Saturday, November 10, 2007
More Ducati Fun.
“The Fly of Wallstreet” has as you now know, announced his retirement from the blogging career that ran so successfully for all these months.
Why, was the arch-nemesis, “The Ducati” selected to provide possibly the only weekend blogging spot?
Possibly due to the fact that my much maligned selection on my debut and concurrently final appearance to date, was that fine performer TELOZ that prior to Fridays debacle, returned in excess of 100% in a challenging environment.
It is now my assigned duty to shed some light on the current market machinations, while possibly highlighting an opportunity that will provide a margin of safety for a longer term holding period in which we try to catch a secular trend.
This therefore is the intention. However, let me first digress. “The Fly” while injecting a certain level of gutter humour and wit to his blogging duties, also provided some interesting perspectives on the art of investing.
I have noted in the comments section, some of the detractors have criticized the methodology employed as “momentum investing” and this I suppose could be fairly classified as a form of “CANSLIM” or “GARP”.
While I believe that there is an element of truth to those accusations, they fall short of the reality. The reality is the analysis of the story. It is of course the story of MVIS that both enchanted and captivated; the story of the fat, beer guzzling, wing consuming, red neck southern fried gentleman that entertained in BWLD.
The “story” is in point of fact also known and referred to as a “Catalyst”. The catalyst is a vital, possibly the vital component, within this style of momentum/value based trading. There are some other posters in the comments section that display skills in this direction, they however lack the panache, charisma, and devil-may-care attitude generated on an almost daily basis by “Sir Fly”
Therefore the qualitative research provided identifying these catalysts is by no means easy or forthright to elicit. However, via quantitative research, we may find potential targets and ruminate upon their qualitative underpinnings. This will be the “homage” paid to “Sir Fly” as he leaves the blogosphere.
Short: Ducati's comment "this style of momentum/value trading" Isn't the term momentum/value trading an oxymoron?
Cheers, Fly. I'll miss you. Don't be making me cry girly tears on Monday 10 AM.
So, Ducati. Holy crap. I need to reread your post to decipher...
Your thesis is:
1) you were mocked because TELOZ's returns were too great for Fly to handle
2) that "Fly" is merely a momentum investor looking for catalysts
3) you imply that momentum investing is a substandard style relying too much on "catalysts"
4) then, in the same breath, saying catalysts are crucial to success and that you have uncovered hidden catalysts via quantitative research
Am I sort of getting you?
Cheese - I would say Athens is 3rd in music behind Nashville, and Austin.
Let this be a lesson to all you drain pipe fuckers: One can learn more from ones enemies than ones friends .. or he who cast the first stone, better get out his catchers mitt
Well done Doocati. Long live the Maori.
Duck - ever see 'Once Were Warriors'? .. fantastic film
1. Buy what goes up and short what goes down.
2. Buy when you are ready to puke in a freefall. Sell when you think you are Warren Buffett.
3. When a stock goes up in a big down day-buy it because GS will be upgrading it the next day and vice-versa.
4. Ducati analyzes too much and will result in multiple headaches.
Value is a slippery concept and can be defined a number of ways.
CANSLIM, GARP, both quantify their selections as value. Not value in the way say Buffett may classify value, but, they claim value nonetheless.
Coupled to that value however is an expectation of continued momentum or increasing momentum that is generated via a catalyst.
That catalyst might be corporate action, increasing earnings, etc.
It would seem that the majority of Sir Fly's picks were plays on a catalyst.....these were expressed in humourous terms via the "stories"....viz. NTRI and the fat American housewife, CLWTR, viz. the Fat mountain woman etc.
I make no such imputation regarding the qualitative results of this style of investing.
However, it relys on an accurate understanding of the true catalyst and the probabilities regarding outcomes....this can be an area fraught with difficulty as has been experienced by other weekend bloggers with their "concept" stock picks.
Remember .....I hate oil companies and skateboarding....both concept stock picks, but, were the catalysts actually in existance?
No, I have never uncovered catalysts via "quantitative" research.
What I am saying is this.....let me identify a potential candidate that fulfills a quantitative criteria....undervaluation....and then apply a qualitative analysis...that is look at some potential catalysts.
Bulls see a positive announcement with strong guidance. From the ashes of Fly on WallStreet rises a new, more "structured" forum for internet fucktards to keep track of the latest movements and musings of "The Fly"...hmmm..."The Phoenix"? A party where it's more difficult for worthless trolls and mudslingers to crash in and spit in the punch.
Bears see the end of a unique experience for traders as one of the pioneers of financial blogging closes up shop. They site the closing down of Filtering Wall Street, when Marlyn went out of business, and predict history will repeat itself...hey, shit happens, perhaps there's been a major event in Fly's life...
Well, maybe it's just wishful thinking, but Fly seems like a sharp guy - he recognizes there's something cool here and just wants to get rid of some of the riff raff. That's why I'm going long TFLY ahead of Monday's announcement. ;-)
Nice play on TELOZ Ducati, although it didn't do shit until the last couple months, congrats on hanging in there with it.
You obviously spent your academic career at the back of the classroom with your hearing aid on mute.
Save your dyslexic ramblings for your own blog....show some respect as Sir Fly leaves the blogosphere.
I missed "ducati" the first time around.
Turns out, I "missed" nothing. He's not funny, he doesn't even write a sentence properly.
He's not a funny parody, Fly.
This is shit and you are boring me.
The original persona is better. Stick to what you know.
Prediction: Fly is a union writer, and is on strike, and his fucktard union told him to shut this thing down too.
Second Prediction: Fly is a Broadway prop guy, see first prediction.
End result: Unions suck.
Ducati used to have his own blog. On that blog he posted many times on subjects and with a style that absolutely could not be fly.
With Ducati it is a subtle humor coupled with highbrow sarcasm and sprinkled with a touch of class-ism. Once you understand it, you will like it.
Plus, Ducati executed something like over 100 trades without taking a loser.
Nice introdution Grant. Well done.
Yes indeed, just enjoying my Monday morning coffee atm.
jakegint shares much intellectual ground with my great fan The Scarlet Poltroon.
Possibly they utilize the same Fish Tank stock advisory service.
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