Friday, November 10, 2006

 

Sector Spotlight: U.S. Dollar, Gold, Oil

Apparently, China is not too happy about the Democrats taking control of Congress. As you know, the Dems have been very vocal about the massive U.S.-China trade deficit and China's manipulated currency. For the most part, the GOP has been a big friend to Chinese business and have pretty much looked the other way, in regards to China pegging the yuan to the dollar.

However, now that the Democrats have taken power in Congress, I suspect our policy may change. Already, China announced they would be "diversifying" their currency holdings. This means, instead of them buying dollars, they will buy euro's, gold, silver and other market currencies.

Considering China currently own more than 1 trillion dollars, I'd say this is big news. As a result, the dollar has been on a decline, while gold, silver, euros and oil (dollar denominated commodity) have gone up.

Bottom line: The way I am playing this development, as always, is buying the commodity or currency outright. Therefore, I will be adding to my GLD (Gold), USO (Oil) and FXE (Euro trust) positions. If you want to own silver, SLV is the way to go. I fucking hate silver-- way overrated.

As for today's trading:

I sense the dip buyers will make an attempt to rally the market today. Already, I am seeing sharp reversals in many Semiconductor stocks. However, I do believe the market is overdue a minor pullback and feel buying today may be a mistake. We shall see.

NOTE: I am combing thru many stocks, trying to identify the ones that may benefit from a Democratic Congress. So far, I like the following: CCC, AVR, VSE, PMFG, ANDE and ITT. More to come.

Comments:
Ethanol....

Danger Will Robinson.
I can't get my head around the technology that takes more energy to produce then you get from the finished product. Yeah it will get better but to me there is better current stuff out there. I can't even day trade the stuff.

Thanks for keeping up your buys/sells with the grave warnings. lol
 
It's not the efficiency that matters. There is strong lobby power for ethanol, so ethanol we shall have.

Now, if its sugar you are after, take a look at ALCO (holding of mine). They own sugar plantations in Florida and have considered entering the ethanol business.
 
Will look at it.

I am in RSI.un (I am a Canuck so go figure). Picked it up after the proposed tax change. Paying 11% or so yield while we wait. Rogers Sugar has a huge chunk of the Canuck market. Don't think it would be much of an ethanol play though.

thanks

dnf
 
Speaking of Canadian stocks:

I own Absolute Software (ALSWF) for about a year and have seen a double.

They do lojack for laptops. Getting popular.
 
Good analysis. China has had its ups and downs but I get the sense that if this were a football game, they would be on offense and we Americans are struggling on defense. The momentum from an economic standpoint is totally in their favor.
 
One side effect of China dollar diversification (it make take some patience) is artificially higher interest rates (market driven rates). Fear alone could set a cap on bond prices. One effect would be to prolong homebuilding downturn and take some risk out of shorting these guys. On the other side, I'm long various Chinese ADRs and companies with Chinese ops. I think they get currency tailwind all next year.
 
I am long FXI.
 
one of my cynical favorites is STP - they're Democrat-supported, high-oil supported, China economy/currency-supported, darling-of-China-govt-supported and global-warming supported.

and they've been beaten down presumably with 144 overhang for a while now.
 
Damn good analysis sir. You were quick to the point and I am along for the ride as well.


DISCLAIMER: I did not buy because of Fly, aliens came down and told me to do it.
 
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DISCLAIMER: This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any FINRA broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.