Friday, January 19, 2007


The Smashing Pumpkins: Thirty-Three


Closing Comments

Even though there was a lot of green on my screen, today was not an impressive bounce-- following yesterday's beheading of Tech. I feel earnings, specifically TXN's numbers on Monday, will set the tone for the market-- near term.

Although, it is possible the market will poleax the shorts, I'd rather take a cautious approach to the market. Furthermore, I will continue adding to my LMT, WU and new position TKC-- over the weeks to come.

As for me:

Following three straight weeks of gains, I gave back 1.9% this week-- putting my year to date return at 6%. Many of my Tech holdings were hurt badly and it is my job to manage risk. So, instead of being bull headed about the market, I will try to "go with the flow" and preserve gains, while adding to stocks that outperform during market weakness.

Finally, many stocks, especially in the Networking sector, bounced back with a vengeance. Also, select Internet stocks, like STMP, seem to have caught a bottom. There is definitely still an appetite for high growth/high risk stocks, but don't be the last asshat to leave the party.


Position Updates: ALCO

ALCO is an agricultural play. They have an extensive list of products, but should gain momentum for its Florida orange groves. As you know, much of the California orange crop has been frozen to death. Therefore, as prices rise, I suspect ALCO will report better-than-expected numbers.


Late Day Thought

MVIS shorts will have their livers eaten for them.


Fly Buy: TKC

I bought 2,000 TKC @ $14.08.

Disclaimer: If you buy TKC because of this post, you may fall down a manhole. And, you may lose money.


Sector Spotlight: Telco's

Sorry for the delayed post. I was out all morning, hitting the pavement, looking for a new job. I think the Chuck-e-Cheese interview went well. I told the manager that I was a really hard worker and that I would fucking "entertain those fucking kids until their faces turn blue." I am applying to be the mascot. You know, the fucking rat. He said, he'd get back to me within a week or so. Fingers crossed.

Aside from that, I like the tone of the markets today. I see that Yahoo message board fucker is still leaving asshat "last chance to sell MVIS" messages in my comments section. Just know this: MVIS longs are going to roast you and eat your liver, a la Chef Tokman.

Anyway, as you can see, via my seasonality post, February is not a terrible month for equities. However, I probably will continue to buy big cap stocks, like LMT and WU, while lightening up on some of my speculative positions-- but not MVIS.

Also, we are seeing a nice jump in Energy related stocks. Natty is on fucking fire and so is my GMXR position. I will be selling my trading positions into any significant rally.

Finally, I really like the action in the Telco's. Because of their big dividends and consistant growth, they will likely survive and outperform the market-- should it go down.

The following Telco's have mojo:

TCN +11.5%
TELN +5.5%
MTE +4.7%
CCI +3.6%
ECIL +3.4%


February Seasonality Report

There is a lot of talk of seasonality and how poorly tech performs in February. So, instead of guessing, I decided to compile a factual seasonality report (something I do every month) for you fuckers-- leaching on the internets.

(years up/down: average % change)


AAPL 10-11/ -0.2%
BRCM 3-5/ -6.3%
MRVL 3-3/ -8.8%
INTC 13-8/ 2.2%
AMD 14-7/ 4.1%
TRID 7-7/ 1.2%
KLAC 12-9/3.8%
ASML 5-6/ -0.5%
CTXS 5-6/ -4%
ORCL 12-8/ 4.4%
CSCO 8-8/ -3.1%
MSFT 8-12/ -0.2%
SYMC 6-11/ -1.3%
ERTS 11-6/ 6.2%
IBM 8-13/ -0.8%
INFY 2-5/ -5.1%
TXN 15-6/ 6.1% (BEST MONTH)
QCOM 5-10/ -4.3%
LVLT 2-6/ -11.1% (WORST MONTH)
JDSU 6-7/-2.7%
YHOO 2-8/ -6.8% (WORST MONTH)
AMZN 5-4/ -4.7%
EBAY 3-5/ -8%
AKAM 4-3/-4.8%
GLW 15-6/ 1.8%
RIMM 3-4/ 9.7%
DELL 9-6/ 4.4%
CTSH 6-2/10.3%
MOT 11-10/ 1.8%
MVIS 5-5/ 8.9%
GRMN 4-2/ 6.2%
WFR 6-5/ -1.4%
SNDK 5-6/ 0.3%
STX 2-1/ 1.9%
NTAP 3-8/ -1.7%
ANAD 3-8/ -6.5%
ADBE 10-9/ 6.9%
VIP 5-0/ 12.4%
BBY 16-5/ 4.7%
GME 3-0/ 15%
NTES 4-1/ 28%


DIS 16-5/ 4.6%
BA 14-7/ 2.5%
HON 15-6/ 3.7%
HSY 17-4/ 3.5% (BEST MONTH)
FIZ 12-3/ 6.3% (BEST MONTH)
KO 15-6/ 2.5%
KR 16-5/2.8%
CAT 17-4/ 4% (BEST MONTH)
WMT 15-6/ 3%
TGT 15-6/2.8%
HANS 7-7/ 3.8%
ANF 6-4/ 3.4%
CLX 16-5/ 2.2%
LOW 16-4/ 6% (BEST MONTH)
HD 15-6/ 5%
PG 9-12/ 0.1%
CL 14-7/ 2.8%

Conclusion: Historically, tech underperforms big cap consumer cyclicals and industrials, in February. However, it is not a red flag month for the techies. Moreover, it does not scare me enough to run for the sidelines. It's mixed. As a matter of fact, TXN and BBY do very well in February.

Bottom line: February is not a month to get uber aggressive. I view it as a stock pickers month, where smart money is parked in big boring names, like HSY.

Thursday, January 18, 2007


Xtreme: Shorty Shorty


Closing Comments

If you are bearish and wish to point out a few turds, be my guest. But, if you have a fucking agenda, like the fucktard who keeps posting crap about MVIS in the comments area; please, fuck off.

This is not a game to me and I do not need Yahoo message board asshats telling me how to run money. Frankly, you cannot influence the way I think-- so buzz off.

As for today's trading:

Everyone is bailing on Tech. The funny, yet absurd, part of this new sentiment is the fact that just last week everyone loved Tech and wanted to name their first son Steve (Jobs).

Wall Street is a very fickle place. Sentiment can change very quickly and destroy wealth-- just as fast as it's created. Over the last week, I raised some cash and have been parking money in WU and LMT-- but not enough.

I do not believe it is time to go French on the market and surrender positions. The fundamentals are still terrific. If the market corrects and gives back some gains, I'll be there throwing chicken nuggets at my trader/servant-- in order to inform him to buy the fucking dips.

For those of you who are risk averse, make sure you can handle a correction. If not, then adjust your portfolio now-- don't wait for hope to find you.


UPDATE: It appears CWTR is fucking imploding here in after hours. I am not surprised. The company has the ugliest clothes I have ever seen, ever. What the fuck was Cramer smoking when he touted this piece of shit?


While I Lose Money, I Watch This

Best show on HBO.


Quick Alert: Bob Pasani is an Asshat

This guy is almost orasmic over today's decline. These guys/chicks on CNBC are so damn emotional-- it makes me fucking nervous.

I guess the market is now on the "other side of the moutain" and we may resume the long term bear market. Right fuckers?

Without sounding too enraged, I do think today's selloff is a warning, but way overdone.

UPDATE: Because of today's decline, I have quit managing money and gone looking for a job at Chuck-e-Cheese.

More on this later...


Fly Sell: BWLD

I sold 4,000 BWLD @ $57.55.


Quick Alert: Dip Buyers are Buying

Naturally, the asshole dip buyers are buying this dip-- as the DOW and S&P flirt with green. There is a mass exodus out of Tech into Retail, Telecom, Drugs, Defense and Financials.

In short, I think it makes sense to ignore the doom and gloomers and adjust your portfolio to reduce risk. Meaning: Lighten up on speculative Tech and go long some big cap Pharma or Defense.

I prefer the Telco's and Defense.


Fly Buy: LMT

I bought 5,000 LMT @ $96.96.

Disclaimer: If you buy LMT because of this post, the next time you sit down for a bowl of cereal-- you will have run out of milk. And, you may lose money.


Fly Buy: MVIS

I bought 10,000 MVIS @ $3.65.

Disclaimer: If you buy MVIS because of this post, you may go bald. And, you may lose money.


Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors

Well, it looks like the Semi's, led by the fuckers at LRCX, are rolling over. Investors are going to need that fucking office depot box, with the real hand inside, to point them in the right direction. Frankly, I haven't liked the Semi's for more than a year and have periodically shorted them-- with evil intentions to drive their respective shares below zero-- if possible. However, much to my chagrin, they never go below zero. Moreover, after getting "earnings fucked," they usually rebound quite nicely.

So, with that in mind, I suggest selling all Semiconductor stocks now-- with the intent to buy the bastards back-- after earnings. As you can see with today's action in LRCX--earnings season is not fun.

Instead of being a degenerate river boat gambler, I will continue to load up on conservative names like LMT and WU, while discarding the battle ground stocks.

All in all, I am still bullish and feel the market will march higher and "machine gun" the short sellers. However, before that happens, the market may need to pause and punish the dicktarded underperformers.

NOTE: Currently, LMT is my top pick.

The following Semiconductor stocks are screwed:

LRCX -11.5%
NVEC -10.5%
VSEA -9.2%
NETL -5.6%
MTSN -4.8%
NVLS -4.7%

Wednesday, January 17, 2007


Fugees: Ready or not


Closing Comments

Today, commodity related stocks bounced, led by a rebound in crude. Airliners and Networkers were ripped to shreds, while crazy people bought up the Homebuilders-- as if it were 2005.

In short, the market is going to be volatile-- as earnings are reported. I suspect the sellers will embolden themselves with new short sales, until they reach a euphoric state of mind-- with machinations of pending armageddon. Naturally, any real bear prefers armageddon over prosperity. They're fucked up like that.

I suspect the market will pause then proceed to mangle the bears. Buy the dips.

As for today's trading:

I raised some cash today-- just in case. Recently, I sold off some BWLD, HANS and cut a few losers loose, while adding to my LMT, GMXR, TLAB and MVIS positions. I didn't like the tone of the market today and feel it may open lower tomorrow.

However, I have no plans to initiate short positions and will be scouring the market for discounts.


Fly Sell: BWLD

I sold 5,000 BWLD @ $58.05.


Late Day Thought

I want to kill the guy who made that office depot commercial.


Position Updates: HANS, MVIS

HANS is most definitely on fire. Regrettably, I sold the bulk of my position last week-- because I wanted to "lock in" the gain. However, I still hold 6,000 shares and if my servant/trader even thinks about selling it-- I will smash a case of Khaos over his head. It goes higher.

I hear there is no chance of a surprise MVIS secondary or any sort of dilutive financing. The company has ample cash. Not to worry, the stock looks great.


Fly Buy: TLAB

I bought 2,000 TLAB @ $10.30.

Disclaimer: If you buy TLAB because of this post, your toilet may overflow. And, you may lose money.


Fly Buy: WU

I bought 10,000 WU @ $21.72.

Disclaimer: If you buy WU because of this post, the raisins in your raisin bran may not be raisins after all. And, you may lose money.


Bob Parker on Oil

Ignore the other fucker and watch Bob--starting 3 minutes into the interview.

In case you didn't know, I have high regards for everything Mr. Parker has to say.


Sector Spotlight: Homebuilders

As RACK and to a lesser extent INTC get fucking "mushroom clouded," the market is nearly unchanged. Frankly, no one gives two shits about RACK and everyone with an IQ north of 90 understands both INTC and AMD are fucked-- due to a price war.

Generally, I make it a point to never buy a company that is in the middle of a price war. Trust me when I tell you, there are no winners in margin killing price wars. With that being said, I am still long INTC. It's asshattery I tell you-- I know.

As for today's trading:

I am shocked by the bullish nature of the Homebuilder stocks. I mean, for all the shit these companies eat, coupled with the horrendously bad press-- the stocks are holding up quite well. Either the buyers are completely fucktarded in their analysis or the housing debacle is nearing an end. Either way, if you are going to buy the Homebuilders, you might as well paint your fucking face blue and fight for Scotland's independence with a sword. Just make sure not to get your head cut off in the process.

Finally, I heard T. Boone Pickens on CNBC this morning and he sounds fucked. As oil gets bombed, so does he. Funny how that works.

NOTE: It appears Madd Money got its ass kicked in my new "Fly Survey." An overwhelming majority of you (84%) chose Dylan Ratigans "Fast Money" over Cramer retard show, despite the fact that Ratigan looks like he suffers from tourette's syndrome and probably shouts "door-fucker" or "shit-fucker" uncontrollably during commercial breaks. Nonetheless, it leads to the next question: If Madd Money has peeked, is TSCM a viable short?

The following Homebuilders have mojo:

LEN +4.5%
PHM +2.9%
CHCI +2.7%
NVR +2.66%
TOL +2.3%

Tuesday, January 16, 2007


Razah: Where do we go from here?

Click here for audio.


Closing Comments

I love the comments from the CNBC fuckers, calling for a "pullback." I mean, how many times can these people repeat the 'ole maket is crazy high schtick, without us viewers laughing and throwing our empty cans of Monster Energy Soda at the T.V.?

Seriously, there is minor (not major) risk to equities this week, as quarterly earnings roll out. Which reminds me: I fucking hate earnings season.

As for today's trading:

The Internets kept the momentum going with big gains in VCLK, CHINA, KNOT, ORCC and WSPI. Furthermore, so far in 2007, the Internet sector is outperforming all others with a 10% gain. I need to do more work on the dot commers.

Finally, oil is dead. Long live Buffalo Wild Wings!

NOTE: DNA looks ripe to break $90. Keep it on the radar, fuckers.


Fly Buy: TLAB

I bought 5,000 TLAB @ $10.47.

Disclaimer: If you buy TLAB because of this post, someone will steal your favorite golf club. And, you may lose money.


Quick Alert: In Case You Didn't Know or Forgot

Oil is for asshats.

It is broken and the remaining big dogs are trying to get the fuck out. Now, I will hold my 10% weighting-- partly because it is contrarian. But, if I were betting the fucking house on oil, I would have a backup house.

Plus, it appears the U.S. via Saudia Arabia is trying to bend Iran/Venezuela over a barrel
(oil barrel that is).

Declining oil prices is good for U.S. equities--bad for asshat oil investors.


Quick Alert: Telecom Stocks Quietly Scream Higher

I know, Telecom hurt you in the dot com bubble and you wish the scamsters would just be eaten alive by wild boar and die. However, it's hard to ignore a sector that pays handsome dividends and is hitting new highs.

So lets take a gander, shall we:

The following Telecom stocks have mojo:

FRP +15%
XING +7.4%
CYCL +5.9%
TLS +4.6%
GLDN +4.5%
MTA +3.9%
MICC +3.3%
CHT +2.4%

Aside from today's movers, the following stocks may be worth a look:



Fly Sell: GLBC

I sold 4,000 GLBC @ $26.52.


Fly Buy: LMT

I bought 1,000 LMT @ $97.10.

Disclaimer: If you buy LMT because of this post, Canada will invade the U.S. and force you to speak French. And, you may lose money.


Sector Spotlight: Internet

BWLD is on fucking fire. Gluttony is always a good investment. Americans love to eat until their stomachs nearly explode. Therefore, I feel strongly BWLD will kill and serve enough chickens to impress Wall Street. To put it simply, chicken wings sell faster than crack cocaine. Get some. Not crack cocaine. I meant get some chicken wings you fat fuckers, so my BWLD position can appreciate.

As for today's trading:

So far, it's a mixed bag. Semi's, Steel and Oil stocks are under pressure, while the Airliners, Trannies and Internet stocks are on fucking fire. Moreover, with earnings season upon us, I suspect to see the sellers pressure the buyers into doing stupid shit-- like sell stocks. Make sure not to be overweight risky stocks going into earnings.

The Internet sector is doing very well, with outsized gains in VCLK, IGLD, ELOY, INSP and AQNT. In that group, I like AQNT.

Finally, because of the GHCI acquisition, many healthcare related stocks are roaring. As a result, similar stocks in the sector are gapping higher, particularly SUNH, SRZ, ODSY, CSU, BKD, HRT and NHC.

Please take the new "Fly Survey." What show do you prefer, Mad Money or Fast Money?

NOTE: Brian from AlphaTrends has some technical analysis on MVIS, which by the way looks great.

The following Internet stocks have mojo:

VCLK +6.7%
IGLD +4.5%
NCTY +3.3%
ELOY +3.2%
AQNT +3.2%

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DISCLAIMER: This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any FINRA broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.