Friday, May 04, 2007
Frank Sinatra: Fly Me to the Moon
I had big gains in BWLD, NTRI and HANS, but still lost money.
What the fuck.
Over this weekend, I will try to figure out this "asshattery."
Part of my fall is due to my 13% cash position, and no leverage. Frankly, due to my 24% YTD return, I have become somewhat apprehensive about placing my balls on the ax.
Next week, HANS and MVIS report earnings. I anticipate a big number from HANS and bullshit from MVIS.
MVIS is a long term play-- not an earnings trade.
However, I look forward to what Tokman (CEO of MVIS) has to say, in regards to discussions with the cell phone makers.
Finally, whoever bought YHOO on that bullshit MSFT for YHOO report is a fucktarded, dickless asshat. I mean, Bill Gates doesn't buy shit. He is one cheap mother fucker, aside from wanting to save the world via his charitable donations. What irony!
Next week, I intend on doing lots of fucked up trades, mainly because I am getting bored.
Until Monday, fuck off internet leeches.
Position Updates: HANS
Nonetheless, whoever is short HANS, going into earnings, will likely get a sword or spear to the gut.
Update on the Important Matter of Weekend Bloggers
Fly Sell: GLD
Drink the Water You Beast
Go ahead, drink it-- you dumb fuckers.
Sector Spotlight: Internet
Right now, all "The Fly" cares about is HANS and by how much they will crush the estimates, next week. I understand many believe HANS is losing momentum; but, "The Fly" feels HANS is about to enter a period of hyper growth-- spearheaded by "Rhumba" and a new line of charged coffee beverages.
Furthermore, I spit on those who disagree with me.
As for today's trading:
Obviously, everything is clicking on all cylinders, except for the fucktards who keep selling my MVIS. The internets is on fire, with big dicked gains in PCLN, YHOO, RNWK, SINA, VCLK, GMKT, WBMD and ICCA.
With my money, I am somewhat apathetic, with no desire to put money to work. For some reason, I get the sense there is a giant hammer getting ready to smash me into the ground. Therefore, "The Fly" remains cautious.
Finally, I intend on selling the rest of my Gold, today. I am done with that bullshit metal-- and will pray to the stock God's, so that it spirals back to $200. Also, the FMCN looks good for a trade.
Thursday, May 03, 2007
PM DAWN - Set Adrift on Memory Lane
No CC's today. Here is a gay song, for a gay trading day.
Quick Alert: Cramer Super Pumps MNST
This man just went on CNBC and said MNST's option activity is indicating the company is going to get bought out, within 35 days.
As a result, the stock has exploded to the upside, as all of the "Cramtards" step into the stock, with reckless abandon.
Seriously, if I were short MNST, I'd call for Cramer to be arrested, tried and "electric chaired," for pulling a stunt like this.
However, since I could give two fucks and a gay goat about MNST, I simply watch and blog about "Cramer the fucktard."
Someone owes Cramer a fucking large bottle of "rich man's whiskey."
Quick Alert: Shorts Pinned to the Wall
Keep shorting. Next thing you know, a sharp knife is lodged in your head.
Fly Sell: TKC
Sector Spotlight: Trannies
Frankly, I have no reason to be this happy; my stocks are hardly up.
Also, it's worth noting, I haven't told my trader/servant to go fuck his "goat herding Mother" or to "fetch me a warm, not hot, slice of pizza." And, I haven't thrown any small hand axes at the CEO of DIVX's face, thus far.
As for today's trading:
Everything looks good; but I have no urge to buy anything. The big industrial names are gapping higher, to the great dismay of those who short them. Also, the Trannies are making the sellers lick the third rail, in an attempt to run them over-- NYC subway style.
Right now, EXP, EAGL, JBHT, CSX, PACR, UTIW and DRYS are leading the Trannies higher.
In addition, Chemical stocks are enrobed in blue flames, with sword to the gut gains in LYO, TNH and WLK.
If I felt like buying stock, JSDA or GLBC might be two names worth buying.
Honestly, the weather is too nice to fuck around with numbers and letters, today. I'd rather drink a two foot cup of iced coffee, then walk and eat food-- all day.
In short, "The Fly" is in a very good mood and the stock market looks great.
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Flyleaf : I'm So Sick
From BWLD to CENX to GMRK to UPL, I made money.
The Telecom sector led the rally, with a 1.6% showing. Within the sector, VIP, SKM, NTL, ALSK and CHA have momentum, amongst many others.
In short, the bears got their "whigs grenaded," as the buyers put their balls on the desk and went long.
Personally, I raised some more cash today. Currently, "The Fly" has a 12% cash position, which is huge for me. Typically, I'll invest all of my cash, then lever out my holdings-- up to 150%. So, in short, I am a bit cautious at these levels.
Finally, I mentioned iiG as a possible earnings play, scratch that. After doing some DD, there is extreme risk to the current share price. As a matter of fact, I'd short or buy puts on the stock, following earnings (not before). Today, I sold my entire position.
Long live chicken wing eating mother fuckers.
Position Updates: MVIS
In short, the company is still actively pursuing commercialization of their Picop product, by mid '08 to early '09.
When asked about TI's projector, Alex (CEO of MVIS) said their technology was far superior to TI's. However, the company is not dismissing them, as they are always a formidable competitor.
When asked about Symbol's projector, who is now under MOT's umbrella, Alex said he couldn't discuss the intricate details, due to having an existing NDA (non-disclosure agreement) with MOT. However, he did say, MOT has no plans to use Symbol's technology in their phones.
Personally, I got the impression that Alex is more interesting in running the business and not the stock. The way it should be.
Meaning: He is not going to ink a deal, for the sake of inking it and getting the stock price higher. He is interested in a long term strategy, which will enable MVIS to prosper for many years to come.
In short, I am comfortable with the way this company is being managed-- and will continue to add to my position.
NOTE: Alex said the company is still on schedule to launch a PicoP product, by mid 2008.
Click here to download Citi's general market overview.
Fly Sell: BWLD
Sector Spotlight: Food & Beverage
As many company's struggle to exceed earnings expectations, fat fuckers across the nation are helping themselves to another serving of wings, burrito's and french fries-- sending the shares of BWLD, CMG and YUM through the roof.
I mean, it wasn't very hard to figure out BWLD would have a good quarter. Look around.
Everyone you know, with the exception of that one guy or girl who is always on a low carb diet, is a fucking glutton--eating America's food supply.
The restaurants are always packed and the patrons are always fat.
Good times to be a food shoveler.
As for today's trading:
The reason we are not trading lower is because so many of you idiots are short the market. In past bull markets, short interest was low, while sentiment remained at all time highs. Hence, the element of surprise was always available, in order to trick everyone into buying the top.
However, today, with the advent of ultra short ETF's and the loud mouths of CNBC, everyone is trying to be a hedge fund manager--wrongly timing the top and getting raped on their shorts.
As a result, the market seems to have an endless supply of fucktarded asshats, driving shares higher-- via short covering.
So, how do you game this new phenomenon?
Go long stocks with big short interest ratio's, with the hopes of a major squeeze.
That's why "The Fly" has been telling you to be long iiG, before the numbers. Did the unwashed internet leech listen? No.
He went short BWLD, before the numbers.
Good going pal.
Finally, I really like the action in Food and Beverage. Thus far, BWLD, CMG, YUM, WBD, JSDA, PNRA, LNCE and JBX look great.
Additionally, the diet plays are on fire. There, I like NTRI, RELV, BZI, NXXI and MED.
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Asshat of the Week Award: Jordan Greenhall
Owning DIVX is equal to eating at "The Fly's" local Chinese restaurant, where the Phoenix dish (a lobster dish if you will) comes without "robster," because that shit is too expensive.
Where are the fucking earnings Jordan? You forgot to put the earnings in the earnings report-- you stupid bastard.
I wouldn't want to throw small hand axes at Jordan's face (not his real face, a photo) if DIVX just missed the quarter. This man fucking guided up, two weeks ago. He said business was flippin' great-- and everyone piled into his stock.
Luckily for "The Fly," I had a chance to cash in some chips at $23, but not enough.
Trust me when I say, if it wasn't for BWLD skinning the shorts alive today (major position of "The Fly"), I'd dispatch several internet laser beams, effectively destroying DIVX's bullshit website.
In short, unlike my local Chinese restaurant, where the owner demonstrates why he is true master, selling "robster" dishes, minus the "robster," Jordan is just a plain ole' vanilla gay asshat.
Hence, I give him the "Asshat of the Week Award."
NOTE: "The Ducati" was right.
Sanchez: I Can't Wait
In all honesty, I sold much of my DIVX position, when it last spiked. I still own a piece and really wasn't feeling this quarter. But, because I was fucking around, sitting on a mountain of cash, coupled with the fact that I was bored; I bought more of the stupid stock.
Look, long term, DIVX will be fine. However, it is a very young company with many wrinkles to iron out, before they kick ass. The product is great, the stock is a fucking trailer park.
Aside from that, you guys did it again!
Because you (the internet leech) went bearish, the market fucking poleaxed every seller in sight.
Personally, I edged higher, 0.5%.
With my money, I am pondering whether to load the boat on iiG, before earnings. Also, it appears BWLD blew away the estimates, yet again. Great company.
Additionally, I am excited over MVIS. I feel the stock will start heading higher, as the story gets out. I am scheduled to talk with management tomorrow.
Finally, at first glance, those NVT numbers look fantastic. Keep a close eye on GRMN, which will likely run higher in sympathy.
For now, the asshole dip buyer is in charge. Stay long.
Fly Buy: DIVX
Disclaimer: If you buy DIVX because of this post, the next time you go fishing, you will catch a fucking shark. And, you may lose money.
Position Updates: CLWR
15:01 CLWR Clearwire FCC Approves First WiMAX-Class Laptop Card to Be Offered by Clearwire (18.72 +0.79)
Position Updates: iiG
I'll will update, whenever I feel like doing so.
Quick Alert: Drinking Hot Tea
Quick Alert: You Guys Fucking Suck
According to my new "Fly Survey," most of you are bearish.
So, I have a dilemma.
On one hand, I feel it makes sense to reign in the horses a little, and let the market consolidate-- before putting my balls on the line, again. On the other, since I love betting against internet fucktards, I feel like going "all in," in an effort to document how little the average Joe (you) knows about market timing.
|Are you bullish or bearish on the markets? [28 votes total]|
"Death to the 1-X robots"
Fly Sell: NTRI
Fly Sell: INSM
Sector Spotlight: Hardware
Despite small pockets of strength, I sense a sentiment shift, as investors cash in their chips-- following a spectacular April.
I am in a difficult position, due to long term, entrenched, positions-- which I cannot sell. And, my unwillingness to throw a few shorts on the grill, makes me both stupid and lazy. Basically, aside from special situations, I am a sitting duck.
However, I'll have you know, I am a duck with teeth, who will bite your arm off-- if provoked.
Normally, I'd feel like buying HANS, down a dollar. Not today.
Today, I will do nothing, while the CNBC jerks dance around on T.V.-- like little circus geeks.
As for today's trading:
Certain Hardware names look good, especially HPQ, RIMM, CAJ, LOGI and LXK.
Also, certain defensive names are green, such as KO, MCD, BUD and BKC.
Basically, it's a snoozer.
Off to take a nap.
NOTE: Please take the new "Fly Survey." Are you bullish or bearish on the markets?
Look Who's Blog is on Fucking Fire
Despite numerous attempts to alienate my readership, via insults, arrogance and old fashioned not giving a fuck, "The Fly's" blog (traffic) is on fucking fire-- just like his stocks.
Other bloggers would take this opportunity to say "gee, thank you for visiting me on the internets" or "I appreciate your input, keep the comments coming." However, none of that shit resonates with me.
As you know, "The Fly" could give two fucks and a gay donkey about comments or "web traffic." If I had the power, I'd electrocute most of you, via an "interactive" keyboard.
However, until that technology becomes available, I'll simply resort to wild outbursts and violent office tantrums, whenever you (the unwashed) piss me off.
In other words, you're welcome for visiting my blog.
Monday, April 30, 2007
Election Update: Jeremey Wins; But Still Gets Fired
That's right, I'm fucked up like that.
Plus anyway, "The Fly" has more important things to do, instead of fucking around with weekend bloggers, such as: get ready for "Mother Market's" punch to the nose or make sure my trader/servant delivers warm, not hot, slices of pizza to my desk-- three times a day.
Hence, everyone is fired.
So, so sorry.
UPDATE: Not really.
|Should I Fire Mr. Jeremy? [110 votes total]|
The Offspring: Gone away
Already, the "smart people" I know are legging into QID and DOG positions.
Today, just about everything got poleaxed, as investors took profits and went to the golf course.
Personally, "The Fly" despises golf and prefers to play tackle football, with no equipment.
Regarding my positions, with the exception of WGAT, they all sucked. I believe WGAT was up because their product will be featured on Fox News tomorrow morning, regarding cool Mother's Day gifts.
As for MVIS, despite a late day buying spree, the stock succumbed to retarded selling pressure. However, I am hearing there is a big buyer out there. Stay tuned for that.
All in all, the market is likely to pause here, with material related stocks feeling the brunt of the selling.
If you are looking to put money to work, I suggest waiting a few days, then leg into your favorite stocks-- in small increments.
In short, "The Fly" is market neutral, with a slight bias to kicking old men down moving escalators. Additionally, I have ample cash reserves, which will be put to work, to buy NTRI, BWLD, HANS, MVIS and DIVX on dips.
Fly Buy: WGAT
Disclaimer: If you buy WGAT because of this post, your gas grill will explode. And, you may lose money.
Late Day Thought
Position Updates: CENX, BWLD, HANS, INSM, NTRI, WGAT, CORS, AAPL, FMCN, MVIS, NYX
Should you want more information from "The Fly" on any of the following stocks, fuck off. He is too busy drinking Monster Energy soda, while blasting his music--until the paintings on the wall fall off.
CENX: Not thoroughly impressed with the last earnings report. I sold some and will likely sell my entire position, above $50.
BWLD: I love the company and will hold my core position-- for years to come. However, I am not expecting a blow out earnings report-- due tomorrow.
HANS: This is probably one of the most undervalued high growth stocks out there. Their BUD distribution agreement should give the stock a new leg up-- into the low 50's.
INSM: Dice roll. Good clinical data/ horrible balance sheet. It's a trade.
NTRI: Compared to its peers, the stock is very cheap. If their EPS estimates are accurate, the stock should trade up to $105, by next year.
WGAT: Great product/lousy balance sheet. Should they ink a deal with a major Telco, the stock can double, then double again. In other words, it is a speculative trade.
CORS: I fucking hate this stock. However, I will ride out the housing disaster in this stock, providing they keep the big dividend in place.
AAPL: This stock embodies the market. Undoubtedly, if they deliver with the iPHONE, the stock is heading for $120.
FMCN: "The Fly's" favorite China stock.
MVIS: Great concept stock with massive potential and appeal. With an 11% short position, coupled with the likelihood that the company will partner with a major cell phone manufacturer soon, "The Fly" likes the risk/reward ratio-- at these levels.
NYX: Although I have reduced my position in the stock, at current levels, the stock is now attractive. Providing the market stays vibrant, the stock should do well. However, the shares may pause, during the summer months, as volume dries up.
NOTE: This is not my "entire portfolio." This is a small portion of "The Fly's" vast holdings.
Quick Alert: The Consumer is on Fucking Fire
See, if our bank accounts run dry and credit cards get canceled, we will steal hub caps or sell off valuable family heirlooms, in order to buy the new iPHONE or flat panel T.V.
There is no stopping us. Ever!
Today, we are seeing the U.S. consumer, with his foaming from the mouth ways, push up shares of RSH, CROX, DECK, UA and God forsaken CHS.
"The Fly's" favorites are JCG, GME and ANF.
Sector Spotlight: Energy
Already, MVIS is knifing lower. Personally, I view a dip in MVIS as a buying opportunity. However, I do not enjoy seeing my positions being skinned alive, no matter how low my cost basis is. Just so you know, I will be attending a MVIS conference on Wednesday. Hence, I will update you internet leeches, late Wednesday.
So far, today, the Energy sector is thoroughly green. Stocks like DWSN, OMNI, TTES, PDRT and VLO are ripping higher. Nonetheless, I fucking hate the oils up here and would avoid them like the fucking black plague. However, it's worth noting, I have no intention of selling existing positions in the sector.
Finally, now is not the time to start speculating. Keep your stops in place and build up a cash position. I'll have you know, "The Fly" has built up a small cash horde. Immediately following a market dip, "The Fly" will throw hot slices of pizza at his trader/servant, in order to instruct him to buy the dips.
UPDATE: NOT LOTTO: INSM
|INSM Insmed releases positive results from IPLEX Phase II HIV-Associated adipose redistribution syndrome clinical study (1.02 )|
|Co announces positive results from a Phase II investigator-sponsored clinical study of the company's drug IPLEX in HIV-infected patients affected with HIV-associated Adipose Redistribution Syndrome. Preliminary results from the study showed that three months of 0.5 mg/kg/day IPLEX treatment in seven patients increased IGF-I levels 3-fold and was associated with significant improvements in fasting glucose levels, the amount of insulin secreted during an oral glucose tolerance test, and overall insulin sensitivity. Moreover, there was a significant reduction in trunk fat and a positive downward trend in waist circumference when compared to baseline. Lipid profiles also tended to improve. Notably, normal glucose tolerance was restored in half of the six patients diagnosed with impaired glucose tolerance at the start of the study. These I.G.T patients also experienced a significant decrease in visceral adipose tissue.|
Sunday, April 29, 2007
Great Job Jeremy; Now Pray for Votes
Hence, we shall have elections. Should you vote Mr. Jeremy in, "The Fly" will force him to return next week and blog. I will make him blog like the wind (I realize that sentence made no sense. However, I felt like writing it, so there.).
On the other hand, should you fire Mr. Jeremy, I will destroy his website.
The stakes are high and my steaks are medium rare. So vote!
Vote like the people with purple fingers--you dumb fucks.
Time to clean up this place.
Seasonality in the Stock Market: Part III
As we saw earlier, the long term seasonal analysis of the broader equity markets seems to suggest that you probably shouldn't even bother to commit capital during the summer. But using seasonal analysis, we should be able to find Fly-quality stocks in any market-- even in the middle of historically lousy months such as September.
In addition to the seasonal trends of the market as a whole, individual stocks also seem to exhibit monthly patterns. For example, the price of QCOM has gone up for 16 straight years in the month of March! Other notably consistent performances include that of ITT in April, NVDA in November, and Q in December. For the upcoming month of May, both KO and MAT (which have generated positive returns for an impressive nineteen of the past twenty-one years) seem like good bets, ceteris paribus. [Note: There are lots of other great seasonality plays on my personal blog, seasonalityreport.blogspot.com. It even has a seasonal analysis report on Fly's favorite stocks. Trust me-- you needs dat.]
And in addition to Coke and Mattel, there are lots of other good seasonality plays in the S&P 500 for the quickly approaching month of May. Check it out:
[Stock]---[Yrs. Up/Yrs. Down]---[Av. Return]
ADCT---15/5----7.8%So now that I've done the heavy lifting for you by finding a ton of great ideas, I would encourage you to apply your own methods of fundamental and/or technical analysis to narrow the list down to a few names you'd actually like to buy. But do your own due dilligence, chief. I could be Jefferson for all you know! Nevertheless, you guys asked for actionable ideas, and I delivered about 60 of 'em. Can't honestly complain about that, can you?
But like I said, this article isn't intended to encourage the use of seasonal trends as an indiscriminate approach to trading stocks. Even Fly's approach is an eclectic one in which monthly seasonality reports are used only to supplement other trading strategies (such as ritualistic oatmeal consumption and the luck-bringing tradition of pushing old people down stairs). Nevertheless, as the cases of stocks like QCOM appear to suggest, the awareness of seasonal trends may prove to be an indispensable tool for both finding opportunities and avoiding pitfalls.
To learn more about the seasonality of a particular stock, visit AOL's finance homepage (finance.aol.com) by getting a price quote, selecting Performance, and finally clicking on Average Monthly Returns under Related Resources. Now you can quickly lookup the monthly seasonality of whatever piece-a-crap stock you want. Nice!