Monday, November 27, 2006

 

Sector Spotlight: U.S. Dollar

The fucking dollar needs to stop going down. This morning, the shitty greenback is marking fresh lows versus the Euro and it's bringing out all the fucking doomsdayers and giving them a chance to spew their crap-garbage.

According to these fuckers, we will all need wheelbarrows of dollars to buy bread and iPods. The U.S. economy is built on pig shit and its stock markets are 90% overvalued.

Fucking, fucker idiots.

Aside from the dollar, WMT is leading the Retailers lower, mainly because they suck. Additionally, Tech stocks are trading lower, with the exception of AAPL, as investors fear this years holiday shopping will not impress.

Relax.

WMT is not reason to sell. The economy is chugging along just fine and the mobs at BBY are as dense as ever. If we trade lower for a few sessions, I will be delighted to buy cheaper stock.

For now, I remain bullish and I laugh and spit at the doomsdayers.

Comments:
Hope you are right Broker. I feel like I just got suckered into buying at the new highs last week.
 
Broker, what is your price target for WU? thanks
 
hey that picture looks like the wheelbarrow is full of mudbricks, not dollars, but I guess they're pretty much the same thing... ;) I own a bit of RYWBX, but without the religious convictions. I think the dollar tanks some and the economy doesn't. Buy China largecaps (sans LFC)

So this is a day to just wait and try to only look at one's short positions? Wish I'd not chickened out on my ANF short - get back in here?
 
No price target on WU. I am just going to hold it, forever, or until the earth explodes.

I suppose it would have been nice to short ANF-- but I would be scared initiating one now. Maybe too late.

Although I think the selling is overdone, I can't help but wonder: Is this the beginning of a big sell-off?

Don't mind me. I second guess myself all the time.
 
Don't worry, anonymous. Don't worry about the recession in housing and autos. The talking head fucktards come on CNBC and Bloomberg every day to assure us it will not affect the general economy.

Don't worry about WMT. They suck. They're only about 20% of the retail economy. Joe Sixpack is probably shopping at Tiffanys. The problems at WMT are specific to them. Right. OK.

And don't worry that corporate profit margins are as high as they've been in 50 years. It's a given margins will continue to expand and drive stock prices higher.

And don't worry that the market has gone straight up for 3 months. The market multiple can only expand from here. You'll likely never get a chance to buy 'em lower.
 
I appreciate your sarcasm. And,you make valid points, many of which I share.

However, don't get fooled into believing WMT represents the "average" american-- it doesn't.

Most credit card bearing, starbucks drinkin', mini-ceasar wouldn't be caught dead in that helltrap.

As for autos:

Only American cars are in recession-- due to poor quality.

Finally, housing is in recession. However, I learned a lesson over and over again, which is: In an efficient economy, one asset class will replace another.

Meaning:
Stocks->Real estate->Commodities->
Stocks.

The cycle repeats itself.
 
Good point about cycles. Bottom line: diversify and don't try to time the market too much. You will get poleaxed more often than not unless you are very lucky and very smart.

The global economy is a juggernaut fueled by population growth, the greed/fear engine, and human nature. Bottom line: ride the waves or get out of the way.
 
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