Thursday, August 16, 2007

 

Sector Spotlight: Sub Prime

If we don't bounce today, I'm going to Romania to heard goat, forever. That's it, I've had enough. Looking at some of the basic material stocks makes me want to vomit on my monitor. Ridiculous.

And, on top of that, Hurricane Dean is looking like a real 'Cane of Death,' but no one cares. People are saying "umm, excuse me, sir, it's not going to hit the oil rigs." Well, fuck you lady, I say those rigs are glorified bowling pins, while Dean is the ball of hell (of course).

I sold my yen (stupid) yesterday, in order to raise cash-- and it's through the roof today. Mother Market has no mercy, but is no longer trying to punch me in the nose. The bitch is trying to kill me, via precipitous declining stocks.

With my money, I am ready to sell short every sub-prime/mortgage stock on the planet. However, being so oversold, I'm fretting the prospect of selling at the low. How funny would that be?

I think it makes sense to sell short automobile sub primers, such as ACF, CPSS, CACC and CCRT. Also, aside from the usual suspects, I will be looking to sell short RWT, TGIC, MTG, NCT, CHC, RDN, MMA, CSE, SF and GLAD.

Comments:
Re: Dean

All the models except one are taking into the Yucatan. You've got one model on your side, which puts it right in the middle of the GOM, and basically avoiding every landmass while getting there. If that happens, it will be a CAT 4 swirling in the GOM (which is as hot as bathwater). So root for the GDFL model if you like US coastal destruction.
 
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=13730

worth a quick read
 
What is up with RS? christ, is it a 1/1 P/E yet? why is the val so low on this co? it makes no sense...
 
More mortgage names but already heavily shorted are FED and DSL.

-DT
 
All of the Orlando stations show Dean hitting the Yucatan as per the ANGRYATTORNEY. Has anybody ever met a happy attorney (except for the Plaintiffs tobacco attorneys)?
 
However, all the models for Rita, and Katrina typically change and yaw the storm more on a northernly pattern as it picks up more momentum and energy. I am in the process of stocking up on enchiladas, Jack Daniels, and a new Browning shotgun.

http://www.thestormtrack.com/2005/09/models_shift_hurricane_rita_no.php
 
I've been in that RS shit a couple times .. stopped out both times.. took another swing this morning
 
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