Monday, November 05, 2007


Position Update: XFML

Who knows why this fucker (XFML) is melting higher? All I know, being long 100,000 shares of the bitch has been an arduous experience, to say the least.

The general market is bleeding, thanks to the 'sub-prime' worries.

Which leads me to my next question:

We all know the market goes up, like clockwork, November thru January. Is this the final shakeout, before the big, gay Santa Claus run?

If so, common sense dictates to buy now.

The problem, people always suspect "this time will be different."

No it won't.

In short, it makes sense to get drunk, buy some stock, then throw chicken noodle soup at your television.

NOTE: SWC down 13%. Odd no?

The Fly is God
With the right models, a share of SWC has a Level 3 valuation of $134.8 billion.
Is SWC a buy?
SWC is an even better buy here ... instead of returning only 40 folds on ones declining dollars; at todays bargain price, it will return 53 folds

perhaps tomorrow (if we're lucky) 60+ folds
iiG earnings tomorrow....will they announce the buyout fly has been looking for? lol....
iiG is a sell here.

Buy back after earnings.
The FLY:

XFML is funny. They update guidance AFTER the quarter has ended and when they all already know what's the result. What's the point of guidance issued after the facts? Could be they pop up the stock and then say sorry we did not meet our guidance. You never know.

I suffer heavy paper loss in SWC today. But this is an incredible opportunity to buy at 13% cheaper. Read the quarterly earnings carefully, you see they deliberately reported a loss, as they hold back some of the metals. If you don' sell the metals produced of course you don't have sales revenue and don't have profit. They hold back 3.9K ounces of platinum, and 1K ounces of rhodium. That accounted for $12.2M. If they wanted they could have sold all the metals and announce a result that beats the street.

So don't be fooled by the headlines. Mean while PGM metal prices remain strong. So I do not see a good reason why the FLY doesn't want to buy palladium here?

Let's see if your gamble in XFML plays out after the earnings. They still may not meet the guideline, who knows.
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