Saturday, October 27, 2007
But you already knew that, didn't you?
Off to my local liquor store.
Friday, October 26, 2007
Nas: Life's a Bitch
We are entering the time of year when people like to stuff their fat fucking faces with pumpkin pie and greasy turkey legs. That shit is always bullish for the markets.
My game plan is simple: lever up on winners, post Halloween, and ride the turkey rally till it's dead.
In other words, "milk the turkey."
Without doubt, Chinese related names are set for another run. Currently, I have positions in LFT, FUQI, XFML, CAAS, FMCN and FXI.
Also, I like food and beverage stocks, for obvious reasons. My favorites are WBD, HANS, BWLD, KTEC and maybe SMBL. If people start buying "Smart Balance" stuff, in size, the stock can triple.
Finally, it's worth noting, VMI will print $100, by hook or crook. Additionally, "The Fly" took the advice from the one called "Crude Broker," buying CVI.
Have a great weekend and fuck off.
Fly Sells: NYX, PG
Fly Buys: LFT, SPF, VMI, CVI, ERTS
Disclaimer: If you buy any of the above stocks because of this post, your dog will eat your ipod. And, you may lose money.
Position Update: HANS
Late Day Thought
NOTE: If "The Fly" was a nice guy, he'd say "nice job," but he's not.
Off to count my gold bricks.
CFC call is going well/ Fuck you shorts, you're dead
My guess, the shorts get boot stomped, all the way to the closing bell.
With my money, I'm buying WBD, BWLD and JCG.
In short, you're all free to get drunk, throw shit around and buy stocks.
How 'bout a mid-day conference call?
Fly Sells: WMT, HD
"You must have been something before electricity"
Sector Spotlight: Energy
And, we have a rally, thanks in part to a 'well-hung' earnings report from MSFT. Also, it appears the tanned one (CFC) is pulling rabbits out of his ass, promising to book a profit next quarter.
As a result, we have a lose-lose situation for the shorts transpiring. I see you fuckers trying to lean on weak DOW components, desperately attempting to bring the market lower. It's not going to work today, fuckface. My sense, we close up between 1-2%. Too many bearshitter, too little robster.
By far, my best performers are my refinery plays, ALJ, VLO and DK, thanks in part to the old fucker at Tracinda taking a piece of TSO. In my opinion, the refiners have a lot of catching up to do, with oil above $90. Also, the oil service stocks are on fucking fire, with mind numbing gains in FTK, GHM, OII and DWSN.
My favorite plays are the refiners, especially VLO and ALJ.
Also, keep an eye on some of the metal stocks, they've been lagging. Should the sector catch fire, "The Fly" will double up on his RS position.
Finally, I'm going to put my neck out there and say the Morgan Keegan analyst, who downgraded BWLD on valuation, is a heroin addict--who has no idea how good BWLD is doing. Comparing BWLD to CMG, one could make the argument that BWLD is 50% undervalued.
Go eat some wings, you fat fuckers.
NOTE: JP Morgan is a criminal enterprise.
Fly Buy: JCG
Disclaimer: If you buy JCG because of this post, Santa Claus will break your jaw this Christmas. And, you may lose money.
Quick Alert: We've got a 'Leg-Breaker'-CFC
Mr. Mozilo asked me to give this to you (breaks legs with a portable tanning machine).
Back to your regularly scheduled bowl of cereal.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Late Night Thought
50 Cents: Funeral Music
Position Update: XFML
Be sure to visit "The Fly's" funeral, which will be 'podcasted' live on the internets.
NOTE: In case you are wondering, yes, "The Fly" will be buried in a pineapple coffin.
Quick Alert: China is a Communist Country
What a great fucking investment, thus far. I can't wait to see how earnings pan out.
Can't fucking wait.
Fuck You: Take the "Fly Survey"
Thus far, 80%+ of you idiots are bullish. Hence, the market goes down.
Signs of Panic
Look at the retailers. Stocks like JCG, AEO, M, and a dozen others, are screaming for help. It's almost as if this country is full of credit card wielding fools, unable to pay the mortgage, but willing to buy that new plasma. I mean, last time I checked, there are some pretty rich fuckers out there. How could this be?
Also, the financials are at new lows, while homebuilders stand on the brink of destruction.
This whole pastiche of fucktardedness has resulted in the seasonal October "fuck you, you're dead" tape-- for the bulls. My sense, this will pass, like other swoons, and stocks will rally, with a fever, up until Thanksgiving.
The bad news is already out there. We already know how fucked the banks, retailers and homies are. But, what if the retailers post good numbers, this holiday season?
If so, off to the races we go.
If you are long into earnings, be sure to reduce your positions to a point where it won't hurt, should your stocks blow up, like CMI, BRCM or VDSI. Or, take out protective puts.
As for the homebuilders:
At some point, they will be the buy of the decade. This is the sector that has taken the most beat downs, deservedly so. However, like other housing debacles, this will pass and the companies that make it through will flourish, once people start paying their fucking mortgages again.
My best guess, the homies will become long term holds, sometime in the middle of 2008. Until then, wait for the flush-outs and short them on rallies.
Sector Spotlight: Homies
Seriously, I fucking hate earnings season, especially this quarter. Apparently, unless your ticker symbol is RIMM, AAPL or ISRG, your stock is going to get peeled on earnings day. If you can, avoid it like the plague.
How about "Dollar Danks?" I think it is clear, as well as evident, that iiG is going higher, since bad news makes the stock go higher, while good news makes it rip. Stay long.
Chinese related names are getting a kung-fu chop to the neck. For the most part, obviously, the China craze is done. Nonetheless, stubbornly, I will not sell XFML, since there is real value in the name.
Oil and commodity related names are knocking the false teeth out of the bears. My favorite oil plays are VLO, ALJ, GLF and UPL.
Finally, I'm somewhat busy today. Instead of fucking around with you internet weirdo's, I have business to conduct.
NOTE: Big short squeeze taking place in the Homies.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Late Night Thought
Frank Sinatra - Both Sides Now
All of my 'smart friends' were selling short all day, only to have their fucking faces punched off, in a weird twist of irony. Odd no?
At the same time, "The Fly" was walking around Manhattan, indiscriminately, throwing cherry bombs--near garbage cans.
However, when I came back to the office, thanks to new Fed cut rumors, the market cut the bollocks off the bears, much to "The Fly's" approval.
In short, it looks like we're heading higher again. The analyst from Morgan Keegan is smoking crack pipe, thinking BWLD is fully valued. My sense, the company will blow out numbers, sending the stock to $50.
Upon the bull run renewing, I want to buy LFT, BWLD, VMI and WBD on momentum.
Fly Buy: VMI
Disclaimer: If you buy VMI because of this post, Cramer will grow hair. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: BWLD
Disclaimer: If you buy BWLD because of this post, your barber will accidentally cut your ear off. And, you may lose money.
How 'bout a late day rally?
Quick Alert: Going to Light some Firecrackers
Emergency Asshat of the Week Award: Tom Au
This man just took out his calculator and declared the DOW will go to 6,000.
But valuations since 1991 (like the 1920s) have reflected a "new world order" of American political dominance that is now being eroded by troubles in the Middle East and elsewhere, and a highly leveraged "new economy" that is looking flimsier by the day. By calling for stocks to return to prewar valuations, I'm stating my belief that the elevated profit margins, returns on equity and earnings growth of the past 15 years that supported recent valuations were a historical aberration, and that a decade (or more) of U.S. stock market progress is about to be wiped out.Now that's the type of market call "The Fly" respects, yet throws mashed potatoes at.
Fuck the bears who call for the average 10-20% dip. Tom Au is showing you, via elementary mathematical models, how the DOW can 'shave off' 55% of its value, in fairly short order.
What a wonderful world of silliness Mr. Tom Au lives in.
"I'm an old man..."
Strength in a shitbox
The sector of note are the exchanges, as NYX, CME, ICE, NMX and NDAQ show shorts the middle finger.
Also, it's worth noting, there is decent momentum in the following names:
PCAR, TWIN, DCO, JEC, ALJ, RS, VLO, GD, HANS, PLCE, PAS, RJF, BAGL, ATI, BTJ, HES, APL, SCON, WAG, CEPH, GENR, GENZ, SYUT, ZNH, CEA, SILC, CRI, ZRAN, VMW, MW, DISH, QLGC and NVLS.
As you know, stocks that don't go lower, in the face of rapid market decline, tend to do quite well when the fucker (general market) reverses. Needless to say, some of the above names are worth monitoring.
In short, the financials, once again, are toxic. If you happen to be long a broker, it makes sense to just cut it out-- and eat the loss like a fucking man.
Earnings season is a wonderful time for degenerate OTB guys to lose their rent money.
NOTE: TMTA is not gay.
Fly Magic: MVIS
Sector Spotlight: Financials
Well, thanks to MER, AMZN and a myriad of earnings disasters, we are setting up for a 3% down day. Name any financial, it's getting killed.
Now of course, there are some oddities in the market today, like NYX, HANS and other weird stocks trading higher. But, for the most part, especially in tech, stocks are getting the old buckshot to the face.
The silver lining: MER can't post numbers tomorrow.
So, for now, I'll watch my stocks, in amazement, lose value, while quietly sipping on a cup of Monster Energy Soda.
NOTE: LFT came public.
NOTE II: Morgan Keegan is a bucket shop.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
This man wants his share of the Billions being made on the internet
Linkin Park: Give Up
Don't fuck with me, despite MVIS weakening--late in the day.
At the close of trading, I bought shares of WBD, FMCN, XFML and VMI.
In short, "The Fly" is doing much, much better than you, and has a brighter future.
Aside from greatness, "The Fly" is working on some new shit, soon to be announced to you (internet leeches).
Finally, if a knife were put to my neck, in order to extract one stock pick, I'd say: "cut my head off Sir, if you must, but before you do; go long WBD."
NOTE: AH'S carnage.
Fly Sell: FTK
Fly Buy: FUQI
Disclaimer: If you buy FUQI because of this post, this blog will cease to exist. And, you may lose money.
Fly Buy: BWLD
Disclaimer: If you buy BWLD because of this post, your mustache will fall off.
Thirsty for some Magic?
Hot News Alert: Dunkin' Donuts has new cups/ Magic
This, as you know, will enable "The Fly" to keep his Dunkin' coffee (cup and all), without fear of being mistaken as poor (poor people are rumored to like Dunkin' Donuts coffee).
Aside from that, I am working with my new magician, in order to get the share price of XFML higher. He's doing all type of shit with smoke, candles and ouija boards.
Within the market, I'm back to making cash bricks, with gains in BWLD, HANS, AAPL, RIMM, MVIS, GMXR, WBD, FTK, NYX and GME.
Back to 'work.'
NOTE: FUQI came public.
Fly Magic: XFML
Sector Spotlight: China
As for the general market:
Despite the kick ass nature of AAPL, the bears are pressing the bulls necks against a hot blade-- causing an intra-day reversal. However, the trannies and tech stocks have strength.
My sense, the buyers step in, late in the day, despite the gayness in MMM and WMT.
Also, dollar weakness is helping precious metal stock, but not oil. Odd no?
This paradigm will not last.
Finally, Chinese related names are on fucking fire, with balled up moves in LFC, BNSO, JOBS, QXM, FMCN, KUN, BIDU, MR, GRRF, GSI, EDU, NED and ATV. XFML better go higher.
Position Update: MVIS
Co announces it has entered into a development agreement with one of the world's largest consumer electronics manufacturers of mobile phones, digital cameras and personal media players. Under the agreement, the manufacturing partner will integrate Microvision's proprietary PicoP display engine into fully functional stand-alone projector prototypes.This is much bigger than you might think.
NOTE: My guess: Samsung.
UPDATED NOTE: I have changed my guess to Toshiba.
UPDATE: Fuck you shorts; you're dead.
UPDATE II: Long live Tokman and his thirty elves.
Monday, October 22, 2007
Time Machine Special: Fuck You Shorts; You're Dead
NOTE: Coming Soon- 'Fuck you; you're dead' funeral cards.
Hole - Malibu
Should I even talk about MVIS anymore? It is clear that the stock is getting burned to the ground, partly thanks to the company's comatose IR department. It always amazes me how well or poorly people take losses.
Some people I know stay cool, calm and collected, while others rip the fucking carpets from under his trader/servant. As you know, I'm the latter.
My worst fear is coming to fruition, which is MVIS going into CES with a 3 handle. It is un-fucking-believable how gay this stock is behaving.
In short, like all real men, I like my stocks to go higher. Don't you dare email me with suggestions to be patient. I have been.
As for the market:
This is the best case scenario. The market fucked the shorts at the end. That's all you really need to know.
With my money, I scalped money trades in FXI and FTK, while nibbling at XFML--near the lows. Until that fucker gets an 8 handle, I will no longer post my trades. It hurts too much.
In closing, it probably makes sense to invest as ignorant as possible--just buying shit for fun, while drunk. I mean, investing indiscriminately, while drunk, has worked for years.
Why should now be any different?
Top pick: VMI
Thoughts on AAPL
I'm up almost 100 points, on AAPL, and have little interest in playing the "fuck you, you're dead" game.
However, if I was going to be a degenerate OTB guy, I'd short SNCR (AAPL derivitive play), and go long AAPL.
Late Day Thought
Fly Sell: EPD
Fly Sell: FXI
Thank "The Fly" here
Now, some of you may be tempted to say "fuck you, MVIS is down," or "nice call on XFML-- top ticking cocksucker." However, those comments, and others, will be promptly deleted, as if they never existed.
Look you, the Turks and the Kurds have a ceasefire!
May the world rejoice, via much higher stock prices.
NOTE: "The Fly" had already consumed 3 Monster Energy Soda's at the time of this post.
KILL THE BEAR!!!
**** is gay
Quick Alert: Reverse Ball Snipping
However, with small caps and brokers weakening, while the DOW is hamstrung, tech buyers are losing conviction.
Naturally, I am over analyzing this shit and it's really not my game. With that being said, I'm off to go for a walk.
Fly Buy: FTK
Disclaimer: If you buy FTK because of this post, your new flat screen tv will fall off the wall. And, you may lose money.
Sector Spotlight: Financials
I don't know who put in all of those fucktarded sell at the open orders; but he/she should be fired. Who does shit like that?
There is too much apprehension in the bear camp and the bulls know it. While it's true, I can come back here, in about an hour, and eat my words; nonetheless, "The Fly" says we've bottomed.
A trading bottom, if I might suggest.
Right out the gates, I caught a bargain in FXI, down 20. Looking at a few stocks, FTK just opened, down $4.5-- a steal. Also, WBD opened down $5, another steal.
NOTE: All of the brokers are buys, right here.
In short, this is the time when you can bank profuse coin, while punching off the mustache's of bearshitters.
Quick Alert: Shorts about to get their balls snipped off
Fly Buy: FXI
Disclaimer: If you buy FXI because of this post, the next time you order "The Phoenix," there will be no lobster in it. And, you may lose money.
Late Night Feast Alert
Sunday, October 21, 2007
'87 CRASH REDUX: Weekend Edition
As you know, Asian markets are getting stir fried, as investors 'walk away' from their investments, reminiscent of our home owners 'walking away' from their houses.
Never mind the new news is old. What's important to accomplish is crashing the market, since it happened 20 years ago. Quite spooky and odd no?
Which leads me to my next point: if the bearshitters are allowed to repost old news, can us bullshitters re-release INTC's earnings, or something else that grates their soul?
Now, if you are bearish, you know as well as I, this market is going to fuck you up something awful, someday this week. Until it happens, enjoy the 1/2 inch skirt steaks with your poor man condiment (ketchup), while preparing for a swift roundhouse to the neck or balls. Either scenario is perfectly fine with me.