Thursday, September 14, 2006

 

Closing Comments

Is the market being pulled up by underperforming hedge fund managers, who are plowing into tech-- prior to the end of the third qt. ?

Or, is it because oil/nat gas is going lower, leaving the consumer with a few extra dollars to buy 52 inch flat screen tv's ?

Either way, tech stocks are on fire and show little sign of letting up. Stubbornly, I refuse to follow the herd and have resisted buying into this rally. Additionally, I do not believe oil has too much downside. Hence, my position in VLO.

My thoughts on oil is simple: If oil goes down, it will be due to a weak economy. In a weak economy, tech stocks suck stones. Therefore, buying oil (to a certain extent) should be an effective hedge versus my bearish stance on tech.

Only time will tell if I am right.

By the way, today's gains were led by the Airlines, Brokers and Chemicals.

NOTE: Barry points to seasonal weakness for September quadruple witching days.

The following stocks had notable upside moves:

GHL, BFF, SOV, DDRX, HANS, PPC, TSN, CAV, MTRX, COSI, IRBT, RIN, WOS, REV, GEOI, XNL, ABLE, GPRE, BMD, ITRI, CRIS, CTIC, NFLD, EMIS, YMI, ASTM, ACAM, LCBM, THLD, COOL CUTR, BLUD, RNVS, DSCO, GNBT, ORCC, GOAM, ALOY, ICCA, WSSI, DD, ANSW, CNVR, QPSA, HAUP, CACS, ATCO, LVLT, CIEN, TKO, STLW, SNR, GLBC, AKAM, LNOP, AGR, APAT, PWAV, FNSR, HLIT, NWK, WJCI, EGHT, GEX, MRVL, BNG, HOTT, GFME, APN, DIOD, PLNR, TRID, ZRAN, CATS, STX, RNOW, MWY, SWKS, ATVI, VTSS, ASTSF, PLAY, IDTI, UCTT, AXTI, VRGY, ONNN, OIIM, XMSR, IVAC, LCRD, XING, IIT, HCO, NURO, TWLL, CBRX, KNDL, FCSE, SIMC, QMED, QUIK, TMTA, ISIG, IRIS, ZRBA, UPI, CBJ, CTT, RWC, MEH, SGN, BRR, HW, DRL, TV, GGC, SIX and GYI.

The following stocks had notable downside moves:

FIZ, RAH, TOA, JOE, CLB, UTIW, ODFL, RAIL, PACR, PWX, UPL, WRES, DECT, NGAS, JOYG, LNG, CFK, PLLL, BUCY, ATPG, GSX, TXCO, PTR, OMNI, GMXR, DPTR, SWN, QTWW, TRGL, EPEX, WHQ, CPST, BRNC, CNX, BTJ, BJS, BHI, PTEN, ACI, HOKU, ALJ, FTO, BBG, STGN, BIVN, BDSI, IPSU, PEIX, RTI, NTO, FCX, TIE, AL, MDRX, ARNA, VSTA, PRZ, BA, LTON, WWWW, MAMA, SA, VGZ, PAAS, KGC, HL, ABX, AU, NEM, TOMO, PACW, SILC, DPW, CCBL, DBRN, EZPW, CRI, TWTR, NIS, SANYY, BOBJ, LNUX, JDAS, AEHR, LSCC, EMKR, ESST, ACTG, FORM, TUNE, MFLX, COGO, OVEN, DISH, XRTX, ANAD, TWTC, VIV, TAR, VG, MDLK, NOIZ, EPG, OMRI, INWK, DXPE, AMGI, FNET, ADAT, PGWC, ALTH, JRCC, TPO, TRE, GRB, IAG, HVT, SLW, THE, CNX, KWK, MDG and TNT.

Comments:
I'm shorting a bunch here with a mental stop set to when Dow takes out 11.6K. Tomorrow we get CPI data, so I'm hoping the word "inflation" in any breath will knock the wind out of the bulls.

Like you, I was very disappointed with VLO.

laters.
 
Stop asking why and make a bet. If it flops the wrong way - fold. Predicting bottoms is for fools not for wise guys like us.
 
Oil may go a little lower. News out of Nigeria and Prudhoe Bay point to an uptick in supply. Bears watching. VLO or HAL may slip a little more creating a nice buying opportunity. They both have upside on the next disruption.
 
Separately, wanted to say thanks for the advice on SYMC. I was ready to give up take my losses and sell. I would have missed a nice run up. Thanks.
 
CPI was inflation friendly. But 11,600 was an interesting point.

(This is the second time CPI data kicked my ass)

Semis are flat today so I'm not folding yet on this false rally. Plus the damn SOX is way overbought again.
 
Largebill:

No problem. SYMC looks good.

Gio:

SIRF looks like it wants to rollover and play dead.
 
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