Monday, August 14, 2006

 

Sector Spotlight: Retail

Peace in the Middle East. No hurricanes in sight. The Fed is done raising rates.

Good times.

Not quite.

However, the market is definately getting a lift from the thought of a cease fire in Lebanon. As a result, oil is getting poleaxed and stocks are gapping higher.

Also, its worth noting, the NIKKEI has been performing quite well lately, up 225 points last night. My favorite way to play Japan is NKZ-wt (NIKKEI 225 call warrants).

The index that looks like it MAY be near a bottom, notice how scared I am to call a bottom, is the RLX (Retail).

The RLX is bouncing off its weekly 200 day MA. Furthermore, it hasn't been this oversold since 2004. If the bulls really want to mount a sigificant rally, they have to pull the RLX up by its short hairs-- in order to negate "the consumer is dead" theory.

Bottom line: Today should be a strong day. However, keep your guard up for a reversal.

Here are some standout retail stocks this morning:
(feel free to leave some of your own in the comments section)

WFMI +6.3%
OATS +5.8%
DDS +4.2% (new high)
WTSLA +3.6%
JWN +3.3%
UARM +3.1%
FRED +3.1%
DLTR +2.6%
DECK +1.9%
FD +1.9%

NOTE:
Airlines and the trannies are up 2.9% and 1.3% respectively. On the flip-side: oil stocks are down 1.6%.

Comments:
Then when an idiot like Cramer, who has an opinion on every stock, thing and knows every CEO personally, publishes this sort of track record out at his own website, it comes back around about the blind leading the blind or the kid’s fable of the Pied Piper.

Cramers best -worse calls and you do the math in the event you actually bought few stocks that gained vs those that didn’t. On average his best picks resulted in a 19.5% gain vs 31.6% on average loss and he dares teach others?

Cramer's Best Calls Overall
Company Date Call $ Price Change
1. Akamai Tech (AKAM) 07/26 $30.00 + 36.4%
2. Gamestop (GME) 07/12 $36.91 + 22.9%
3. Southwestern Energy Co (SWN) 07/07 $29.15 + 21.8%
4. Apple Computer Inc (AAPL) 07/11 $55.65 + 20.4%
5. Alvarion Ltd (ALVR) 07/13 $5.66 + 20.3%
6. Motorola Inc (MOT) 07/19 $19.25 + 20.3%
7. ALON USA ENERGY, (ALJ) 07/21 $31.84 + 18.1%
8. Ameritrade Holding (AMTD) 07/07 $14.42 + 17.8%
9. Yamana Gold Inc (AUY) 07/10 $9.58 + 15.7%
10. Varian Medical Systems (VAR) 07/17 $43.06 + 15.7%
11. Baxter International (BAX) 07/10 $36.47 + 15.3%
12. Martin Marietta (MLM) 07/21 $76.46 + 15.2%
http://madmoney.thestreet.com/index.cfm?page=picklists&list=4

Cramer's Worst Calls Overall
Company Date Call $ Price Change
1. Openwave Systems Inc (OPWV) 06/07 $12.35 - 44.5%
2. Openwave Systems Inc (OPWV) 06/21 $12.12 - 43.5%
3. Tellabs Inc. (TLAB) 06/20 $14.33 - 33.9%
4. Conexant Systems (CNXT) 06/08 $2.55 - 31.4%
5. Crystallex International (KRY) 06/08 $3.91 - 30.4%
6. LOOPNET, INC. (LOOP) 06/22 $16.97 - 28.8%
7. Smith Micro Software (SMSI) 06/19 $15.23 - 26.8%
8. NAVTEQ Corp (NVT) 06/08 $38.92 - 26.0%
9. Advanced Micro Device (AMD) 06/07 $28.00 - 25.2%
10. Sirona Dental Systems (SIRO) 06/21 $42.50 - 23.2%
11. Panera Bread Co (PNRA) 06/23 $66.73 - 22.0%
12. JDS Uniphase (JDSU) 06/08 $2.75 - 20.4%
http://madmoney.thestreet.com/index.cfm?page=picklists&list=3
 
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