Fly on WallStreet

There is a lot of talk of seasonality and how poorly tech performs in February. So, instead of guessing, I decided to compile a factual seasonality report (something I do every month) for you fuckers-- leaching on the internets.

(years up/down: average % change)

FEBRUARY
(tech)

AAPL 10-11/ -0.2%
BRCM 3-5/ -6.3%
MRVL 3-3/ -8.8%
INTC 13-8/ 2.2%
AMD 14-7/ 4.1%
TRID 7-7/ 1.2%
KLAC 12-9/3.8%
ASML 5-6/ -0.5%
CTXS 5-6/ -4%
ORCL 12-8/ 4.4%
CSCO 8-8/ -3.1%
MSFT 8-12/ -0.2%
SYMC 6-11/ -1.3%
ERTS 11-6/ 6.2%
IBM 8-13/ -0.8%
INFY 2-5/ -5.1%
TXN 15-6/ 6.1% (BEST MONTH)
QCOM 5-10/ -4.3%
LVLT 2-6/ -11.1% (WORST MONTH)
JDSU 6-7/-2.7%
YHOO 2-8/ -6.8% (WORST MONTH)
AMZN 5-4/ -4.7%
EBAY 3-5/ -8%
AKAM 4-3/-4.8%
GLW 15-6/ 1.8%
RIMM 3-4/ 9.7%
DELL 9-6/ 4.4%
CTSH 6-2/10.3%
MOT 11-10/ 1.8%
MVIS 5-5/ 8.9%
GRMN 4-2/ 6.2%
WFR 6-5/ -1.4%
SNDK 5-6/ 0.3%
STX 2-1/ 1.9%
NTAP 3-8/ -1.7%
ANAD 3-8/ -6.5%
ADBE 10-9/ 6.9%
VIP 5-0/ 12.4%
BBY 16-5/ 4.7%
GME 3-0/ 15%
NTES 4-1/ 28%

(non-tech)

DIS 16-5/ 4.6%
BA 14-7/ 2.5%
HON 15-6/ 3.7%
HSY 17-4/ 3.5% (BEST MONTH)
FIZ 12-3/ 6.3% (BEST MONTH)
KO 15-6/ 2.5%
KR 16-5/2.8%
CAT 17-4/ 4% (BEST MONTH)
WMT 15-6/ 3%
TGT 15-6/2.8%
HANS 7-7/ 3.8%
ANF 6-4/ 3.4%
CLX 16-5/ 2.2%
LOW 16-4/ 6% (BEST MONTH)
HD 15-6/ 5%
PG 9-12/ 0.1%
CL 14-7/ 2.8%

Conclusion: Historically, tech underperforms big cap consumer cyclicals and industrials, in February. However, it is not a red flag month for the techies. Moreover, it does not scare me enough to run for the sidelines. It's mixed. As a matter of fact, TXN and BBY do very well in February.

Bottom line: February is not a month to get uber aggressive. I view it as a stock pickers month, where smart money is parked in big boring names, like HSY.