Tuesday, September 25, 2007

 

Position Update: MVIS

Before I get into MVIS, take a moment to acknowledge how superior "The Fly's" investment prowess is, compared to your own. Sure, you can site some of my dogs and say: "hey fucktard, nice call on DIVX." But, let's call a spade a spade. My win/loss ratio is about 8-2, while my heavily overweighted positions win 99% of the time, such as FMCN. Go ahead, try to disprove such "facts."

Anyway, like I said before, fuck around and lose your house, trying to short my stocks.

Now for MVIS:

I'm up over 150%, over the last year, buying MVIS (click here for proof). While it's true, bitching about MVIS @ $4.70 is almost comical, considering where it was-- one year ago.

Look, I own a truckload of MVIS. Normally, I would never buy so much of a speculative stock; but I'm comfortable with it.

My confidence in the stock is supported by its strong management team, coupled with its superior technology.

In my opinion, MVIS will be inking many agreements, with both handset makers and tier one automotive OEM's, within the foreseeable future. Eventually, there will be large institutional interest in the stock, which will send it on its way to double digits.

Also, I believe, during the upcoming CES conference, MVIS will unveil a next generation Picop that will excite people. I feel it makes sense for MOT to jointly present with MVIS at CES. Hopefully, they will not let their lawyers get in the way of good business sense.

Finally, I believe MVIS's technology will be in handsets by 2009. Considering the market potential, I feel the stock will be multiples higher than where it trades now.

What can go wrong?

Supply chain constraints.

However, should the company have an issue with its supply chain, it will likely be temporary-- no more than a few months.

In short, I view MVIS as a breakout stock in a period of dormancy, waiting for a reason to bust loose. In my opinion, by January of 2008, MVIS shareholders will get their reason.

Comments:
When is the CES conference?
 
What is the best way to stitch up a slit wrist? I am bleeding all over the keyboard after having just slit my wrists over continuing to hold MVIS, when your post filled me with regret and made me want to continue to live. The good news is tha..................................................
 
ever hear of google?

http://www.cesweb.org/default.asp
 
Naw, is it a good 'vestment, this'n hear Gargle?
 
MOT was upgraded by RBC Capital Mkts yesterday. This is after favorable views by Citi.

Asian business is improving and company has issued upward guidance for Q3.

Obviously good for MVIS.
 
yeah. I feel dumb taking my profits in FMCN at 42.
 
MT needs an intersting phone. BADLY. The CEO's job depends on it. I think at CES in JAn, they are renting a suite. It wont be displayed on the floor. But if MOT knows what's good for it, itll have a neto demo model with the MOT logo all over it. And better let in some fucking press.

And if you havent figured it out yet. FORGET MVIS. Take it off your portfolio screen. It is not a stock that will slowly climb with earnings and little PRs and a multitude of analyst upgrades and general market moves, etc.

It will SKYROCKET when they have product. Theyll sell it as fast as they make it. if they dont have contracts in hand by then, theyll sign a dozen in 2 months. Who cares.

Buy it. forget it. Pray they can manufacture it. get rich.

simple as that.
 
Fly,

Even the ones you're conceding as misses (DIVX, etc) may be more a matter of timing. If someone bought DIVX or MCHX now they will likely get a decent return from this level. Problem is people are expecting immediate returns and the market doesn't head in the right direction right away. Sometimes a company may have a good business model but the predictions of profits are a quarter or two too early.
 
LB:

Naturally, you're correct. However, most people who come here are not rational and have the IQ's of field mice.
 
Supply-chain constraints?

That's a good one. Are they short of paper for contracts?
 
Ott--

You're smarter than that.

Do I have to respond?
 
the point of my comment is that supply-chain constraints are not something for current MVIS investors to worry about.

If MVIS gets to the point that they can't make product fast enough, the stock will have soared long before.

The only shortage at MVIS right now is contracts.
 
Ott--

Not true.

They need laser suppliers and asic chip suppliers.

They don't need contracts.

Just because they haven't announced any, besides MOT, doesn't mean there aren't any more.
 
"But, let's call a spade a spade. My win/loss ratio is about 8-2,"

Wow. That's pretty good fly. It's almost 4 to 1!
 
I'll stand corrected on the facts, but stick to my conclusion - if MVIS faces supply-chain constraints, MVIS investors are in the clover.
 
Mr. Fly, should MVIS be concerned about TXN and their "Pico projector"??

More to the point, should my wallet be concerned?

http://popsci.typepad.com/popsci/2007/09/dont-publish-a-.html
 
TI's projecotr sucks. plain and simple. too big, too much pwer drain, small crappy picture. trust me.
 
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