Thursday, October 25, 2007

 

Sector Spotlight: Homies

How are you ladies enjoying the earnings season, so far? Fun hah?

Seriously, I fucking hate earnings season, especially this quarter. Apparently, unless your ticker symbol is RIMM, AAPL or ISRG, your stock is going to get peeled on earnings day. If you can, avoid it like the plague.

How about "Dollar Danks?" I think it is clear, as well as evident, that iiG is going higher, since bad news makes the stock go higher, while good news makes it rip. Stay long.

Chinese related names are getting a kung-fu chop to the neck. For the most part, obviously, the China craze is done. Nonetheless, stubbornly, I will not sell XFML, since there is real value in the name.

Oil and commodity related names are knocking the false teeth out of the bears. My favorite oil plays are VLO, ALJ, GLF and UPL.

Finally, I'm somewhat busy today. Instead of fucking around with you internet weirdo's, I have business to conduct.

Developing...

NOTE: Big short squeeze taking place in the Homies.

Comments:
A lot of new homes to be built in so-cali USG a good play here?
 
Crazy as it may seem, I just consumed a big bowl of three kinds of oats - steel cut, Scottish style, and Isish style. I never tried this before. This "fusion" bowl was combined with sliced bananas and apricots, as always, and washed down with a black coffee.
 
Replacement homes take a long time to get built, and they tend to be done by small builders.

I don't see any homebuilder play off of the fires.
 
USG is a supplier
 
I just ate a big bowl of oatmeal with brown sugar and cran-raisins.

It is what is causing MVIS to go up.

Now everyone go fuck themselves
 
Big short squeeze in NTRI as well....maybe the turd has turned.
 
I get that, jumpie.

The number of homes that need to be rebuilt is probably less than 2000, spread out over 2-3 years.

It's a pretty big disaster for 2000 families, and a big opportunity for some local builders who were hurting for business, but not much of a blip in the investing world.
 
ULTA IPO up 60% . Told you fuckers to get in.
 
snaildick- going to print 39 soon.
 
Short squeeze indeed, take a look at todays KBH chart at 10:00 am, cover central.
In other news this BWLD crap is depressing me, all of this over that one analyst??
 
Seriously, is RDN going bankrupt? Why am I always the last to hear about this shit...

-DT
 
I think SLW may gift us with one more dip to the $15.20 ish area here.

If you do not enrich your respective families with some there, then you are as Borat would say: "Eh Stupid, yes?"
 
BOOM shit my shower and my coffee cup. Holding.
 
Marty Whitman thinks RDN is good. He's up to 10 million shares.

The rest of the world has dug the hole, dropped in the lifeless body, and is starting to kick dirt on the rotting corpse.
 
Too put it into perspective, even at 10 million shares, RDN is less than 1% of Whitmans holdings. In other words, if RDN goes under big deal.
 
Boom, did BOOM announce? Or is that just pre-announcement shorting going on?
 
PMI is toxic, and RDN and all the subprime insurance plays are being painted with the same brush. Maybe better to avoid this shit till there's clearer visibility, as they say on the street.
 
The ULTA concept is interesting, but I don't understand the enthusiasm for the stock. Virtually all the IPO proceeds will be used to pay accrued dividends on preferred and to retire the preferred. So they take the IPO investors money to make some of the pre-IPO investors whole rather than finance growth? Blah.

So IPO investors know with certainty that ULTA will either have to lever up the balance sheet to finance store openings or do an equity secondary almost as soon as the ink is dry on the IPO. And they're paying 25x EBITDA for that? A retailer with 100% domestic exposure. And same store sales growth that slowed in the July quarter and year over year gross margins declined 150 basis points in July?

I guess it's all about the concept.
 
Homebuilders getting whacked...no bottom yet.
 
Mags -- We have one of those stores in the newer shopping center down the road from us, and I haven't been impressed. I actually thought it was a "one off-er" from the local area, because of it's seemingly haphazard displays, k-martish layout, etc.

Must be doing decent volumes right now, but I don't get the "cache" aspect. Just not a pretty enough store.
 
ABK - its a goner till they own up to their twice MER exposure to subprime
 
Jake, during the roadshow presentation ULTA indicated they still have a handful of "old format" stores to be converted or relocated. Since your shopping center is new, I doubt yours is an "old format". Your comment is surprising if it is a "new format".

I've never been to an ULTA store, but from the roadshow video/slides the new format stores appeared to be attractive. Well lit, wide aisles, attractive displays. Just what I'd consider good merchandising.
 
BOOM is just preannounced short selling shower shitting. After hours.
 
BOT 1000 more @ 47.01

That takes me to 20k. at avg cost of 45.86. I had rolled out in the $49s and booked some dough before the market pooper last week.

We'll see.

Shall I shit my Music City bed tonight?

Will I revel in biscuits and hot hot coffee tomorrow am?

I am going back to play that Gospel video I posted..."I'm just waiting to count the money up...in my hand"
 
To understand the ULTA concept you would have to be female or metrosexual.

BOOM is giving me ulcers.
 
BOOM will give you the shits.

Trade it as you see it. I'm in. But there's no shame in getting out.

Trade wisely.
 
Cap, whats the difference, exactly?

Boom, forget the gospel choir, go directly to the Rosary.

Not enough people praying the Rosary these days, anyway.

Extremely effective in tight spots, if sincere.

"Let it Be" not all off the mark.
 
Mags... it's possible we are "old format" and I have not been there for at least two Christmases (good stocking stuffer store for the gals in the fambly), so it could have been renovated since.

I was there about four days before Christmas too, which may have had something to do with what looked like disarray.

Still, retail is fleeting... like restaurant stocks. First year of bidness school for me, the hottest IPO in the land was.....?

Boston Market!
 
If that was the 2:15-2:30 bounce then the market is in a heap of trouble IMO. No rumors today?
 
Earnings season is making it hard to trade this f-ing market, isn't it?
 
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