Fly on WallStreet

Finally, I am done with client meetings and may resume my daily routine of drinking mulitple cans of energy soda, blogging, and oh yeah-- managing money.

Ok, so Cramer is bullish, the market is soaring (except today) and everyone except Barry Ritholtz is bullish ;)

So what?

See, the problem with investors who have been beaten to a pulp, numerous times (1987,1992,1997,2000,2001,2002), is their lack of confidence in the markets. Because the market has tank jobbed and robbed the average investor countless times over the last 20 years-- does not mean it will happen now. As a matter of fact, sometimes the market enriches those who invest in it. News flash!

Meaning: Stop trying to time the top or outsmart the market. Furthermore, don't bitch-out at the first sign of weakness. Remember, we are in a bull market. In bull markets, you (the investor) are supposed to take advantage of dips and buy-- not panic and call for a crash.

As for today's GDP number, I feel it's worth ignoring. Get back to me with a 1.6% 4th quarter number, then I'll start selling.

Bottom line: The Semi's suck-- I'll give the bears that much. However, I do believe the market can still rise-- without the SOX. Instead of the SOX, Software, Internet, Networker and even the Retail stocks are showing leadership and are all on-fucking-fire.

As for me:

Well, I am so hot now, I should be renamed "Mr. Inferno." I say that because, despite today's slippage, I was up 0.9%. Moreover, my YTD returns are holding steady at 24.6%. I am enjoying nice upside in ALCO, GILD, DNA, GLBC, ERS, KEX, ACLI, RIMM, etc. As you can tell, I am feeling my oats. Hopefully, my positive attitude is not a harbinger of some sort of impending doom.

I'm back. After a day of meetings and nightmare commutes, I feel like swallowing an entire bottle of Jack--glass and all.

Look, if you are still short the market: A. You are fucking ridiculously under qualified to manage money. B. If you insist, you better be a damn good stock picker.

Basically, it's easy to be long now, while making money on the short side is a rough grind. As many of you know, I was a skeptic of this rally and regularly ridiculed all the sloppy money sloshing around the SOX. But, after carefully analyzing the market for about 10 minutes, I realized the market is going higher because it wants to. Now, that may sound "fucktarded" or maybe simplistic, granted. But, the fashion show named Wall Street isn't always efficient. The best move and the easy money isn't always the logical choice. Furthermore, I find it meaningless wasting resources and time defending short positions, while I could be coining money in bullshit stocks, like ERS.

Bottom line: I feel we are in the middle of a bonafide bull market. A market that will burn the assholes who bet against it, because they don't like housing or are scared of $60 oil, Iran, N. Korea, Iraq and the boogieman. I have learned, the good ole' fashioned hard way, to never fight a strong trend. Right now, the trend is to kick the shorts in the balls, everyday, indefinitely, until your foot starts to hurt. Enjoy it while it lasts.

NOTE: Responding to someone's question of when to sell ERS:

I don't know. Frankly, the stock looks like it wants to paint $20. However, I will probably sell my position, sometime early next week.

NOTE II: There is a clandestine bull market in Foreign Telecom stocks. Check out the following stocks: MTA, CHL, TLS, TNE, TLK, TELN, MICC, NIHD, FTE, TEO, DT, TEF, KPN, SHEN, CHU, TU, XING, HTC, TMX, OTE, SKM, TKA, VNT, PT, NTT, SCM, PHI, NTL, ROS, VIP, TSU and AMX.

While I am away, take some time to peruse Notable Calls. Frankly, 90% of the financial blogs out there are fucktarded. However, this one is worth a daily click.

NOTE: Thursday and Friday I will be away meeting clients. I'll try post during the evening.

GB BEAT
BEBE BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
AFFX MISSED; REV'S STRONG
JCI BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
ABAX MISSED
ASCA BEAT
VAR BEAT
KOMG MISSED; REV'S STRONG
RNOW MET; REV'S STRONG; GUIDES LOWER
ARRS BEAT
ATRM BEAT
SKX BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
FORM MET; REV'S STRONG
SRCL BEAT
KTO BEAT
HRS BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
RARE GUIDES LOWER
LMNX MET; REV'S LIGHT
NVT BEAT
GSIC BEAT
HAR BEAT
PHRM BEAT; REV'S LIGHT
PACR BEAT
BOBJ BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
EQIX MET; REV'S STRONGER; GUIDES HIGHER
MTSN MET
LOOP BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
EXFO MISSED
FFIV BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
MOBE MET; GUIDES LOWER
IPAR BEAT
MRVC BEAT
SMDI BEAT; REV'S LIGHT
SYMC MISSED; GUIDES LOWER
TQNT MET; REV'S STRONG
NETL MET; REV'S LIGHT
NEWP BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
CYH MET; REV'S STRONG
CVD MET; REV'S STRONG; GUIDES LOWER
NUVA BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
CDNS BEAT
TSCO MISSED; REV'S STRONG; GUIDES HIGHER
NABI MISSED
MCRI BEAT
PNSN BEAT
CYTC BEAT
TRID BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
RNT BEAT; REV'S LIGHT
BBSI MET; REV'S LIGHT
HLIT BEAT
WOOF BEAT; REV'S LIGHT
EPAY BEAT
SFNT REV'S STRONG; GUIDES HIGHER
PFWD BEAT; GUIDER HIGHER
MENT BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
GDI BEAT
PYX BEAT
TTEC BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S
ARBA BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S
SWFT BEAT; REV'S LIGHT
HGR MET; REV'S LIGHT
ACTU BEAT
LSI BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
ARG BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
EPIC BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
MIPS REV'S STRONG
CCI MET; REV'S STRONG
AEIS BEAT
APPB MISSED; GUIDES LOWER
USPI MISSED; GUIDES LOWER
MCHP BEAT; REV'S LIGHT; GUIDES LOWER
ZMH BEAT; REV'S LIGHT
PCTI BEAT
NARA BEAT
STTS MET
AEA MISSED; REV'S STRONG
CNS BEAT
TCO BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
PRXL BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S
TALX BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S
TYL BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
EQ MISSED; GUIDES LOWER

I bought 10,000 KEX @ $34.54.

Disclaimer: KEX is reporting "earnings" after the bell. Therefore, buying it because of this post may cause sudden illness, coupled with massive hair loss.

I bought 15,000 ORCL @ $18.62.

Disclaimer: If you buy ORCL because of this post, bad things may happen to your portfolio and goldfish.

I bought 10,000 shares of MVIS @ $2.02.

Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, you will likely lose money and may get a flat tire--the next time you drive to the gas station for lotto tickets.

As you can see, my suspension of "FlyBuy" posts has expired. It lasted for a long 10 minutes.

Instead, I will put a disclaimer on each post.

I bought 1,000 GLBC @ $24.26.

Disclaimer: If you buy GLBC because I just posted this, you deserve to go bankrupt and have your windows egged on Halloween.

Are all on fucking fire.

NOTE: I get the feeling that some of my readers are relatively new to investing and may not be able to absorb losses and may lack the IQ power to differentiate a "diceroll" from a solid long term hold. Therefore, I will suspend my "FlyBuy" and "FlySell" posts. The point of this blog is to entertain and give a helping hand to those who may need it. By no means do I want people to follow my trades. Because of my asset base, I may take a different approach to the market than many of you. For example, I never invest in a stock and believe the current quote is the "bottom" or "top." Normally, I will buy a stock, continuously, over time at numerous price levels-- because of the amount of assets I am working with. Many of you have seen me do this with stocks like ATHR, VLO, RACK and several others. So, I will still rant and cuss out CNBC from time to time, but for now, I will keep my trades private.

Sorry for the delay, I was in meetings all morning.

Today, we are seeing a tremendous bounce in the Semi's and a continuation of yesterday's bull run in energy related stocks.

Although I am bullish, at some point, the rising price of natty and oil will alert investors and possibly give a catalyst to sell. If natty/oil fails here and starts going back down, I feel tech stocks will enjoy another leg up. However, if natty breaks $8 and oil breaches $63, I may sell short every fucking retail stock with a PE north of 25.

So far, the earnings season has been robust. One of my core holdings, ACLI, reported kick ass numbers and is gapping higher today. Additionally, I really like the AMZN numbers and feel the internet sector is the place to be for the holiday shopping season.

As for Natty:

Well, its on fucking fire.

The following Natural Gas stocks have mojo:

SWN +5.8%
TXCO +5.2%
GGR +4.5%
NGAS +4.3%
TRGL +4%
BEXP +3.7%

IM BEAT
CSCD BEAT
ESLR MET; REV'S STRONG
PSSI MET; REV'S STRONG
ANAD MISSES
WIRE MISSED
AMZN BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
NTRI BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
CKFR BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES LOWER
CENX MISSED
FISV BEAT
CTX MISSED; GUIDES LOWER
SCSS MET; LIGHT ON REV'S
FLEX MET; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES LOWER
FADV BEAT
DV BEAT
VOCS BEAT
BWLD BEAT
HUBG BEAT
CLMS MISSED; ANNOUNCES BUYBACK
AMP BEAT
KNL BEAT
IDTI BEAT; ANNOUNCES STOCK BUYBACK
ULTI MET; REV'S STRONG
WBSN BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
CYMI BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S;GUIDES LOWER
MANH BEAT
AMSG MET; LIGHT ON REV'S
SEAB BEAT
CSGS BEAT
TZIX BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
STX BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
CRI BEAT
GSIG MISSED; REV'S STRONG; GUIDES LOWER
ENWV BEAT
AV BEAT
CLZR BEAT
LDIS BEAT
FDRY BEAT
SIE BEAT; GUIDES HIGHER
GLW BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES LOWER
ACF BEAT
AFL BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
RFMD BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S
GYI BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES LOWER
CHRW BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S
TNB BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S
BHS LOWERS GUIDANCE
GNSS BEATS; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES LOWER
SUPX BEAT
TRMB BEAT
ESRX BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES HIGHER
QLGC BEAT
AJG BEAT
GR ANNOUNCES SHARE BUYBACK
ADI LOWERS GUIDANCE
ACTL BEAT
NBR BEAT
NVTL BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
BTUI MISSED; GUIDES LOWER
MUR BEAT
ATAC BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
DOV MISSED
OMM BEAT
SWK BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
PLT BEAT; GUIDES LOWER
EEFT BEAT
EFII MISSED; GUIDES LOWER
ACLI BEAT
CTGX BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES LOWER
KLAC BEAT
IPCR BEAT
SCSS MET; GUIDES HIGHER
WPP MISSED
ACE MISSED
CR BEAT; LIGHT ON REV'S; GUIDES LOWER

Being long oil stocks is like living in a funny house with nothing but Mad Money re-runs as a sole source of inane entertainment.

I mean, evey fucking day there is a new sentiment. Frankly, I am losing my patience with my oil holdings, although I won't sell them since they are part of my asset allocation. Nonetheless, because of the lack of consistancy, I really have little conviction putting new money to work in the oils.

Instead, I'd rather "place my bets" on the Networker, Software or Internet sectors.

I bought 1,000 DNA @ $83.06.

I bought 15,000 shares of MVIS @ $2.17.

Commodity based stocks are rallying again-- specifically oil and steel. I wonder if the general market can continue going higher with commodities. If you recall, part of the reason why the Fed went apeshit with interest rates was due to high commodity prices. So, with metal stocks on the rise, keep one eye on the indices and another on the Fed.

Within the Metals, I like ERS, PCU, PD, X and NUE. However, I lack the conviction to go out and take down positions in the sector. Right now, I own a nominal amount of ERS-- and that's it.

Bottom line: Hot money is back in the Metals, are you man enough to chase it?

The following Metal stocks have mojo:

NUE +7.1%
ERS +5.3%
STLD +5.1%
TIE +5%
X +5%
ZEUS +4%

Check this out.

In recent years, the only time the market averted a fall market slide was in 2003. If you recall, 2003 was a great market, as the U.S. economy emerged from death to making people rich again. However, because of investor stupidity, the market went up too much and got poleaxed, early 2004.

Can we be setting up for a similar poleaxing?

I doubt it.

Back then, the Nazz was up more than 50%, now we are barely up 7%. Plus, company fundamentals and balance sheets are far stronger now. I guess, the only parallel is the "stupid investor" gunning up stocks that are utter garbage. Also, expectations are set so high that if a company should disappoint (think SNDK, CAT or CTXS), its stock price will get "jailhoused." However, efficient markets sort these discrepancies out over time.

Today, I covered the last of my ATHR short. I didn't want to be short-- going into earnings this evening. I ended up making a small profit. Aside from a minor position in MZZ, I am now 100% long.

Over the next several days, I intend on buying more MVIS, GLBC, CTXS and DNA. In short, I feel the market is cheap and will surprise everyone with above average 4th quarter performance.

# posted by Broker A @ 4:16 PM 9 comments