The Fly," has been buying and selling--like some sort of retarded day trader.
For the most part, I have been loading the fuck up on some of the financials and basic materials. While this may seem like a recipe for death and mayhem, I view it as contrarian. Moreover, in my experience, going against the pack often leads to successful trades.
Keep in mind, most money managers are imbeciles.
Finally, if you are looking to sell short, keep a look out for hedge fund or advisory firm liquidations. Many firms had exposure to RAS, AHM, amongst other disasters. For example, Eubel Brady and Suttman (small Ohio based firm) is loaded to the gills in AHM, RAS and ACF. Naturally, should they start selling off their other positions, in an effort to save their fucking firm, those positions may drop sharply-- as a result. Keep an eye on MCCC, SEAB, HK and RLI.
Fly Buy's: LEH & CENX
Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, you're an idiot. And, you may lose money.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Late Day Thought
In other news, the market will bottom, once some of these mortgage fuckers go under and people feel the Fed will cut rates.
More on this tomorrow.
Bulls (Perisans) versus Bears (Spartans)
Position Update: MVIS
Anyway, MVIS is making terrific progress, with regards to the development of their technology. I would anticipate the company, over the next 6 months, to sign more OEM deals and sell part of the company to a major handset maker.
Look at OLED. Those fuckers got bought out today for a huge premium. If MVIS has the goods, what would stop NOK, MOT or Samsung from buying the company?
If I was advising MVIS, I'd tell them to be cognizant of such a possibility, particularly the closer they get to production.
As for the share price:
Fully diluted, the company is being valued at approximately 332 million. That may sound big to "smart internet money managers" like Ducati; but, in actuality, it is very, very small. Considering the market they are targeting, MVIS, at a minimum, should be valued at 1 billion dollars, based upon projected 2009 numbers.
I know it sounds like back of the napkin analysis-- because it is. But, if you believe MVIS will be able to embed their Picop technology into handsets, as I do, 1 billion will be the tip of the iceberg. Potentially, MVIS could be worth billions.
Think camera's, laptops, medical devices, HUD's, portable gaming devices etc.
System Of A Down - Fuck The System
The bulls have been castrated, by a dirty shiv-- at the hands of the bear shitters.
Into the close, I closed out a few trading positions, in order to raise cash.
All in all, today made me fucking irate. I broke 3 calculators and one keyboard (breaking stuff makes me stronger).
In short, there are no safe havens. In the near term, the market is subject to fucktarded declines, particularly at the end of the day-- thanks to the elimination of the uptick rule (fuck you Bruce).
At first glance, I see BWLD posted a "shitbag" number. I knew better than to back up the truck, prior to the report. Nonetheless, I'm still long the name.
Again, just to recap, our banking industry are full of idiots, our homebuilders are naive and our chicken wing makers are fat slobs.
NOTE: Don't fuck with me today. Very bad reversal day's make me near homicidal.
NOTE II: The MVIS qt was excellent, with all things considered. Here is the link to conference call.
Quick Alert: Dynamite Car Going 100 MPH Towards the Sun
However, it's worth noting, it takes a crazy man with a very fast "calculator brain" to bank coin in the market.
So, you may doubt me all you want, as the market fucks around and kicks you in the nuts.
But, I'll have you know, come Christmas, I'll be flipping golden coins from the back of my town car, at piker Wall Street brokers or old men.
I'm betting on a fucking rally.
Off to drink another Monster Energy Soda.
The Wonderful World of Sub-Prime
It's amazing to see how many companies didn't see this shit coming. I mean, geez, its been on the news for two years straight, ad nauseam.
I know a guy who is long 100's of thousands of dollars in AHM.
In short, the sub-primer's have, once again, put the kibosh on the market. All bets are off, at least for today.
If the bulls want to save their asses, they'll mount a rally, by 3:30.
If not, you chart chomping fucktards are all screwed.
Fly Buy: SNDK
Disclaimer: If you buy SNDK because of this post, cockroaches will infest your Raisin Bran cereal box. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: LEH
Disclaimer: If you buy LEH because of this post, they will sub-prime themselves into oblivion. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: RS
UPDATE: I bought 5,000 RS @ $53.10.
Disclaimer: If you buy RS because of this post, the next time you use the facilities of a public bathroom, homeless men will harass you for spare change. And, you may lose money.
Quick Alert: Green Light to Kick Feeble, Old Men Down Stairs
With my money, I'll be punching into RS for a trade.
"I'll Kill Germans Too"
Sector Spotlight: Retail
Look you, once the sentiment shifts, back to bullish, I will be eating the livers of those who sell my stocks. For example, MCHX should be good for a quick $1.50 to the upside. And, don't forget the basic material stocks, like CENX, RS and KALU. They're all cheap.
However, I'll try not to get lulled into some sort of false rally, where bulls typically lose their horns. You know, the type of market that looks great, but next thing you know; you're on Gov't assistance.
Thus far, the general tone of the market is good, with just about every sector green. However, it's worth noting, most sectors are barely up, which makes them vulnerable to a sell off.
Keep your eye on the CYC, XBD and TRAN.
Finally, for a trade, "The Fly" may buy some more RS.
NOTE: If the price of oil keeps going up, it may become a problem for the bulls. It's a future bear story, once this sub-prime shit blows over.
NOTE II: Please take the new "Fly Survey." Are you bullish or bearish on the markets?
God Only Knows Why: Woodshedder is "Supreme Weekend Blogger"
Har, har, har.
God does have a sense of humor. However, I'm sure he does not laugh.
So, as a result of winning the "Supreme Weekend Blogger" award, Woodshedder shall don his name on my blog, like an ornament, for a period of 23 days. Also, he gets a picture of "Malaysian glazed" chicken wings.
Truly a treasure.
As for Danny, I offer you a picture of a set of steak knives.
CNL is fired, despite receiving less votes than Ragin'-- due to disqualification.
And, as you know, Ragin's website will be melted away to a cinder, all from the luxury of my third floor office, within my house.
NOTE: Danny was the "Walter Mondale" of this election.
UPDATE: Ragin's website has been destroyed. Victory for "The Fly," once again.
Monday, July 30, 2007
Thanks For The Votes
As you know, third tier bloggers are not permitted to post during business days. It is fucking illegal.
Prepare to defend your fucking shit filled blog from this here laser beam, bucko.
Polls Close at Mid-Night
Once again, the winner will win the illustrious prize of "Supreme Weekend Blogger," which entails nothing more than a bag of chicken bones, maybe less.
NOTE: To vote click on "Fly Elections," on the left hand side of the page.
Silverblue - Do You Know
These bear fuckers will come to work tomorrow and try to punch your lips off. The problem, for them, is the record short interest. All the short covering puts a floor underneath the market. Therefore, it makes sense to go out in the market, like a fucking Teutonic Knight, and start axing away at your favorite names.
While it's true, "The Fly" has been "machine gunned" on several picks, as of late. However, keep in mind, fuckers, I'm playing chess not checkers. Unlike you (internet jerk off), I have ample cash reserves and a diversified portfolio.
So what did I do today?
Well, I opened a bunch of trading positions in GS, LEH, CENX, RS and a few aggressive option plays. Also, I added to my abysmal MCHX and glorious MVIS positions. It's worth noting, MCHX scares me.
As for tomorrow:
Look for sign's of "big dickery," such as a big share buyback or private equity deal. As sure as I'm sitting here, any big private equity deal will send the bears packing and the DOW to new highs.
Finally, on this bounce, try to avoid energy stocks. Instead, focus on companies that reported kick ass numbers, which are now discounted, such as VMI, AZZ, LNN or HANS.
NOTE: Treasuries look like a good short here, via TLT.
Fly Buy: LEH
Disclaimer: If you buy LEH because of this post, someone will punch your chest hairs off. And, you may lose money.
Die Shorts, Die.
Get your bayonets ready.
Fly Buy: CENX
Disclaimer: If you buy CENX because of this post, Chinese pet food will kill your dog. And, you may lose money.
"I was here 2,000 years ago"
Position Update: MCHX
Even though the stock is trading like it's going to miss earnings, I am willing to stay with the name. If YHOO wants to increase the quality of their advertising campaign's, they will buy MCHX.
In short, get the hell out of dodge, if you cannot handle risk. However, if you are patient and willing to average in on dips, in my opinion, MCHX will make you enough money to buy a high quality steak or new house-- depending on how much you invest.
Fly Buy's: LEH, MVIS, MCHX, RS and GS
Disclaimer: If you buy any of the above stocks because of this post, your coffee machine will electrocute you. And, you may lose money.
Quick Alert: Meeting Over/ Fly Buys
Now that I'm back, partly thanks to the amount of caffeine in my bloodstream, I'm putting some money to work.
Clearly, it looks like we will get a bounce. With my money, I am buying MCHX, MVIS, RS and GS.
Quick Alert: Off to a Meeting
Make sure the market starts going higher, but not full blown.
When I get back (this is for my trader/servant), I want two warm, not hot, slices of pizza.
NOTE: Already, I am on my second Monster Energy soda. This may have an affect on my behavior, during the meeting.
Fly Buy: MCHX
Disclaimer: If you buy MCHX because of this post, you will be the recipient of a computer virus. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Metals
In my opinion, following a big decline, it's important to rally hard, in order to keep the confidence level up. Basically, if the market doesn't rally soon, anticipate to see your long positions "mushroom clouded."
Thus far, I am losing money, thanks in large part to the degenerates at MCHX. Apparently, VCLK forgot how to make money, and is getting hammered for its sins. MCHX is down in sympathy.
NEU reported a kick ass summer quarter, as usual.
Finally, if the market can man up, I'd be a buyer of the basic materials, at these levels-- specifically the metals. Already, we are seeing sign's of life in ACH, BHP, RTP, RTI and RS.
As for ARWR:
I've been waiting on this press release for a long, long time. Although they did not announce who their partner is. I hear it may be Hitachi. It doesn't really matter now, since I am all but out of that cock sucking plague of pick.
NOTE: Tomorrow evening MVIS will report quarterly losses. I expect to hear a kick ass conference call. In short, it makes sense to be long, ahead of the call.
IT'S NOT THAT I'M LAZY. IT'S FUCKING YOUTUBE!!!!!! ENJOY!!!!!!!
This is part 3, stupid fucks. In case you were wondering, this is "The Fly" doing a little housekeeping on this sloppy ass post. Great vids.
Fuck This, I'm Going Anyway/ Elections
I must say, this has been my favorite weekend blogger fest yet ( keep in mind "The Fly" has never partaken in a weekend blogger fest). For those of you who say: "Gee, all the comedy, I'm scared of the market. Can you please, sir, tell me what to do, instead?"
Once again, this blog is about my entertainment, while trying to alienate as many internet watchers and lurkers possible. In other words, I'd prefer to laugh before my elimination, instead of thinking about it--like some sort of candy ass.
Everyone displayed normal intelligence quotient and lots of raw energy, albeit internet energy aka "lazy man on computer typing fast."
As you know, this weekend's "blog off" will decide who is "Supreme Weekend Blogger."
All participants have "third tier blogs" of their own. However, it's worth noting, I enjoy them, occasionally.
Without further adieu, I give you "elections."
1st Prize: "Supreme Weekend Blogger" Award.
2nd Prize: Picture of a set of steak knives.
3rd Prize: You're fired.
4th Prize: I melt your blog with a fucking internet laser beam.
The least you (internet pussy) can do is visit our weekend bloggers' blogs and click on their ads-- or report them to google for asking me to say that. Either scenario is perfectly fine with me.
The Chopping Block
Sunday, July 29, 2007
10 More Guest Bloggers
A Filet Mignon For Your Eyes
Download only, high res, fuck youtube.
Fly On WallStreet
I could go into a long drawn out essay about a particular stock, or perhaps throw a few charts up, with a bunch of squiggly lines, and then tell you exactly where the market is heading. I could also tell you why I’m still bullish or bearish on the markets. But, guess what? That’s not my style! If you want that kind of post, why don’t you just go here.
Based on a few negative comments, I can sense that you, the internet fucktard, have no clue on how the market works! So you come here to get enlightened, and when a guest blogger comes along and offers you no guidance, you feel lost. Sorry!
I came here to entertain you, give you something to read/look at, after a tough week. I came here, not to win guest blogger of the year, (which I won’t win, shit I won’t even vote for myself, Danny is King when it comes to this shit) I came here to provide a little bit of laughter, mixed with an incredible stock pick, like Fly gives us every week.
Anyway, I could care less if you like me, or if you hated my posts!
I am just thrilled to have been a part of this blog. The reason I started blogging was because of this blog. This is my favorite site on the internet! I look forward to every morning, around 10:00, when Fly makes his first post of the week, and I am thrilled when he decides to do a late night post. The clever way he puts words together, the confidence he has in his tone, his impeccable stock selection—this is what legends are made of.
Fly, thanks for having me, and thanks for the time you put into this incredible blog!
Finally, if a shotgun were put to my head, in order to extract one stock pick, I'd say: "shoot me Sir if you must; but before you do, go long ERTS."
Economically Viable Alternative Energy?
What many fail to realize however is the sheer immensity of this task. The amount of energy we collectively produce from fossil fuels is astronomical. At this point, instead of delving into numerical data, I would like to try a metaphor. Imagine yourself in modern day
In other words, this stuff(hydrocarbons) is useful, versatile and at this point, relatively cheap. With the emerging economies of
Now if we are in agreement on the aforementioned, we can agree that we need to identify viable alternative sources. I use the word viable here because it is so often omitted when discussing alternative energy. By viable, I mean a source that is renewable, easily integrated into existing infrastructures and most importantly; economically attractive when compared to its fossil fuel counter parts. This excludes you hydrogen and your cohort corn ethanol.
By this premise, only one fuel source comes to mind, and that is in fact biodiesel. Biodiesel refers to a diesel-equivalent manufactured from biological (renewable) sources which can be combusted in unmodified diesel vehicles. Wikipedia describes this chemical compound as: "Alkyl esters made from the transesterification of vegetable or animal fats."
Biodiesel is enticing for several reasons. First, it can be easily integrated and utilized into existing fueling infrastructures and vehicles. By vehicles, I am not referring to our average
This brings me to my next point. Unlike ethanol, the alternative for gasoline; biodiesel and diesel boost comparable energy content at 37.8 MJ/kg and 48.1 MJ/kg, respectively. Unlike ethanol's 30% compromise in fuel efficiency, a truck powered by biodiesel will average nearly identical fuel economy compared to its diesel powered counterpart.
This brings me to my final point. Biodiesel is renewable. Some will attempt to argue that there is an endless supply of oil yet to be discovered, but the most fundamental principle of economics states there is endless demand for finite resources. While this doesn't mean we will run out of oil tomorrow or in ten years, it does indicate that as supply diminishes and demand increases oil will become more expensive.
Currently on the commercial scale, biodiesel is produced using virgin plant oils. While this is great in theory the numbers aren't as enticing. What would happen to these producers if the $1.00 per gallon federal tax credit were withdrawn? More importantly, what would happen if the spot price of crude oil were to drop significantly? While these two scenarios seem unlikely given the current political environment, they do poise interesting concerns regarding biodiesel's economic viability.
Where concern dwells so too does opportunity. Theoretically, biodiesel producers could cut costs using economics of scale such as Imperium Renewables and Archer Daniels Midland are attempting to do. These companies and many more like them may in fact prove successful, but there lies an even more efficient method for drastically cutting variable costs.
Last month a micro cap, by the name of Syntroleum launched a joint venture with Tyson Foods to build and co-operate a 75 million per year refinery. This venture is exciting because they intend to use fats, greases and reclaimed vegetables oils as their primary feedstock. For producers this truly is the holy grail of biodiesel. Since the feedstock is the largest variable cost, the more inexpensive the feedstock the more profitable the producer. While SYNM and TSN are targeting 2010 as their completion date, there is in fact one biodiesel producer whose been doing this continuously at a 80,000 gallon pilot plant since 2003 and commercially since October of 2006. Before I get into the specifics of this company, I believe it is prudent to walk through the basic economics.
Given that the feed stock comprises 60-75% of the finished products cost, it becomes imperative to process the lest expensive sources. The problem is, the cheaper the feedstock, the higher the fatty free acid(FFA) content and in turn the greater the difficulty to refine.
Corn oil for example, fetches around $.30-.34 per pound with a FFA of around 1%. While this feedstock is incredibly easy to process, its usage equates to a variable cost of ($.30 x 8lb = $2.40 per gallon)(8lb = 1 gallon).
Mechanically complete 20 million gallon per year facility.
With operational costs ranging from $.42-.53 and diesel rack prices nearing $3.11, there isn't much room for profit margins or excess funds to recoup the plant's initial capital cost. However, with the current federal tax credit biodiesel producers can remain competitive if they sell the biodiesel for $3.11($2.40+.45= 2.85, $3.11-2.85+1.00= $1.20 profit per gallon).
The story is even more appealing when we cut feedstock costs. Take yellow grease for example. When the FFA exceeds >20% the cost drops to under $.15. With these prices a producer could refine biodiesel for half the cost($.15 x 8lb = $1.20+.45= $1.65, $3.11-1.65+1.00= $2.46 profit per gallon). Note: these numbers exclude the Oklahoma $.25 tax credit as well as the $.50 federal BTU sludge tax credit.
One final thought on numbers. The company which I shall mention shortly will have a combined annual capacity online by Q2 2008 of 70 million gallons. Interestingly, all of the feed stocks and refined biodiesel are already locked up in contracts signed last year. This means that as of next year they will be netting close to $172,200,000. Given the 109,998,692 shares outstanding and an industry average P/E of 9.9, the company should post an EPS of $.64 and a PPS of $6.34(9.9x.64). These numbers, although estimations indicate an extreme discount when compared to current market valuations.
As I mentioned before the company, Nova Biosource Fuels, Inc.(NBF) isn't talking about doing it they are doing it. Currently, the company is in various stages of permitting and building three refineries for their own portfolio with the capacity to process 25 various feed stocks into biodiesel which meet and exceeds ASTM D 6751 standards.
Why do I believe this company will succeed? Aside from the hurdles of finding funding and pioneering new technology, I look to management. Who is running the company and why? When concerning quality, NBF boosts one of the most impressive micro cap management lineups I have ever seen. Interestingly, they are all high caliber ex-oil men originating from the likes of Texaco, Halliburton Energy Services, Vanco Energy, Mobil Exploration, and Kerr-McGee Chemical.
The next question is why? Why are all of these ex-oil executives and presidents running a $300 million micro cap start-up? Basic speculation brings me to a logical answer. Big oil is in the business of making money. They have been 'banking coin' for years and they will continue to do so for many more to come. So to answer my question, the real reason these men choose NBF, is they know its technology enables them to produce biodiesel and do so economically.