Saturday, March 03, 2007
The Big Picture - Nasdaq
So, I don't know whether it is to quell you complainers out there, or whether he wants me to make an ass of myself on his blog so he can subsequently fire me and remove any hope I've ever had about having a few "mexican illegals" spruce up my yard for Spring, but Fly has agreed to allow me to post some charts and stuff.
I want to start with the Nasdaq. I think you've got to look at the big picture here.
A historical perspective is important to consider. Lets compare the start of our current correction with the correction that begain last May. Both sell-offs went quickly outside of the Bollinger Bands. In May, it took 6 days of sell-off before the Comp. moved back within the bands.
Volume on the May sell-off was above average, but not huge. Volume the past 4 days of this sell-off has been monumental. Because of the volume, I believe this move could be more powerful than in May.
There is an area of congestion between 2325-2350 that is likely to act as either the 1st. support or a speedbump to the current fall. It helps that the 38.2% Fib. level is right at that level as well. The 2nd area to pay attention to is the 2275-2300 level. That area will have the 200 day SMA and 50% retracement levels to contend with. Finally, the 61.8% retracement level at ~2210 stands a good chance of being touched, as every correction since 2004 has come very near or has breached this level before resuming the uptrend.
So what to do? This event, based on the volume and the spectacular performance of the Dow and Nasdaq on Blue Tuesday, will continue for some time. Don't fool yourself into thinking this will be over in a few days. It is clear from the chart that the Slow Stochastics can give entry signals for those who want to try and play the bounces. If you want to be long the bounce, just remember the spikes will be sold. You could also wait for the bounce, and then add to existing short positions. If history is any guide, the 20 day SMA should be a good place to sell your longs or add to your shorts.
Sometime soon, everyone will be talking about looking for a bottom. Keep in mind that in the past 4 years, every corrective phase has had two or three spikes up and back down before the actual bottom was in. Rather than trying to identify the bottom as it happens, it is more important to preserve your capital and your confidence so you can participate in grabbing a big bite out of the next run-up.
Friday, March 02, 2007
Nelly Furtado: All Good Things Come to an End
But, I was up 0.34% today. Therefore, I have successfully hedged my holdings. In other words, I turned the faucet off.
Unfortunately, many of you fuckers do not have "calculator brains," like me, and still hold longs-- with the sincere hope of seeing them rebound. If you are one of those people, well then, you are a dicktarded asshat.
Never let the market pimp you. Moreover, never become a victim to an obvious roll over.
Bottom line: Sell your weak stocks and buy inverse ETF's, like SSG, QID or MZZ. Also, consider going long FXY (Yen) and buying TLT (20 year treasuries).
Finally, there were some pockets of strength, but not many. Before the bottom, we have to feel more pain. Sadly, for you, we are not there yet.
Off to go smoke a cigar.
NOTE: This weekend, there will be a guest blogger with all sorts of charts and stuff. If he sucks, I will fire him, first thing Monday morning.
Fly Sell: STI
Fly Sell: BRCM
Disclaimer: If you sell short BRCM because of this post, your computer may crash. And, you may lose money.
Position Updates: ATHR
Nonetheless, none of my wishes are likely to occur. So, I guess my chart guy will be responsible for the fate of ATHR.
Fly Sell: ATHR
Disclaimer: If you sell short ATHR because of this post, your cat may urinate on your favorite pillow. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: FXY
Disclaimer: If you buy FXY because of this post, you may find your hair difficult to comb. And, you may lose money.
Quick Alert: Fly's Analyst Confronts BWLD Short Seller
Apparently, the BWLD short seller was conversing with a HANS seller, when my analyst confronted him.
He's fucking serious about his positions.
Sector Spotlight: General Market
To keep it plain and simple, I want to be short equities, especially the Semi's, via SSG, and long Yen, via FXY.
Should the carry trade unravel, FXY will appreciate.
Also, it's worth noting, Gold is no longer a safe haven. It has been lumped together with the rest of the commodity basket and is too mainstream.
In my opinion, the only safe haven is FXY, FXE and TLT.
NOTE: Bob "big fucking doings" Parker, Vice Chairman of Credit Suisse Asset Management, was on CNBC Europe, last night. Click here to listen to the interview.
NOTE II: Bob Parker is the only old guy Broker A listens to.
Asshat of the Week Award: John Thain
Thain certainly does not give you that.
Pure asshattery. John Thain has earned this fucking trophy, with his internet robots and mechanical-like presence.
Perhaps he is a fucking robot too?
Thursday, March 01, 2007
Armin van Buuren: Sail
I'll bet you one of my kidney's for your liver that the market has more downside (notice how my organ exchange is significantly to my favor). There is something looming. I don't know what it is, but I don't like it. Not one bit!
Maybe it's the lack of chicken wings in my blood stream, for I have not been to BWLD since my earnings day celebration. Or, perhaps it's the high caffeine/violent office demeanor (throwing large objects at my servant/trader is considered violent) that I maintain, which makes me bet body organs-- based upon pending market moves.
Nonetheless, I have loaded up on a variety of downside "plays," which will allow me to take my scissors out and cut the tongues out of you bulls. That's right, once again, I have abandoned you bull-fuckers, while hiking on a mountain climb.
Sorry, I'm fucked up like that.
However, it's important to note, I am mostly long. To put it bluntly, I'm focused on the downside now and will continuously reduce my longs, in exchange for shorts.
Some stocks will never be sold, such as RIMM, MVIS, BWLD, HANS, CORS, ACLI, etc. What I intend on doing is leveraging up-- in order to hedge my holdings.
Finally, I want to address the pure "asshattery" taking place at CNBC. They are all dicktards, with dumb idea's and even dumber questions. Someone on the exchange should throw Bob Pasani a "Brooklyn style" beat down. Also, I saw that Birinyi guy on t.v. That guy has been on my blogroll for awhile, but no more. Unfortunately, he is too old and "asshat-like"-- for me to take serious. Hence, I am taking the fucker off the blogroll, forever.
Sorry, I don't make the rules. I live by them.
Quick Alert: Fucktarded
Talk about rookie trade. Not only did I embarrass myself, but I managed to miss out on the fire sale.
It doesn't matter what the market does from here. The fact that the bitch came back, from a 200 hole, wreaks of the asshole dip buyer-- and his ability to "machine gun" the sellers.
In short, this is a dangerous market, both long and short. For those with weak hearts, you may want to buy some Yen, via FXY, else this market is likely to give you "the big one."
Trust me, I am thrilled over my longs gapping higher. However, I still made a very "asshattish" move-- and may indeed be awarded the "asshat of the week award."
Quick Alert: Fly's Analyst Pissed Off Over Sell Off
This guy is going fucking nuts in the office. Apparently, he didn't see the sell off coming.
Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors
I nearly shit the chair when I saw how fast the market was spiraling, early this morning. Since then, the market has staged a very impressive rally. Naturally, I am suspect of a quick recovery. Moreover, I do not think it is plausible to see the market up today. I know many feel "this is it" or "buy now, this bitch is going higher." I can't get too excited, considering the sentiment shift.
However, I will admit, the Semi's are doing better than I expected, only down .8%. With that being said, the skeptical and evil side of my personality feels this bounce represents an ideal shorting opportunity.
Aside from the Semi's, AAPL is strong, due to a Lehman upgrade. Also, it has been reported, Carl "the fucking man" Icahn is buying 2 billion worth of MOT stock. Hence, MOT is strong.
In short, I have more than enough longs to participate in a market rebound. My shorts are a hedge-- and intended to slow down my beta.
Good luck trading, fuckers. You will need it.
Fly Buy: MZZ
Disclaimer: If you buy MZZ because of this post, your neighbor's will turn in your illegal Mexican workers to immigration. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: ATHR
Disclaimer: If you sell short ATHR because of this post, the robots on the NYSE will go bat shit and poleax your portfolio. And, you may lose money.
Bulls on the Chopping Block
If you didn't sell something yesterday:
A. You are a fucktarded imbecile, who has no business running money. Sorry (not really, fucker).
B. You better start thinking defense, right about now.
There are many ways to play the downside. The obvious and popular ways are to buy inverse ETF's, such as QID, MZZ, DOG etc. If you are more seasoned and have a "calculator brain," OEX puts or short individual equities is the way to go.
Personally, OEX puts has always been my favorite way to cut the tongues out of the bulls. Moreover, I am extremely bearish on the Semi's. My new favorite inverse ETF, which shorts the Semi's, is SSG.
Finally, use the internets to help you during these slim times. I have noticed, many financial bloggers are smarter and better investors than 95% of your "professional money managers." Use their insight as a guiding light.
FYI: Your brokers are all idiots.
Here are a few blogs worth perusing, many you already know:
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Wu Tang Clan: Protect Ya Neck
I don't know about you, but after having my legs sawed off yesterday, by Mother market, this 50 point band aid shit doesn't do it for me. In all, I was up 1.1%.
However, I have greatly reduced my downside risk and intend on adding to new short positions, ATHR and AMKR.
If you weren't in the Metals today, the market did dick for you. With that being said, I feel the market is in danger of falling lower, due to risk adjustment.
Also, I saw Jim Rogers and his ridiculous bow tie on CNBC today. Frankly, I believe the man is delusional, considering he is bearish on U.S. equities-- but bullish on the fucking Airliners. He must be smoking some good crack to believe the Airliners will hold up during a market meltdown.
Finally, I understand MVIS will be visiting NYC-- sometime soon. Hopefully, I will find time to visit with management and learn a little more about their plans. In short, I am very bullish on MVIS here and feel it will cut the arms off of those who decide to short it.
Late Day Thought
Quick Alert: Bears Getting Uppitty
Also, I am eating a huge amount of oatmeal, right now. I'll have you know, I am eating it in a very big bowl. It looks like a salad bowl, but there is lots of oatmeal inside of it-- instead of salad.
More on this later. Developing...
Quick Alert: Fly's Analyst Interviewed
Following yesterday's decline in HANS and the overall market, some overzealous reporters attempted to get an opinion from my analyst. Bad idea.
Sector Spotlight: Financials
Aside from that, we are off to a good start. However, as always, I am somewhat skeptical of this rally holding, considering the overwhelming majority of people who were caught with their pants down yesterday. In short, there is going to be risk reduction selling, amongst asset managers, sometime in the very near future.
With that in mind, I think it is important to comb through holdings and sell the vulnerable equities and overweight the stable. Also, with my money, I have started to put hedges up, via QID, SSG, short AMKR, short ATHR, etc.
Furthermore, I do not expect to make money on any of my shorts today. As a matter of fact, I expect to lose money-- as the market bounces here. My strategy is to just get the fuckers printed, so that my beta comes down. Still, I have a lot of volatile equities and I need to address that asap.
As for today's trading:
Watch the Financials. This morning, a very influential analyst from Merril downgraded the brokerage sector, including GS, BSC and LEH. Once again, many "smart people" are expecting the market to roll over-- withing the next two weeks.
Personally, I would rather see those "smart people" dipped in hot chocolate-- then fed to wild pigs. Nonetheless, it makes sense to be cautious-- following the "machine gunning" the bulls underwent yesterday.
The following Financial have mojo:
Fly Sell: AMKR
Disclaimer: If you sell short AMKR because of this post, the next time you visit Home Depot, a piece of plywood will fall off the shelf and strike you in the head. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: ADY
Disclaimer: If you buy ADY because of this post, you may lose half your net worth to an untimely divorce. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: ATHR
Disclaimer: If you sell short ATHR because of this post, you may be rudely interrupted the next time you attempt to take a nap at work. And, you may lose money.
Fly Sell: NTRI
Fly Buy: QID
Disclaimer: If you buy QID because of this post, someone will steal your car radio. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: SSG
Disclaimer: If you buy SSG because of this post, the internet police will arrest you and confiscate your e-mail address. And, you may lose money.
How I Got Poleaxed
Basically, I had been on cruise control, with the exception of the drubbing I took two weeks ago--when BWLD, MVIS and NTRI all imploded at once. With a 27% return in 06', followed by another quick 12% in 07'-- I became complacent and greedy.
Now, the stupid thing to do is sit on my hands and do nothing, thinking "my stocks will come back." Instead, I will expect the worst and hope for the best. In layman's terms, I will trade with the market, not my convictions.
Right now, I hold an 8% cash position. Considering, just yesterday, I was leveraged by 35%; I'd say my equity exposure has been greatly reduced. With the available cash, I will either buy inverse ETF's, short individual equities or add to defensive positions. However, I also reserve the right to buy some high beta names, in the event the market gets too cheap to ignore.
To put it bluntly, one doesn't outperform the market, like I am, without taking on risk. Furthermore, even though I am limiting my upside potential, by selling and hedging, I still own a fucking truckload of speculative stocks, like MVIS, HANS, RIMM, ACLI, VIP, NIHD, GMXR etc.
Finally, I still feel the market will be up, by more than 15% in 2007. However, right now, the bulls are being tested and will likely get their livers eaten for them-- by the fat, greasy bears. Not to worry, we (the bulls) will have our chance at roasting their fucking stomachs on Mother market's grill--sometime soon.
NOTE: Click here to watch the robot fuck the DOW-- live on CNBC.
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Silverchair: Pure Massacre
Today, my "calculator brain" malfunctioned, causing my holdings to drop a staggering 6.5%. In other words, I've been poleaxed.
Also, whoever owns that internets robot who sold all that stock, which caused the DOW to get raped for another 200+ points, should be dropped into a flaming volcano.
I did a lot of selling today. Pardon me for not posting "Fly Sells," I was too busy having my head sawed off.
All in all, I now have an 8% cash position--selling a myriad of big cap stocks.
With the cash, I will open up short term trading positions--long or short. Right now, I have no bias. I will use the market, like the filthy whore it is, to my advantage and try to get my money back. Fuckers.
Finally, I suspect the Asian markets will be skinned alive tonight. Best case scenario, the market "mushroom clouds" itself tomorrow, then rallies hard off the bottom.
If the market rallies, I will buy AKAM, AAPL, CENX, EQIX and HANS. However, if it falls down a manhole, I will sell short LFC, AGE, ATHR, ANAD and AMKR.
Off to go drink some "rich man's whiskey."
Fly Sell: LOCM
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, the polar ice caps will melt and destroy the Earth.
Carnage and Asshole Dip Buyers
Today's sell off is vicious, but not enough. After another 3%, I will be buying with both hands.
However, if you want to take a chance, start nibbling (25% positions) at the names that are down the most.
Bottom line: Don't get suckered into believing today is the bottom. Although we may bounce tomorrow, the market will likely trade lower-- until the bears get fat enough to eat.
Stocks on my radar:
Fly Buy: HANS
Disclaimer: If you buy HANS because of this post, the Chinese stock market will destroy your portfolio.
Position Updates: HANS
Considering the dire state of the markets, I am now scouring for day trades. This may be a good candidate.
Aside from HANS, I am now down, intra-fucking-day, 3.1%.
I will remember this day and make sure to sacrifice a goat or chicken, every February 27th-- for the rest of my fucking life.
UPDATE: This English fucker on the HANS conference call is a bloody idiot. If he were sitting next to me, I'd have my dog take a chunk of flesh out of his chest. Fucker.
He is making the stock go lower, with his bumbling asshattery.
Sector Spotlight: General Market
So far, the sellers are trying their hardest to make tomorrow's front page headline. In the process, they are cutting out the tongues of several bulls, especially those who play with Tech stocks.
On a day like this, I enjoy napping and reading my favorite magazine, The Robb Report. While it's true, there may be plenty of good dips to buy or stocks to short. I am not confident the bottom has been reached or if the selling will continue. Therefore, I will take my losses, like a man, and waste the day in true lazy man format. In other words, I will eat large sandwiches and drink big cans of Monster Energy Soda or sip on a dopio espresso-- from Starbucks of course.
Finally, I feel HANS is a screaming buy. The numbers were better than I expected. The stock is worth $55, selling at $36. Also, it's worth noting, several Tech stocks are firming up: NVDA, CTXS, LLTC, CAJ, NETL etc.
Quick Alert: Fly's Analyst Confronts HANS Seller
The numbers were better-than-expected. However, since the market is into crushing itself today, the stock is getting poleaxed. Nevertheless, my analyst is fucking irate.
Ready to Get Shot?
In case you haven't noticed, China fucked themselves last night, with its "exchange" losing 9% in one session. Now, as we speak, the European fuckers are getting poleaxed to the tune of 2% plus.
The way it looks now, I suspect we will lose more than 1.5%-- right away. And, maybe, if we are lucky, we can finally lose 2% in a single day--effectively shutting up all the assholes who have been clamoring for it.
Bottom line: If you are long the market, like me, you are completely screwed. The only thing left to do is take down some quick shorts or cut some losses--prior to the ax coming down on your neck.
If you are short: enjoy.
Here are some quick ways to hedge:
SMN: Double inverse Basic Materials
SZK: Double inverse Consumer Goods
SCC: Double inverse Consumer Services
SKF: Double inverse Financials
RXD: Double inverse Health Care
SIJ: Double inverse Industrials
DUG: Double inverse Oil & Gas
SRS: Double inverse Real Estate
SSG: Double inverse Semiconductors
REW: Double inverse Technology
SDP: Double inverse Utilities
QID: Double inverse NASDAQ
Monday, February 26, 2007
Fly's Marching Orders: Vote Lindsay
With that being said, the hostess, Lindsay Campbell, is up for some sort of internets trophy-- for best "hot vlogger." Although I feel the owner of that poll should be skinned and dipped in boiling tortilla soup; I still demand my viewers vote Lindsay.
Frankly, I don't know the other "hot vloggers" and would greatly enjoy seeing them lose-- like Al Gore in 2000.
Click here to steal the election.
With that being said, I will probably sit on my hands this week, and wait for a clear direction.
Shorting stocks is simply not an option-- considering private equity will buy just about anything right now. So, the only logical thing to do, according to my analyst, is to go long HANS.
Now, putting my nuts in the HANS vice can be very painful-- if the company disappoints. But, I feel the company is clicking on all cylinders and will smoke the estimates.
Or, maybe my excessive consumption of Monster Energy Soda is blurring my ability to invest, wisely.
Nonetheless, we will find out tomorrow.
NOTE: LOCM beat estimates, but is down in AH's trade. Look for the stock to reverse to the upside tomorrow.
Paula Deanda: Walk Away
No CC's today. I am too busy training for HANS earnings, due tomorrow.
Quick Alert: Fly's Analyst Prepares for HANS Earnings
He truly is a workhorse.
Fly Buy: LOCM
Disclaimer: If you buy LOCM because of this post, the dollar may devalue to the point where your life savings is not enough to buy a loaf of bread. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: ADY
UPDATE: I bought 500 ADY @ $22.31
Disclaimer: If you buy ADY because of this post, illegal Mexican workers will become illegal. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Utilities
Right now, I own 3 Utility stocks: DUK, PGN and GXP. But, compared to the "fuck you shorts, you're dead" moves in NRG, ETR, FE, EXC, PEG, CNP, FPL and D, my stocks are as fast as a solar race car. In other words, they fucking suck.
Aside from the Utilities, the market is starting to fade. I sense the sellers will try to make today an anti-climatic one for the bulls. Therefore, I am going long oil, via SU. Furthermore, I will avoid buying any Tech stocks today.
Finally, it's worth noting, March is typically a kick ass month for the Energy sector. Sometime this week, I will share my March seasonality report. Basically, Energy stocks go higher and kill shorts, almost everyday in March. The numbers are that good.
NOTE: HANS reports tomorrow. Are you ready to put your balls on the line?
Fly Buy: SU
Disclaimer: If you buy SU because of this post, the next time you go for a blood test, the needle may break in your arm. And, you may lose money.
Early Asshat of the Week Award: James Cramer
Hey, someone has to get this fucking award, why not Cramer? Last thing I need is for these asshat awards to start stacking up in my basement. I need to get these fuckers out the door.
Anyway, with the big dick-swingers from KKR eating TXU whole, someone is sure to look incredibly stupid. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, that man happens to be the Mad Money guru himself-- Jim Cramer.
On November 16, 2006, Jim's "Mad Money" opinion of TXU was bearish.
Cramer was bearish on Hewitt Associates (HEW), Men's Wearhouse (MW), TXU (TXU), Pacific Sunwear (PSUN), Amazon (AMZN), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Genesis Microchip (GNSS) and Target (TGT).On November 9th, 2006, Jim's "Mad Money" opinion of TXU was bearish.
Cramer was bearish on Crystallex (KRY), SanDisk (SNDK), InterContinental Exchange (ICE), TXU (TXU), Frontier Oil (FTO), Ahold (AHO), Senomyx (SNMX), DSW (DSW), Kinross Gold (KGC).However, just a day earlier, on November 8th, 2006, Jimmy was bullish on TXU. Such "flip-floppery" is unacceptable, and frankly-- very "asshatish."
Cramer was bullish on UAL (UAUA), Level 3 Communications (LVLT), Halliburton (HAL), Genentech (DNA), Amgen (AMGN), Celgene (CELG), Quest Software (QSFT), Transocean (RIG), Bema Gold (BGO), Yamana Gold (AUY), TXU (TXU).NOTE: TXU's earnings came out on Nov 7th. Therefore, if he wanted to go bearish, Nov. 8th was the day to do it-- not 9th. While it's true, such small details escape those with "goat-brains"-- it doesn't vamoose "The Fly."
Hence, the early Asshat of the week award goes to Jim Cramer.