Friday, November 24, 2006
Sector Spotlight: Online Retail
After I stuff my face with a sufficient amount of candied yams, I will likely take the family over to the local mall for some early Christmas shopping.
From a stock perspective, I don't like the retailers. I feel the expectations are way too high and there is a good chance the sector may selloff. However, I am bullish on the online retailers, like AMZN and EBAY.
Aside from AMZN and EBAY, who else stands to benefit from the great spender?
The following e-commerce stocks are on my radar:
EBAY, AMZN, OSTK, REDE, NILE, BFLY, SNCR, ICCA, APTM, GMKT (S. Korean), LQDT and IGLD.
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
Coldplay: Swallowed in the sea
Fly Buy: TLAB
Disclaimer: If you buy TLAB because of this post, Bob Pisani may buy the house next to yours. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: SNDK
Disclaimer: If you buy SNDK because of this post, you may drop your Thanksgiving turkey, on the way to the dinner table. And, you may lose money.
Quick Alert: Bullshit on the Rise
Now, there is two ways to look at this pattern.
On one hand, it's a great way to hit the bases loaded homerun. Conversely, market tops are usually marked by euphoria in micro-small cap garbage.
Bottom line: Be careful, but have fun while it lasts. It could last awhile.
UPDATE: I have decided to put my "balls on the line" and suggest SNDK will close up today. If it doesn't, well, I will have to eat an entire turkey by myself.
Sector Spotlight: Networkers
Additionally, there is ample strength in the Homebuilders, Semiconductors and Chemical stocks too. However, once again, my SNDK position is fucking stabbing me in the heart-- down while everything else is green.
If you are long SNDK, you really have to think end game and ignore day to day fluctuations. SNDK is a juggernaut. So far, the bears in the stock just don't know it yet. Stay tuned.
Aside from that, I feel the market will s l o w l y drift higher today. Believe me, the sellers are not going to get in the way of black Friday. Fuckers.
NOTE: SMDI goes to $10.
The following Networkers have mojo:
Position Updates: SMDI
Research Notable Mentions II : Jefferies believes that despite the recent rally, upside remains to semiconductor stocks. While estimates and growth expectations post CQ3 earnings season are lower, they think sentiment remains positive driven by continued robust end markets in PCs and Wireless Handsets. Among RF/wireless semiconductor companies, they continue to like TXN, QCOM and RFMD. They continue to be positive on INTC, as co should benefit form a healthy PC market and share gains. They also like ARXX and SMDI as their favorite mid/small-cap ideas.
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Rakim: In the Ghetto
Seriously, my intra-day screens are showing rampart speculation in penny stocks and fucking Chinese names. People are literally buying stocks because the word "China" is in the company name. If that is not fucktarded, I don't know what is.
Naturally, because micro-caps are exploding, my MVIS did exceptionally well, up 13%. However, I got poleaxed on SNDK-- which really pissed me off today.
All in all, I had a big day, up 1.8% for the day.
As for the general market:
Everything but Biotech and Semiconductors did well, especially Internet and Steel. My best bet is for more green tomorrow.
Quick Alert: Internet / Chinese Stocks on Fire
Fly Buy: SNDK
Disclaimer: If you buy SNDK because of this post, your Thanksgiving turkey may come alive and eat all of your stuffing. And, you may lose money.
Position Updates: MVIS
Position Updates: ADBE
Sector Spotlight: Energy
For months, oil/gas stocks have taken a back seat to high multiple tech's. However, the natural speculator in me feels that if NYC weather stays frosty, then I ought to be positioning, now, in a few oil/gas stocks.
Currently, my largest oil holding is VLO. However, I also have positions in GMXR,UPL, SU, VSE, NGAS, CEO, TSO, CHK and SWN.
Aside from oil/gas:
The market looks like it's setting up to run higher. I am noticing strength in Gold, Steel, Internet and Wireless stocks.
Bottom line: Oil/gas looks like the leader today. But, don't count out the techies from making a late day run.
NOTE: MVIS turning around today. And, please take the new "Fly Survey." Are you Bullish or Bearish on the markets?
The following Energy stocks have mojo:
Monday, November 20, 2006
Rage Against the Machine: Bulls On Parade
Also, I would like to thank the pain I felt-- when short BRCM and SiRF. Without it, I doubt I would have covered them and I probably would be fixing to jump down an elevator-less elevator shaft-- right about now.
I sense the market is setting up to fucking roast the sellers, for Thanksgiving. Please, if you are short, grab a hedge or two.
During today's action, I was most impressed with the Semi's. Aside from my fav, SNDK, I liked the bullishness in MRVL, NVLS, BRCM, TER and WFR.
Bottom line: This is a bull market, bitch.
NOTE: Despite MVIS sucking rocks, I am confident that it will turn up-- sometime soon.
Late Day Thought
Shorting into Thanksgiving...
If you are really hell bent on shorting stocks, consider doing it Friday-- not before. If early reports indicate the consumer is going to sit this Christmas out-- stocks will tank. However, I doubt this year will be any different from previous spending seasons.
I will say, the bulls are running out of catalysts to drive stocks higher. At some point, the buyers will exhaust themselves and we may finally get a pullback-- just not yet.
NOTE: If you like buying mutual funds, take a look at the Seligman Communications Fund (SLMCX)-- up 16.5% year to date. It is a traditional tech fund that is making big bets on internet security. Top holdings are MFE, SYMC, SNPS, VRSN, KLAC, STX, AAPL, CYMI, DOX and QCOM. I know the manager (Paul Wicke) and he knows his stuff.
Sector Spotlight: Tech
Presto, the market is green and kicking the sellers in the nuts, again.
Let me clarify: The market will NEVER trade down for more than 2 hours again, NEVER! As long as we are chockful of high multiple Tech stock, there will always be "smart money" available to carpet bomb the sellers.
I swear to you, I have turned off the thinking mechanism inside my brain and have decided to just go long-- until it doesn't work anymore. I feel that is the only way I could participate in this bull market, without worrying about driving off a fucking cliff.
As for Tech:
Once again, they look great. Not to sound like a broken record, but SNDK looks bound for low 50's. Also, I like what I am seeing in NVLS, RIMM, LCRD, KNOT, REDF, SIFY, NTES, LQDT, NTGR, MRVL and MSFT.
NOTE: I knew something was up with the Metals on Friday. PD caught a bid. Aside from PD, I think PCU and AL are attractive takeover candidates. Furthermore, I like ERS and CLF for a trade.