Saturday, November 10, 2007

 

BUSINESS CYCLES

There will probably be dissention; however, the business cycle is alive and well. Much work was completed by Schumpeter, Kondratieff, Irving Fisher and numerous others. Having being made aware previously the limited attention span of the average Fly reader, I shall dispense with any further references and cut directly to the chase.

The business cycle has an important bearing upon financial markets and the stock market in particular.

Cycle Stage……..Recession…..Early Recovery……Recovery……Early Recession

Consumer………..Reviving…….Rising……………..Declining………Falling

Industrial………..Bottoming……Rising……………Flat………………Falling

Interest………….Falling………..Bottoming…………Rising…………Peaking

Yield Curve……..Normal………Steep………………Flattening………Inverted


Early expansion

Technology, Transportation


Middle expansion

Capital Goods, Basic Materials


Late expansion

Basic Materials, Energy, Consumer Staples


Early Contraction

Utilities, Financials


Late Contraction

Financials, Consumer cyclicals


How then has the S&P500 performed across the following timeframes?

Timeframe…………………52weeks…….YTD……..3months……..1month

Technology……………….12.72%..........11.6%...........1.4%...............[-6.1%]

Financials……………..…[-14.6%]……. [-17.6%]…..[-9.6%]……...[-15.2%]

Health Care………………7.5%................4.8%.............2.4%..............[-3.9%]

Industrials…………………13%................11.2%..........[-0.2%]……..[-7.1%]

Consumer Staples………….9.2%..............6.8%............2.3%...............[-0.4%]

Energy…………………….28.5%.............27%..............10.6%.............[-1.8%]

Consumer Discretionary….[-8.5%]……...[-11.3%]…...[-7%]………..[-10.3%]

Utilities…………………...17.4%..............14%..............5.4%..............1.4%

Materials………………….23%.................19.6%...........6.4%..............[-4.3%]

With the odd exception, we can observe that the theoretical business cycle correlates reasonably well with reality.

Energy and Utilities have been the strongest which we would expect at this stage of the business cycle which is the late expansion phase.

Financials are currently the topic-de-jour and are in point of fact indicating that the market may well be entering the early contraction phase. Consumer cyclicals, or discretionary are also showing confirmatory movement.

Therefore we can add the sector analysis to the overall market analysis of the first post and reassess the picture once again.

Jog on

grant


Comments:
viz.
 
Holy crap, three posts of absolute semi-literate schitola.

For fux sake, if this guy isn't you, can his ass.

Seriously, Larry back on the White is better than this.
 
What the Fuck...is going on here? I need a drink. Absinthe anyone?
 
Jake:

You don't know the history here.

Ducati is my arch nemesis. Long ago, I had him weekend blog, which turned out to be a trojan horse. He blogged about my stocks, and applied $00.00 price targets to all of them.

I was so mad, he was fired and delinked, immediately.

Then, he would agitate me, via posting shit about my positions--all the time.

However, through time, I came to appreciate the novelty of "The Ducati."

He's fucking nuts and he knows it.

Seriously, ask around, there is nothing rational about him.

In short, I let him blog for two reasons.

1. Being my last week here, I though it would make sense having one of my biggest critics opine here.

2. Elections.

Viz.
 
todd: I hear it's back in the US...
 
I read Ducati got caught with a can of corn, two goats and a half empty bottle of Viz, while jogging off.

Odd yes?

Undeveloped.
 
Jake: Ducati opened the door for many third tier blogs... Thank him!
 
jakegint,

The lament of the eternal wannabe, left out of schoolyard games, left out of high school proms, never made it to college.

Ad hominem criticism really doesn't fly on the Fly's last weekend.

Try to gather your intellect into one place for one big push.....go on....offer an analysis.

Halfwit.

jog on
grant
 
...much better. Where there's a will there's a way. So here we have the right side of a brain ("The Fly") getting acquainted with the left side of a brain ("The Ducati"). Enlightenment is sure to follow.

-Jog on Garth
 
If only the last moments could be played out on the PicoP accessory...
 
Grant, do a post on your recent trading record of 137/137 successful trades (before you blew up and deleted your blog in September).
 
It's a stroke of genius having Dooucati bookend the weekend blogging series. Genius!

I watched the Illusionist last night & Fly came to mind.

Genius, I tell you.

jog on.
viz,
odd,
no?
wtf,
homo
 
I am sorry I haven't been able to consistently inject my 2 cents worth as the wife and I have been very sick. Anyway, I'm better now.

I think that I was the only one that had the balls to take Ducati on, head-to-head, viz. my post about his 137 winning trades.

This resulted in more asshattery than I could stomach and resulted in Ducati and I formalizing a truce.

True story.

And so yes, it almost brings tears to my eyes as I realize the perfect symmetry created in having Ducati be the last guest blogger.
 
I liked it better in the old days when nearly everyone was anonymous, instead of having to keep track of 10 aliases in order to tell Fly fuck you and your DIVX or ARWR.
 
MMX was right. MMX is god.
 
I just had a "confirmatory movement" after my morning coffee.

Viz.
 
Chap's,

I return, coffee in hand, ready and willing to entertain even the low-brow Mr Scarlet Poltroon, who comes to the fray with fresh ideas from the Fish Tank Advisory.

jog on
grant
 
Ducati-
After reviewing your regurged stats, I have to question the possibility of copyright infringement violations.
I'm concerned...
 
Is this what you meant to say?

http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/junior_mining.html
 
cheese,

The only regurgitation that you are experiencing is in all probability generated via your blue collar diet.

jog on
grant
 
This guy real has the time machine:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/38858-is-microvision-ready-for-a-big-fall

He used it in June. Fly is a pretender. Good riddens!
 
Sorry, um "Ducati," I don't converse with poseurs.

My advice: add syntax and grammar, stir.

(Still having trouble believing this is an actual person and not a Fly-constructed cartoon character).
 
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