Friday, October 27, 2006
Sugar Ray: When It´s Over
Ok, so Cramer is bullish, the market is soaring (except today) and everyone except Barry Ritholtz is bullish ;)
See, the problem with investors who have been beaten to a pulp, numerous times (1987,1992,1997,2000,2001,2002), is their lack of confidence in the markets. Because the market has tank jobbed and robbed the average investor countless times over the last 20 years-- does not mean it will happen now. As a matter of fact, sometimes the market enriches those who invest in it. News flash!
Meaning: Stop trying to time the top or outsmart the market. Furthermore, don't bitch-out at the first sign of weakness. Remember, we are in a bull market. In bull markets, you (the investor) are supposed to take advantage of dips and buy-- not panic and call for a crash.
As for today's GDP number, I feel it's worth ignoring. Get back to me with a 1.6% 4th quarter number, then I'll start selling.
Bottom line: The Semi's suck-- I'll give the bears that much. However, I do believe the market can still rise-- without the SOX. Instead of the SOX, Software, Internet, Networker and even the Retail stocks are showing leadership and are all on-fucking-fire.
As for me:
Well, I am so hot now, I should be renamed "Mr. Inferno." I say that because, despite today's slippage, I was up 0.9%. Moreover, my YTD returns are holding steady at 24.6%. I am enjoying nice upside in ALCO, GILD, DNA, GLBC, ERS, KEX, ACLI, RIMM, etc. As you can tell, I am feeling my oats. Hopefully, my positive attitude is not a harbinger of some sort of impending doom.
Thursday, October 26, 2006
Look, if you are still short the market: A. You are fucking ridiculously under qualified to manage money. B. If you insist, you better be a damn good stock picker.
Basically, it's easy to be long now, while making money on the short side is a rough grind. As many of you know, I was a skeptic of this rally and regularly ridiculed all the sloppy money sloshing around the SOX. But, after carefully analyzing the market for about 10 minutes, I realized the market is going higher because it wants to. Now, that may sound "fucktarded" or maybe simplistic, granted. But, the fashion show named Wall Street isn't always efficient. The best move and the easy money isn't always the logical choice. Furthermore, I find it meaningless wasting resources and time defending short positions, while I could be coining money in bullshit stocks, like ERS.
Bottom line: I feel we are in the middle of a bonafide bull market. A market that will burn the assholes who bet against it, because they don't like housing or are scared of $60 oil, Iran, N. Korea, Iraq and the boogieman. I have learned, the good ole' fashioned hard way, to never fight a strong trend. Right now, the trend is to kick the shorts in the balls, everyday, indefinitely, until your foot starts to hurt. Enjoy it while it lasts.
NOTE: Responding to someone's question of when to sell ERS:
I don't know. Frankly, the stock looks like it wants to paint $20. However, I will probably sell my position, sometime early next week.
NOTE II: There is a clandestine bull market in Foreign Telecom stocks. Check out the following stocks: MTA, CHL, TLS, TNE, TLK, TELN, MICC, NIHD, FTE, TEO, DT, TEF, KPN, SHEN, CHU, TU, XING, HTC, TMX, OTE, SKM, TKA, VNT, PT, NTT, SCM, PHI, NTL, ROS, VIP, TSU and AMX.
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
Johnny Cash: A Boy Named Sue
NOTE: Thursday and Friday I will be away meeting clients. I'll try post during the evening.
BEBE BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
AFFX MISSED; REV'S STRONG
JCI BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
KOMG MISSED; REV'S STRONG
RNOW MET; REV'S STRONG; GUIDES LOWER
SKX BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
FORM MET; REV'S STRONG
HRS BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
RARE GUIDES LOWER
LMNX MET; REV'S LIGHT
PHRM BEAT; REV'S LIGHT
BOBJ BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
EQIX MET; REV'S STRONGER; GUIDES HIGHER
LOOP BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
FFIV BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
MOBE MET; GUIDES LOWER
SMDI BEAT; REV'S LIGHT
SYMC MISSED; GUIDES LOWER
TQNT MET; REV'S STRONG
NETL MET; REV'S LIGHT
NEWP BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
CYH MET; REV'S STRONG
CVD MET; REV'S STRONG; GUIDES LOWER
NUVA BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
TSCO MISSED; REV'S STRONG; GUIDES HIGHER
TRID BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
RNT BEAT; REV'S LIGHT
BBSI MET; REV'S LIGHT
WOOF BEAT; REV'S LIGHT
SFNT REV'S STRONG; GUIDES HIGHER
PFWD BEAT; GUIDER HIGHER
MENT BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
TTEC BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S
ARBA BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S
SWFT BEAT; REV'S LIGHT
HGR MET; REV'S LIGHT
LSI BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
ARG BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
EPIC BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
MIPS REV'S STRONG
CCI MET; REV'S STRONG
APPB MISSED; GUIDES LOWER
USPI MISSED; GUIDES LOWER
MCHP BEAT; REV'S LIGHT; GUIDES LOWER
ZMH BEAT; REV'S LIGHT
AEA MISSED; REV'S STRONG
TCO BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
PRXL BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S
TALX BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S
TYL BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
EQ MISSED; GUIDES LOWER
Fly Buy: KEX
Disclaimer: KEX is reporting "earnings" after the bell. Therefore, buying it because of this post may cause sudden illness, coupled with massive hair loss.
Fly Buy: ORCL
Disclaimer: If you buy ORCL because of this post, bad things may happen to your portfolio and goldfish.
Fly Buy: MVIS
Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, you will likely lose money and may get a flat tire--the next time you drive to the gas station for lotto tickets.
Fly Buy: GLBC
Instead, I will put a disclaimer on each post.
I bought 1,000 GLBC @ $24.26.
Disclaimer: If you buy GLBC because I just posted this, you deserve to go bankrupt and have your windows egged on Halloween.
Position Updates: ERS, ACLI, VLO, ADBE, GLBC, EQIX, LOTTO TICKETS
NOTE: I get the feeling that some of my readers are relatively new to investing and may not be able to absorb losses and may lack the IQ power to differentiate a "diceroll" from a solid long term hold. Therefore, I will suspend my "FlyBuy" and "FlySell" posts. The point of this blog is to entertain and give a helping hand to those who may need it. By no means do I want people to follow my trades. Because of my asset base, I may take a different approach to the market than many of you. For example, I never invest in a stock and believe the current quote is the "bottom" or "top." Normally, I will buy a stock, continuously, over time at numerous price levels-- because of the amount of assets I am working with. Many of you have seen me do this with stocks like ATHR, VLO, RACK and several others. So, I will still rant and cuss out CNBC from time to time, but for now, I will keep my trades private.
Sector Spotlight: Natty
Today, we are seeing a tremendous bounce in the Semi's and a continuation of yesterday's bull run in energy related stocks.
Although I am bullish, at some point, the rising price of natty and oil will alert investors and possibly give a catalyst to sell. If natty/oil fails here and starts going back down, I feel tech stocks will enjoy another leg up. However, if natty breaks $8 and oil breaches $63, I may sell short every fucking retail stock with a PE north of 25.
So far, the earnings season has been robust. One of my core holdings, ACLI, reported kick ass numbers and is gapping higher today. Additionally, I really like the AMZN numbers and feel the internet sector is the place to be for the holiday shopping season.
As for Natty:
Well, its on fucking fire.
The following Natural Gas stocks have mojo:
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
Karajan: Beethoven Symphony No.9
ESLR MET; REV'S STRONG
PSSI MET; REV'S STRONG
AMZN BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
NTRI BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
CKFR BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES LOWER
CTX MISSED; GUIDES LOWER
SCSS MET; LIGHT ON REV'S
FLEX MET; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES LOWER
CLMS MISSED; ANNOUNCES BUYBACK
IDTI BEAT; ANNOUNCES STOCK BUYBACK
ULTI MET; REV'S STRONG
WBSN BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
CYMI BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S;GUIDES LOWER
AMSG MET; LIGHT ON REV'S
TZIX BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
STX BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
GSIG MISSED; REV'S STRONG; GUIDES LOWER
SIE BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
GLW BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES LOWER
AFL BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
RFMD BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S
GYI BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES LOWER
CHRW BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S
TNB BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S
BHS LOWERS GUIDANCE
GNSS BEATS; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES LOWER
ESRX BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES HIGHER
GR ANNOUNCES SHARE BUYBACK
ADI LOWERS GUIDANCE
NVTL BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
BTUI MISSED; GUIDES LOWER
ATAC BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
SWK BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
PLT BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
EFII MISSED; GUIDES LOWER
CTGX BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES LOWER
SCSS MET; GUIDES HIGHER
CR BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES LOWER
Position Updates: VLO
I mean, evey fucking day there is a new sentiment. Frankly, I am losing my patience with my oil holdings, although I won't sell them since they are part of my asset allocation. Nonetheless, because of the lack of consistancy, I really have little conviction putting new money to work in the oils.
Instead, I'd rather "place my bets" on the Networker, Software or Internet sectors.
Fly Buy: DNA
Fly Buy: MVIS
Sector Spotlight: Metals
Within the Metals, I like ERS, PCU, PD, X and NUE. However, I lack the conviction to go out and take down positions in the sector. Right now, I own a nominal amount of ERS-- and that's it.
Bottom line: Hot money is back in the Metals, are you man enough to chase it?
The following Metal stocks have mojo:
Monday, October 23, 2006
Check this out.
Sigur Ros: Njosnavelin (Live)
Can we be setting up for a similar poleaxing?
I doubt it.
Back then, the Nazz was up more than 50%, now we are barely up 7%. Plus, company fundamentals and balance sheets are far stronger now. I guess, the only parallel is the "stupid investor" gunning up stocks that are utter garbage. Also, expectations are set so high that if a company should disappoint (think SNDK, CAT or CTXS), its stock price will get "jailhoused." However, efficient markets sort these discrepancies out over time.
Today, I covered the last of my ATHR short. I didn't want to be short-- going into earnings this evening. I ended up making a small profit. Aside from a minor position in MZZ, I am now 100% long.
Over the next several days, I intend on buying more MVIS, GLBC, CTXS and DNA. In short, I feel the market is cheap and will surprise everyone with above average 4th quarter performance.
Fly Buy: GLBC
Fly Buy: MVISW
Fly Buy: MVIS
NOTE: My only concern about this rally is the lack of participation from the Trannies.
Fly Buy: ATHR
Sector Spotlight: Internet
Despite a big earnings warning from the slobs at SLAB, the stock is up. So, instead of fighting the crowd, I have decided to be herded, baaahhh.
One sector to keep in mind, when fishing for idea's, is the Internet. There is still massive growth in the industry, and the possibility of consolidation--due to YHOO's growth deficiencies. Plus, we are entering the holiday shopping season, traditionally a very strong time for the dot commers.
Bottom line: Besides the Networkers, I like the action in the Internet sector and feel they should be accumulated.
NOTE: Please take the new "Fly Survey." What will the next Fed move be?
The following Internet stocks have mojo: