Wednesday, September 13, 2006

 

Closing Comments

Today was, yet again, another excellent day for the bulls. There was broad strength, particularly in the Brokers, Trannies, Metals and Internet stocks.

I, for ridiculous seasonality reasons, remain bearish on the market and have paid dearly for idiotic short sales in SIRF. Even though I am hardly down on the position, opportunity cost has hurt me.

Additionally, I refuse to believe oil will tank to $50 and the consumer will be emboldened by "cheap gas." I find such theories misleading and frankly fucking ludicrous. The only direct beneficiary of "cheaper gas," in my zip-fast research, is PTRY.

Also, I decided to take down a decent size position in VLO and a minor position in NGAS. Reason being: Cramer is always wrong on oil. And, the fairly minded men at OPEC will not let oil dip too far.

The following stocks had notable upside moves:

BLK, LEND, CLMS, JEF, LM, TWPG, LAZ, GHL, AB, DDRX, WBD, CASY, HANS, LNY, FFEX, IMKTA, EAT, HXM, AHM, ASEI, RMIX, AMN, FLDR, HAN, BDK, IRBT, IMCL, BBI, GBX, EXPD, UTIW, DRYS, EAGL, CSX, RIV, NTG, PLLL, BQI, HOS, GGR, GEOI, UPL, CCJ, DWSN, ARD, HOC, QTWW, MPET, GMXR, GSX, GDP, EPEX, XTXI, GLBL, DRQ, TXCO, RIG, BSIC, ICOC, BDCO, BTJ, EGY, BRNC, DNE, FDG, DO, HP, NOV, ARTW, PEIX, MGPI, AVR, AG, RTI, TIE, BVN, ATI, STLD, ZEUS, ENER, HOKU, AOOR, TGC, ACI, BTU, DK, BMD, INSU, FUEL, PRB, DSTI, MIND, CTIC, BVX, STGN, NRPH, CERS, ISIS, ISRG, MYOG, TRCA, STXS, CPHD, DSCO, BA, RATE, ELOY, NILE, DIET, EDGR, EWEB, KNOT, IPAS, GROW, MAMA, ANSW, BIDU, GOOG, LQDT, ADAM, BRCD, NWK, VWPT, AVCI, TRBM, XING, CHU, ATCO, AIRN, NTGR, RCNI, EXFO, SNR, BKHM, IIP, DVW, GIGM, FNSR, LPTH, TLAB, JNPR, KEYW, GGBM, AVNX, FTGX, SCMR, BEBE, FRED, JWN, BKRS, FORD, TWTR, JCG, URBN, JAH, APN, SANYY, CONN, ECGI, BOBJ, ININ, RHAT, TTWO, THQI, RMTR, AMKR, VTSS, SLAB, GFX, COGO, UCTT, CAMT,WFR, SUPX, SMI, SIMO, SANZ, DTLK, STEC, LCRD, LSI, CCOI, TNE, DECC, CTEL, WTHN, CTLM, SWIR, TRC, EPG, ESPD, OXPS, EICU, CBEY, BWTR, INWK, RFIL, YAKC, SWHC, ANGN, UPI, BVX, UQM, EDU, PLL WLM, TPX, GPN, FCL, USG and GRB.

The following stocks had notable downside moves:

NKZ-WT, KB, NMR, WLT, CHCI, CRFT, LVS, WYNN, ENG, DECT, KFX, ENY, FPP, WAG, THLD, ABBI, BDSI, BBC, SVA, MRK, WGAT, CTRP, ICCA, RNWK, IKAN, ONT, NETL, SMDI, XXIA, ZHNE, PIR, HOTT, SFP, CBOU, KUB, ATAR, CTCH, SGTL, MFLX, MVIS, GEPT, SYNA, MU, TAR, RRI, ZZ, NGS, NSCC, NURO, OSCI, CRME, DDSS, PLC, ICO, NTY, BRC, WMG, EK, SMG, BSX and HCN.

Comments:
I think you're basically correct on oil, except that:
(1) I bet OPEC still can't control the actual rate that the members pump, and
(2) The 200-day SMA cross is very bad guano.
(3) Forget the weather.

If Cramer thinks it goes to $60/bbl, then the bottom is probably already in.
 
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