Tuesday, November 06, 2007


Sector Spotlight: Energy

I had to sell a little XFML this morning, north of $9. Although I believe the stock can go much higher, in my head, it made sense to lighten the load. However, down in the low 8's, I'm considering buying the fucker back.

In case you're wondering, I have VMI next to MVIS on my monitor, which may explain the sudden gayness in the stocks behavior. However, I just moved the fucker and put it next to RIMM.

Higher prices here we come.

How about that gold rally?

Exactly. Fuck you and your stupid gold stocks.

Within a real commodity sector, oil, stocks are flying. Right here, right now, I like SU, GHM, GLF, UPL and OII.

Also, seeing the metal stocks green, I'm betting VMI will give me 3-4 bucks to the upside, by the closing bell.

Finally, we have a rally going in the financials, specifically ABK, JPM, BSC and GS. My guess, should C go positive, we'll have us a full fledged short covering rally-- to the tune of 1.5%.

NOTE: CROX has to be cheap, no?

No. CROX will go the way of Heeley's...unless they can find a greater fool, like selling to Nike or something.
BIDU selloff in progress
Mrs. Fly likes CROX down at these levels.
Mrs. Fly play lulu like a space alien magician, no?
Did Ms Fly get out of LULU? and if so, where does she buy it back?
never second guess your wife.

i sold last 500 of my goog.

in cash and BOOM right now.
Hey fly,
Do you have any info on power levels and cost of green lasers for PicoP? Do you know if they are within required levels?
Hey are you for real about leaving?
Don't do it man this is a funny blog.
Markets about to commit hari-kari!
The FLY:

You compared XFML with SWC last night. So you JINXed XFML. You should have sold all your XFML and loaded SWC yesterday.

Don't you see where the PGM metal prices are today?

A bloody loss for XFML today. What can you expect?
Interested in shorting FSLR before the earnings tomorrow?


In a nutshell, why do you like this stock?
Woodshedder wins, for the first time (so far).
What an asshole market.

VMI crushes and gets crushed. cheap companies raise guidance and show 60% growth and go nowhere. companies at 200/1 PEs surge higher daily.

it actually may be time for Costanza trading.
alert... the shoes that CROX makes are too easily copied and sold for 10 bucks at walmart. they are plastic shoes with holes in them... why pay $50 or whatever when you can pay $10 for the same hole filled uncomfortable piece of crap? CROX is done in my opinion.
Just got an email that BOOM news is leaking...contract win or something.,.fyi. unreliable right now, but seems to be moving the stock.
CROX-CWTR - Doing FUPA coop advertising.

I call bs on the email. Will wait and see, although yesterday's action indicates someone knows something to buy into that downgrade. stay tuned
this might be the BOOM news, I wont pester you anymore:

BOOMER- You're not saying someone bought on inside info are you? Not on Wall Street. My faith is broken.

I bought BOOM last year on 10/23/06 at an average cost of 30.989.

Now that I have LT cap gains, I'm thinking about getting all out on potential "good" news, especially after a recent downgrade in the stock by Broadpoint.

How would you talk me out of selling?

(Odd question, no?)
alpha, trade your conscience, but i am holding:

1) company doubled capacity. this provides DOUBLE the top line opportunity. they are just now actualizing this capacity.

2) supply chain loosening. company has crushed earns in a tight environment, wait till it benefits from supply + capacity

3) strategic use of cash. accretive acquisitions on the horizon.

4) short squeeze JUST beginning. fracking 9M short, with less than 1M in float.

5) weak dollar helps exports.

6) amk division just ramping up GE turbines and Boeing projects

7) i could go on, but i am bored with myself.
You people that compare crocs to heelys are just plain stupid and know nothing about the company. The ugly plastic shoe you keep disparaging only makes up 25-35% of their business now.

They have over 40 models of shoes and with their international distribution, can now sell all styles in over 27,000 doors.

Heelys had one shoe. Crocs has a golf shoe coming out in the spring along with new models from their Ocean Minded acquisition. Plus apparel plus whatever else they decide to make with their croslite material. You can put that shit on anything so look for them to expand into baby products, camping products, furniture products, etc.
jt - it sounds like you work there. your company makes plastic shoes. in 27k colors, like pink, light pink, dark pink, bubble gum pink, pinky tuscedero, and, my favorite, beef curtain pink.

the shoes suck. you can strap leather to them, velvet, holes or no holes...it is a one trick pony.

crox to 28. and i will eat a crox if it doesnt.
hahahaha...boomer...comment of the century! 'beef curtain pink' is brilliant stuff.

look at the crocs website... they claim to have all these different shoes, but it is the same shoe over and over with a slight and crappy variation
Hmmmm; 60% gross margins. Yeah that really sucks.

130% sales growth from a year ago...yeah that really sucks too.

People like you have been saying the same thing for like 3 years now. Knockoffs, OMG run for the hills.

Mean while crocs just keeps selling those shoes. Over $800M worth and they haven't even started in China or India yet.

Try youbycrocs.com that's not a $30 plastic shoe.

All you do is make fun of the shoes and colors. Meanwhile Dicks Sporting Goods can't make a store within a store fast enough to sell the things. Go listen to their conference call in August; all they talked about was Crocs.

You can't argue with numbers; all you can do is poke fun which is fine. Immature but that's fine. I remember Michael Dell making fun of Apple and saying they should just close up shop and give the cash to the shareholders. Whose laughing now?
This comment has been removed by the author.
give this man an asshat award for comparing a fad shoe company to apple.

a year from now, people are going to be saying "I can't believe i wore those ugly sumbitches."
How about comparing heelys to crocs...heelys had $200M in sales and crocs has over $800M. Yeah, that's a good comparison...seems like a fad to me. Sure wish I could find a fad and sell $1B worth.

And I wasn't comparing Crocs to Apple idiot. You sure can't comprehend english. I was comparing idiots who just like to poke fun at companies because they think they know everything.

Again, you can't argue with the numbers so you throw a red herring out and see if anybody bites.
jt - you MUST work there to actually write that. i can tell you dont believe it.

ask your product mgmt team to stick an iPod in one...you, know so your feet can listen to tunes while being suffocated in a "croslite coffin" of hellish sweat and toe jam....

your biggest competitive threat is the flip flop. i would say low barriers to entry.

i am starting a flip flop applications development company. we are stapling flip flops to everything to make them "ready for summer" and other "inventions." It will be a hit. I only have to sell 1 to be up 100% in sales, and wait till india gets in on it. They have babies there with 8 legs and shit, thanks to Jake Gint's MON.

For real:

i never said that i knew everything about the company. all i know is that every product they make is ugly as shit. it can't last. it is terrible. they have fooled people like fucking magicians. so therefore, i think they are done. and yes, i think its a fad. bell bottoms did well too. so did reebok Pumps and denim jackets. they are still fads though, worn out and done, son.

that being said, i can still be proven wrong easily. And i'm not gonna short the thing.
All 60% gross margin companies have one thing in common.

They are subject to having those margins eroded by competition, post haste.

The question is not "if" but "how fast?"

What are Crocs barriers to entry, apart from brand?

Don't fall in love w. a stock.
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