Friday, January 19, 2007

 

February Seasonality Report

There is a lot of talk of seasonality and how poorly tech performs in February. So, instead of guessing, I decided to compile a factual seasonality report (something I do every month) for you fuckers-- leaching on the internets.

(years up/down: average % change)

FEBRUARY
(tech)

AAPL 10-11/ -0.2%
BRCM 3-5/ -6.3%
MRVL 3-3/ -8.8%
INTC 13-8/ 2.2%
AMD 14-7/ 4.1%
TRID 7-7/ 1.2%
KLAC 12-9/3.8%
ASML 5-6/ -0.5%
CTXS 5-6/ -4%
ORCL 12-8/ 4.4%
CSCO 8-8/ -3.1%
MSFT 8-12/ -0.2%
SYMC 6-11/ -1.3%
ERTS 11-6/ 6.2%
IBM 8-13/ -0.8%
INFY 2-5/ -5.1%
TXN 15-6/ 6.1% (BEST MONTH)
QCOM 5-10/ -4.3%
LVLT 2-6/ -11.1% (WORST MONTH)
JDSU 6-7/-2.7%
YHOO 2-8/ -6.8% (WORST MONTH)
AMZN 5-4/ -4.7%
EBAY 3-5/ -8%
AKAM 4-3/-4.8%
GLW 15-6/ 1.8%
RIMM 3-4/ 9.7%
DELL 9-6/ 4.4%
CTSH 6-2/10.3%
MOT 11-10/ 1.8%
MVIS 5-5/ 8.9%
GRMN 4-2/ 6.2%
WFR 6-5/ -1.4%
SNDK 5-6/ 0.3%
STX 2-1/ 1.9%
NTAP 3-8/ -1.7%
ANAD 3-8/ -6.5%
ADBE 10-9/ 6.9%
VIP 5-0/ 12.4%
BBY 16-5/ 4.7%
GME 3-0/ 15%
NTES 4-1/ 28%

(non-tech)

DIS 16-5/ 4.6%
BA 14-7/ 2.5%
HON 15-6/ 3.7%
HSY 17-4/ 3.5% (BEST MONTH)
FIZ 12-3/ 6.3% (BEST MONTH)
KO 15-6/ 2.5%
KR 16-5/2.8%
CAT 17-4/ 4% (BEST MONTH)
WMT 15-6/ 3%
TGT 15-6/2.8%
HANS 7-7/ 3.8%
ANF 6-4/ 3.4%
CLX 16-5/ 2.2%
LOW 16-4/ 6% (BEST MONTH)
HD 15-6/ 5%
PG 9-12/ 0.1%
CL 14-7/ 2.8%

Conclusion: Historically, tech underperforms big cap consumer cyclicals and industrials, in February. However, it is not a red flag month for the techies. Moreover, it does not scare me enough to run for the sidelines. It's mixed. As a matter of fact, TXN and BBY do very well in February.

Bottom line: February is not a month to get uber aggressive. I view it as a stock pickers month, where smart money is parked in big boring names, like HSY.

Comments:
Loose lips sink ships. What are you sharing with us fly guy? Some magical way to shoot down that asshat mvis hater (don't hate the stock, hate the game)
J
 
Forget him (above). Your list is quite informative, but concerns me b/c the numbers are for Feb. It seems to me, the biggest losses we incur usually happen in early Jan, and this year feels like late Jan....just wondering if you believe we'll be seeing your typical sell-off now. (is that why you did Feb?) In the long run, I am a bull and believe we are only in the beginnings of "slight" (ok, maybe more), sell off..and I still think tech will still lead the way (esp. the right tech)...but do you believe we need to get into a more defensive mode?
 
Mr. Broker A (Chief Flytard): Thanks for the list. If TXN and XLNX holds up early in the face of a DOW decline I think a Daytrade (for us little guys) in the SMH is appropriate (just get out before the close). Sound good to anybody?
 
How'd the interview go over at Chuck-E?
 
There has got to be some way to shut this guy (above) down.
 
Hi Broker A,

What's the word with MVIS? Are you holding thru this sell-off or taking some to the sidelines for a bit?

Looks like someone is selling into every little up-swing.
 
Settle down. I’m not “trouble”. I’m long HANS, BWLD, and way to much MVIS (today). When Fly teases “more to follow” regarding Chuck-E or Dunkin Donuts, I’m all ears wheather related to next disclaimer or better still… next stock investigation.
 
I would sell your position if you are underwater anonymous. Pigs get slaughtered kiddo.
 
I'm not underwater...been in since the early 2's per share. I just don't want to be on the sidelines when MVIS announces it has agreed to be bought by a cell phone company or announces a huge order from Nokia, Apple, or someother.

Pigs do get sliced up and feel bad giving money back, but....missing out on a 4 bagger is a possibility.

Hog/speculator
 
Just curious, do you guys remember a few weeks ago when MVIS sold off hard to the $3 level? Do you remember what happened the next day? Well I sure do and I can tell you what looked like it was taking a shit brought a huge smile to my face the next day when we opened up 30% higher. Just remember that with all of these doom and gloomers.
 
Anyone here see a problem with this setup?

http://img.timeinc.net/popsci/images/2007/01/bestofces_ss_projector.jpg

Yeah I do too and I have a solution.
 
Looks like you have to carry around 2 pieces of equipment....and one of them is BIG :^)

Seriously, some hedgies who like MVIS and have a good size position are selling to take some profit and drive the price down as the panic/weak-hands jump off the MVIS train. Then the hedgies buy back at a lower price and start the cycle all over again. Their only risk is being on the sidelines or light the position when the big news is announced.
 
Thanks, Broker.
 
Broker A,

Thanks again for posting the monthly historical information. Always shows something of interest. Even if it is just debunking a misconception.
 
An MVIS dip would be nice, and speaking of dips, how about VSE - it's below Lehman's target for the first time in eons, and the corn pump scare and the oil dump scare are looking pretty stale to me. Ethanol at the pump will get higher profile this summer driving season and that's less than six months away...
 
Here's your chance to lighted up on the MVIS. 3.70'ish...
 
Yes that last message was from the Yahoo message board asshat...by the way KMB is working out as a short and I just added a bunch of RHT puts.

kidstock
 
MVIS goes to $5.

Quit campaigning for it to go lower you peasant fucker.
 
I bought more MVIS at $3.46 myself. I will continue to add on any declines as well. You shorts in MVIS are fucking annoying. My guess is you want attention to try to upgrade your lonely fucking life. Personally I don't think these idiots are even short MVIS, they just get their rocks off when someone responds to them as if they matter. Yap yap yap, get a life fuckers.

Broker your quiet today but I thought I would ask about WFMI and what you are thinking here on it. Thanks!
 
Thanks for posting this. Great info.

If I could only figure out how to screen this so I wouldn't need you anymore...
 
Funny you should single out HSY. I just sold it after a year of comatose action, about as exciting as watching paint dry. No reason to own such a stock; for parking purposes, I prefer PayPal (5.02% money market).
 
Yahoo messageboard is close because of the bashers!
Now they come here to fuck Fly. I hate them!:(
 
Yahoo is broken on a number of fronts. If you are long YHOO, be very afraid.
 
Good point on yhoo, it's a huge festering turd. I think they need to throw more money at Mr. Semel, that might help. As an aside, google's blogger doesn't have a great track record of avoiding down time either.
 
oh ..there you go again...therfore.....etc....

come on skippy.....your numbers are correct.....but now if you overlayed OIL and the slide it has had and do not see the magnetism effect of that slide on OIL out of its competitor for hott money...as in hedge funds....you are again missing the signals of rotation...or are traveling fundy roads....

step back...look at macro movements in and out of sectors.....would hott money hold tech after such a run and let oil stay where it is?????

um...they sell high...and but low.....

lol.......more harassment later...can you wait

therefor...conclusion....lol....

i know...i am an asshat...lol....
 
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