Sunday, November 04, 2007


A Different Look

Oil has assumed a leadership role since 2004 and while many smart guys would be tempted to try and call a top at the psychologically important $100/barrel price level, my preference is to stick with the prevailing trend. The chart below provides a different perspective than last night's which speaks to the subjectivity of chart reading and perhaps "The Fly's" aversion to it.

The chart above uses a box size of 25 points instead of the default 10 points used in last night's chart. The larger box size reduces whipsaws and also illustrates a potential triple top at the 1500 price level which last night's chart did not. Right now the trend is directionless.

The market has a tendency to retest price levels which is why I would not be surprised to see continued weakness in the XOI in the coming weeks should the market continue to get pounded because of the failing financials. My game plan is to look for entries in leading Oil and Oil Service names when and if the XOI probes the 1400 level in another attempt to shake out the weak hands.

Alternatively, should the index regain its footing, any move above 1525 would signal a very important triple top breakout and affirm a continuation of the uptrend. In that case, refiners such as VLO and other Fly favorites should be bought aggressively.


thats chuck bennet
This is some weak weekend blogging, I vote for the Cajun to guest blog next week. All in favor, say I.

This clown shorts oil at 60 if I remember correctly and now is going long? We may have another Krull on our hands. Who the fuck bases investment decisions on little x and o's?
I. Then I can make fun of you here, where there's much larger readership, instead of over at your 4th tier blog.


I just got done with some extensive research on INAP. It looks to me like the acquisition of VitalStream will offer them a good growth opportunity with CDN. This should allow positioning to capitalize on Video streaming. There were a number of other good things about them that I see. Bad things are they must get a good handle on costs and get more consistent on their Cost of Revs. More on all of this later. Did you get any work done on it?
So kidstock, who had to die in order for you to get back into the game? Or is this school money?
kidstock has a loyal following of egg throwers!
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