Monday, November 05, 2007


Late Night Observation

Both SWC and XFML are trading at $9.50.

Odd no?

Why is JCG trading at 37? This stock should atleast be at 41. Looking forward I see no reason this should not be bought here unless every house is going to zero and oil to 120.
XFML, apples to apples comparable to prior analyst estimate:

Adjusted net income, which excludes certain one-time costs, is expected to range from $13.8 million, or 20 cents per share, and $14.8 million, or 21 cents per share.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial, who typically exclude one-time items, forecast third-quarter earnings of 13 cents per share.
Google the phrase "Odd no?" and see the first listing...

Odd no?
SWC deliberately report a loss so they do not need to pay tax. They would rather hold back and hoard metals, then sell them all.

They hold back metals, that's why.

If you are smart, grab SWC while it is cheap and while PGM metals are hot.
With XFML flying through the roof, The FLY shows no signs that he will soon quit blogging. Odd no ?

As XFML IIG MVIS HANS VMI and other FLY holdings soar, all that talk of 'quitting blogging' will fade faster than Jim Cramers hairline. Odd No ?
jj - look at the financial statements and figure out the net $ change in SWC inventory during the quarter.

That isn't "hoarding" as defined by any dictionary I've ever seen.
Yes. Twilight Zone.
Hey Boomer, BOOM is looking great man. Totally set for another run.
JJ - wake up, go over to dunkin donuts & smell some coffee

then swap SWC for XFML while they are still the same price .. they're going in opposite directions

hoarding metal? don't kid yourself ... I suppose they've been hoarding metal since thier $9.50 IPO in 1994 . SWC closed that year at $10.00. Talk about dead money .. no pulse whatsoever.

Platinum is up 500% since then ...your precious palladium is up maybe 10% .. Gold is up almost 300% along with silver & SWC is down in that same period of time.

They suck JJ ... move on already. Don't go down with that ship. Not worth it. Save yourself. Do it for your mommy.
Both at 9.50 - that's a Double Viz.
It must pain you to leave us, huh? Look at all the history we share.
It was fun while it lasted.

Now, you morons can migrate to one of my copiers.
Alibaba up 130% trading 130 million shares
in Hong Kong debut.
Shit Fly, I have to admit, I'll miss this place. What you've created would be next to impossible to duplicate. It's amazing how much I look forward to hanging out here every day.

No worries. This place will be a shitbox, when I'm done with it.

remember when you said you were going to wrek us with shitty picks and you diden't. It's like my old man he thretens to beat me but he loves me to much to kill me. If this is really it thanks for helping me learn more about this crazy stock market I'm a bbetter trader for it.

Jog on...........
Are you for real? I can't believe you are going to shut this down. Come on man tell me you are kidding. What you are going to give up on us little guys? You are full of shit.
Why would you do that?
Odd no that the Fly is a presumed 'dead man walking'?

Does it appear that the Fly is lightening his positions in a pre-turkey head fake to his minions, by announcing such asshat-type predictions?

I hope you stick around, but whether or not you do aint gonna change a goddamn thing. China, India, Brazil, fucking Argentina and Africa..the world economies are on fucking fire, and I got news for Dougie Kass and Fleck and the other asshats who preach their doom and gloom bullshit nonsense -the US is gaining some MO too now. Markets are as cheap as they've been in decades, and there's plenty of fucking opportunities to put money to work. Let the assholes try to gain their 5% on dips. These motherfuckers will be buried soon enough. Stick around Fly. Things are about to get fun. Off to drink 6th Corona......developing
Boom is looking great. I made a shit load on traders today. It bounced hard.

Broker for what its worth i like your blog and think it would be a shame if you closed it.
Fly, I can help you with the death ray.

Great summary, it's almost time to ride.
fuck yeah, cheesefries. fuck yeah!
The intranets won't be the same if you bail heavy.
3rd quarter GDP 3.9% 166,000 new jobs in October.
doom and gloom baby! Doom and gloom.
Ottnott said:

"jj - look at the financial statements and figure out the net $ change in SWC inventory during the quarter."

You made good observation, but not good point.

SWC sold less platinum than it produced during Q3. That is my definition of holding back and hoarding.

Now on the balance sheet, it shows dollar values of inventory, not ounces. Look at metal price history. On June 30 palladium was actually much higher than on Sep 30. So the inventory on Sep 30 may be lower in dollar terms but it's actually more metal. Of course by today the value of the same metal is much higher.
I'm still uncertain as to my employment status. You mentioned that my fate would be discussed late night...
I'm making a prediction.... this market will be saved by PE... look for 3-4 M&A deals before the turkey day...anyone want to make a bet Sun Capital get involved with GGC? I smell a retailer getting taken out soon... PLCE or BBW is my guess, maybe RUTH or MRT go private, and WTW & NTRI merger is on the table, this sounds like a joke.... but WTW wants a better distribution system for their food, you'll see... they have earnings this week, I would laugh my ass off
Alibaba up 160% in Hong Kong debut.

If you're going to quit blogging, you should quit at the top not at a point in time when you got your ass handed to you in NTRI and BWLD. Where's your sense of pride, man?

You can tell me to fuck off now.
Yes, the FLY should stay in blog. It's very fun to watch, here. Where do we find the fun if you are gone?

"The Fly's" level of success is measured in real terms, as opposed to internet bullshit.

Consider this:

I've made more money than you this year, despite owning BWLD from 18 fucking dollars.

That's right, 18. Look it up.

In short, "The Fly" marches to his own beat, not the radio speaker shit you have.
I hate when you get all arrogant and upset... its shows you are really just a under performing day trader (who may be a bad money manager) The problem I have with being better than you is that you'll likely find me pretentious

Don't let your insecurities get in the way of you fucking a goat.

"The Fly" is never upset.

He chuckles, not laughs, while posting internet spears.

In general, uptight people are unable to decipher tongue in cheek humor from serious "I'll kill you" jargon.

True fact.
Uh, jj, if SWC wanted to hoard the metal, they leave it in the ground so they don't have so much money tied up in the hoard.

And the 1100 ounces "hoarded" in Q3 doesn't quite offset the 15,000 ounces of negative "hoarding" in Q2.

I guess they just wanted to pay a lot of taxes in Q2.

Can't believe I'm in a back and forth with a troll. Is this my 3rd day in the internets tubes?

No more. Apologies to Fly for flinging feces back and forth in his comments.

No worries. Battling JJ's fantasies of 'super cycles' is a worthy cause.
I am not insecure, I have better ideas than you, and I drive a range rover, have a hot girl friend, and pretty much dominate life... I generally consider myself superior to most people, including people who think VMI or HANS will ever outperform SLE and TSCO
Tim ,

you are deluding yourself.

range rovers are a POS...who cares?
oh yeah, tongue in cheek humor---right

alpha puppy, i own you too

again SWC listed the inventory in dollar terms. It looks like less at the end of Q3 than Q2 but that's only because metal prices were higher on Jun 30 than Sep. 30. The actual amount of metal is more.

They produced more platinum than they sell in Q3. So how do you otherwise explain the difference? Some one steal the metal?

Well, I drive a Lexus, have a hot wife and three beautiful children.

I have multiple real estate properties, aside from my investment company, and have a net worth much greater than you, all at the tender age of 31.

Also, SLE is a Martha Stewart bitch stock.

Man up son-- get with stocks that require testosterone.

Considering I have more than doubled my money in HANS this year, comparing it to any of your picks is meaningless.

In short, I'm better than you and I spit on your Range Rover.

PS: Why didn't you guest blog this weekend?
Way way too much talk of early retirement.


I go oversea and there's talk of incipient closure?

Just because I have trouble getting internets connextions?


Let's say I refuse to believe you will allow Mr. Belvedere to dance on your grave and claim "winnings."

(And you know he will, first thing.)

Much, much too humiliating for a kid from Crooklyn.

If I respond sporadically, it's because there's a palm frond in the internets, and the rastahs are not up yet.

Carry on, One Love style.

It's not tongue in cheek when I admit despising you.
Oh, and Yaps, thanks for the affirmation on INAP. I loaded summarily today.

They beach tomorrow and I may have to cut back my allocation of Dark & Stormies to 7 come 11.
I don't know how to guest blog, I'm bored with my life... i haven't really made any money this year, I have been on the sidelines like a bitch this year because I was thinking about going back to work, but I decided against it. I don't like being over invested while I'm at work because I am never allowed to trade or I get restricted on my positions while I'm working and it sucks, I think HANS is a good company... but I don't think you can double your money from here...

Now that you let the cat out of the bag, quit haggling me.

What do you want?

How about a special link whoring to your 4th tier blog tomorrow?

I agree with HANS.

It's priced for perfection. You just starting reading this blog. I've been touting it since the 20's.

MVIS is a double.
re: MVIS
Do you have a time frame on that?
6 mos.
It will more than double in 6 months... probably triple
This comment has been removed by the author.
MVIS is hard to weight in the portfolio, I usually end up putting stocks like that in an online brokerage cash account, most of them end up being line items. I got about a dozen of them. some of them might end up working

MCGL (have 50,000 shares of this sucker)
The FLY:

Yesterday you should have dumped your XFML and buy SWC at price parity. Today SWC is up more than 50 American cents and XFML is up a very thick Chinese Penny.

The rally in precious metals are incredible! Check it out at APMEX.COM
Also short FSLR today, before tomorrow's earning's report. FSLR is a CdTe solar panel company. Judging from the maximum possible production capacity by now, they could not possible go any where near, let alone, beat the street consensus. No way.

The growth potential of FSLR is capped by extremely limited tellurium supply of the world. When they run out of the world's tellurium, they have to shut down production. Tellurium is more scare than platinum and palladium.

Call me a tellurist if you want, my favorite metal is now tellurium. If you have as much money as you boast, you can short FSLR and single handedly knock down this $12B company, buy simply spend some of your coins to hoard up tellurium. You could make 100 folds on your tellurium hoard as well. No kidding.
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