Wednesday, September 20, 2006

 

Closing Comments

Today I caved in-- covering some shorts and selling some low quality energy, in an effort to rebalance my posture on the markets.

I took profits in SIRF and losses in NGAS.

Furthermore, I started a position in ADBE, because I feel software will attract hot money, post ORCL.

Folks, the market is busting loose and looks like it will continue to make new highs. If I were to just sit in bad positions, out of shear emotion, I'd be out of business 10 years ago.

Yes, I have made a few bad calls, namely: selling PALM at its bottom, buying VLO, NGAS and shorting RACK yesterday. But, I fight on to make it all back and more.

I have been managing money for quite some time. I have seen the best of times and the worst. Being wrong upsets me, but never clouds my judgement to a degree where I do nothing. I keep moving.

In 2000, I was up over 200% and in 2004 I lost 25%. This year, despite recent pitfalls, I am still up more than 20%.

Will I be wrong again? Yes.

Will I stop clawing to get on the right side of the next trade? Fuck no.

So, in short: I hope you enjoy some of my salty commentary. I enjoy interacting with all of you and do not want to cost you any money. That's why I do this for free, instead of a newsletter.

Listen to what I have to say and make investment decisions based upon YOUR analysis not what some "Fly Buy" post says.

As for the markets: I think it kicks ass.

I will be adding to my longs by releasing idle cash and reducing my shorts. I like software and will add to the networkers.

I fucking hate energy and regret stepping into VLO. However, I will hold my butter on VLO and add on the way down.

NOTE: Despite looking like a bald cabbage patch doll, Cramer called this rally exactly right. Good job, but fuck you.

UPDATE: SLAB warned after the close. This will likely lead the SOX lower tomorrow. I still hold short positions in RACK, ATHR, SIRF and I own MZZ.

The following stocks had notable upside moves:

CORS, GHL, FBC, RJF, AVZ, LM, LEND, JEF, BSC, CLMS, SF, DRI, PNRA, OFI, WFMI, OATS, PTRY, NATH, PFCB, JJSF, EXP, CHCI, UFPI, LNY, ACLI, IRBT, PCP, TBSI, AMN, STST, TUG, RAIL, CLDN, ISWI, SYNM, FSYS, CKX, IPSU, OTD, HOKU, NTMD, KERX, NFLD, MATK, VRTX, HRT, ARNA, MDRX, KOOL, MED, HYTM, CRA, RTSX, WGAT, ARTG, MIVA, SYMC, CHINA, RNWK, MSTR, WSSI, SINA, CACS, STXN, LQDT, ECLG, EGHT, INTV, RACK, GLW, SVVS, FDRY, SONS, SILC, KEYW, AWRE, GIGM, OCPI, NTGR, SMDI, LVLT, GGBM, GLBC, NUAN, CRI, DBRN, BNG, BAMM, CHS, PIR, HOTT, PLCE, CTRN, GYMB, JOSB, CBOU, SCVL, BONT, URBN, GIL, BWS, MW, NDN, KSWS, ANN, CHU, GNSS, SWKS, ORCL, LNUX, BEAS, KNXA, TIBX, CTXS, MANH, SMSI, ATVI, EPIC, IONA, RHAT, OPSW, CRM, ELX, MTIC, LWSN, TTWO, ERTS, SAY, AEHR, MOSY, CNXT, ATHR, NVDA, COHU, TSRA, VECO, IMX, MVIS, OVEN, RIMM, PALM, HYC, GTW, UIS, GRMN, PXLW, MFLX, VSEA, XRTX, CHRT, IOM, SFUN, EMC, LCRD, CCOI, ECIL, CHL, TWTC, CBB, TALX, JCOM, MTE, NTLI, IFON, SWIR, WTT, SLNK, IPR, AWR, ATEC, EICU, TRGT, TDG, WNS, REST, CYTR, MDWV, DMGI, ADSX, MOVI, ICH, MII, PTN, SIM, PKE, CPV, KMX, AIR, VSL, ABY, JBL and NCR.

The following stocks had notable downside moves:

PDA, CASA, OHB, LEV, DRYS, OSG, FWLT, CLB, RMIX, XNL, BQI, CFK, ARD, JOYG, GEOI, PCZ, NGAS, IFNY, HOS, MRO, HOC, VLO, CNR, CRED, OMNI, DRQ, TRGL, WHQ, SWN, HAL, JDO, GDP, CAM, RIG, DNE, DO, BDCO, PTEN, ERF, BJS, STP, ABP, CPST, HP, FPP, BTU, ACI, BMD, PQ, ALJ, CUP, NTO, ARTW, VSE, EMIS, NMTI, TRCA, AVAN, DSCO, GNBT, XOM, APTM, GEEK, NENG, BFLY, RATE, HAUP, CNVR, AUY, SA, ATCO, AVCI, OCNW, NETL, RBAK, VSTH, DSTI, ESST, ININ, VTSS, QSND, AATI, BTM, CTLM, ATNI, TSU, CIG, ELP, TXU, ENSI, VNDA, GNTA, HYGS, WEDX, CONR, GSS, NAK, RAI and BJS.

Comments:
Can I get a little fuck you to the oils today too. Fucking HAL and the others act like oil is going to fucking $25 or $35 as Morgan Stanley is claiming. Fly what do you think is the bottom in oil, not asking you to call it but what do you think realistically before Iran or Chavez or OPEC step in?
 
Oil is headed back up, many think since we continue to drop day after day that $40 or even $25 oil is going to happen. What happened to all the hype just 2 months ago when oil was at 75+, that there wasnt enough oil etc etc. Now all of the sudden we have plenty of oil and everyone thinks were going back to $1.50 a gallon and 25 a barrel. I think oil goes back to 70 + by the end of 2006.
 
Add me to the angry bear list. Shit. There's a lot of high quality tech stocks out there, so I decided to cover them, and instead reshort low quality techs.

I'm done w/ calling the bottom for oil; I'd rather jump in on a huge energy squeeze.

The way I see things is that everyone that got hit in May, are now starting to break even, so any overall gain is good.

The market is back on both feet- it's time to run with it.
 
Fucking oil stocks are for riverboat gamblers.

Worst case scenario, oil goes to zero. That's right.

We'll send our tankers to Iran and say "Load it up bitches, this stuff is now free."

Or, because MRVL is going to blow-the-fucking-doors off the consensus: oil trades back to $70.

Either scenario I am comfortable with.
 
Who knows oil best? Boone Pickens might. He claims oil is going to 100. He doesn't claim to know when it will get there just that that is its destination.
 
I'm believe fairly confidently we're going to see a top and a pullback soon. The market wants to test these highs but we moved to quick to the upside to think it's sustainable.

We have not been getting much negative news and comps are good based on last year (because if you remember last year we had katrina, high oil, high natty etc.) I remember last summer retail was getting killed.

But a slowdown is looming...yahoo warned that financial ad spending is lowering, that has everything to do with housing and lenders aren't going ad crazy anymore. People aren't buying cars. They are buying electronics but that's because flat panels are getting cheaper. And since consumers won't have access to their home equity credit anymore they are probably racking up their store credit cards....again trouble.

History is on the bearish side, after the fed stops hikes, market tanks....this time will be no different. The time to go bullish is when the fed cuts, they are in pause mode now, and they still could hike.

Oil will spring back up as soon as we get some negativity come out (we have not had any in a while) I wouldn't buy oil till we see that.
 
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