Thursday, October 25, 2007
Signs of Panic
Look at the retailers. Stocks like JCG, AEO, M, and a dozen others, are screaming for help. It's almost as if this country is full of credit card wielding fools, unable to pay the mortgage, but willing to buy that new plasma. I mean, last time I checked, there are some pretty rich fuckers out there. How could this be?
Also, the financials are at new lows, while homebuilders stand on the brink of destruction.
This whole pastiche of fucktardedness has resulted in the seasonal October "fuck you, you're dead" tape-- for the bulls. My sense, this will pass, like other swoons, and stocks will rally, with a fever, up until Thanksgiving.
The bad news is already out there. We already know how fucked the banks, retailers and homies are. But, what if the retailers post good numbers, this holiday season?
If so, off to the races we go.
If you are long into earnings, be sure to reduce your positions to a point where it won't hurt, should your stocks blow up, like CMI, BRCM or VDSI. Or, take out protective puts.
As for the homebuilders:
At some point, they will be the buy of the decade. This is the sector that has taken the most beat downs, deservedly so. However, like other housing debacles, this will pass and the companies that make it through will flourish, once people start paying their fucking mortgages again.
My best guess, the homies will become long term holds, sometime in the middle of 2008. Until then, wait for the flush-outs and short them on rallies.
I don't know what you think about VDSI but where would you venture to say support would be for it? Thanks. Danny.
pray for a strong dollar or it will be "2 gallons of gas" will be the big X-mas present, and we go to 11,000 on the Dow.
Somewhere about there they might even give up their Iphones.
the 2 month uptrend breaks with a close below 58
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