Friday, October 13, 2006
Have a great weekend.
On Tuesday, the following companies are reporting 3rd quarter earnings results:
ADTN, BOT, CSX, EMC, INTC, IBM, JNJ, LLTC, MER, MOT, NCC, NVLS, WIT and YHOO.
Additionally, we will get a slew of economic data and it will be interesting to see how the market adjusts to colder weather. Meaning: Will oil jump? And if so, will the market hold its gains?
Recently, I have been forced to go long stock, despite my deep convictions that everyone is fucking moonbat crazy. To date, I maintain large positions in VLO, GD, DNA and SNDK. However, recently, I have been trading more often, scalping profits in EQIX and RACK (short), while taking on new trading positions, such as GLBC and ATHR (short).
Finally, if you are a bull, you must be concerned with the psychotic runs many micro-cap stocks have been on, lately. Stocks like BKHM, VTSS, CMOS, BITS, TPC, LPTH, CMGI, VRSO, CYTR, CYTO, ACOR, AGEN and scores more are ramping, but they are not leadership. They are 3rd rate companies-- that are attracting new money from the gambler class. The guy who is out to make 100% tomorrow. The downside to the gambler is his inability to sustain large losses, causing the hot stock to plummet-- once cooler heads prevail.
I have noticed, when the micro caps start running, the rally is mature and its time to get out.
The question that is the most difficult to answer is: When? Can't I milk one more trade?
Perhaps the answers to those questions and more will be answered Tuesday evening.
Quick Alert: SuperBull
The sector that is just ridiculous today is the Semi's. Many of these stocks are up more than 5%-- as short sellers get bought-the-fuck-out by margin clerks.
The stock that stands out the most, to me, is LRCX +6.7%.
Despite my bearish sentiment on the semi's, it doesn't look like anything can stop these runaway trains today.
Fly Buy: GLBC
Fly Buy: CTXS
Fly Sell: EQIX
Fly Sell: ATHR
Sector Spotlight: Bird Flu Stocks
Specifically, I like the action in EQIX, NVEC, ADBE, AMD, CRM, BITS, BRCM, ATE, SNE and CHINA. However, I have no plans to commit fresh dollars to long positions-- due to the extent of the recent run.
If you are short U.S. equities, notable weakness is abundant in Homebuilders, Drugs and Retail.
Finally, its worth noting Energy and Precious Metal stocks rallying nicely off recent lows and appear to be under accumulation, again. As for oil, record snow in Detroit is reminding people that we need oil for the winter. Duh.
Almost forgot. Due to seasonality and the prospect of the Bird Flu becoming headline news this winter, I will share my "Bird Flu stock list."
GNBT, HEPH, DSCO, HEB, GILD, GTHA, EMFP, STTK, NVAX, AVAN, CPHD, CARN, QDEL, CRXL, SNY, BCRX, GSK, MBRX, AOB, PPHM, NVS, MEDI, VICL, AVII, SIGA, APT, NNVC, SVA and AMAR.
NOTE: Most of the stocks above are really bad companies and were found during last years Bird Flu pandemic scare. If you have any that may be worth a look, please share.
Thursday, October 12, 2006
Gin Blossoms: Follow You Down
All of the guys who are trying to outsmart the market are feeling some serious pain now, short U.S. equities; while, Joey Bag-o-Donuts is bankrolling and buying a new Benz. How you doin'?
Too many smart fuckers are short stocks. They are stuck and dying in a reverse death spiral. Furthermore, because of the markets momentum, coupled with a lot of smart guys short stocks, this run is likely to continue-- until max pain.
Yesterday, I bulked up on my ATHR short, but luckily was spared today--as the stock barely moved. Even though things look great, I still feel it makes sense to start setting up some shorts. There is going to be a day, sometime soon, when Joey Bag-o-Donuts stops buying the dips and the smart and miserable fuckers take control.
Again, just to recap:
The market is not done going up because of massive short interest and new money sloshing into U.S. equities. Moreover, look for stocks that are too extended and start selling into rallies, like today.
For now, I will look for quick trades, in order to be flexible and to be more like Joey.
NOTE: My EQIX position looks the best out of all my tech stocks.
Quick Alert: Watch Oil
Additionally, energy stocks look very good for momentum and value.
Again, my fav's are: VLO, SU, CEO and TSO.
Fly Buy: CORS
Quick Alert: Too Bullish
If shorting is your game, now may be a good time to look for some good setups.
Comic Relief: Crazy Dog
Sector Spotlight: Networkers
In my opinion, the place to be , if you like tech, is the Networkers. Due to red hot demand for video (YouTube) and music online, companies that provide bandwidth services to popular websites are enjoying terrific stock runs. Unfortunately, every once in awhile, you get fucked like I did-- selling VSTH, on the news of losing their biggest customer, and then it gets fucking bought out for a 27% premium 2 days later. Again, I say to the rumor millers at thestreet.com (Stocks under $10 Guys): Fuck You and fuck you.
Within the Networkers, my favorites are: EQIX, GLBC, AKAM, FNSR and SVVS.
Regarding FDRY (recent position of mine): I changed my mind and sold out the position, due to valuation concerns.
Finally, I do believe the market can go higher. However, I am bearish on the Semiconductor sector. Therefore, I have started to bulk up on my ATHR short. Although, they may have a good qt., any company that has UTSI as a 10%+ customer is worth betting against.
The following Networker stocks have mojo:
Fly Sell: FDRY
Fly Sell: VSTH
Fly Buy: GLBC
Fly Buy: EQIX
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
Big Daddy Kane: Ain't no half steppin
The market had a difficult time digesting hawkish Fed comments, coupled with a potential act of terrorism. As a result, despite big numbers out of LRCX after the close, I feel comfortable selling some stocks for a trade.
The red flags in today's market were the brokers and asset managers, led by LM and AMTD. It goes without saying, the market cannot continue to run, without the Financials.
On the flipside, today's surge in the Semi's was very encouraging for the bull story. I suspect, barring confirmation that terrorism was to blame for today's "accident," the bulls and bears will battle for control of the broader indices tomorrow.
The bears will point to LM, while the bulls will pump LRCX.
Needless to say, we live in interesting times.
UPDATE: Get the fuck out of here! The airplane was piloted by Yankee pitcher Corey Lidle? Fucking Yankees.
NOTE: Had the Yankees done their job and beat the Tigers, this tragedy would never have occurred. Weird twist of fate.
UPDATE II: Listening to the LRCX CEO on the conference call is lowering my IQ. This guy is so full of shit, he is single handedly driving the stock into the red. The qt. is not nearly as good as first reported.
Fly Sell: ATHR
UPDATE: I sold short 10,000 @ $20.40.
Weird Note: 10/11/06 backwards is 9/11/01. Whoa.
Quick Alert: The Fed Hates Stocks
Let's see if the psychopath dip-buyers stick their necks out.
Quick Alert: Mixed Signals
Also, the brokers are getting raped, thanks to LM.
Bottom line: I'd be shocked to see the market go deep into green today.
Fly Buy: FDRY
Fly Sell: VSTH
Fly Buy: GLBC
Fly Buy: EQIX
Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors
If you are a bear, you have to love the mismanagement at LM-- with their monster earnings miss. I firmly believe the market will plunge if we get too many bad reports. So far, I am not impressed with the quality of earnings.
As for the semiconductors, they're having a big day, up 1.1%. It appears the dip-buyers are out in full force today, buying the hell out of stocks like RMBS, AMKR and SLAB. With my money, I have little desire to buy any SOX stocks. I believe the fundamentals are weakening and are at risk to disappoint on earnings.
My favorite sector is still the Networkers.
The following Semiconductor stocks have mojo:
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
DJ Tiesto: Traffic
I am seeing a lot of buying in select internet names, on the heels of YouTube selling out to the Googsters. Stocks like KNOT, DIET, RATE, ADAM and QPSA are on fucking fire. I guess the speculation is that YHOO is going to make an acquisition to prevent their fucking death spiral from happening. Seriously, YHOO is the new AOL.
Also, since oil is going down the drain, retailers are incredibly strong. With my money, I like WFMI, despite killer spinach, and PTRY.
All in all, the market looks fantastic. However, I must admit feeling this way, right before previous potfolio annihlilations. So, with that being said, I always consider a bull market suspect, until I cash in my chips.
NOTE: One of my biggest dogs, ERS, had a huge move today. Considering the massive short position, I think its worth keeping on the radar.
AA reported a miss. They suck.
VOXX missed big.
LM guides lower
Position Updates: DNA, ACLI
Good core holdings.
Sector Spotlight: Transports
We are also seeing ridiculous gains in the Homebuilders (+3.4%). The usual bullshit stocks are up. I hate that group.
The only signs of weakness today are in the Networkers (-1.1%), which have quietly offered tech leadership during the recent rally. Granted, many of these stocks are up big over the last three months. Nonetheless, seeing stocks like CIEND and INPH get knifed, on no news, kind of sucks.
Finally, I anticipate the market will slowly drift higher, as investors position themselves for the beginning of the earnings season.
UPDATE: Apparently, the fuckers at Citi were "uninspired" by CIEND's analyst day. Fuck You.
CIEN no new information out of analyst day@SBSH
Citigroup found CIEN's analyst day "uninspiring" and they feel it's too early to get a read on the quarter as it is typically back-end loaded.
The following Trannies have mojo:
Monday, October 09, 2006
Staind: So Far Away
Everyday the market powers forward, on good news or bad-- it doesn't matter. Frankly, it's starting to get a little too easy, considering we are now entering the earnings season priced for perfection.
May God protect the dip-buyers if earnings come in less than stellar. If so, I anticipate sharp sell-off's in everything high multiple. This is going to be a pivotal earnings season for the market.
Furthermore, until the "Goldilocks" economic story can be disproven, the market looks ripe to keep going higher.
There really isn't much to say.
As for today's markets:
We saw considerable gains in the Metal, Alt. Energy, Homebuilder and Semiconductor stocks. And, minor losses were spotted in Oil, Telecom and Networking stocks.
NOTE: It's official! GOOG is buying YouTube for 1.65 billion. A fucking steal! No joke. I feel GOOG is going to enjoy another leg up in stock price-- due to this YouTube deal. A great deal for GOOG shareholders. YHOO is fucking doomed.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
MNCS, CME, FACT, ITG, PDA, SVU, PZZI, CMG, IMKTA, MAYS, BMHC, BHS, RYL, OHB, BLDR, HOV, IPII, TEX, DE, CHNR, ENG, ABLE, PEIX, ARTW, VSE, GPRE, ANDE, ADM, MGPI, AEZ, SPWR, PDRT, NEU, BDCO, CFW, HSR, ERS, ATI, X, NUE, AOB, DNA, NRPH, SHPGY, MDV, ISIS, HRT, MATK, NABI, RIGL, BLUD, ACAD, BSML, IFLO, ACOR, GNBT, AOB, TZOO, GOAM, MAMA, MIVA, IGLD, KNOT, GM, GROW, QPSA, CNVR, NTRT, HAUP, ICGE, XING, CTDC, FTGX, AGR, FNSR, INPH, NWK, IKAN, ONT, TRBM, AVCI, GEX, NETL, JAKK, BAMM, LF, JCG, BID, BONT, SCVL, NVDA, OLED, CSPI, ININ, SMSI, INFY, BMC, NWRE, AMKR, ATHR, MOSY, NVLS, LSCC, NSM, VECO, DSTI, KLAC, HITT, PLXT, VSEA, TSEM, HIMX, WFR, CVC, TASR, RIMM, LXK, DTLK, XRTX, DECC, TKG, PGWC, EPG, DIL, PGTI, INWK, TRGT, LUNA, GRRF, EVR, CVLT, SFLY, PEIX, CNXS, MRBK, MEMY, NEOL, SURG, VEXP, ADL, COR, SIM, BW, ARC, SYX, GY and AXL.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
PNC, BOT, KB, DRYS, ACP, URRE, PLLL, XNL, WRES, JDO, FPP, SATC, HOKU, IPSU, RTK, ESRX, CHTT, NTMD, ACAM, BBC, YMI, PRZ, XOM, EWEB, SFE, DIET, WZEN, PWAV, DPW, AWRE, AVNX, CIEND, AFOP, VWPT, MSPD, PXG, EVST, ATAR,, IBIS,VSTH,TGAL, AMD, PLAY, MFLX, CAMT, MVIS, BITS, IMX, LPL, STX, TAR, TPC, ULCM, WTT, ATEC, MA, TWLL, MATR, PRSC, MOBE, GOL and BGO.
Fly Buy: FNSR
Fly Buy: FDRY
Fly Buy: EQIX
UPDATE: Here is an article I wrote on EQIX, earlier this year.
Fly Sell: VSTH
NOTE: It looks like they lost the Myspace.com deal. Fuckers.
Sector Spotlight: Metals
Not only is spinach a deadly treat, now they are reporting findings of ecoli in ground beef and lettuce too. What the fuck.
Despite the various ways armageddon is trying to position itself, the market, led by dip-buyers, wants to go higher.
However, before you go out and buy the highest multiple stock on your monitor, remember earnings season has officially begun and many companies (as always) will disappoint. For now, I will remain bullish, until I see some really bad MU type earnings repeat itself.
As for the Metals:
I am not sure whether this is a dead cat bounce or a real break out, but the index is up 4.4% today. If you are an inflation hawk, the last thing you want to see are commodity based stocks rally. In my opinion, both metal stocks and tech should not rally at the same time. If so, I am afraid the Fed may have to jack rates higher.
Higher commodity prices= higher inflation= lower stock market.
Needless to say, keep a close eye on the commodity based stocks.
NOTE: Please take the new "Fly Survey." Are you bullish or bearish on the markets?
The following Metal stocks have mojo: