Saturday, November 10, 2007

 

Enter Stage: Ducati

BREAKING QUICK ALERT NEWS: Ducati Has Returned!
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In a weird twist of ironic irony, "The Fly" invited Ducati to be his last weekend blogger--feeling he 'owed his readers that much fun.'

However, due to the old nature of Ducati's brain, he has been unable to create a blogger account, accusing google of having some sort of conspiracy against him.

So, he (Ducati) has emailed me his 'weekend work,' for me to post ("enjoy"):

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With the current turmoil in the market, generated primarily by the Financials and sub-prime concerns, where is the market?

If we compare the 1982 level with the bottom in 2003 and the current position [as of September] in 2007 what conclusions can be drawn?

We shall start with a macro-analysis of the market and proceed to a sector analysis to see if any clear conclusions emerge from the analysis.

Year……………………………1982………………2003……………….2007

Closing Price…………………109.40………………837.03…………..1497.12

Earned in year………………...$13.97………………29.41……………. $86.03

Dividend …………………..…$6.82………………$16.22……………. $27.06

Bond Yield……………….….14.30%........................3.90%.....................4.72%

PPI………………………..….100.4…………………137.6……………174.5

Gold…………………………$350…………………$340……………. $841.10

Oil…………………………..$31.56………………..$35.87…………...$95.46

GDP………………………...$3186.0………………$1075.6…………. $14200.0

Ratios;

P/E…………………………..7.83……………..…28.46………….…….17.40

Earnings Yield…………..…12.8%........................3.5%...........................5.7%

Dividend Yield……………...6.2%........................1.9%...........................1.8%

Stock/Bond Yield…………...0.89…………….…0.74…………………..1.2

Dividend/Bond Yield……….0.43…………….…0.40…………………..0.37

Gold/Price………………….3.19……………….0.40…………………..0.56

Oil/Price……………………0.28……………….0.04…………………..0.56

Price/GDP………………….0.03……………….0.77…………………..0.11

I have my own conclusions regarding the data. Of course I also have my own bias”, thus any interpretation of the data will be tinged with that bias.

Therefore, prior to any formal analysis, I shall simply present the data for you to mull over and draw conclusions.

I shall in due course provide an analysis of the pertinent information that can be elicited and possibly some opinion may emerge from the comments section, time will, as always, reveal all.

Jog on

grant


Comments:
I have it on good information that the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) has met this weekend and stands ready to buy the S&P Futures @10:00 AM on Monday in anticipation of a worldwide plunge triggered by the Fly shutting down his blog.
I have also heard that Pres. Bush, the Cabinet, and Congressional leaders are preparing to evacuate at that time for the mountains of West Virginia in case riots start to break out among the population .
 
Long live Ducati.
 
14% bond yields in 1982? Man, if I wasn't 6 years old, it'd be like shooting fish in a barrel!
 
I had a Merrill Lynch Ready Asset MMA that paid about 16% interest and took out a mortgage in 1982 with an interest rate of about 14%. Thank you Jimmah Carter for th '70s inflation.
 
I already have a problem with the data... you have chosen the a split bull/bear year, first year of a bull,.. and the Waining year(s)of a bull.

Also the 2003 GDP is missing a decimal place.

Also, I think everyone is out shopping for gold/Wheat/ and firearms for the comming armegeddon.
 
Fly,

Check your e-mail, you should have had an "introduction" also.

jog on
grant
 
et al,

Once the Fly manages to find the introduction, the general gist of the series of articles will make a little more sense.

jog on
grant
 
Classic Ducati gong show.
 
eric,

There should not really be a problem. In hindsight, we know that 1982 was the end of the secular bear market that started circa 1969/1970

Therefore, utilizing perfect hindsight we can compare the current market valuation.

I have used 2003, as that has so far at least proven to be the low from the decline of 2000.

jog on
grant
 
how about a US GDP/China GDP ratio and a USD/Brit Pound Ratio
 
and...
dear Tradercaddy
What year did the 70's inflation start? Which Fed Chairman did carter appoint? and what are the causes of inflation?

I did hear something about an oil Crisis in the 70's, but I also hear that inflation doesn't include energy.

I don't know, maybe there is a tool that one can use to look things up.
 
ducati

It's all good, I'm just trying to be a pain in the ass.
 
That's great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane,
Lenny Bruce is not afraid
Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn - world
Serves its own needs, dont misserve your own needs. Feed
It off an aux speak, grunt, no, strength,turn, ladder
Start to clatter with fear fight down height. Wire
In a fire, representing seven games, in a government
For hire and a combat site. Left of west and coming in
A hurry with the furies breathing down your neck. Team
By team reporters baffled, trumped, tethered cropped
Look at that low playing! Fine, then. Uh oh,
Overflow, population, common food, but it'll do. Save
Yourself, serve yourself. World serves its own needs,
Listen to your heart bleed dummy with the rapture and
The revered and the right, right. You vitriolic,
Patriotic, slam, fight, bright light, feeling pretty
Psyched

It's the end of the world as we know it
It's the end of the world as we know it
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine

Six o'clock - TV hour. Don't get caught in foreign
Towers. Slash and burn, return, listen to yourself
Churn. Locking in, uniforming,and book burning, blood
Letting. Every motive escalate. Automotive incinerate
Light a candle, light a motive. Step down, step down
Watch your heel crush, crushed, uh-oh, this means no
Fear cavalier. Renegade steer clear! A tournament,
a Tournament, a tournament of lies. Offer me solutions,
Offer me alternatives and I decline

(chorus)
It's the end of the world as we know it (it's time I had some time alone)
It's the end of the world as we know it (it's time I had some time alone)
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine (it's time I had some
time alone)

I feel fine

(repeat chorus)

The other night I dreamt of knives, continental
Drift divide. Mountains sit in a line, Leonard
Bernstein. Leonid Brezhnev, Lenny Bruce and Lester
Bangs. Birthday party, cheesecake, jelly bean, boom! You
Symbiotic, patriotic, slam book neck, right? Right

(repeat chorus)

It's the end of the world as we know it
It's the end of the world as we know it
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine (it's time I had some
time alone)

(repeat chorus 2x)

Fine
It's the end of the world as we know it (it's time I had some time alone)
 
Boomer-
Athens, Georgia
#2 behind Nashville for Music
 
cheese,

China will be examined a little later, possibly early tomorrow morning.

jog on
grant
 
Eric-To make a long story short the seeds for inflation were planted by LBJ in the mid-late '60 by his spending for guns (Vietnam) and butter (welfare, medicare,etc.). Nixon then introduced wage and price controls in the early '70s. It picked up when Ford was President (early-mid '70s) and his head of Council of Economic Advisors (Alan "Asshat" Greenspan) came out with WIN (Whip Inflation Now) buttons.
In 1973 OPEC and other Arab countries imposed an embargo on oil exports to US and other Western countries because they supported Israel when the Arabs attacked Israel on what is known as the Yom Kippur war. Gas shortages developed and I recall gas going from about.30/gallon to about 1.00/gall. After Israel kicked their ass and OPEC figured out they were not getting any income oil started flowing again but inflation from oil spikes was already in the economy.
Jimmah Carter came along and fucked things up even more. During his term I believe the Prime rate hit at least 20%.
Carter appointed Paul Volcker as Fed Chairman (probably the smartest thing he ever did) who then crushed inflation (and the economy+stock market) by raising rates like a madman. Thus, the groundwork was laid for interst rate cuts and the Great Bull Run beginning in 1982.
Sorry for going on, but that's it in a nutshell.
 
Guess who mutherfuckers?
 
Guess who mutherfuckers?
 
I guess Ben Bernanke. Back to the Gator game.
 
nice touch Fly, to have Ducati close up shoppe.

Man up.

Cheers.
 
So what's the mystery here?

That Fly is Ducati?

You haven't figure that out yet?

Booooooring!

Sorry pal, I love you, but this is a shit way to circle the bowl.

It's Satiddy night, you still got time to ex this "experiment."
 
Jake:

You must be mad, if you think I am Ducati.

It's funny how some of you think I am everyone.

WTF?

Like I don't spend enough time blogging.
 
Actually, The Fly is me.

Ducati is really Danny.
 
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